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predictions for West Virginia game

  • asteroid
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2 months 4 days ago #21955 by asteroid
West Virginia is on a mission.  A mission from...

...John Denver, perhaps?

Huggy Bear wants to play in the NCAA Tournament, and he knows that the only way
to do that is to win the Big 12's automatic bid, which goes to the winner of the
conference's post-season tournament.  That incentive proved enough to take down
Texas Tech.  Will it be enough to take down Kansas as well?

Meanwhile, Kansas has some incentive of its own, having had the streak of
conference titles broken.  Winning the conference tournament is one way of
claiming to have won the Big 12, and it might help keep the Jayhawks in a
more favorable regional (think, Des Moines, Tulsa, Kansas City).  Which
incentive will prove to be the stronger motivating force?

Keep in mind that this will be the third game in three days for the Mountaineers
while only the second game in two days for the Jayhawks, so Kansas should have
the fresher legs.

Kansas still shows a negative trend, while West Virginia has a positive trend,
though neither is statistically significant.  Both teams have negative mental
toughness ratings with comparable uncertainties, making them of marginal
significance.  A slight edge to West Virginia here.  The net result is to
reduce the 9.0 margin for Kansas to 8.2 points.

The various prognosticators all pick Kansas, with Colley being the most
optimistic, though keep in mind my previous remarks about the scaling of
his ratings to points.  Dunkel and Sagarin's eignevector analysis both pick
Kansas by 15.5 points, while the most pessimistic is Sagarin's Recent Games
method, which makes Kansas just a 1 point favorite.  The second-most pessimistic
is Sagarin's Overall rating, which makes Kansas an 8.4 point favorite.  The
average is 11.2 points in favor of Kansas.

Whitlock's web site is back!  Unfortunately, his ratings haven't changed at all
since that second-last game of the conference season, so the prediction would
have been the same even if his web site was still "404 Not Found".  And once
again, I had to use Real Time's arbitrary pairing of teams to generate a
prediction from his ratings.  Massey curiously had a prediction for West Virginia,
but not for Kansas.  Ah, the post-season scramble to add all of those games with
pairings determined only the day before.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     WVU     KU       Defensive Stats       WVU     KU
Points/Game         73.1    75.3     Opp Points/Game       76.5    69.7
Avg Score Margin    -3.4    +5.6     Opp Effective FG %   51.8%   47.6%
Assist/Game         13.2    13.3     Off Rebounds/Gm       12.4     9.1
Total Rebouds/Gm    39.5    37.8     Def Rebounds/Gm       23.4    26.0
Effective FG %      47.6    52.5     Blocks/Game            3.5     3.8
Off Rebound %       35.5    28.1     Steals/Game            6.3     6.8
FTA/FGA            0.403   0.337     Personal Fouls/Gm     20.2    16.9
Turnover %         18.4%   16.4%

Common Opponents
================
There are nine common opponents, eight in conference plus Tennessee.  For the
regular season conference games, I'll use only the home-home and road-road
permutations, but for the conference tournament games, I'm comparing those
neutral court games to both the home and road regular season games, giving
us twenty five scores to compare:

KU   +6 Ten neutral ( +6 neutral court)
WVU -17 Ten on road (-13 neutral court)
KU  +19 WVU neutral (+19 neutral court)

KU  +16 TTU at home (+12 neutral court)     KU  -29 TTU on road (-25 neutral court)
WVU  -3 TTU at home ( -7 neutral court)     WVU -31 TTU on road (-27 neutral court)
KU  +19 WVU neutral (+19 neutral court)     KU   +2 WVU neutral ( +2 neutral court)

KU  -10 UT  on road ( -6 neutral court)     KU   +2 UT  at home ( -2 neutral court)
WVU  -7 UT  on road ( -3 neutral court)     WVU -22 UT  at home (-26 neutral court)
KU   -3 WVU neutral ( -3 neutral court)     KU  +24 WVU neutral (+24 neutral court)

KU   -7 KSU on road ( -3 neutral court)     KU  +15 KSU at home (+11 neutral court)
WVU  -2 KSU on road ( +2 neutral court)     WVU -14 KSU at home (-18 neutral court)
KU   -5 WVU neutral ( -5 neutral court)     KU  +29 WVU neutral (+29 neutral court)

KU  +12 OSU at home ( +8 neutral court)     KU   +5 OSU on road ( +9 neutral court)
WVU  -8 OSU at home (-12 neutral court)     WVU  -8 OSU on road ( -4 neutral court)
KU  +20 WVU neutral (+20 neutral court)     KU  +13 WVU neutral (+13 neutral court)

KU   +5 TCU on road ( +9 neutral court)     KU   +9 TCU at home ( +5 neutral court)
WVU -31 TCU on road (-27 neutral court)     WVU  +8 TCU at home ( +4 neutral court)
KU  +36 WVU neutral (+36 neutral court)     KU   +1 WVU neutral ( +1 neutral court)

