early look at Northeastern game

Here's an early look at Northeastern and the rest of the tournament.  Assuming
future opponents come from the higher seed, Kansas has a 41 percent chance
of making the Sweet Sixteen in Kansas City, a 5 percent chance of making the
Final Four in Minneapolis, and a 0.3 percent chance of a championship.

Common Opponents
================
There are two common opponents, namely Eastern Michigan and Vermont, giving us
two score to compare:

KU  +24 EMU at home (+20 neutral court)
NE  +14 EMU at home (+10 neutral court)
KU  +10 NE  neutral (+10 neutral court)

KU  +16 Ver at home (+12 neutral court)
NE   -5 Ver on road ( -1 neutral court)
KU  +13 NE  neutral (+13 neutral court)

Both comparisons favor Kansas, with the average being 11.5 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Vasa Pusica (guard)
most points        Vasa Pusica (guard)
most rebounds      Bolden Brace (guard)
most assists       Vasa Pusica (guard)
most steals        Vasa Pusica (guard)
most blocks        Anthony Green (center)
most turnovers     Vasa Pusica (guard)
most fouls         Shawn Occeus (guard)

Northeastern is a bit one-dimensional.  Control Pusica and you should control the
game.

                                                          25-9            23-10
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Northeastern
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall           .                            # 14   #  1     # 96   #162 
Sagarin Predictor      +11.27                 87.7     # 13   #  1     #101   #162 
Sagarin Golden Mean       .                            # 10   #  1     # 86   #162 
Sagarin Recent Games      .                            # 38   #  1     # 56   #162
Sagarin Eigenvector       .                            
Massey                    .                            # 16   #  3     # 70   #112
Pomeroy                 +8.49   75   67                # 20   #  1     # 79   #163
Greenfield                .                            # 16   #  5     # 83   #104
Dunkel                    .                            # 13            # 96       
Vegas (via Dunkel)        .                                                       
Dolphin Predictive      +9.14   77.5 68       78.7     # 20   # 10     # 93   #128
Real Time               +2.00   71   69       55.3     # 12   #  1     # 52   #116 
Seven Overtimes           .                            #  7   #  3     # 51   #139
DPPI                      .                            #      #        #      #    
ESPN BPI                  .                            # 19   #  5     # 80   #132
Whitlock               +13.49                          # 11   #  1     # 94   #120
Colley Matrix          +17.34                          #  9   #  1     # 73   #136
NCAA NET                                               # 20            # 78
common opponents       +11.50                                                                     
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 

