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Probabilities for all teams, all rounds

  • CorpusJayhawk
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5 years 1 week ago #22084 by CorpusJayhawk
Kansas is facing a big climb to make it to the final four this season. The DPPI has Kansas currently ranked 24th overall. We have a 78% probability of winning against Northeastern. We have only a 38% probability of making it into the 2nd weekend. The probability of making it to the Final Four is a scant 2.9% and the probability of winning it all is 0.1%. KU is ranked 22nd in probability of winning it all. Virginia is the odds on favorite to win it all at 22.4% probability. The bottom table is the projected wins by conference by round. The Big 12 is currently projected to win 7.66 games. That is 5th among all conferences. I would sure like to see that number much higher, mainly due to KU going far.




Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
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5 years 1 week ago #22086 by OreadExpress
So you’re saying there’s a chance...;)

Seriously though, it would be nice to see the Sweet 16. I’m a little disappointed that the odds aren’t better for that even.

It would be monumental to get out of Kansas City with games to play yet.

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5 years 1 week ago #22088 by JRhawk
CJ - I notices Arizona State listed twice, so did a cursory look for other errors. You have Temple a 16 seed and I don't see Gardner-Webb.
Not great chances for KU, but let's go ahead and play em.

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5 years 1 week ago #22091 by NotOstertag
Cool stuff, and nobody can say that there's not enough data to go on at this point in the season.

One odd thing about the numbers is that there are only 12 teams with a better than 50% chance of winning in round two. This seems odd because in each individual game at that point one of the team will go into the game with a better than 50% chance, and we KNOW that 16 teams will leave round 2 as winners (so presumably after round 1, there will be 16 teams with a better than 50% chance).

By my reading, we're the 20th most likely team to win in round 2, which puts us outside of the top 16. Still, you gotta play the games.

"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot

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5 years 1 week ago #22092 by CorpusJayhawk
Thanks for catching the error JR. I have assumed the Play-in wins to get it down to 64 teams. Plus, the conference total table was from last year. I forgot to "refresh" my pivot table. The poor Big 12 has the curse this season of having no real weak teams but no real top tier teams either. Although Texas Tech has the potential to be a top tier team. We (the Big 12) are projected to win only 7.03 games. I am hoping for at least 10 and maybe 14.




Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
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5 years 1 week ago #22093 by JRhawk
Thanks CJ. I hadn't looked at the conference list. Are correct about the Big 12 - no great teams this year. I see that Dean Wade is doubtful for KSU, so there probably goes any chance they had. Hope KU and TT catch fire - also if ISU can get back to the Sprint Center, then could do some damage.
What do you have the main list sorted on?

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5 years 1 week ago #22095 by AZhawk87
Really too bad for Wade if he can't play, as a senior. He seems like a really good kid. Plays hard, clean and without silly fanfare.

But, I sure don't want to hear from the KSt fans losing and then complaining about not having him and "what if" scenarios. There's plenty of "what ifs" to go around this season for many teams, including KU.

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5 years 1 week ago #22112 by NotOstertag
Hi Corpus. As with my note on Asteroid's post, I want to personally thank you for your contribution to the board. I'm not sure how much time you stats wizards put into this, but I'm sure that everybody here is with me in regard to the appreciation we have for your efforts.

In addition, I want to thank you personally for your patience in explaining some of these things to those of us (well, me, actually) who have questions about how you get to your conclusions.

Since no future games are guaranteed going forward, I wanted to say thanks now while the season is still officially alive.

"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
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5 years 1 week ago #22113 by porthawk
What NotO said!

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5 years 1 week ago #22114 by Bayhawk
What Port said NotO said!!!!!! :cheer:


RCJHGKU
RCJHFL

The end is nothing; the road is all.
-- Jules Michelet
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5 years 1 week ago #22116 by wchawk
What Bayhawk said Port said NotO said!!!!!


RCJHGKU
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