KU   +8 BU  at home ( +4 neutral court)     KU   +5 BU  on road ( +9 neutral court)
WVU -12 BU  at home (-16 neutral court)     WVU  -7 BU  on road ( -3 neutral court)
KU  +20 WVU neutral (+20 neutral court)     KU  +12 WVU neutral (+12 neutral court)

KU  -17 ISU on road (-13 neutral court)     KU   +4 ISU at home (  0 neutral court)
WVU -25 ISU on road (-21 neutral court)     WVU +15 ISU at home (+11 neutral court)
KU   +8 WVU neutral ( +8 neutral court)     KU  -11 WVU neutral (-11 neutral court)

KU   +7 OU  at home ( +3 neutral court)     KU  -13 OU  on road ( -9 neutral court)
WVU  +8 OU  at home ( +4 neutral court)     WVU -12 OU  on road ( -8 neutral court)
KU   -1 WVU neutral ( -1 neutral court)     KU   -1 WVU neutral ( -1 neutral court)

KU   +7 OU  at home ( +3 neutral court)     KU  -13 OU  on road ( -9 neutral court)
WVU  +1 OU  neutral ( +1 neutral court)     WVU  +1 OU  neutral ( +1 neutral court)
KU   +2 WVU neutral ( +2 neutral court)     KU  -10 WVU neutral (-10 neutral court)

KU  +16 TTU at home (+12 neutral court)     KU  -29 TTU on road (-25 neutral court)
WVU  +5 TTU neutral ( +5 neutral court)     WVU  +5 TTU neutral ( +5 neutral court)
KU   +7 WVU neutral ( +7 neutral court)     KU  -30 WVU neutral (-30 neutral court)

KU   +8 UT  neutral ( +8 neutral court)     KU   +8 UT  neutral ( +8 neutral court)
WVU  -7 UT  on road ( -3 neutral court)     WVU -22 UT  at home (-26 neutral court)
KU  +11 WVU neutral (+11 neutral court)     KU  +34 WVU neutral (+34 neutral court)

KU   -1 WVU on road ( +3 neutral court)     KU  +25 WVU at home (+21 neutral court)
KU   +3 WVU neutral ( +3 neutral court)     KU  +21 WVU neutral (+21 neutral court)

Eighteen of the comparisons favor Kansas, while seven favor West Virginia.  The
average is 8.8 points in favor of Kansas, but with a scatter of 15.3 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Esa Ahmad (forward)
most points        Sagaba Konate (forward)
most rebounds      Derek Culver (forward)
most assists       James Bolden (guard)
most steals        James Bolden (guard)
most blocks        Sagaba Konate (forward)
most turnovers     Esa Ahmad (forward)
most fouls         Sagaba Konate (forward)

As we already know, Ahmad was dismissed from the team along with Harris, who
also played big minutes.  Konate hasn't played in a long time, but he was
reportedly in uniform for yesterday's game, but did not play.  It's unclear
whether that might mean he's close to returning to action.  Reserve guard
Taevon Horton did not play in yesterday's game due to an injury.  It's also
unclear whether he's available for today's game.

                                                          24-8            14-19
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       West Virginia
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall         +8.42   79   71                # 13   #  1     # 62   # 15 
Sagarin Predictor       +8.97   79   70       81.5     # 12   #  1     # 68   # 15 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +9.76   80   70                #  9   #  1     # 63   # 15 
Sagarin Recent Games    +0.96   75   74                # 27   #  1     # 35   # 15
Sagarin Eigenvector    +15.51   83   67       90       
Massey                  +9.00   80   71       81       # 15   #  3     # 71   # 27
Pomeroy                +10.04   79   69                # 16   #  1     # 95   # 15
Greenfield             +10.00   78.5 68.5              # 15   #  5     # 78   # 35
Dunkel                 +15.50   78   63                # 13            # 97       
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +10.50   79   68.5                                         
Dolphin Predictive      +9.14   80   71       78.3     # 21   #  9     # 82   # 39
Real Time               +9.00   75   66       68.6     # 10   #  1     #132   #  6 
Seven Overtimes        +12.00   80   68       86       #  7   #  3     # 88   # 15
DPPI                   +10.50   78   67.5     84.3     #      #        #      #    
ESPN BPI               +12.80                 87.1     # 16   #  1     # 92   # 15
Whitlock               +15.26                          # 11   #  1     #113   # 13
Colley Matrix          +22.24                          #  8   #  1     #110   #  5
NCAA NET                                               # 21            #105
common opponents        +8.80                                                                     
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                +11.2    78.8 68.9   149.53
scatter                  4.3     2.0  2.7   147.34

