×
Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Iowa State game
- asteroid
- Topic Author
- Offline
- Platinum Member
Less
More
- Posts: 588
- Thank you received: 3083
5 years 1 week ago #21998
by asteroid
Iowa State is not the Big 12's most inconsistent team, yet it somehow feels like
it. After all, midway through the season, the Cyclones were projected to win the
conference, and people like Fraschilla were saying that if the streak was to be
broken, Iowa State was the team to do it. Yet the Cyclones finished in fifth
place, losing five of their last six regular season conference games in the
process. Yet despite having lost both regular season games with Baylor, they
dominated the Bears in the tournament. Then they took down the 1 seed, setting
up today's championship game with Kansas.
Both teams have negative trends of virtually identical value, but neither is
statistically significant. Both teams have negative mental toughness ratings,
but Iowa State's is not statistically significant, while Kansas' is. Taken at
face value, they make Kansas a 0.1 point underdog, meaning overtime.
Only one prognosticator has Kansas as an underdog, with Dolphin favoring the
Cyclones by 0.3 points. The rest favor Kansas by anywhere from 0.1 points
(Pomeroy) to 9.5 points (Colley, though recall my concerns over the scaling
from rating units to points). The average favors Kansas by 2.4 points.
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats ISU KU Defensive Stats ISU KU
Points/Game 77.4 75.7 Opp Points/Game 68.4 69.8
Avg Score Margin +9.0 +5.8 Opp Effective FG % 48.8% 47.6%
Assist/Game 15.3 13.4 Off Rebounds/Gm 8.2 9.1
Total Rebouds/Gm 35.3 38.0 Def Rebounds/Gm 24.2 26.2
Effective FG % 54.9 52.7 Blocks/Game 4.6 3.9
Off Rebound % 26.9 28.2 Steals/Game 6.9 6.8
FTA/FGA 0.299 0.335 Personal Fouls/Gm 14.7 16.8
Turnover % 14.2% 16.4%
Common Opponents
================
There are eight common opponents, all in conference, plus the two head-to-head
games. For the regular season conference games, I'll use only the home-home and
road-road permutations, but for the conference tournament games, I'm comparing
those neutral court games to both the home and road regular season games, giving
us twenty six scores to compare:
KU +5 OSU on road ( +9 neutral court) KU +12 OSU at home ( +8 neutral court)
ISU +6 OSU on road (+10 neutral court) ISU +13 OSU at home ( +9 neutral court)
KU -1 ISU neutral ( -1 neutral court) KU -1 ISU neutral ( -1 neutral court)
KU +5 BU on road ( +9 neutral court) KU +8 BU at home ( +4 neutral court)
ISU -3 BU on road ( +1 neutral court) ISU -4 BU at home ( -8 neutral court)
KU +8 ISU neutral ( +8 neutral court) KU +12 ISU neutral (+12 neutral court)
KU +15 KSU at home (+11 neutral court) KU -7 KSU on road ( -3 neutral court)
ISU -1 KSU at home ( -5 neutral court) ISU +14 KSU on road (+18 neutral court)
KU +16 ISU neutral (+16 neutral court) KU -21 ISU neutral (-21 neutral court)
KU -29 TTU on road (-25 neutral court) KU +16 TTU at home (+12 neutral court)
ISU +4 TTU on road ( +8 neutral court) ISU -7 TTU at home (-11 neutral court)
KU -33 ISU neutral (-33 neutral court) KU +23 ISU neutral (+23 neutral court)
KU +25 WVU at home (+21 neutral court) KU -1 WVU on road ( +3 neutral court)
ISU +25 WVU at home (+21 neutral court) ISU -15 WVU on road (-11 neutral court)
