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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for West Virginia game
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5 years 1 month ago #21955
by asteroid
West Virginia is on a mission. A mission from...
...John Denver, perhaps?
Huggy Bear wants to play in the NCAA Tournament, and he knows that the only way
to do that is to win the Big 12's automatic bid, which goes to the winner of the
conference's post-season tournament. That incentive proved enough to take down
Texas Tech. Will it be enough to take down Kansas as well?
Meanwhile, Kansas has some incentive of its own, having had the streak of
conference titles broken. Winning the conference tournament is one way of
claiming to have won the Big 12, and it might help keep the Jayhawks in a
more favorable regional (think, Des Moines, Tulsa, Kansas City). Which
incentive will prove to be the stronger motivating force?
Keep in mind that this will be the third game in three days for the Mountaineers
while only the second game in two days for the Jayhawks, so Kansas should have
the fresher legs.
Kansas still shows a negative trend, while West Virginia has a positive trend,
though neither is statistically significant. Both teams have negative mental
toughness ratings with comparable uncertainties, making them of marginal
significance. A slight edge to West Virginia here. The net result is to
reduce the 9.0 margin for Kansas to 8.2 points.
The various prognosticators all pick Kansas, with Colley being the most
optimistic, though keep in mind my previous remarks about the scaling of
his ratings to points. Dunkel and Sagarin's eignevector analysis both pick
Kansas by 15.5 points, while the most pessimistic is Sagarin's Recent Games
method, which makes Kansas just a 1 point favorite. The second-most pessimistic
is Sagarin's Overall rating, which makes Kansas an 8.4 point favorite. The
average is 11.2 points in favor of Kansas.
Whitlock's web site is back! Unfortunately, his ratings haven't changed at all
since that second-last game of the conference season, so the prediction would
have been the same even if his web site was still "404 Not Found". And once
again, I had to use Real Time's arbitrary pairing of teams to generate a
prediction from his ratings. Massey curiously had a prediction for West Virginia,
but not for Kansas. Ah, the post-season scramble to add all of those games with
pairings determined only the day before.
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats WVU KU Defensive Stats WVU KU
Points/Game 73.1 75.3 Opp Points/Game 76.5 69.7
Avg Score Margin -3.4 +5.6 Opp Effective FG % 51.8% 47.6%
Assist/Game 13.2 13.3 Off Rebounds/Gm 12.4 9.1
Total Rebouds/Gm 39.5 37.8 Def Rebounds/Gm 23.4 26.0
Effective FG % 47.6 52.5 Blocks/Game 3.5 3.8
Off Rebound % 35.5 28.1 Steals/Game 6.3 6.8
FTA/FGA 0.403 0.337 Personal Fouls/Gm 20.2 16.9
Turnover % 18.4% 16.4%
Common Opponents
================
There are nine common opponents, eight in conference plus Tennessee. For the
regular season conference games, I'll use only the home-home and road-road
permutations, but for the conference tournament games, I'm comparing those
neutral court games to both the home and road regular season games, giving
us twenty five scores to compare:
KU +6 Ten neutral ( +6 neutral court)
WVU -17 Ten on road (-13 neutral court)
KU +19 WVU neutral (+19 neutral court)
KU +16 TTU at home (+12 neutral court) KU -29 TTU on road (-25 neutral court)
WVU -3 TTU at home ( -7 neutral court) WVU -31 TTU on road (-27 neutral court)
KU +19 WVU neutral (+19 neutral court) KU +2 WVU neutral ( +2 neutral court)
