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early look at Auburn

  • asteroid
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5 years 6 days ago #22134 by asteroid
6 for 28 from behind the arc.  For Northeastern today, it was die by the three.

Here's an early look at Auburn.  Sagarin Golden mean favors Kansas, but Overall,
Predictor, and Recent Games favor Auburn.  However, that may all change after the
results of today's games are included.  Kansas cruised, while Auburn struggled.
Recent Games will be the most volatile rating, while the others are quite stable
at this time of the season, but the margin is so small that small changes in the
ratings could flip the sign on the margin.  We shall see.  But the margin will be
small in any event, making it a one-possession game.  Pomeroy has already updated
his web page, so Auburn will likely still be favored.

                       Kansas              Auburn
Performance      =  +0.44                 +1.12
Inconsistency    =   9.94                 11.53
Trend            =  -0.05 +/-  0.17       -0.15 +/-  0.19
Mental toughness =  -0.38 +/-  0.23       -0.40 +/-  0.21
Offense          =  75.37                 78.51
Defense          =  69.94                 69.17
Total points     = 145.31                147.69
Scoring margin   =   5.43                  9.34

Note that my offense and defense numbers correct for home court, which
is why there is a slight difference with Greenfield's numbers below.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     AU      KU       Defensive Stats       AU      KU
Points/Game         78.9    75.4     Opp Points/Game       68.6    70.1
Avg Score Margin   +10.3    +5.3     Opp Effective FG %   51.8%   47.8%
Assist/Game         14.3    13.3     Off Rebounds/Gm       10.3     9.3
Total Rebouds/Gm    33.7    38.0     Def Rebounds/Gm       20.5    26.1
Effective FG %      54.2    52.3     Blocks/Game            4.7     3.9
Off Rebound %       31.2    28.4     Steals/Game            9.3     6.9
FTA/FGA            0.310   0.329     Personal Fouls/Gm     18.3    16.9
Turnover %         14.9%   16.0%

Common Opponents
================
There are three common opponents, namely Kentucky, who Auburn played twice,
Tennessee, who Auburn also played twice, and New Mexico State, giving us
five scores to compare:

KU   -8 UK  on road ( -4 neutral court)     KU   -8 UK  on road ( -4 neutral court)
Aub  -2 UK  at home ( -6 neutral court)     Aub -27 UK  on road (-23 neutral court)
KU   +2 Aub neutral ( +2 neutral court)     KU  +19 Aub neutral (+19 neutral court)

KU   +6 Ten neutral ( +6 neutral court)     KU   +6 Ten neutral ( +6 neutral court)
Aub  +4 Ten at home (  0 neutral court)     Aub +20 Ten neutral (+20 neutral court)
KU   +6 Aub neutral ( +6 neutral court)     KU  -14 Aub neutral (-14 neutral court)

KU   +3 NMS at home ( -1 neutral court)
Aub  +1 NMS neutral ( +1 neutral court)
KU   -2 Aub neutral ( -2 neutral court)

Three of the comparisons favor Kansas, while two favor Auburn, unless you consider
the Sprint Center to be a neutral court.  Some of the prognosticators would call
the Sprint Center a "semi-home" game and allow half the usual home court advantage,
in which case the New Mexico State comparison would be a wash.  Anyway, the average
is 2.2 points in favor of Kansas, but with a scatter of 12.0 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Jared Harper (guard)
most points        Bryce Brown (guard)
most rebounds      Chuma Okeke (forward)
most assists       Jared Harper (guard)
most steals        Chuma Okeke (forward)
most blocks        Austin Wiley (center)
most turnovers     Jared Harper (guard)
most fouls         Anfernee McLemore (forward)

                                                          26-9            27-9
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas          Auburn
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall         -1.21                          # 14   #  1     # 11   # 21 
Sagarin Predictor       -0.73                 47.3     # 13   #  1     # 11   # 21 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +1.12                          # 10   #  1     # 15   # 21 
Sagarin Recent Games   -12.18                          # 39   #  1     #  1   # 21
Sagarin Eigenvector                                    
Massey                                                 # 16   #  4     # 10   # 23
Pomeroy                 -0.84   73   74                # 17   #  1     # 13   # 23
Greenfield                                             # 16   #  5     # 11   # 16
Dunkel                                                 # 13            # 16       
Vegas (via Dunkel)                                                                
Dolphin Predictive      -2.45   73   76       41.6     # 21   # 10     # 12   # 27
Real Time               -1.00   70   71       49.7     # 12   #  1     # 20   # 21 
Seven Overtimes                                        #  7   #  3     # 23   #  9
DPPI                                                   #      #        #      #    
ESPN BPI                                               # 19   #  6     # 12   # 40
Whitlock                +2.12                          # 11   #  1     # 18   # 50
Colley Matrix           +4.23                          #  9   #  1     # 17   # 18
NCAA NET                                               # 20            # 18
common opponents        +2.20                                                                     
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                 
scatter                 

