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predictions for Northeastern game

  • asteroid
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5 years 1 week ago #22105 by asteroid
On paper, it's the easiest game since the last non-conference game.
But it's March Madness.  Anything can happen.  And in this particular
case, it could very well be another one of those "Live by the three,
die by the three" cases.

The most difficult opponent Northeastern has played this season is
Virginia Tech, and they lost by 28 on a neutral court.  The second-most
difficult opponent is Syracuse, and they lost by 23 on the road.  The
highest rated opponent they beat is Alabama, and by 16 points on a
neutral court.  Four times the Huskies have played above expectation by
more than the 11.3 point margin in favor of Kansas.  That's out of 33
games, for a 12 percent chance of winning.  Similarly, four times the
Jayhawks have played more than 11.3 points below expectation, which
would be enough to lose.  That's out of 34 games, also around a 12
percent chance of losing.

Colley is the most optimistic of the bunch at 17.3 points, but that
scaling issue could well be responsible.  Sagarin's eigenvector analysis
is the next most optimistic at 15 points.  Real Time is the pessimist
at just 2 points, but I had to manually select Kansas versus Northeastern
in Real Time's web site, because the Kansas page shows the Jayhawks playing
Northwestern.  Sigh.  Any wonder why I think Real Time isn't ready for
Prime Time?  The average of the 17 prognosticators (no DPPI prediction as
of the time of writing) is 9.1 points.  Coincidentally, the average error
in the predicted margin during the conference season by the best of the
bunch was 9.1 points.  Definitely no slam-dunk here.  Welcome to the life
of a 4 seed.

                       Kansas               Northeastern
Performance      =  -0.22                 +0.07
Inconsistency    =   9.29                 10.12
Trend            =  -0.17 +/-  0.16        0.19 +/-  0.18
Mental toughness =  -0.32 +/-  0.22        0.06 +/-  0.25
Offense          =  75.03                 76.03
Defense          =  70.44                 70.64
Total points     = 145.47                146.67
Scoring margin   =   4.59                  5.39

Note that my offense and defense numbers correct for home court, which
is why there is a slight difference with Greenfield's numbers below.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     NE      KU       Defensive Stats       NE      KU
Points/Game         76.1    75.4     Opp Points/Game       70.3    70.1
Avg Score Margin    +5.8    +5.3     Opp Effective FG %   51.8%   47.8%
Assist/Game         14.3    13.3     Off Rebounds/Gm        6.1     9.3
Total Rebouds/Gm    31.8    38.0     Def Rebounds/Gm       23.7    26.1
Effective FG %      57.2    52.3     Blocks/Game            2.2     3.9
Off Rebound %       21.3    28.4     Steals/Game            6.2     6.9
FTA/FGA            0.343   0.329     Personal Fouls/Gm     16.0    16.9
Turnover %         15.1%   16.0%

Common Opponents
================
There are two common opponents, namely Eastern Michigan and Vermont, giving us
two scores to compare:

KU  +24 EMU at home (+20 neutral court)
NE  +14 EMU at home (+10 neutral court)
KU  +10 NE  neutral (+10 neutral court)

KU  +16 Ver at home (+12 neutral court)
NE   -5 Ver on road ( -1 neutral court)
KU  +13 NE  neutral (+13 neutral court)

Both comparisons favor Kansas, with the average being 11.5 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Vasa Pusica (guard)
most points        Vasa Pusica (guard)
most rebounds      Bolden Brace (guard)
most assists       Vasa Pusica (guard)
most steals        Vasa Pusica (guard)
most blocks        Anthony Green (center)
most turnovers     Vasa Pusica (guard)
most fouls         Shawn Occeus (guard)

Northeastern is a bit one-dimensional.  Control Pusica and you should control the
game.  Guard Shaquille Walters has missed the last five games with an undisclosed
problem; his status for the Kansas game isn't known at this time; he is eighth on
the team in terms of minutes played, so represents a reserve who plays a bit more
than Lightfoot and a bit less than Moore.  Guard Maxime Boursiquot is out for the
season with a hip injury.

