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predictions for Iowa State game

  • asteroid
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2 months 4 days ago #21998 by asteroid
Iowa State is not the Big 12's most inconsistent team, yet it somehow feels like
it.  After all, midway through the season, the Cyclones were projected to win the
conference, and people like Fraschilla were saying that if the streak was to be
broken, Iowa State was the team to do it.  Yet the Cyclones finished in fifth
place, losing five of their last six regular season conference games in the
process.  Yet despite having lost both regular season games with Baylor, they
dominated the Bears in the tournament.  Then they took down the 1 seed, setting
up today's championship game with Kansas.

Both teams have negative trends of virtually identical value, but neither is
statistically significant.  Both teams have negative mental toughness ratings,
but Iowa State's is not statistically significant, while Kansas' is.  Taken at
face value, they make Kansas a 0.1 point underdog, meaning overtime.

Only one prognosticator has Kansas as an underdog, with Dolphin favoring the
Cyclones by 0.3 points.  The rest favor Kansas by anywhere from 0.1 points
(Pomeroy) to 9.5 points (Colley, though recall my concerns over the scaling
from rating units to points).  The average favors Kansas by 2.4 points.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     ISU     KU       Defensive Stats       ISU     KU
Points/Game         77.4    75.7     Opp Points/Game       68.4    69.8
Avg Score Margin    +9.0    +5.8     Opp Effective FG %   48.8%   47.6%
Assist/Game         15.3    13.4     Off Rebounds/Gm        8.2     9.1
Total Rebouds/Gm    35.3    38.0     Def Rebounds/Gm       24.2    26.2
Effective FG %      54.9    52.7     Blocks/Game            4.6     3.9
Off Rebound %       26.9    28.2     Steals/Game            6.9     6.8
FTA/FGA            0.299   0.335     Personal Fouls/Gm     14.7    16.8
Turnover %         14.2%   16.4%

Common Opponents
================
There are eight common opponents, all in conference, plus the two head-to-head
games.  For the regular season conference games, I'll use only the home-home and
road-road permutations, but for the conference tournament games, I'm comparing
those neutral court games to both the home and road regular season games, giving
us twenty six scores to compare:

KU   +5 OSU on road ( +9 neutral court)     KU  +12 OSU at home ( +8 neutral court)
ISU  +6 OSU on road (+10 neutral court)     ISU +13 OSU at home ( +9 neutral court)
KU   -1 ISU neutral ( -1 neutral court)     KU   -1 ISU neutral ( -1 neutral court)

KU   +5 BU  on road ( +9 neutral court)     KU   +8 BU  at home ( +4 neutral court)
ISU  -3 BU  on road ( +1 neutral court)     ISU  -4 BU  at home ( -8 neutral court)
KU   +8 ISU neutral ( +8 neutral court)     KU  +12 ISU neutral (+12 neutral court)

KU  +15 KSU at home (+11 neutral court)     KU   -7 KSU on road ( -3 neutral court)
ISU  -1 KSU at home ( -5 neutral court)     ISU +14 KSU on road (+18 neutral court)
KU  +16 ISU neutral (+16 neutral court)     KU  -21 ISU neutral (-21 neutral court)

KU  -29 TTU on road (-25 neutral court)     KU  +16 TTU at home (+12 neutral court)
ISU  +4 TTU on road ( +8 neutral court)     ISU  -7 TTU at home (-11 neutral court)
KU  -33 ISU neutral (-33 neutral court)     KU  +23 ISU neutral (+23 neutral court)

KU  +25 WVU at home (+21 neutral court)     KU   -1 WVU on road ( +3 neutral court)
ISU +25 WVU at home (+21 neutral court)     ISU -15 WVU on road (-11 neutral court)
KU    0 ISU neutral (  0 neutral court)     KU  +14 ISU neutral (+14 neutral court)

KU   +2 UT  at home ( -2 neutral court)     KU  -10 UT  on road ( -6 neutral court)
ISU  +5 UT  at home ( +1 neutral court)     ISU -17 UT  on road (-13 neutral court)
KU   -3 ISU neutral ( -3 neutral court)     KU   +7 ISU neutral ( +7 neutral court)

KU  -13 OU  on road ( -9 neutral court)     KU   +7 OU  at home ( +3 neutral court)
ISU  +1 OU  on road ( +5 neutral court)     ISU +17 OU  at home (+13 neutral court)
KU  -14 ISU neutral (-14 neutral court)     KU  -10 ISU neutral (-10 neutral court)