KU 0 ISU neutral ( 0 neutral court) KU +14 ISU neutral (+14 neutral court)
KU +2 UT at home ( -2 neutral court) KU -10 UT on road ( -6 neutral court)
ISU +5 UT at home ( +1 neutral court) ISU -17 UT on road (-13 neutral court)
KU -3 ISU neutral ( -3 neutral court) KU +7 ISU neutral ( +7 neutral court)
KU -13 OU on road ( -9 neutral court) KU +7 OU at home ( +3 neutral court)
ISU +1 OU on road ( +5 neutral court) ISU +17 OU at home (+13 neutral court)
KU -14 ISU neutral (-14 neutral court) KU -10 ISU neutral (-10 neutral court)
KU +9 TCU at home ( +5 neutral court) KU +5 TCU on road ( +9 neutral court)
ISU -9 TCU at home (-13 neutral court) ISU -3 TCU on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU +18 ISU neutral (+18 neutral court) KU +8 ISU neutral ( +8 neutral court)
KU +5 BU on road ( +9 neutral court) KU +8 BU at home ( +4 neutral court)
ISU +17 BU neutral (+17 neutral court) ISU +17 BU neutral (+17 neutral court)
KU -8 ISU neutral ( -8 neutral court) KU -13 ISU neutral (-13 neutral court)
KU +15 KSU at home (+11 neutral court) KU -7 KSU on road ( -3 neutral court)
ISU +4 KSU neutral ( +4 neutral court) ISU +4 KSU neutral ( +4 neutral court)
KU +7 ISU neutral ( +7 neutral court) KU -7 ISU neutral ( -7 neutral court)
KU +8 UT neutral ( +8 neutral court) KU +8 UT neutral ( +8 neutral court)
ISU +5 UT at home ( +1 neutral court) ISU -17 UT on road (-13 neutral court)
KU +7 ISU neutral ( +7 neutral court) KU +21 ISU neutral (+21 neutral court)
KU +14 WVU neutral (+14 neutral court) KU +14 WVU neutral (+14 neutral court)
ISU +25 WVU at home (+21 neutral court) ISU -15 WVU on road (-11 neutral court)
KU -7 ISU neutral ( -7 neutral court) KU +25 ISU neutral (+25 neutral court)
KU -17 ISU on road (-13 neutral court) KU +4 ISU at home ( 0 neutral court)
KU -13 ISU neutral (-13 neutral court) KU 0 ISU neutral ( 0 neutral court)
Twelve of the comparisons favor Kansas, while twelve favor Iowa State; two are a
wash. The average is 1.35 points in favor of Kansas, but with a scatter of 14.3
points.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Nick Weiler-Babb (guard)
most points Marial Shayok (guard)
most rebounds Michael Jacobson (forward)
most assists Nick Weiler-Babb (guard)
most steals Tyrese Haliburton (guard)
most blocks Cameron Lard (forward)
most turnovers Marial Shayok (guard)
most fouls Cameron Lard (forward)
Reserve forward Zoran Talley is undergoing concussion protocol, and it isn't
known when he will be cleared to play. Reserve forward Solomon Young is out
for the rest of the season with a groin injury.
25-8 22-11
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Iowa State
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============= =============
Sagarin Overall +1.38 73 72 # 11 # 1 # 18 # 26
Sagarin Predictor +0.74 73 72 52.9 # 11 # 1 # 15 # 26
Sagarin Golden Mean +3.19 74 71 # 9 # 1 # 20 # 26
Sagarin Recent Games +2.98 74 71 # 17 # 1 # 33 # 26
Sagarin Eigenvector +4.48 75 70.5 67
Massey +5.00 77 72 68 # 12 # 3 # 23 # 32
Pomeroy +0.07 74 74 # 16 # 2 # 17 # 32
Greenfield +1.00 72.5 71.5 # 15 # 5 # 18 # 22
Dunkel +3.50 73 70 # 13 # 28
Vegas (via Dunkel) +1.00 76 75
Dolphin Predictive -0.34 75 75 48.8 # 18 # 10 # 17 # 23
Real Time +2.00 71 69 53.8 # 10 # 1 # 38 # 23
Seven Overtimes +2.00 74 72 73 # 7 # 3 # 36 # 20