                                                          25-9            23-10
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Northeastern
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall        +10.49   79   69                # 14   #  1     # 96   #164 
Sagarin Predictor      +11.28   79   68       87.7     # 13   #  1     #101   #164 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +11.38   79   68                # 10   #  1     # 86   #164 
Sagarin Recent Games    +2.91   75   72                # 37   #  1     # 56   #164
Sagarin Eigenvector    +14.98   81   66       89       
Massey                  +8.00   77   69       78       # 16   #  4     # 72   #113
Pomeroy                 +8.12   75   67                # 20   #  1     # 79   #164
Greenfield              +7.00   75.5 68.5              # 16   #  5     # 83   #104
Dunkel                  +3.00   68.5 65.5              # 13            # 84       
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +6.50   75   68                                           
Dolphin Predictive      +9.14   77.5 68       78.7     # 20   # 10     # 93   #128
Real Time               +2.00   71   69       55.4     # 12   #  1     # 52   #116 
Seven Overtimes         +6.00   76   70       77       #  7   #  3     # 51   #139
DPPI                      .                            #      #        #      #    
ESPN BPI               +11.30                 85.0     # 19   #  2     # 80   #129
Whitlock               +13.49                          # 11   #  1     # 94   #120
Colley Matrix          +17.34                          #  9   #  1     # 73   #136
NCAA NET                                               # 20            # 78
common opponents       +11.50                                                                     
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                 +9.08   76.0 68.3 
scatter                  4.28    3.4  1.7

Here is Kansas' season, with potential future opponents selected from the
higher seed:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  5 Michigan State              92  87    -5.41   +10.41
HOME   # 88 Vermont                     84  68   +13.46    +2.54
HOME   #165 Louisiana                   89  76   +19.87    -6.87
NEUT   # 23 Marquette                   77  68    +1.91    +7.09
NEUT   #  7 Tennessee                   87  81    -2.53    +8.53
HOME   #108 Stanford                    90  84   +15.04    -9.04
HOME   # 37 Wofford                     72  47    +7.55   +17.45
HOME   # 59 New Mexico State            63  60   +11.04    -8.04
HOME   # 19 Villanova                   74  71    +4.40    -1.40
HOME   #215 South Dakota                89  53   +22.96   +13.04
AWAY   # 50 Arizona State               76  80    +3.23    -7.23
HOME   #163 Eastern Michigan            87  63   +19.66    +4.34
HOME   # 32 Oklahoma                    70  63    +6.69    +0.31
AWAY   # 14 Iowa State                  60  77    -2.94   -14.06
HOME   # 40 TCU                         77  68    +7.99    +1.01
AWAY   # 43 Baylor                      73  68    +1.96    +3.04
HOME   # 29 Texas                       80  78    +6.27    -4.27
AWAY   # 67 West Virginia               64  65    +5.68    -6.68
HOME   # 14 Iowa State                  80  76    +3.32    +0.68
AWAY   #  6 Kentucky                    63  71    -5.70    -2.30
AWAY   # 29 Texas                       63  73    +0.01   -10.01
HOME   #  9 Texas Tech                  79  63    +1.37   +14.63
AWAY   # 21 Kansas State                67  74    -1.42    -5.58
HOME   # 71 Oklahoma State              84  72   +12.33    -0.33
AWAY   # 40 TCU                         82  77    +1.73    +3.27
HOME   # 67 West Virginia               78  53   +11.94   +13.06
AWAY   #  9 Texas Tech                  62  91    -4.89   -24.11
HOME   # 21 Kansas State                64  49    +4.84   +10.16
AWAY   # 71 Oklahoma State              72  67    +6.07    -1.07
AWAY   # 32 Oklahoma                    68  81    +0.43   -13.43
HOME   # 43 Baylor                      78  70    +8.22    -0.22
NEUT   # 29 Texas                       65  57    +3.14    +4.86
NEUT   # 67 West Virginia               88  74    +8.81    +5.19            cumulative
NEUT   # 14 Iowa State                  66  78    +0.19   -12.19            probability
NEUT   #101 Northeastern                         +11.27             0.877   0.877
NEUT   # 11 Auburn                                -0.73             0.471   0.413
NEUT   #  4 North Carolina                        -5.92             0.280   0.116
NEUT   #  6 Kentucky                              -2.57             0.409   0.047
NEUT   #  3 Virginia                              -6.90             0.249   0.012
NEUT   #  1 Duke                                  -7.98             0.217   0.003