KU   +9 TCU at home ( +5 neutral court)     KU   +5 TCU on road ( +9 neutral court)
ISU  -9 TCU at home (-13 neutral court)     ISU  -3 TCU on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU  +18 ISU neutral (+18 neutral court)     KU   +8 ISU neutral ( +8 neutral court)

KU   +5 BU  on road ( +9 neutral court)     KU   +8 BU  at home ( +4 neutral court)
ISU +17 BU  neutral (+17 neutral court)     ISU +17 BU  neutral (+17 neutral court)
KU   -8 ISU neutral ( -8 neutral court)     KU  -13 ISU neutral (-13 neutral court)

KU  +15 KSU at home (+11 neutral court)     KU   -7 KSU on road ( -3 neutral court)
ISU  +4 KSU neutral ( +4 neutral court)     ISU  +4 KSU neutral ( +4 neutral court)
KU   +7 ISU neutral ( +7 neutral court)     KU   -7 ISU neutral ( -7 neutral court)

KU   +8 UT  neutral ( +8 neutral court)     KU   +8 UT  neutral ( +8 neutral court)
ISU  +5 UT  at home ( +1 neutral court)     ISU -17 UT  on road (-13 neutral court)
KU   +7 ISU neutral ( +7 neutral court)     KU  +21 ISU neutral (+21 neutral court)

KU  +14 WVU neutral (+14 neutral court)     KU  +14 WVU neutral (+14 neutral court)
ISU +25 WVU at home (+21 neutral court)     ISU -15 WVU on road (-11 neutral court)
KU   -7 ISU neutral ( -7 neutral court)     KU  +25 ISU neutral (+25 neutral court)

KU  -17 ISU on road (-13 neutral court)     KU   +4 ISU at home (  0 neutral court)
KU  -13 ISU neutral (-13 neutral court)     KU    0 ISU neutral (  0 neutral court)

Twelve of the comparisons favor Kansas, while twelve favor Iowa State; two are a
wash.  The average is 1.35 points in favor of Kansas, but with a scatter of 14.3
points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Nick Weiler-Babb (guard)
most points        Marial Shayok (guard)
most rebounds      Michael Jacobson (forward)
most assists       Nick Weiler-Babb (guard)
most steals        Tyrese Haliburton (guard)
most blocks        Cameron Lard (forward)
most turnovers     Marial Shayok (guard)
most fouls         Cameron Lard (forward)

Reserve forward Zoran Talley is undergoing concussion protocol, and it isn't
known when he will be cleared to play.  Reserve forward Solomon Young is out
for the rest of the season with a groin injury.

                                                          25-8            22-11
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Iowa State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall         +1.38   73   72                # 11   #  1     # 18   # 26 
Sagarin Predictor       +0.74   73   72       52.9     # 11   #  1     # 15   # 26 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +3.19   74   71                #  9   #  1     # 20   # 26 
Sagarin Recent Games    +2.98   74   71                # 17   #  1     # 33   # 26
Sagarin Eigenvector     +4.48   75   70.5     67       
Massey                  +5.00   77   72       68       # 12   #  3     # 23   # 32
Pomeroy                 +0.07   74   74                # 16   #  2     # 17   # 32
Greenfield              +1.00   72.5 71.5              # 15   #  5     # 18   # 22
Dunkel                  +3.50   73   70                # 13            # 28       
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +1.00   76   75                                           
Dolphin Predictive      -0.34   75   75       48.8     # 18   # 10     # 17   # 23
Real Time               +2.00   71   69       53.8     # 10   #  1     # 38   # 23 
Seven Overtimes         +2.00   74   72       73       #  7   #  3     # 36   # 20
DPPI                    +0.40   72   72       51.3     # 18   #  1     # 24   # 37 
ESPN BPI                +3.90                 64.2     # 17   #  2     # 18   # 35
Whitlock                +1.67                          # 11   #  1     # 17   # 37
Colley Matrix           +9.49                          #  7   #  1     # 28   # 19
NCAA NET                                               # 19            # 22
common opponents        +1.35                                                                     
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                 +2.43   73.8 71.9
scatter                  2.33    1.6  1.7