Here is Kansas' season, with potential future opponents selected from the
higher seed:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  5 Michigan State              92  87    -5.41   +10.41
HOME   # 88 Vermont                     84  68   +13.46    +2.54
HOME   #165 Louisiana                   89  76   +19.87    -6.87
NEUT   # 23 Marquette                   77  68    +1.91    +7.09
NEUT   #  7 Tennessee                   87  81    -2.53    +8.53
HOME   #108 Stanford                    90  84   +15.04    -9.04
HOME   # 37 Wofford                     72  47    +7.55   +17.45
HOME   # 59 New Mexico State            63  60   +11.04    -8.04
HOME   # 19 Villanova                   74  71    +4.40    -1.40
HOME   #215 South Dakota                89  53   +22.96   +13.04
AWAY   # 50 Arizona State               76  80    +3.23    -7.23
HOME   #163 Eastern Michigan            87  63   +19.66    +4.34
HOME   # 32 Oklahoma                    70  63    +6.69    +0.31
AWAY   # 14 Iowa State                  60  77    -2.94   -14.06
HOME   # 40 TCU                         77  68    +7.99    +1.01
AWAY   # 43 Baylor                      73  68    +1.96    +3.04
HOME   # 29 Texas                       80  78    +6.27    -4.27
AWAY   # 67 West Virginia               64  65    +5.68    -6.68
HOME   # 14 Iowa State                  80  76    +3.32    +0.68
AWAY   #  6 Kentucky                    63  71    -5.70    -2.30
AWAY   # 29 Texas                       63  73    +0.01   -10.01
HOME   #  9 Texas Tech                  79  63    +1.37   +14.63
AWAY   # 21 Kansas State                67  74    -1.42    -5.58
HOME   # 71 Oklahoma State              84  72   +12.33    -0.33
AWAY   # 40 TCU                         82  77    +1.73    +3.27
HOME   # 67 West Virginia               78  53   +11.94   +13.06
AWAY   #  9 Texas Tech                  62  91    -4.89   -24.11
HOME   # 21 Kansas State                64  49    +4.84   +10.16
AWAY   # 71 Oklahoma State              72  67    +6.07    -1.07
AWAY   # 32 Oklahoma                    68  81    +0.43   -13.43
HOME   # 43 Baylor                      78  70    +8.22    -0.22
NEUT   # 29 Texas                       65  57    +3.14    +4.86
NEUT   # 67 West Virginia               88  74    +8.81    +5.19            cumulative
NEUT   # 14 Iowa State                  66  78    +0.19   -12.19            probability
NEUT   #101 Northeastern                         +11.27             0.877   0.877
NEUT   # 11 Auburn                                -0.73             0.471   0.413
NEUT   #  4 North Carolina                        -5.92             0.280   0.116
NEUT   #  6 Kentucky                              -2.57             0.409   0.047
NEUT   #  3 Virginia                              -6.90             0.249   0.012
NEUT   #  1 Duke                                  -7.98             0.217   0.003

Here is Northeastern's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #229 Boston U.                   74  77   +12.66   -15.66
AWAY   #129 Harvard                     81  71    -0.92   +10.92
NEUT   # 54 Alabama                     68  52    -4.05   +20.05
NEUT   # 12 Virginia Tech               60  88   -11.40   -16.60
NEUT   # 80 Davidson                    59  71    -1.63   -10.37
HOME   # 80 Davidson                    69  78    +1.50   -10.50
AWAY   #147 Bucknell                    96  78    +0.78   +17.22
HOME   #163 Eastern Michigan            81  67    +8.39    +5.61
AWAY   # 33 Syracuse                    49  72   -10.82   -12.18
HOME   #185 Oakland-Mich.               92  83   +10.01    -1.01
AWAY   # 88 Vermont                     70  75    -4.07    -0.93
HOME   #125 St. Bonaventure             64  59    +5.08    -0.08
HOME   #240 Drexel                      93  83   +13.37    -3.37
HOME   #244 Delaware                    80  82   +13.85   -15.85
AWAY   #106 Hofstra                     72  75    -2.83    -0.17
AWAY   #303 Elon                        81  70   +10.91    +0.09
AWAY   #205 William & Mary              90  70    +4.96   +15.04
HOME   #130 College of Charleston       69  60    +5.37    +3.63
HOME   #253 NC Wilmington               88  71   +14.26    +2.74
AWAY   #272 Towson                      72  75    +8.97   -11.97
AWAY   #261 James Madison               78  68    +8.39    +1.61
HOME   #106 Hofstra                     75  61    +3.43   +10.57
HOME   #205 William & Mary              72  60   +11.22    +0.78
HOME   #303 Elon                        72  70   +17.17   -15.17
AWAY   #253 NC Wilmington               81  77    +8.00    -4.00
AWAY   #130 College of Charleston       79  88    -0.89    -8.11
HOME   #261 James Madison               76  60   +14.65    +1.35
HOME   #272 Towson                      73  58   +15.23    -0.23
AWAY   #244 Delaware                    75  64    +7.59    +3.41
AWAY   #240 Drexel                      90  66    +7.11   +16.89
NEUT   #253 NC Wilmington               80  59   +11.13    +9.87
NEUT   #130 College of Charleston       70  67    +2.24    +0.76
NEUT   #106 Hofstra                     82  74    +0.30    +7.70
NEUT   # 13 Kansas                               -11.27             0.123