Big 12 final

Final Big 12 conference standings along with the projection history.

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2  Rnd 3  Rnd 4  Rnd 5  Rnd 6  Rnd 7  Rnd 8  Rnd 9
                      Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.
      Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins 
      --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
      Kansas State     7.81   6.43   6.43   6.63   7.59   8.85   9.59  10.43  10.21  10.87
      Texas Tech      11.96  12.28  12.35  12.71  13.27  12.28  11.39  10.65  11.08  10.71
      Kansas          12.80  13.08  12.07  12.50  12.87  13.01  12.20  12.60  11.89  12.31
      Baylor           6.32   6.33   6.24   7.06   6.72   7.51   8.33   9.09  10.29  10.83
      Iowa State      10.49  10.85  11.75  11.07  10.07  10.97  11.17  10.81  11.27  11.56
      Texas            8.51   9.83  10.18   9.36   8.73   8.61   9.04   8.67   9.08   8.78
      Oklahoma        10.61  10.41  10.34  10.10  10.44   9.05   8.55   9.18   8.34   7.60
      TCU              9.99   9.87  10.00   9.68   9.46  10.05   9.32   9.70   8.97   8.23
      Oklahoma State   5.22   4.82   4.72   5.34   6.30   5.60   5.45   4.85   5.05   4.53
      West Virginia    6.29   6.10   5.92   5.55   4.55   4.07   4.96   4.02   3.82   4.58

                      Rd 10  Rd 11  Rd 12  Rd 13  Rd 14  Rd 15  Rd 16  Rd 17  Rd 18
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------
# 21  Kansas State    11.59  12.27  12.96  12.42  12.79  13.08  12.78  13.12  13.63   14  4
#  9  Texas Tech      11.00  11.65  12.02  12.29  12.32  12.71  12.78  13.21  13.48   14  4
# 11  Kansas          11.67  11.61  12.12  12.24  12.20  11.76  12.07  12.31  11.77   12  6
# 39  Baylor          10.32   9.75  10.15   9.83  10.61  10.86  11.31  10.97  10.23   10  8
# 15  Iowa State      12.11  11.21  11.21  11.79  11.05  10.48  10.79  10.28   9.52    9  9
# 25  Texas            9.28   9.81   9.06   9.27   9.26   8.89   8.44   8.94   8.69    8 10
# 28  Oklahoma         6.98   6.38   5.95   6.57   6.60   6.97   6.66   6.82   7.37    7 11
# 40  TCU              8.38   9.21   8.74   8.02   7.40   7.90   7.26   6.84   6.31    7 11
# 75  Oklahoma State   4.33   4.25   3.91   3.78   4.42   4.17   4.09   3.87   4.61    5 13
# 74  West Virginia    4.34   3.86   3.88   3.79   3.35   3.18   3.82   3.64   4.39    4 14

So, how did teams do relative to their pre-season projection?  Differentials of up to
3 wins are not unusual, but the 6.2 win differential for Kansas State is unprecedented.
We can attribute that to the pre-season projection being skewed by the absence of Wade,
while the actual conference performance was largely with Wade.  Still, it's pretty
amazing how much of a difference one player can make.

                          Init.
                 Actual   Proj.
Team              Wins     Wins   Diff.
--------------   ------   -----   -----
Kansas State       14      7.81   +6.19
Baylor             10      6.32   +3.68
Texas Tech         14     11.96   +2.04
Oklahoma State      5      5.22   -0.22
Texas               8      8.51   -0.51
Kansas             12     12.80   -0.80
Iowa State          9     10.49   -1.49
West Virginia       4      6.29   -2.29
TCU                 7      9.99   -2.99
Oklahoma            7     10.61   -3.61