Here is Northeastern's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #229 Boston U.                   74  77   +12.66   -15.66
AWAY   #129 Harvard                     81  71    -0.92   +10.92
NEUT   # 54 Alabama                     68  52    -4.05   +20.05
NEUT   # 12 Virginia Tech               60  88   -11.40   -16.60
NEUT   # 80 Davidson                    59  71    -1.63   -10.37
HOME   # 80 Davidson                    69  78    +1.50   -10.50
AWAY   #147 Bucknell                    96  78    +0.78   +17.22
HOME   #163 Eastern Michigan            81  67    +8.39    +5.61
AWAY   # 33 Syracuse                    49  72   -10.82   -12.18
HOME   #185 Oakland-Mich.               92  83   +10.01    -1.01
AWAY   # 88 Vermont                     70  75    -4.07    -0.93
HOME   #125 St. Bonaventure             64  59    +5.08    -0.08
HOME   #240 Drexel                      93  83   +13.37    -3.37
HOME   #244 Delaware                    80  82   +13.85   -15.85
AWAY   #106 Hofstra                     72  75    -2.83    -0.17
AWAY   #303 Elon                        81  70   +10.91    +0.09
AWAY   #205 William & Mary              90  70    +4.96   +15.04
HOME   #130 College of Charleston       69  60    +5.37    +3.63
HOME   #253 NC Wilmington               88  71   +14.26    +2.74
AWAY   #272 Towson                      72  75    +8.97   -11.97
AWAY   #261 James Madison               78  68    +8.39    +1.61
HOME   #106 Hofstra                     75  61    +3.43   +10.57
HOME   #205 William & Mary              72  60   +11.22    +0.78
HOME   #303 Elon                        72  70   +17.17   -15.17
AWAY   #253 NC Wilmington               81  77    +8.00    -4.00
AWAY   #130 College of Charleston       79  88    -0.89    -8.11
HOME   #261 James Madison               76  60   +14.65    +1.35
HOME   #272 Towson                      73  58   +15.23    -0.23
AWAY   #244 Delaware                    75  64    +7.59    +3.41
AWAY   #240 Drexel                      90  66    +7.11   +16.89
NEUT   #253 NC Wilmington               80  59   +11.13    +9.87
NEUT   #130 College of Charleston       70  67    +2.24    +0.76
NEUT   #106 Hofstra                     82  74    +0.30    +7.70
NEUT   # 13 Kansas                               -11.27             0.123
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5 years 1 week ago #22108 by JRhawk
Thanks, asteroid. Quite a moon overnight. Got a chuckle at your Real Time comment - makes one wonder. Hope the Jayhawks come out hot and never look back.
KU doesn't have to worry about meeting pundit expectations this year - see ESPN's 29 contributor list and zero have KU making the FF.
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5 years 1 week ago #22111 by NotOstertag
Since we're now potentially playing for the last time this season with every game, I want to take a moment for thanking you once again for your contributions to the board. I have to admit that I can't digest 100% of what you write with every game, I DO check 100% of the time and at least grab the highlights.

Your consistent and thorough analysis is welcome and appreciated, so thanks for providing it.

"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
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  • konza63
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5 years 1 week ago #22119 by konza63
Hear, hear! Thank you, Asteroid! You rock. (No pun intended)

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
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