predictions for Baylor game

When was the last time Kansas lost on Senior Day?

But it's not Senior Day, you argue, because we have no seniors on the team,
at least none who aren't taking a leave of absence.

So, we're not playing for the seniors, we're not playing for a conference
championship, we're not playing to get off the bubble for the NCAA tournament.
What are we playing for?  Without motivation, the Jayhawks could come out
flat.  Then again, you look at what happened to Baylor at home against the
Cowboys earlier this week, and you wonder.

Well, tip-off is less than two hours away, and I've been up all night
chasing asteroids, so enough chit-chat.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      BU     KU       Defensive Stats        BU     KU
Points/Game         71.9    75.5     Opp Points/Game       66.3    70.1
Avg Score Margin    +5.6    +5.4     Opp Effective FG %   48.1%   48.0%
Assist/Game         14.1    13.4     Off Rebounds/Gm       11.5     9.0
Total Rebouds/Gm    38.1    37.6     Def Rebounds/Gm       23.1    25.8
Effective FG %      51.3    52.9     Blocks/Game            4.8     3.7
Off Rebound %       36.5    27.8     Steals/Game            6.2     6.8
FTA/FGA            0.330   0.330     Personal Fouls/Gm     18.7    17.0
Turnover %         16.5%   16.5%

Common Opponents
================
There are nine common opponents, eight in conference plus South Dakota.  That gives
us eighteen scores to compare:

KU  +36 SDU at home (+32 neutral court)
BU   +6 SDU at home ( +2 neutral court)
KU  +34 BU  at home (+30 neutral court)

KU   +5 TCU on road ( +9 neutral court)     KU   +9 TCU at home ( +5 neutral court)
BU   -4 TCU on road (  0 neutral court)     BU  +26 TCU at home (+22 neutral court)
KU  +13 BU  at home ( +9 neutral court)     KU  -13 BU  at home (-17 neutral court)

KU   +4 ISU at home (  0 neutral court)     KU  -17 ISU on road (-13 neutral court)
BU   +3 ISU at home ( -1 neutral court)     BU   +4 ISU on road ( +8 neutral court)
KU   +5 BU  at home ( +1 neutral court)     KU  -17 BU  at home (-21 neutral court)

KU   +5 OSU on road ( +9 neutral court)     KU  +12 OSU at home ( +8 neutral court)
BU   +4 OSU on road ( +8 neutral court)     BU   -3 OSU at home ( -7 neutral court)
KU   +5 BU  at home ( +1 neutral court)     KU  +19 BU  at home (+15 neutral court)

KU  +16 TTU at home (+12 neutral court)     KU  -29 TTU on road (-25 neutral court)
BU  +11 TTU at home ( +7 neutral court)     BU  -25 TTU on road (-21 neutral court)
KU   +9 BU  at home ( +5 neutral court)     KU    0 BU  at home ( -4 neutral court)

KU   -1 WVU on road ( +3 neutral court)     KU  +25 WVU at home (+21 neutral court)
BU  +12 WVU on road (+16 neutral court)     BU   +7 WVU at home ( +3 neutral court)
KU   -9 BU  at home (-13 neutral court)     KU  +22 BU  at home (+18 neutral court)

KU  -13 OU  on road ( -9 neutral court)     KU   +7 OU  at home ( +3 neutral court)
BU  +30 OU  on road (+34 neutral court)     BU   +6 OU  at home ( +2 neutral court)
KU  -39 BU  at home (-43 neutral court)     KU   +5 BU  at home ( +1 neutral court)

KU  -10 UT  on road ( -6 neutral court)     KU   +2 UT  at home ( -2 neutral court)
BU  -12 UT  on road ( -8 neutral court)     BU   +1 UT  at home ( -3 neutral court)
KU   +6 BU  at home ( +2 neutral court)     KU   +5 BU  at home ( +1 neutral court)

KU  +15 KSU at home (+11 neutral court)     KU   -7 KSU on road ( -3 neutral court)
BU   -7 KSU at home (-11 neutral court)     BU   -6 KSU on road ( -2 neutral court)
KU  +26 BU  at home (+22 neutral court)     KU   +3 BU  at home ( -1 neutral court)

KU   +5 BU  on road ( +9 neutral court)
KU  +13 BU  at home ( +9 neutral court)

Thirteen of the comparisons favor Kansas, while four favor Baylor; one is a wash.
The average is 4.8 points in favor of Kansas, but with a scatter of 16.9 points,
largely due to the Oklahoma road game, South Dakota home game, Kansas State home
game, West Virginia home game comparisons.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Makai Mason (guard)
most points        Tristan Clark (forward)
most rebounds      Mark Vital (guard)
most assists       Makai Mason (guard)
most steals        King McClure (guard)
most blocks        Tristan Clark (forward)
most turnovers     Makai Mason (guard)
most fouls         Tristan Clark (forward)

Forward Tristan Clark is out for the rest of the season following knee surgery.
That's why Self isn't using the injury to Doke as an excuse for not winning
the conference; most teams have had injury issues.