Here is Kansas' season, with potential future opponents selected from the
higher seed:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  5 Michigan State              92  87    -5.42   +10.42
HOME   # 88 Vermont                     84  68   +13.46    +2.54
HOME   #165 Louisiana                   89  76   +19.87    -6.87
NEUT   # 23 Marquette                   77  68    +1.91    +7.09
NEUT   #  7 Tennessee                   87  81    -2.54    +8.54
HOME   #108 Stanford                    90  84   +15.04    -9.04
HOME   # 37 Wofford                     72  47    +7.55   +17.45
HOME   # 59 New Mexico State            63  60   +11.04    -8.04
HOME   # 19 Villanova                   74  71    +4.41    -1.41
HOME   #215 South Dakota                89  53   +22.96   +13.04
AWAY   # 50 Arizona State               76  80    +3.23    -7.23
HOME   #163 Eastern Michigan            87  63   +19.66    +4.34
HOME   # 32 Oklahoma                    70  63    +6.70    +0.30
AWAY   # 14 Iowa State                  60  77    -2.93   -14.07
HOME   # 40 TCU                         77  68    +7.99    +1.01
AWAY   # 43 Baylor                      73  68    +1.96    +3.04
HOME   # 29 Texas                       80  78    +6.27    -4.27
AWAY   # 67 West Virginia               64  65    +5.69    -6.69
HOME   # 14 Iowa State                  80  76    +3.33    +0.67
AWAY   #  6 Kentucky                    63  71    -5.69    -2.31
AWAY   # 29 Texas                       63  73    +0.01   -10.01
HOME   #  9 Texas Tech                  79  63    +1.37   +14.63
AWAY   # 21 Kansas State                67  74    -1.41    -5.59
HOME   # 71 Oklahoma State              84  72   +12.34    -0.34
AWAY   # 40 TCU                         82  77    +1.73    +3.27
HOME   # 67 West Virginia               78  53   +11.95   +13.05
AWAY   #  9 Texas Tech                  62  91    -4.89   -24.11
HOME   # 21 Kansas State                64  49    +4.85   +10.15
AWAY   # 71 Oklahoma State              72  67    +6.08    -1.08
AWAY   # 32 Oklahoma                    68  81    +0.44   -13.44
HOME   # 43 Baylor                      78  70    +8.22    -0.22
NEUT   # 29 Texas                       65  57    +3.14    +4.86
NEUT   # 67 West Virginia               88  74    +8.82    +5.18
NEUT   # 14 Iowa State                  66  78    +0.20   -12.20            cumulative
NEUT   #101 Northeastern                87  53   +11.28   +22.72            probability
NEUT   # 11 Auburn                                -0.73             0.473   0.473
NEUT   #  4 North Carolina                        -5.91             0.286   0.135
NEUT   #  6 Kentucky                              -2.56             0.412   0.056
NEUT   #  3 Virginia                              -6.90             0.255   0.014
NEUT   #  1 Duke                                  -7.98             0.223   0.003

Here is Auburn's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #207 South Alabama              101  58   +23.30   +19.70
HOME   # 49 Washington                  88  66   +10.14   +11.86
Div2        Mississippi College        103  52
NEUT   # 58 Xavier-Ohio                 88  79    +8.56    +0.44
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        72  78    -7.25    +1.25
NEUT   # 63 Arizona                     73  57    +8.88    +7.12
HOME   #307 Saint Peter's               99  49   +29.43   +20.57
HOME   #344 NC Asheville                67  41   +36.12   -10.12
HOME   # 66 Dayton                      82  72   +12.64    -2.64
NEUT   #150 UAB                         75  71   +16.32   -12.32
AWAY   # 25 NC State                    71  78    +0.06    -7.06
HOME   # 57 Murray State                93  88   +11.59    -6.59
HOME   #202 North Florida(UNF)          95  49   +23.08   +22.92
AWAY   # 44 Mississippi                 67  82    +3.19   -18.19
HOME   #100 Georgia                     93  78   +15.03    -0.03
AWAY   # 76 Texas A&M                   85  66    +7.00   +12.00
HOME   #  6 Kentucky                    80  82    +1.30    -3.30
AWAY   # 70 South Carolina              77  80    +6.65    -9.65
AWAY   # 24 Mississippi State           84  92    -0.38    -7.62
HOME   # 72 Missouri                    92  58   +13.10   +20.90
HOME   # 54 Alabama                     84  63   +11.08    +9.92
HOME   # 27 Florida                     76  62    +6.78    +7.22
AWAY   # 22 LSU                         78  83    -0.50    -4.50
HOME   # 44 Mississippi                 55  60    +9.45   -14.45
AWAY   #111 Vanderbilt                  64  53    +9.81    +1.19
HOME   # 51 Arkansas                    79  56   +10.37   +12.63
AWAY   #  6 Kentucky                    53  80    -4.96   -22.04
AWAY   #100 Georgia                     78  75    +8.77    -5.77
HOME   # 24 Mississippi State           80  75    +5.88    -0.88
AWAY   # 54 Alabama                     66  60    +4.82    +1.18
HOME   #  7 Tennessee                   84  80    +1.32    +2.68
NEUT   # 72 Missouri                    81  71    +9.97    +0.03
NEUT   # 70 South Carolina              73  64    +9.78    -0.78
NEUT   # 27 Florida                     65  62    +3.65    -0.65
NEUT   #  7 Tennessee                   84  64    -1.81   +21.81
NEUT   # 59 New Mexico State            78  77    +8.64    -7.64
NEUT   # 13 Kansas                                +0.73             0.527
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5 years 6 days ago #22140 by CorpusJayhawk
I just updated my DPPI excluding the 4 final games of the day. KU jumped to 21st overall (from 24th) with the nice win over Northeastern. The DPPI line is Auburn by 1.2 with KU having a 45.1% probability of winning. Incidentally, the 34 point Northeastern win was 23.3 points above projection making it the best KU game of the season, topping the Wofford game which was 20.7 points above expectation. Let's hope that means they are peaking at the perfect time.

Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
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