Here is Kansas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  5 Michigan State              92  87    -5.01   +10.01
HOME   # 88 Vermont                     84  68   +13.80    +2.20
HOME   #165 Louisiana                   89  76   +20.05    -7.05
NEUT   # 22 Marquette                   77  68    +2.10    +6.90
NEUT   #  7 Tennessee                   87  81    -2.44    +8.44
HOME   #108 Stanford                    90  84   +15.20    -9.20
HOME   # 36 Wofford                     72  47    +7.77   +17.23
HOME   # 64 New Mexico State            63  60   +11.76    -8.76
HOME   # 19 Villanova                   74  71    +4.51    -1.51
HOME   #215 South Dakota                89  53   +23.20   +12.80
AWAY   # 49 Arizona State               76  80    +3.33    -7.33
HOME   #163 Eastern Michigan            87  63   +19.88    +4.12
HOME   # 32 Oklahoma                    70  63    +6.97    +0.03
AWAY   # 15 Iowa State                  60  77    -2.39   -14.61
HOME   # 40 TCU                         77  68    +8.21    +0.79
AWAY   # 43 Baylor                      73  68    +2.28    +2.72
HOME   # 29 Texas                       80  78    +6.52    -4.52
AWAY   # 66 West Virginia               64  65    +5.87    -6.87
HOME   # 15 Iowa State                  80  76    +3.87    +0.13
AWAY   #  6 Kentucky                    63  71    -5.68    -2.32
AWAY   # 29 Texas                       63  73    +0.26   -10.26
HOME   #  9 Texas Tech                  79  63    +1.60   +14.40
AWAY   # 21 Kansas State                67  74    -1.18    -5.82
HOME   # 72 Oklahoma State              84  72   +12.57    -0.57
AWAY   # 40 TCU                         82  77    +1.95    +3.05
HOME   # 66 West Virginia               78  53   +12.13   +12.87
AWAY   #  9 Texas Tech                  62  91    -4.66   -24.34
HOME   # 21 Kansas State                64  49    +5.08    +9.92
AWAY   # 72 Oklahoma State              72  67    +6.31    -1.31
AWAY   # 32 Oklahoma                    68  81    +0.71   -13.71
HOME   # 43 Baylor                      78  70    +8.54    -0.54
NEUT   # 29 Texas                       65  57    +3.39    +4.61
NEUT   # 66 West Virginia               88  74    +9.00    +5.00
NEUT   # 15 Iowa State                            +0.74             0.529

Here is Iowa State's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #333 Alabama State               79  53   +32.19    -6.19
HOME   # 75 Missouri                    76  59   +11.90    +5.10
HOME   #231 Texas Southern              85  73   +23.60   -11.60
NEUT   # 61 Arizona                     66  71    +7.56   -12.56
NEUT   # 86 Illinois                    84  68    +9.56    +6.44
NEUT   # 90 San Diego State             87  57   +10.14   +19.86
HOME   #183 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           82  55   +20.68    +6.32
HOME   #203 North Dakota State          81  59   +21.86    +0.14
AWAY   # 42 Iowa                        84  98    +1.44   -15.44
HOME   #338 Southern U.                101  65   +32.96    +3.04
NEUT   #123 Drake                       77  68   +12.63    -3.63
HOME   #298 Eastern Illinois           101  53   +27.56   +20.44
AWAY   # 72 Oklahoma State              69  63    +5.57    +0.43
HOME   # 11 Kansas                      77  60    +2.39   +14.61
AWAY   # 43 Baylor                      70  73    +1.54    -4.54
HOME   # 21 Kansas State                57  58    +4.34    -5.34
AWAY   #  9 Texas Tech                  68  64    -5.40    +9.40
HOME   # 72 Oklahoma State              72  59   +11.83    +1.17
AWAY   # 11 Kansas                      76  80    -3.87    -0.13
AWAY   # 45 Mississippi                 87  73    +1.96   +12.04
HOME   # 66 West Virginia               93  68   +11.39   +13.61
HOME   # 29 Texas                       65  60    +5.78    -0.78
AWAY   # 32 Oklahoma                    75  74    -0.03    +1.03
HOME   # 40 TCU                         83  92    +7.47   -16.47
AWAY   # 21 Kansas State                78  64    -1.92   +15.92
HOME   # 43 Baylor                      69  73    +7.80   -11.80
AWAY   # 40 TCU                         72  75    +1.21    -4.21
HOME   # 32 Oklahoma                    78  61    +6.23   +10.77
AWAY   # 29 Texas                       69  86    -0.48   -16.52
AWAY   # 66 West Virginia               75  90    +5.13   -20.13
HOME   #  9 Texas Tech                  73  80    +0.86    -7.86
NEUT   # 43 Baylor                      83  66    +4.67   +12.33
NEUT   # 21 Kansas State                63  59    +1.21    +2.79
NEUT   # 11 Kansas                                -0.74             0.471
The following user(s) said Thank You: sasnak, Bayhawk, gorillahawk, JayhawkChef, wardhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, newtonhawk, jaythawk1

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