KU -10 UT on road ( -6 neutral court) KU +2 UT at home ( -2 neutral court)
WVU -7 UT on road ( -3 neutral court) WVU -22 UT at home (-26 neutral court)
KU -3 WVU neutral ( -3 neutral court) KU +24 WVU neutral (+24 neutral court)
KU -7 KSU on road ( -3 neutral court) KU +15 KSU at home (+11 neutral court)
WVU -2 KSU on road ( +2 neutral court) WVU -14 KSU at home (-18 neutral court)
KU -5 WVU neutral ( -5 neutral court) KU +29 WVU neutral (+29 neutral court)
KU +12 OSU at home ( +8 neutral court) KU +5 OSU on road ( +9 neutral court)
WVU -8 OSU at home (-12 neutral court) WVU -8 OSU on road ( -4 neutral court)
KU +20 WVU neutral (+20 neutral court) KU +13 WVU neutral (+13 neutral court)
KU +5 TCU on road ( +9 neutral court) KU +9 TCU at home ( +5 neutral court)
WVU -31 TCU on road (-27 neutral court) WVU +8 TCU at home ( +4 neutral court)
KU +36 WVU neutral (+36 neutral court) KU +1 WVU neutral ( +1 neutral court)
KU +8 BU at home ( +4 neutral court) KU +5 BU on road ( +9 neutral court)
WVU -12 BU at home (-16 neutral court) WVU -7 BU on road ( -3 neutral court)
KU +20 WVU neutral (+20 neutral court) KU +12 WVU neutral (+12 neutral court)
KU -17 ISU on road (-13 neutral court) KU +4 ISU at home ( 0 neutral court)
WVU -25 ISU on road (-21 neutral court) WVU +15 ISU at home (+11 neutral court)
KU +8 WVU neutral ( +8 neutral court) KU -11 WVU neutral (-11 neutral court)
KU +7 OU at home ( +3 neutral court) KU -13 OU on road ( -9 neutral court)
WVU +8 OU at home ( +4 neutral court) WVU -12 OU on road ( -8 neutral court)
KU -1 WVU neutral ( -1 neutral court) KU -1 WVU neutral ( -1 neutral court)
KU +7 OU at home ( +3 neutral court) KU -13 OU on road ( -9 neutral court)
WVU +1 OU neutral ( +1 neutral court) WVU +1 OU neutral ( +1 neutral court)
KU +2 WVU neutral ( +2 neutral court) KU -10 WVU neutral (-10 neutral court)
KU +16 TTU at home (+12 neutral court) KU -29 TTU on road (-25 neutral court)
WVU +5 TTU neutral ( +5 neutral court) WVU +5 TTU neutral ( +5 neutral court)
KU +7 WVU neutral ( +7 neutral court) KU -30 WVU neutral (-30 neutral court)
KU +8 UT neutral ( +8 neutral court) KU +8 UT neutral ( +8 neutral court)
WVU -7 UT on road ( -3 neutral court) WVU -22 UT at home (-26 neutral court)
KU +11 WVU neutral (+11 neutral court) KU +34 WVU neutral (+34 neutral court)
KU -1 WVU on road ( +3 neutral court) KU +25 WVU at home (+21 neutral court)
KU +3 WVU neutral ( +3 neutral court) KU +21 WVU neutral (+21 neutral court)
Eighteen of the comparisons favor Kansas, while seven favor West Virginia. The
average is 8.8 points in favor of Kansas, but with a scatter of 15.3 points.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Esa Ahmad (forward)
most points Sagaba Konate (forward)
most rebounds Derek Culver (forward)
most assists James Bolden (guard)
most steals James Bolden (guard)
most blocks Sagaba Konate (forward)
most turnovers Esa Ahmad (forward)
most fouls Sagaba Konate (forward)
As we already know, Ahmad was dismissed from the team along with Harris, who
also played big minutes. Konate hasn't played in a long time, but he was
reportedly in uniform for yesterday's game, but did not play. It's unclear
whether that might mean he's close to returning to action. Reserve guard
Taevon Horton did not play in yesterday's game due to an injury. It's also
unclear whether he's available for today's game.
24-8 14-19
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas West Virginia
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============= =============
Sagarin Overall +8.42 79 71 # 13 # 1 # 62 # 15