                                                          22-8            19-11
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas           Baylor
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall         +7.89   75   67                # 13   #  1     # 37   # 40 
Sagarin Predictor       +8.25   75   67       76.9     # 12   #  1     # 38   # 40 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +8.59   75   67                # 10   #  1     # 35   # 40 
Sagarin Recent Games    +5.77   74   68                # 36   #  1     # 60   # 40
Sagarin Eigenvector    +11.51   77   65       84       
Massey                  +8.00   76   68       79       # 16   #  2     # 42   # 50
Pomeroy                 +6.47   73   66                # 16   #  1     # 37   # 52
Greenfield              +7.50   75   67.5              # 15   #  4     # 41   # 42
Dunkel                  +9.50   75   66                # 11            # 31       
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +7.00   75   68                                           
Dolphin Predictive      +5.90   74   68       69.8     # 19   #  7     # 38   # 38
Real Time              +11.00   80   69       72.6     # 11   #  1     # 53   # 55 
Seven Overtimes        +10.00   76   66       79       #  5   #  3     # 73   # 46
DPPI                    +5.80   74.5 69       68.6     # 24   #  1     # 40   # 51 
ESPN BPI                +8.80                 79.8     # 17   #  1     # 38   # 52
Whitlock                +9.34                          # 11   #  1     #      #   
Colley Matrix          +15.36                          # 10   #  1     # 41   # 42
NCAA NET                                               # 18            # 37
common opponents        +4.83                                                                     
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                 +8.4    75.3 67.3
scatter                  2.5     1.7  1.2

Here is Kansas' season; the season record projection remains at 23-8:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  4 Michigan State              92  87    -5.01   +10.01
HOME   # 90 Vermont                     84  68   +13.78    +2.22
HOME   #172 Louisiana                   89  76   +20.52    -7.52
NEUT   # 20 Marquette                   77  68    +1.99    +7.01
NEUT   #  7 Tennessee                   87  81    -2.38    +8.38
HOME   #106 Stanford                    90  84   +14.95    -8.95
HOME   # 42 Wofford                     72  47    +8.61   +16.39
HOME   # 60 New Mexico State            63  60   +11.37    -8.37
HOME   # 16 Villanova                   74  71    +4.11    -1.11
HOME   #203 South Dakota                89  53   +22.57   +13.43
AWAY   # 53 Arizona State               76  80    +3.81    -7.81
HOME   #153 Eastern Michigan            87  63   +19.16    +4.84
HOME   # 28 Oklahoma                    70  63    +6.17    +0.83
AWAY   # 15 Iowa State                  60  77    -2.27   -14.73
HOME   # 39 TCU                         77  68    +8.32    +0.68
AWAY   # 38 Baylor                      73  68    +2.02    +2.98
HOME   # 27 Texas                       80  78    +5.94    -3.94
AWAY   # 72 West Virginia               64  65    +6.20    -7.20
HOME   # 15 Iowa State                  80  76    +3.95    +0.05
AWAY   #  6 Kentucky                    63  71    -5.55    -2.45
AWAY   # 27 Texas                       63  73    -0.28    -9.72
HOME   #  9 Texas Tech                  79  63    +1.37   +14.63
AWAY   # 21 Kansas State                67  74    -0.99    -6.01
HOME   # 76 Oklahoma State              84  72   +12.56    -0.56
AWAY   # 39 TCU                         82  77    +2.10    +2.90
HOME   # 72 West Virginia               78  53   +12.42   +12.58
AWAY   #  9 Texas Tech                  62  91    -4.85   -24.15
HOME   # 21 Kansas State                64  49    +5.23    +9.77
AWAY   # 76 Oklahoma State              72  67    +6.34    -1.34
AWAY   # 28 Oklahoma                    68  81    -0.05   -12.95
HOME   # 38 Baylor                                +8.24             0.769

Here is Baylor's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #226 Texas Southern              69  72   +18.72   -21.72
HOME   #340 Southern U.                 80  53   +29.37    -2.37
HOME   #261 Prairie View A&M            91  80   +20.88    -9.88
HOME   #318 Nicholls State              81  54   +25.21    +1.79
NEUT   # 44 Mississippi                 70  78    +0.68    -8.68
NEUT   #150 George Mason                72  61   +10.36    +0.64
HOME   #203 South Dakota                63  57   +17.44   -11.44
AWAY   #101 Wichita State               63  71    +3.00   -11.00
AWAY   # 55 Arizona                     58  49    -0.68    +9.68
HOME   #285 Stephen F. Austin           58  59   +22.37   -23.37
HOME   # 45 Oregon                      57  47    +3.93    +6.07
HOME   #270 New Orleans                 84  44   +21.36   +18.64
AWAY   # 39 TCU                         81  85    -3.03    -0.97
HOME   # 15 Iowa State                  73  70    -1.18    +4.18
HOME   # 12 Kansas                      68  73    -2.02    -2.98
AWAY   # 76 Oklahoma State              73  69    +1.21    +2.79
HOME   #  9 Texas Tech                  73  62    -3.76   +14.76
AWAY   # 72 West Virginia               85  73    +1.07   +10.93
HOME   # 54 Alabama                     73  68    +5.31    -0.31
AWAY   # 28 Oklahoma                    77  47    -5.18   +35.18
HOME   # 39 TCU                         90  64    +3.19   +22.81
AWAY   # 27 Texas                       72  84    -5.41    -6.59
HOME   # 21 Kansas State                63  70    +0.10    -7.10
HOME   # 28 Oklahoma                    59  53    +1.04    +4.96
AWAY   #  9 Texas Tech                  61  86    -9.98   -15.02
AWAY   # 15 Iowa State                  73  69    -7.40   +11.40
HOME   # 72 West Virginia               82  75    +7.29    -0.29
HOME   # 27 Texas                       84  83    +0.81    +0.19
AWAY   # 21 Kansas State                60  66    -6.12    +0.12
HOME   # 76 Oklahoma State              64  67    +7.43   -10.43
AWAY   # 12 Kansas                                -8.24             0.231