DPPI +0.40 72 72 51.3 # 18 # 1 # 24 # 37
ESPN BPI +3.90 64.2 # 17 # 2 # 18 # 35
Whitlock +1.67 # 11 # 1 # 17 # 37
Colley Matrix +9.49 # 7 # 1 # 28 # 19
NCAA NET # 19 # 22
common opponents +1.35
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +2.43 73.8 71.9
scatter 2.33 1.6 1.7
Here is Kansas' season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 5 Michigan State 92 87 -5.01 +10.01
HOME # 88 Vermont 84 68 +13.80 +2.20
HOME #165 Louisiana 89 76 +20.05 -7.05
NEUT # 22 Marquette 77 68 +2.10 +6.90
NEUT # 7 Tennessee 87 81 -2.44 +8.44
HOME #108 Stanford 90 84 +15.20 -9.20
HOME # 36 Wofford 72 47 +7.77 +17.23
HOME # 64 New Mexico State 63 60 +11.76 -8.76
HOME # 19 Villanova 74 71 +4.51 -1.51
HOME #215 South Dakota 89 53 +23.20 +12.80
AWAY # 49 Arizona State 76 80 +3.33 -7.33
HOME #163 Eastern Michigan 87 63 +19.88 +4.12
HOME # 32 Oklahoma 70 63 +6.97 +0.03
AWAY # 15 Iowa State 60 77 -2.39 -14.61
HOME # 40 TCU 77 68 +8.21 +0.79
AWAY # 43 Baylor 73 68 +2.28 +2.72
HOME # 29 Texas 80 78 +6.52 -4.52
AWAY # 66 West Virginia 64 65 +5.87 -6.87
HOME # 15 Iowa State 80 76 +3.87 +0.13
AWAY # 6 Kentucky 63 71 -5.68 -2.32
AWAY # 29 Texas 63 73 +0.26 -10.26
HOME # 9 Texas Tech 79 63 +1.60 +14.40
AWAY # 21 Kansas State 67 74 -1.18 -5.82
HOME # 72 Oklahoma State 84 72 +12.57 -0.57
AWAY # 40 TCU 82 77 +1.95 +3.05
HOME # 66 West Virginia 78 53 +12.13 +12.87
AWAY # 9 Texas Tech 62 91 -4.66 -24.34
HOME # 21 Kansas State 64 49 +5.08 +9.92
AWAY # 72 Oklahoma State 72 67 +6.31 -1.31
AWAY # 32 Oklahoma 68 81 +0.71 -13.71
HOME # 43 Baylor 78 70 +8.54 -0.54
NEUT # 29 Texas 65 57 +3.39 +4.61
NEUT # 66 West Virginia 88 74 +9.00 +5.00
NEUT # 15 Iowa State +0.74 0.529
Here is Iowa State's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #333 Alabama State 79 53 +32.19 -6.19
HOME # 75 Missouri 76 59 +11.90 +5.10
HOME #231 Texas Southern 85 73 +23.60 -11.60
NEUT # 61 Arizona 66 71 +7.56 -12.56
NEUT # 86 Illinois 84 68 +9.56 +6.44
NEUT # 90 San Diego State 87 57 +10.14 +19.86
HOME #183 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha) 82 55 +20.68 +6.32
HOME #203 North Dakota State 81 59 +21.86 +0.14
AWAY # 42 Iowa 84 98 +1.44 -15.44
HOME #338 Southern U. 101 65 +32.96 +3.04
NEUT #123 Drake 77 68 +12.63 -3.63
HOME #298 Eastern Illinois 101 53 +27.56 +20.44
AWAY # 72 Oklahoma State 69 63 +5.57 +0.43
HOME # 11 Kansas 77 60 +2.39 +14.61
AWAY # 43 Baylor 70 73 +1.54 -4.54
HOME # 21 Kansas State 57 58 +4.34 -5.34
AWAY # 9 Texas Tech 68 64 -5.40 +9.40
HOME # 72 Oklahoma State 72 59 +11.83 +1.17
AWAY # 11 Kansas 76 80 -3.87 -0.13
AWAY # 45 Mississippi 87 73 +1.96 +12.04
HOME # 66 West Virginia 93 68 +11.39 +13.61
HOME # 29 Texas 65 60 +5.78 -0.78
AWAY # 32 Oklahoma 75 74 -0.03 +1.03
HOME # 40 TCU 83 92 +7.47 -16.47
AWAY # 21 Kansas State 78 64 -1.92 +15.92
HOME # 43 Baylor 69 73 +7.80 -11.80
AWAY # 40 TCU 72 75 +1.21 -4.21
HOME # 32 Oklahoma 78 61 +6.23 +10.77
AWAY # 29 Texas 69 86 -0.48 -16.52
AWAY # 66 West Virginia 75 90 +5.13 -20.13
HOME # 9 Texas Tech 73 80 +0.86 -7.86
NEUT # 43 Baylor 83 66 +4.67 +12.33
NEUT # 21 Kansas State 63 59 +1.21 +2.79
NEUT # 11 Kansas -0.74 0.471
The following user(s) said Thank You: sasnak, Bayhawk, gorillahawk, JayhawkChef, wardhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, newtonhawk, jaythawk1
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
Share this page: