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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Northeastern game
- asteroid
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5 years 1 week ago #22105
by asteroid
On paper, it's the easiest game since the last non-conference game.
But it's March Madness. Anything can happen. And in this particular
case, it could very well be another one of those "Live by the three,
die by the three" cases.
The most difficult opponent Northeastern has played this season is
Virginia Tech, and they lost by 28 on a neutral court. The second-most
difficult opponent is Syracuse, and they lost by 23 on the road. The
highest rated opponent they beat is Alabama, and by 16 points on a
neutral court. Four times the Huskies have played above expectation by
more than the 11.3 point margin in favor of Kansas. That's out of 33
games, for a 12 percent chance of winning. Similarly, four times the
Jayhawks have played more than 11.3 points below expectation, which
would be enough to lose. That's out of 34 games, also around a 12
percent chance of losing.
Colley is the most optimistic of the bunch at 17.3 points, but that
scaling issue could well be responsible. Sagarin's eigenvector analysis
is the next most optimistic at 15 points. Real Time is the pessimist
at just 2 points, but I had to manually select Kansas versus Northeastern
in Real Time's web site, because the Kansas page shows the Jayhawks playing
Northwestern. Sigh. Any wonder why I think Real Time isn't ready for
Prime Time? The average of the 17 prognosticators (no DPPI prediction as
of the time of writing) is 9.1 points. Coincidentally, the average error
in the predicted margin during the conference season by the best of the
bunch was 9.1 points. Definitely no slam-dunk here. Welcome to the life
of a 4 seed.
Kansas Northeastern
Performance = -0.22 +0.07
Inconsistency = 9.29 10.12
Trend = -0.17 +/- 0.16 0.19 +/- 0.18
Mental toughness = -0.32 +/- 0.22 0.06 +/- 0.25
Offense = 75.03 76.03
Defense = 70.44 70.64
Total points = 145.47 146.67
Scoring margin = 4.59 5.39
Note that my offense and defense numbers correct for home court, which
is why there is a slight difference with Greenfield's numbers below.
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats NE KU Defensive Stats NE KU
Points/Game 76.1 75.4 Opp Points/Game 70.3 70.1
Avg Score Margin +5.8 +5.3 Opp Effective FG % 51.8% 47.8%
Assist/Game 14.3 13.3 Off Rebounds/Gm 6.1 9.3
Total Rebouds/Gm 31.8 38.0 Def Rebounds/Gm 23.7 26.1
Effective FG % 57.2 52.3 Blocks/Game 2.2 3.9
Off Rebound % 21.3 28.4 Steals/Game 6.2 6.9
FTA/FGA 0.343 0.329 Personal Fouls/Gm 16.0 16.9
Turnover % 15.1% 16.0%
Common Opponents
================
There are two common opponents, namely Eastern Michigan and Vermont, giving us
two scores to compare:
KU +24 EMU at home (+20 neutral court)
NE +14 EMU at home (+10 neutral court)
KU +10 NE neutral (+10 neutral court)
KU +16 Ver at home (+12 neutral court)
NE -5 Ver on road ( -1 neutral court)
KU +13 NE neutral (+13 neutral court)
Both comparisons favor Kansas, with the average being 11.5 points.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Vasa Pusica (guard)
most points Vasa Pusica (guard)
most rebounds Bolden Brace (guard)
most assists Vasa Pusica (guard)
most steals Vasa Pusica (guard)
most blocks Anthony Green (center)
most turnovers Vasa Pusica (guard)
most fouls Shawn Occeus (guard)
Northeastern is a bit one-dimensional. Control Pusica and you should control the
game. Guard Shaquille Walters has missed the last five games with an undisclosed
problem; his status for the Kansas game isn't known at this time; he is eighth on
the team in terms of minutes played, so represents a reserve who plays a bit more
than Lightfoot and a bit less than Moore. Guard Maxime Boursiquot is out for the
season with a hip injury.
25-9 23-10
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Northeastern
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============= =============
Sagarin Overall +10.49 79 69 # 14 # 1 # 96 #164
Sagarin Predictor +11.28 79 68 87.7 # 13 # 1 #101 #164
Sagarin Golden Mean +11.38 79 68 # 10 # 1 # 86 #164
Sagarin Recent Games +2.91 75 72 # 37 # 1 # 56 #164
Sagarin Eigenvector +14.98 81 66 89
Massey +8.00 77 69 78 # 16 # 4 # 72 #113
Pomeroy +8.12 75 67 # 20 # 1 # 79 #164
Greenfield +7.00 75.5 68.5 # 16 # 5 # 83 #104
Dunkel +3.00 68.5 65.5 # 13 # 84
Vegas (via Dunkel) +6.50 75 68
Dolphin Predictive +9.14 77.5 68 78.7 # 20 # 10 # 93 #128
Real Time +2.00 71 69 55.4 # 12 # 1 # 52 #116
Seven Overtimes +6.00 76 70 77 # 7 # 3 # 51 #139
DPPI . # # # #
ESPN BPI +11.30 85.0 # 19 # 2 # 80 #129
Whitlock +13.49 # 11 # 1 # 94 #120
Colley Matrix +17.34 # 9 # 1 # 73 #136
NCAA NET # 20 # 78
common opponents +11.50
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +9.08 76.0 68.3
scatter 4.28 3.4 1.7
Here is Kansas' season, with potential future opponents selected from the
higher seed:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 5 Michigan State 92 87 -5.41 +10.41
HOME # 88 Vermont 84 68 +13.46 +2.54
HOME #165 Louisiana 89 76 +19.87 -6.87
NEUT # 23 Marquette 77 68 +1.91 +7.09
NEUT # 7 Tennessee 87 81 -2.53 +8.53
HOME #108 Stanford 90 84 +15.04 -9.04
HOME # 37 Wofford 72 47 +7.55 +17.45
HOME # 59 New Mexico State 63 60 +11.04 -8.04
HOME # 19 Villanova 74 71 +4.40 -1.40
HOME #215 South Dakota 89 53 +22.96 +13.04
AWAY # 50 Arizona State 76 80 +3.23 -7.23
HOME #163 Eastern Michigan 87 63 +19.66 +4.34
HOME # 32 Oklahoma 70 63 +6.69 +0.31
AWAY # 14 Iowa State 60 77 -2.94 -14.06
HOME # 40 TCU 77 68 +7.99 +1.01
AWAY # 43 Baylor 73 68 +1.96 +3.04
HOME # 29 Texas 80 78 +6.27 -4.27
AWAY # 67 West Virginia 64 65 +5.68 -6.68
HOME # 14 Iowa State 80 76 +3.32 +0.68
AWAY # 6 Kentucky 63 71 -5.70 -2.30
AWAY # 29 Texas 63 73 +0.01 -10.01
HOME # 9 Texas Tech 79 63 +1.37 +14.63
AWAY # 21 Kansas State 67 74 -1.42 -5.58
HOME # 71 Oklahoma State 84 72 +12.33 -0.33
AWAY # 40 TCU 82 77 +1.73 +3.27
HOME # 67 West Virginia 78 53 +11.94 +13.06
AWAY # 9 Texas Tech 62 91 -4.89 -24.11
HOME # 21 Kansas State 64 49 +4.84 +10.16
AWAY # 71 Oklahoma State 72 67 +6.07 -1.07
AWAY # 32 Oklahoma 68 81 +0.43 -13.43
HOME # 43 Baylor 78 70 +8.22 -0.22
NEUT # 29 Texas 65 57 +3.14 +4.86
NEUT # 67 West Virginia 88 74 +8.81 +5.19 cumulative
NEUT # 14 Iowa State 66 78 +0.19 -12.19 probability
NEUT #101 Northeastern +11.27 0.877 0.877
NEUT # 11 Auburn -0.73 0.471 0.413
NEUT # 4 North Carolina -5.92 0.280 0.116
NEUT # 6 Kentucky -2.57 0.409 0.047
NEUT # 3 Virginia -6.90 0.249 0.012
NEUT # 1 Duke -7.98 0.217 0.003
Here is Northeastern's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #229 Boston U. 74 77 +12.66 -15.66
AWAY #129 Harvard 81 71 -0.92 +10.92
NEUT # 54 Alabama 68 52 -4.05 +20.05
NEUT # 12 Virginia Tech 60 88 -11.40 -16.60
NEUT # 80 Davidson 59 71 -1.63 -10.37
HOME # 80 Davidson 69 78 +1.50 -10.50
AWAY #147 Bucknell 96 78 +0.78 +17.22
HOME #163 Eastern Michigan 81 67 +8.39 +5.61