Sagarin Predictor +8.97 79 70 81.5 # 12 # 1 # 68 # 15
Sagarin Golden Mean +9.76 80 70 # 9 # 1 # 63 # 15
Sagarin Recent Games +0.96 75 74 # 27 # 1 # 35 # 15
Sagarin Eigenvector +15.51 83 67 90
Massey +9.00 80 71 81 # 15 # 3 # 71 # 27
Pomeroy +10.04 79 69 # 16 # 1 # 95 # 15
Greenfield +10.00 78.5 68.5 # 15 # 5 # 78 # 35
Dunkel +15.50 78 63 # 13 # 97
Vegas (via Dunkel) +10.50 79 68.5
Dolphin Predictive +9.14 80 71 78.3 # 21 # 9 # 82 # 39
Real Time +9.00 75 66 68.6 # 10 # 1 #132 # 6
Seven Overtimes +12.00 80 68 86 # 7 # 3 # 88 # 15
DPPI +10.50 78 67.5 84.3 # # # #
ESPN BPI +12.80 87.1 # 16 # 1 # 92 # 15
Whitlock +15.26 # 11 # 1 #113 # 13
Colley Matrix +22.24 # 8 # 1 #110 # 5
NCAA NET # 21 #105
common opponents +8.80
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +11.2 78.8 68.9 149.53
scatter 4.3 2.0 2.7 147.34
Here is Kansas' season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 5 Michigan State 92 87 -5.14 +10.14
HOME # 89 Vermont 84 68 +13.77 +2.23
HOME #166 Louisiana 89 76 +20.12 -7.12
NEUT # 21 Marquette 77 68 +1.68 +7.32
NEUT # 7 Tennessee 87 81 -2.42 +8.42
HOME #108 Stanford 90 84 +15.31 -9.31
HOME # 37 Wofford 72 47 +7.76 +17.24
HOME # 64 New Mexico State 63 60 +11.65 -8.65
HOME # 17 Villanova 74 71 +4.23 -1.23
HOME #213 South Dakota 89 53 +23.19 +12.81
AWAY # 50 Arizona State 76 80 +3.59 -7.59
HOME #161 Eastern Michigan 87 63 +19.84 +4.16
HOME # 33 Oklahoma 70 63 +6.95 +0.05
AWAY # 15 Iowa State 60 77 -2.26 -14.74
HOME # 41 TCU 77 68 +8.19 +0.81
AWAY # 43 Baylor 73 68 +2.28 +2.72
HOME # 29 Texas 80 78 +6.48 -4.48
AWAY # 68 West Virginia 64 65 +5.85 -6.85
HOME # 15 Iowa State 80 76 +3.98 +0.02
AWAY # 6 Kentucky 63 71 -5.60 -2.40
AWAY # 29 Texas 63 73 +0.24 -10.24
HOME # 10 Texas Tech 79 63 +1.62 +14.38
AWAY # 22 Kansas State 67 74 -1.38 -5.62
HOME # 74 Oklahoma State 84 72 +12.59 -0.59
AWAY # 41 TCU 82 77 +1.95 +3.05
HOME # 68 West Virginia 78 53 +12.09 +12.91
AWAY # 10 Texas Tech 62 91 -4.62 -24.38
HOME # 22 Kansas State 64 49 +4.86 +10.14
AWAY # 74 Oklahoma State 72 67 +6.35 -1.35
AWAY # 33 Oklahoma 68 81 +0.71 -13.71
HOME # 43 Baylor 78 70 +8.52 -0.52
NEUT # 29 Texas 65 57 +3.36 +4.64
NEUT # 68 West Virginia +8.97 0.815
Here is West Virginia's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME # 28 Buffalo 94 99 -2.66 -2.34
NEUT #274 Monmouth-NJ 71 53 +14.69 +3.31
NEUT #113 Western Kentucky 57 63 +3.77 -9.77
NEUT #147 Saint Joseph's-Pa. 97 90 +6.51 +0.49
HOME #206 Valparaiso 88 76 +13.70 -1.70
HOME #193 Rider 92 78 +13.08 +0.92
HOME #278 Youngstown State 106 72 +18.07 +15.93
NEUT # 27 Florida 56 66 -5.84 -4.16
HOME # 90 Pittsburgh 69 59 +5.04 +4.96
NEUT #115 Rhode Island 70 83 +3.87 -16.87
HOME #133 Jacksonville State 74 72 +8.33 -6.33
HOME #160 Lehigh 78 68 +10.84 -0.84
HOME # 10 Texas Tech 59 62 -7.35 +4.35
AWAY # 29 Texas 54 61 -8.73 +1.73
AWAY # 22 Kansas State 69 71 -10.35 +8.35
HOME # 74 Oklahoma State 77 85 +3.62 -11.62
AWAY # 41 TCU 67 98 -7.02 -23.98
HOME # 12 Kansas 65 64 -5.85 +6.85
HOME # 43 Baylor 73 85 -0.45 -11.55
AWAY # 7 Tennessee 66 83 -14.51 -2.49
AWAY # 15 Iowa State 68 93 -11.23 -13.77
HOME # 33 Oklahoma 79 71 -2.02 +10.02
AWAY # 10 Texas Tech 50 81 -13.59 -17.41
HOME # 29 Texas 53 75 -2.49 -19.51
AWAY # 12 Kansas 53 78 -12.09 -12.91
HOME # 22 Kansas State 51 65 -4.11 -9.89
AWAY # 43 Baylor 75 82 -6.69 -0.31
HOME # 41 TCU 104 96 -0.78 +8.78
AWAY # 33 Oklahoma 80 92 -8.26 -3.74
HOME # 15 Iowa State 90 75 -4.99 +19.99
AWAY # 74 Oklahoma State 77 85 -2.62 -5.38
NEUT # 33 Oklahoma 72 71 -5.14 +6.14
NEUT # 10 Texas Tech 79 74 -10.47 +15.47
NEUT # 12 Kansas -8.97 0.185
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