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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
early look at Auburn
- asteroid
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5 years 6 days ago #22134
by asteroid
6 for 28 from behind the arc. For Northeastern today, it was die by the three.
Here's an early look at Auburn. Sagarin Golden mean favors Kansas, but Overall,
Predictor, and Recent Games favor Auburn. However, that may all change after the
results of today's games are included. Kansas cruised, while Auburn struggled.
Recent Games will be the most volatile rating, while the others are quite stable
at this time of the season, but the margin is so small that small changes in the
ratings could flip the sign on the margin. We shall see. But the margin will be
small in any event, making it a one-possession game. Pomeroy has already updated
his web page, so Auburn will likely still be favored.
Kansas Auburn
Performance = +0.44 +1.12
Inconsistency = 9.94 11.53
Trend = -0.05 +/- 0.17 -0.15 +/- 0.19
Mental toughness = -0.38 +/- 0.23 -0.40 +/- 0.21
Offense = 75.37 78.51
Defense = 69.94 69.17
Total points = 145.31 147.69
Scoring margin = 5.43 9.34
Note that my offense and defense numbers correct for home court, which
is why there is a slight difference with Greenfield's numbers below.
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats AU KU Defensive Stats AU KU
Points/Game 78.9 75.4 Opp Points/Game 68.6 70.1
Avg Score Margin +10.3 +5.3 Opp Effective FG % 51.8% 47.8%
Assist/Game 14.3 13.3 Off Rebounds/Gm 10.3 9.3
Total Rebouds/Gm 33.7 38.0 Def Rebounds/Gm 20.5 26.1
Effective FG % 54.2 52.3 Blocks/Game 4.7 3.9
Off Rebound % 31.2 28.4 Steals/Game 9.3 6.9
FTA/FGA 0.310 0.329 Personal Fouls/Gm 18.3 16.9
Turnover % 14.9% 16.0%
Common Opponents
================
There are three common opponents, namely Kentucky, who Auburn played twice,
Tennessee, who Auburn also played twice, and New Mexico State, giving us
five scores to compare:
KU -8 UK on road ( -4 neutral court) KU -8 UK on road ( -4 neutral court)
Aub -2 UK at home ( -6 neutral court) Aub -27 UK on road (-23 neutral court)
KU +2 Aub neutral ( +2 neutral court) KU +19 Aub neutral (+19 neutral court)
KU +6 Ten neutral ( +6 neutral court) KU +6 Ten neutral ( +6 neutral court)
Aub +4 Ten at home ( 0 neutral court) Aub +20 Ten neutral (+20 neutral court)
KU +6 Aub neutral ( +6 neutral court) KU -14 Aub neutral (-14 neutral court)
KU +3 NMS at home ( -1 neutral court)
Aub +1 NMS neutral ( +1 neutral court)
KU -2 Aub neutral ( -2 neutral court)
Three of the comparisons favor Kansas, while two favor Auburn, unless you consider
the Sprint Center to be a neutral court. Some of the prognosticators would call
the Sprint Center a "semi-home" game and allow half the usual home court advantage,
in which case the New Mexico State comparison would be a wash. Anyway, the average
is 2.2 points in favor of Kansas, but with a scatter of 12.0 points.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Jared Harper (guard)
most points Bryce Brown (guard)
most rebounds Chuma Okeke (forward)
most assists Jared Harper (guard)
most steals Chuma Okeke (forward)
most blocks Austin Wiley (center)
most turnovers Jared Harper (guard)
most fouls Anfernee McLemore (forward)
26-9 27-9
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Auburn
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============= =============
Sagarin Overall -1.21 # 14 # 1 # 11 # 21
Sagarin Predictor -0.73 47.3 # 13 # 1 # 11 # 21
Sagarin Golden Mean +1.12 # 10 # 1 # 15 # 21
Sagarin Recent Games -12.18 # 39 # 1 # 1 # 21
Sagarin Eigenvector
Massey # 16 # 4 # 10 # 23
Pomeroy -0.84 73 74 # 17 # 1 # 13 # 23
Greenfield # 16 # 5 # 11 # 16
Dunkel # 13 # 16
Vegas (via Dunkel)
Dolphin Predictive -2.45 73 76 41.6 # 21 # 10 # 12 # 27
Real Time -1.00 70 71 49.7 # 12 # 1 # 20 # 21
Seven Overtimes # 7 # 3 # 23 # 9
DPPI # # # #
ESPN BPI # 19 # 6 # 12 # 40
Whitlock +2.12 # 11 # 1 # 18 # 50
Colley Matrix +4.23 # 9 # 1 # 17 # 18
NCAA NET # 20 # 18
common opponents +2.20