Here is Kansas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  5 Michigan State              92  87    -5.14   +10.14
HOME   # 89 Vermont                     84  68   +13.77    +2.23
HOME   #166 Louisiana                   89  76   +20.12    -7.12
NEUT   # 21 Marquette                   77  68    +1.68    +7.32
NEUT   #  7 Tennessee                   87  81    -2.42    +8.42
HOME   #108 Stanford                    90  84   +15.31    -9.31
HOME   # 37 Wofford                     72  47    +7.76   +17.24
HOME   # 64 New Mexico State            63  60   +11.65    -8.65
HOME   # 17 Villanova                   74  71    +4.23    -1.23
HOME   #213 South Dakota                89  53   +23.19   +12.81
AWAY   # 50 Arizona State               76  80    +3.59    -7.59
HOME   #161 Eastern Michigan            87  63   +19.84    +4.16
HOME   # 33 Oklahoma                    70  63    +6.95    +0.05
AWAY   # 15 Iowa State                  60  77    -2.26   -14.74
HOME   # 41 TCU                         77  68    +8.19    +0.81
AWAY   # 43 Baylor                      73  68    +2.28    +2.72
HOME   # 29 Texas                       80  78    +6.48    -4.48
AWAY   # 68 West Virginia               64  65    +5.85    -6.85
HOME   # 15 Iowa State                  80  76    +3.98    +0.02
AWAY   #  6 Kentucky                    63  71    -5.60    -2.40
AWAY   # 29 Texas                       63  73    +0.24   -10.24
HOME   # 10 Texas Tech                  79  63    +1.62   +14.38
AWAY   # 22 Kansas State                67  74    -1.38    -5.62
HOME   # 74 Oklahoma State              84  72   +12.59    -0.59
AWAY   # 41 TCU                         82  77    +1.95    +3.05
HOME   # 68 West Virginia               78  53   +12.09   +12.91
AWAY   # 10 Texas Tech                  62  91    -4.62   -24.38
HOME   # 22 Kansas State                64  49    +4.86   +10.14
AWAY   # 74 Oklahoma State              72  67    +6.35    -1.35
AWAY   # 33 Oklahoma                    68  81    +0.71   -13.71
HOME   # 43 Baylor                      78  70    +8.52    -0.52
NEUT   # 29 Texas                       65  57    +3.36    +4.64
NEUT   # 68 West Virginia                         +8.97             0.815

Here is West Virginia's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   # 28 Buffalo                     94  99    -2.66    -2.34
NEUT   #274 Monmouth-NJ                 71  53   +14.69    +3.31
NEUT   #113 Western Kentucky            57  63    +3.77    -9.77
NEUT   #147 Saint Joseph's-Pa.          97  90    +6.51    +0.49
HOME   #206 Valparaiso                  88  76   +13.70    -1.70
HOME   #193 Rider                       92  78   +13.08    +0.92
HOME   #278 Youngstown State           106  72   +18.07   +15.93
NEUT   # 27 Florida                     56  66    -5.84    -4.16
HOME   # 90 Pittsburgh                  69  59    +5.04    +4.96
NEUT   #115 Rhode Island                70  83    +3.87   -16.87
HOME   #133 Jacksonville State          74  72    +8.33    -6.33
HOME   #160 Lehigh                      78  68   +10.84    -0.84
HOME   # 10 Texas Tech                  59  62    -7.35    +4.35
AWAY   # 29 Texas                       54  61    -8.73    +1.73
AWAY   # 22 Kansas State                69  71   -10.35    +8.35
HOME   # 74 Oklahoma State              77  85    +3.62   -11.62
AWAY   # 41 TCU                         67  98    -7.02   -23.98
HOME   # 12 Kansas                      65  64    -5.85    +6.85
HOME   # 43 Baylor                      73  85    -0.45   -11.55
AWAY   #  7 Tennessee                   66  83   -14.51    -2.49
AWAY   # 15 Iowa State                  68  93   -11.23   -13.77
HOME   # 33 Oklahoma                    79  71    -2.02   +10.02
AWAY   # 10 Texas Tech                  50  81   -13.59   -17.41
HOME   # 29 Texas                       53  75    -2.49   -19.51
AWAY   # 12 Kansas                      53  78   -12.09   -12.91
HOME   # 22 Kansas State                51  65    -4.11    -9.89
AWAY   # 43 Baylor                      75  82    -6.69    -0.31
HOME   # 41 TCU                        104  96    -0.78    +8.78
AWAY   # 33 Oklahoma                    80  92    -8.26    -3.74
HOME   # 15 Iowa State                  90  75    -4.99   +19.99
AWAY   # 74 Oklahoma State              77  85    -2.62    -5.38
NEUT   # 33 Oklahoma                    72  71    -5.14    +6.14
NEUT   # 10 Texas Tech                  79  74   -10.47   +15.47
NEUT   # 12 Kansas                                -8.97             0.185
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, gorillahawk, wardhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, newtonhawk

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