Greenfield and Vegas tied for honors with the best prognostications in Round 19.  Honorable mention
to Colley and Dunkel.  The season winner is Greenfield by a nose over Vegas.  (And now you know why
it's tough to beat Vegas.)  I should mention that Whitlock's web site completely disappeared, so I
used his ratings that were in effect for Round 18 to make the predictions for Round 19.  I should
also mention that some of the prognosticators work only in integer predictions (Massey, Real Time,
Seven Overtimes), while others quantize to half integers (Greenfield, Dunkel, Vegas), so at the
half point level, Sagarin, Massey, Pomeroy, Greenfield, Vegas, Dolphin, and ESPN's BPI are all
pretty much equal.  Colley's predictions were the worst of the bunch, but I noted way back at the
beginning of the conference season that the scaling of ratings units to points seemed weird this
season.  I basically took the Sagarin Predictor ratings of the top and bottom teams (Duke and
Delaware State) to maximize the point difference, then looked at Colley's ratings for those two
teams and computed that I had to scale Colley's ratings by 60.63 to convert his ratings units to
points.  That's significantly larger than it has been for the most recent previous seasons, when
it was down around 44 or so.  Maybe the rating for Delaware State was wonky at the time, but they
had an entire non-conference season on which to base a rating.  Another thing worth noting is that
adjusting Sagarin's Predictor ratings for actual performance doesn't help the predictions.  It made
them an average of 0.6 points worse.  And using last year's Big 12 home court advantage also didn't
help; that added another 0.2 points.  The trend analsysis also made things worse by 1.1 points.
Greenfield's predictions have matched Vegas so frequently, it's no surprise that they finished with
the same average error of 9.1 points.  Still, that's a little better than the national average for
inconsistency of 11 points.  Real Time was second worst, edging out Seven Overtimes.  Both of those
guys need to work on their algorithms.  In particular, Real Time gives the home team an extra eight
points, which is way too much.  That's 16 points for a swap of venue.  Makes me wonder if the more
common 8 points for swap of venue is interpreted as the "home court advantage" by Real Time, thereby
making it a factor of two too large.

Predictions                                                                                            
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 
              Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd 
KU  over BU    8.2   8.0   6.5   7.5   9.5   7.0   5.9  15.4   9.3   8.8  10.0  11.0   7.5   9.8   4.0 
UT  over TCU   5.5   8.0   7.0   6.5   8.5   6.0   7.3   2.1   6.3   7.8   1.0   9.0   6.0   8.3   8.7 
KSU over OU    4.1   6.0   5.1   7.0  12.5   7.0   5.3   7.9   4.7   5.8   2.0  11.0   3.6   6.0  10.0 
OSU over WVU   3.0   5.0   3.9   4.5  10.0   4.5   3.9   3.1   4.6   3.5   1.0   7.0   4.3   6.6  -0.1 
ISU over TTU   0.5  -1.0  -1.4  -2.5   2.5  -2.5  -2.2  -5.1  -1.3   0.3  -4.0   2.0  -0.8   1.5  -3.8 

     Reality  Error                                                                                  
     -------  --2-----------1----1.5----3----1.5----------1-----1-----1-----------3-----------1-----3-
              Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
         8     0.2   0.0   1.5   0.5   1.5   1.0   2.1   7.4   1.3   0.8   2.0   3.0   0.5   1.8   4.0
       -13    18.5  21.0  20.0  19.5  21.5  19.0  20.3  15.1  19.3  20.8  14.0  22.0  19.0  21.3  21.7
        15    10.9   9.0   9.9   8.0   2.5   8.0   9.7   7.1  10.3   9.2  13.0   4.0  11.4   9.0   5.0
         8     5.0   3.0   4.1   3.5   2.0   3.5   4.1   4.9   3.4   4.5   7.0   1.0   3.7   1.4   8.1
        -7     7.5   6.0   5.6   4.5   9.5   4.5   4.8   1.9   5.7   7.3   3.0   9.0   6.2   8.5   3.2

total         42.1  39.0  41.1  36.0  37.0  36.0  41.0  36.4  40.0  42.6  39.0  39.0  40.8  42.0  42.0
previous     789.0 825.0 788.8 780.0 859.5 783.5 811.11006.8 849.3 797.3 894.0 903.0 838.0 859.9 882.5
cumulative   831.1 864.0 829.9 816.0 896.5 819.5 852.11043.2 889.3 839.9 933.0 942.0 878.8 901.9 924.5
pre game       9.2   9.6   9.2   9.1  10.0   9.1   9.5  11.6   9.9   9.3  10.4  10.5   9.8  10.0  10.3

No road wins were projected for Round 19, which would have left us spot-on the long-term average
of one road win in every three games.  But the toss-up game in Ames did indeed go the way of the
Red Raiders, and TCU avoided having its bubble burst by shocking Texas in Austin, so we finised
the conference season two road wins ahead of the long-term average, but that's within the scatter.
So no surprises here.  Kansas tried to follow its usual recipe for winning the league by having
an unblemished home record, but road woes relegated this team to third place.

Road wins (32 out of 90)                     Home losses                              Differential 
------------------------------------------   --------------------------------------   --------------
7 Kansas St.   ISU OU  OSU BU  UT  WVU TCU   0 Kansas                                +5 Kansas St.  
6 Texas Tech   WVU UT  OU  OSU TCU ISU       1 Texas Tech   ISU                      +5 Texas Tech    
4 Baylor       OSU WVU OU  ISU               2 Kansas St.   UT  ISU                  +3 Kansas        
4 Iowa St.     OSU TTU OU  KSU               3 Baylor       KU  KSU OSU              +1 Baylor        
3 Kansas       BU  TCU OSU                   3 Texas        TTU KSU TCU               0 Iowa St.    
2 Oklahoma     OSU TCU                       4 Iowa St.     KSU TCU BU  TTU          -1 Texas         
2 Oklahoma St. WVU BU                        4 Oklahoma     KSU BU  ISU TTU          -2 Oklahoma      
2 TCU          ISU UT                        4 TCU          KU  OU  TTU KSU          -2 TCU           
2 Texas        KSU WVU                       5 W. Virginia  TTU OSU BU  UT  KSU      -4 Oklahoma St.
0 W. Virginia                                6 Oklahoma St. ISU BU  OU  KSU TTU KU   -5 W. Virginia 

Statistics through the end of the conference tournament.

Performance (points)    Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------   ----------------------    
Texas Tech      +1.67   Kansas            9.29    
Iowa State      +0.58   West Virginia    10.50    
Baylor          +0.20   Oklahoma         10.88    
Texas           +0.14   Iowa State       11.05    
Oklahoma        +0.08   Oklahoma State   11.09    
TCU             +0.04   Texas            11.28    
Kansas          -0.20   Texas Tech       11.31    
Kansas State    -0.21   TCU              11.48    
Oklahoma State  -0.90   Kansas State     11.99    
West Virginia   -2.08   Baylor           12.49    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Kansas State    +0.48 +/- 0.21    Kansas State    +0.43 +/- 0.22
Baylor          +0.21 +/- 0.24    Baylor          +0.30 +/- 0.21
Texas Tech      +0.19 +/- 0.22    Texas           +0.26 +/- 0.23
West Virginia   +0.05 +/- 0.19    Oklahoma State  +0.06 +/- 0.25
Texas           +0.01 +/- 0.22    Texas Tech      +0.05 +/- 0.17
Iowa State      -0.03 +/- 0.20    Iowa State      -0.04 +/- 0.20
Oklahoma State  -0.06 +/- 0.22    TCU             -0.10 +/- 0.24
Kansas          -0.17 +/- 0.16    West Virginia   -0.20 +/- 0.21
TCU             -0.19 +/- 0.21    Kansas          -0.31 +/- 0.22
Oklahoma        -0.28 +/- 0.21    Oklahoma        -0.61 +/- 0.31

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
Iowa State      77.15   Kansas State    59.48   West Virginia   150.03   Texas Tech      +12.69   
Kansas          75.03   Texas Tech      59.84   Iowa State      145.76   Iowa State       +8.53   
TCU             73.67   Texas           67.56   Kansas          145.47   Kansas State     +6.09   
West Virginia   72.79   Baylor          67.62   TCU             144.30   Kansas           +4.59   
Texas Tech      72.53   Oklahoma        68.41   Oklahoma State  139.56   Baylor           +3.59   
Baylor          71.22   Iowa State      68.62   Oklahoma        139.38   TCU              +3.03   
Oklahoma        70.97   Kansas          70.44   Baylor          138.84   Texas            +2.62   
Texas           70.19   TCU             70.64   Texas           137.75   Oklahoma         +2.56   
Oklahoma State  67.88   Oklahoma State  71.69   Texas Tech      132.38   Oklahoma State   -3.81   
Kansas State    65.58   West Virginia   77.24   Kansas State    125.06   West Virginia    -4.44   

Schedule Strength   
--------------------------   
Kansas          83.35 ( 1)   
Oklahoma State  82.71 ( 2)   
Texas           82.38 ( 6)   
Oklahoma        82.13 ( 9)   
West Virginia   81.98 (13)   
Iowa State      80.95 (21)   
Kansas State    80.73 (26)   
Baylor          80.51 (32)   
TCU             80.37 (34)
Texas Tech      79.81 (44)