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average
scatter
Here is Kansas' season, with potential future opponents selected from the
higher seed:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 5 Michigan State 92 87 -5.42 +10.42
HOME # 88 Vermont 84 68 +13.46 +2.54
HOME #165 Louisiana 89 76 +19.87 -6.87
NEUT # 23 Marquette 77 68 +1.91 +7.09
NEUT # 7 Tennessee 87 81 -2.54 +8.54
HOME #108 Stanford 90 84 +15.04 -9.04
HOME # 37 Wofford 72 47 +7.55 +17.45
HOME # 59 New Mexico State 63 60 +11.04 -8.04
HOME # 19 Villanova 74 71 +4.41 -1.41
HOME #215 South Dakota 89 53 +22.96 +13.04
AWAY # 50 Arizona State 76 80 +3.23 -7.23
HOME #163 Eastern Michigan 87 63 +19.66 +4.34
HOME # 32 Oklahoma 70 63 +6.70 +0.30
AWAY # 14 Iowa State 60 77 -2.93 -14.07
HOME # 40 TCU 77 68 +7.99 +1.01
AWAY # 43 Baylor 73 68 +1.96 +3.04
HOME # 29 Texas 80 78 +6.27 -4.27
AWAY # 67 West Virginia 64 65 +5.69 -6.69
HOME # 14 Iowa State 80 76 +3.33 +0.67
AWAY # 6 Kentucky 63 71 -5.69 -2.31
AWAY # 29 Texas 63 73 +0.01 -10.01
HOME # 9 Texas Tech 79 63 +1.37 +14.63
AWAY # 21 Kansas State 67 74 -1.41 -5.59
HOME # 71 Oklahoma State 84 72 +12.34 -0.34
AWAY # 40 TCU 82 77 +1.73 +3.27
HOME # 67 West Virginia 78 53 +11.95 +13.05
AWAY # 9 Texas Tech 62 91 -4.89 -24.11
HOME # 21 Kansas State 64 49 +4.85 +10.15
AWAY # 71 Oklahoma State 72 67 +6.08 -1.08
AWAY # 32 Oklahoma 68 81 +0.44 -13.44
HOME # 43 Baylor 78 70 +8.22 -0.22
NEUT # 29 Texas 65 57 +3.14 +4.86
NEUT # 67 West Virginia 88 74 +8.82 +5.18
NEUT # 14 Iowa State 66 78 +0.20 -12.20 cumulative
NEUT #101 Northeastern 87 53 +11.28 +22.72 probability
NEUT # 11 Auburn -0.73 0.473 0.473
NEUT # 4 North Carolina -5.91 0.286 0.135
NEUT # 6 Kentucky -2.56 0.412 0.056
NEUT # 3 Virginia -6.90 0.255 0.014
NEUT # 1 Duke -7.98 0.223 0.003
Here is Auburn's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #207 South Alabama 101 58 +23.30 +19.70
HOME # 49 Washington 88 66 +10.14 +11.86
Div2 Mississippi College 103 52
NEUT # 58 Xavier-Ohio 88 79 +8.56 +0.44
NEUT # 1 Duke 72 78 -7.25 +1.25
NEUT # 63 Arizona 73 57 +8.88 +7.12
HOME #307 Saint Peter's 99 49 +29.43 +20.57
HOME #344 NC Asheville 67 41 +36.12 -10.12
HOME # 66 Dayton 82 72 +12.64 -2.64
NEUT #150 UAB 75 71 +16.32 -12.32
AWAY # 25 NC State 71 78 +0.06 -7.06
HOME # 57 Murray State 93 88 +11.59 -6.59
HOME #202 North Florida(UNF) 95 49 +23.08 +22.92
AWAY # 44 Mississippi 67 82 +3.19 -18.19
HOME #100 Georgia 93 78 +15.03 -0.03
AWAY # 76 Texas A&M 85 66 +7.00 +12.00
HOME # 6 Kentucky 80 82 +1.30 -3.30
AWAY # 70 South Carolina 77 80 +6.65 -9.65
AWAY # 24 Mississippi State 84 92 -0.38 -7.62
HOME # 72 Missouri 92 58 +13.10 +20.90
HOME # 54 Alabama 84 63 +11.08 +9.92
HOME # 27 Florida 76 62 +6.78 +7.22
AWAY # 22 LSU 78 83 -0.50 -4.50
HOME # 44 Mississippi 55 60 +9.45 -14.45
AWAY #111 Vanderbilt 64 53 +9.81 +1.19
HOME # 51 Arkansas 79 56 +10.37 +12.63
AWAY # 6 Kentucky 53 80 -4.96 -22.04
AWAY #100 Georgia 78 75 +8.77 -5.77
HOME # 24 Mississippi State 80 75 +5.88 -0.88
AWAY # 54 Alabama 66 60 +4.82 +1.18
HOME # 7 Tennessee 84 80 +1.32 +2.68
NEUT # 72 Missouri 81 71 +9.97 +0.03
NEUT # 70 South Carolina 73 64 +9.78 -0.78
NEUT # 27 Florida 65 62 +3.65 -0.65
NEUT # 7 Tennessee 84 64 -1.81 +21.81
NEUT # 59 New Mexico State 78 77 +8.64 -7.64
NEUT # 13 Kansas +0.73 0.527
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- CorpusJayhawk
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5 years 6 days ago #22140
by CorpusJayhawk
Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
I just updated my DPPI excluding the 4 final games of the day. KU jumped to 21st overall (from 24th) with the nice win over Northeastern. The DPPI line is Auburn by 1.2 with KU having a 45.1% probability of winning. Incidentally, the 34 point Northeastern win was 23.3 points above projection making it the best KU game of the season, topping the Wofford game which was 20.7 points above expectation. Let's hope that means they are peaking at the perfect time.
Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, gorillahawk, newtonhawk
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