AWAY # 33 Syracuse 49 72 -10.82 -12.18
HOME #185 Oakland-Mich. 92 83 +10.01 -1.01
AWAY # 88 Vermont 70 75 -4.07 -0.93
HOME #125 St. Bonaventure 64 59 +5.08 -0.08
HOME #240 Drexel 93 83 +13.37 -3.37
HOME #244 Delaware 80 82 +13.85 -15.85
AWAY #106 Hofstra 72 75 -2.83 -0.17
AWAY #303 Elon 81 70 +10.91 +0.09
AWAY #205 William & Mary 90 70 +4.96 +15.04
HOME #130 College of Charleston 69 60 +5.37 +3.63
HOME #253 NC Wilmington 88 71 +14.26 +2.74
AWAY #272 Towson 72 75 +8.97 -11.97
AWAY #261 James Madison 78 68 +8.39 +1.61
HOME #106 Hofstra 75 61 +3.43 +10.57
HOME #205 William & Mary 72 60 +11.22 +0.78
HOME #303 Elon 72 70 +17.17 -15.17
AWAY #253 NC Wilmington 81 77 +8.00 -4.00
AWAY #130 College of Charleston 79 88 -0.89 -8.11
HOME #261 James Madison 76 60 +14.65 +1.35
HOME #272 Towson 73 58 +15.23 -0.23
AWAY #244 Delaware 75 64 +7.59 +3.41
AWAY #240 Drexel 90 66 +7.11 +16.89
NEUT #253 NC Wilmington 80 59 +11.13 +9.87
NEUT #130 College of Charleston 70 67 +2.24 +0.76
NEUT #106 Hofstra 82 74 +0.30 +7.70
NEUT # 13 Kansas -11.27 0.123
The following user(s) said Thank You: konza63, JRhawk, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, LadyHawk, gorillahawk, wardhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk and this user have 2 others thankyou
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- JRhawk
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5 years 1 week ago #22108
by JRhawk
Thanks, asteroid. Quite a moon overnight. Got a chuckle at your Real Time comment - makes one wonder. Hope the Jayhawks come out hot and never look back.
KU doesn't have to worry about meeting pundit expectations this year - see ESPN's 29 contributor list and zero have KU making the FF.
KU doesn't have to worry about meeting pundit expectations this year - see ESPN's 29 contributor list and zero have KU making the FF.
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5 years 1 week ago #22111
by NotOstertag
"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
Since we're now potentially playing for the last time this season with every game, I want to take a moment for thanking you once again for your contributions to the board. I have to admit that I can't digest 100% of what you write with every game, I DO check 100% of the time and at least grab the highlights.
Your consistent and thorough analysis is welcome and appreciated, so thanks for providing it.
Your consistent and thorough analysis is welcome and appreciated, so thanks for providing it.
"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
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- konza63
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5 years 1 week ago #22119
by konza63
“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”
1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
Hear, hear! Thank you, Asteroid! You rock. (No pun intended)
“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”
1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
The following user(s) said Thank You: gorillahawk, Wheatstate Gal
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