Coaches in the NCAA

Below is a snippet of the rather voluminous amount of data I have compiled for the NCAA Tourney. This is a list of coaches who have coached at least 25 games in the NCAA. The columns may need some explanation.

Expected Prob Wins - This is the sum of the probabilities for each actual game matchup. Given the actual matchups, this is how many games the coach should have won (based on probability)

Projected Seed Wins - This is the number of wins the coach should have received purely on the seeding. For instance, if you are a number one seed, the probability is you will win 3.2 games in the field of 64. Each seed has an expectation of wins. BTW, I have this not only for the total but for each round.

Net Prob Wins - This is just the difference between the actual wins and the Expected Prob Wins.

Net Seed Wins - This is the difference between the actual wins and the Projected Seed Wins.

Win percentage for actual, Prob and Seed is the winning percentage for each category of wins pr projected wins.

Bill Self has done an amazing job of getting into the tournament but a poor job of performing in the tournament. All coaches are bound by the same metrics. You can see Self has an average seed of 2.3 in 20 years in the tournament. Only Dean Smith, Roy Williams and Coach K can boast a better record than that. But once in, Self has under performed. It is not in the table attached but based on the seeding and years, the probability is that Self would have won 1.6 championships by now. He is 0.6 short. Only Eddie Sutton (-0.6) and Bob Huggins (-0.7) are tied or worse. One potential silver lining of getting a 4 seed is this is a great chance for Self to erase a large part of his under performing. A 4 seed is probabilistically only projected to win 1.55 games. If he were to make it to the Final Four, he would more than wipe out his deficit.

CJ - Thanks for all the facts, fun facts, etc. With the above, I seriously doubt that Wooden, Rupp, & McGuire combined for zero NCAA tourney wins. Also, do you happen to have Phog Allen's NCAA record handy. I take it he coached fewer than 25 tourney games. Thanks.

Amazing you should be doing NCAA statistics on TV for the tournament

Forgot to copy the wins from the pre-seed days before 1979. Got that corrected. As for Phog Allen, that is a sad story that I get heartsick whenever I think about it. He was 10-3 in the NCAA Tourney. His last game was a loss in the 1953 National Championship game to Indiana and Branch McKracken by a score of 69 to 68. One of the great heartbreak games in KU lore. Winning that game would have finished his stellar career in style and given him back to back National Championships. He coached for 3 more years but did not make it back to the tourney. Four years later in 1957 Dick Harp lost to North Carolina in triple OT by a score of 53 to 52. Although the 1997 loss was not in the National Championship game it was another heartbreaker as was the 2003 loss which also was the last game coached by Roy at KU. 1988 was a magical run for a 6 seed KU. This team does not have the senior leadership nor does it have one of the greatest players in NCAA history like that 1988 team did. But we have some young talent and some firepower that is ready to make a 6 game run. I would not bet on it but nor would I bet against it.

Thanks CJ. The 50's were a great decade. As you say, sad that KU didn't get back-to-back NC's in 52 & 53. Believe you shorted each team 1 point in the 57 score - that was a heartbreaker for sure. So was 97.
Phog's 10-3 NCAA tourney record is great, even though 1 of the wins was a consolation game (1942 Western Regional)

I really miss the 3rd place games. I was sad when they stopped playing for third place in the regions in 1975 and then 1981 was the last 3rd place (consolation) game for the final four. I would love to see them put back the third place game in the final four and the region.

Agree about the 3rd place games - they gave fans a reason to stay around after making what most often is a long trip.

I remember enjoying consolation games, but I'm not sure they'd do as well today.

Fans are more fickle. I know that this is a gross generalization, but I don't think many young people have the attention span for such things, lol.

Moreover, the teams don't want it. Back then, I think it meant something to the teams, but I don't think today that teams would be as "into" playing for 3rd place. You might end up with two frustrated and unmotivated teams out there, and coaches wouldn't necessarily be too interested in guys risking injury for an essentially meaningless game.

Like the conference tournaments, the runners up would need some kind of incentive. Conf tournaments have to use guaranteed placement in the NCAA tourney to generate interest. Not sure what you could dangle in front of fans and players that would generate much hoopla for 3rd place.