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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Big 12 projection, Round 18
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6 years 8 months ago #21823
by asteroid
Oklahoma's home win over Kansas coupled with TCU's home loss to Kansas State enabled the
Sooners to take over seventh place from the Horned Frogs. Kansas State's road win was
worth more than Texas Tech's home win, which allowed the Wildcats to take over the top
spot from the Red Raiders. Amazingly, both cellar dwellars won, so last place will be
decided by a head-to-head game this Saturday. The standings are now quite symmetric.
Init. Rnd 1 Rnd 2 Rnd 3 Rnd 4 Rnd 5 Rnd 6 Rnd 7 Rnd 8 Rnd 9
Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj.
Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins
-------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Kansas State 7.81 6.43 6.43 6.63 7.59 8.85 9.59 10.43 10.21 10.87
Texas Tech 11.96 12.28 12.35 12.71 13.27 12.28 11.39 10.65 11.08 10.71
Kansas 12.80 13.08 12.07 12.50 12.87 13.01 12.20 12.60 11.89 12.31
Baylor 6.32 6.33 6.24 7.06 6.72 7.51 8.33 9.09 10.29 10.83
Iowa State 10.49 10.85 11.75 11.07 10.07 10.97 11.17 10.81 11.27 11.56
Texas 8.51 9.83 10.18 9.36 8.73 8.61 9.04 8.67 9.08 8.78
Oklahoma 10.61 10.41 10.34 10.10 10.44 9.05 8.55 9.18 8.34 7.60
TCU 9.99 9.87 10.00 9.68 9.46 10.05 9.32 9.70 8.97 8.23
Oklahoma State 5.22 4.82 4.72 5.34 6.30 5.60 5.45 4.85 5.05 4.53
West Virginia 6.29 6.10 5.92 5.55 4.55 4.07 4.96 4.02 3.82 4.58
Rd 10 Rd 11 Rd 12 Rd 13 Rd 14 Rd 15 Rd 16 Rd 17 Rd 18
Pred Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Conf
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Record Next Game
---- -------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ---------
# 21 Kansas State 11.59 12.27 12.96 12.42 12.79 13.08 12.78 13.12 13.63 13 4 OU (Sa)
# 9 Texas Tech 11.00 11.65 12.02 12.29 12.32 12.71 12.78 13.21 13.48 13 4 @ISU (Sa)
# 11 Kansas 11.67 11.61 12.12 12.24 12.20 11.76 12.07 12.31 11.77 11 6 BU (Sa)
# 39 Baylor 10.32 9.75 10.15 9.83 10.61 10.86 11.31 10.97 10.23 10 7 @KU (Sa)
# 15 Iowa State 12.11 11.21 11.21 11.79 11.05 10.48 10.79 10.28 9.52 9 8 TTU (Sa)
# 25 Texas 9.28 9.81 9.06 9.27 9.26 8.89 8.44 8.94 8.69 8 9 TCU (Sa)
# 28 Oklahoma 6.98 6.38 5.95 6.57 6.60 6.97 6.66 6.82 7.37 7 10 @KSU (Sa)
# 40 TCU 8.38 9.21 8.74 8.02 7.40 7.90 7.26 6.84 6.31 6 11 @UT (Sa)
# 75 Oklahoma State 4.33 4.25 3.91 3.78 4.42 4.17 4.09 3.87 4.61 4 13 WVU (Sa)
# 74 West Virginia 4.34 3.86 3.88 3.79 3.35 3.18 3.82 3.64 4.39 4 13 @OSU (Sa)
Predictions
Round 19
-----------
KU by 8.3
UT by 5.5
KSU by 4.0
OSU by 3.1
ISU by 0.6
Real Time's larger than usual home court advantage enabled it to take honors for best prognostications
in Round 18, its third win of the season. Greenfield retains the season lead. Strange round, with
four of the projected winners actually losing.
Predictions Round 18
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
BU over OSU 8.0 9.0 9.5 8.5 12.0 8.5 10.6 15.8 10.6 13.1 8.0 15.0 9.7 12.0 13.0
TTU over UT 7.3 8.0 7.5 7.5 4.0 8.5 7.6 14.2 9.9 8.9 7.0 17.0 8.6 10.9 7.3
ISU over WVU 6.3 8.0 8.5 7.0 13.5 7.5 9.2 12.4 10.5 8.9 9.0 6.0 9.8 7.5 8.8
KU over OU 0.9 2.0 1.1 1.0 4.5 1.0 0.8 7.6 2.1 1.2 2.0 -5.0 0.5 -1.9 1.8
TCU over KSU 0.7 -2.0 0.1 -1.5 -8.5 -1.5 -0.8 -4.6 -0.6 0.6 -3.0 5.0 1.2 3.5 -4.9
Reality Error
------- --2-----------1-----1-----3-----1-----------1-----1-----1-----------3-----------1-----3-
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
-3 11.0 12.0 12.5 11.5 15.0 11.5 13.6 18.8 13.6 16.1 11.0 18.0 12.7 15.0 16.0
19 11.7 11.0 11.5 11.5 15.0 10.5 11.4 4.8 9.1 10.1 12.0 2.0 10.4 8.1 11.7
-15 21.3 23.0 23.5 22.0 28.5 22.5 24.2 27.4 25.5 23.9 24.0 21.0 24.8 22.5 23.8
-13 13.9 15.0 14.1 14.0 17.5 14.0 13.8 20.6 15.1 14.2 15.0 8.0 13.5 11.1 14.8
-12 12.7 10.0 12.1 10.5 3.5 10.5 11.2 7.4 11.4 12.6 9.0 17.0 13.2 15.5 7.1
total 70.6 71.0 73.7 69.5 79.5 69.0 74.2 79.0 74.7 76.9 71.0 66.0 74.6 72.2 73.4
previous 718.4 754.0 715.1 710.5 780.0 714.5 736.9 927.8 774.6 720.4 823.0 837.0 763.4 787.7 809.1
cumulative 789.0 825.0 788.8 780.0 859.5 783.5 811.11006.8 849.3 797.3 894.0 903.0 838.0 859.9 882.5
per game 9.3 9.7 9.3 9.2 10.1 9.2 9.5 11.8 10.0 9.4 10.5 10.6 9.9 10.1 10.4
Neither of the projected road wins for Round 18 panned out, though we did get an
unexpected one when Oklahoma State rolled out of Waco with a win, plus Kansas State
picked up a toss-up road win in Fort Worth. No road wins are projected for Round 19,
though Texas Tech has a toss-up game in Ames. So it's likely we'll either end the
season with exactly one road win in three, which is the long term average, or one
road win ahead of that, which is well within the scatter.
Road wins (30 out of 85) Home losses Differential
------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------- --------------
7 Kansas St. ISU OU OSU BU UT WVU TCU 0 Kansas +5 Kansas St.
5 Texas Tech WVU UT OU OSU TCU 1 Texas Tech ISU +4 Texas Tech
4 Baylor OSU WVU OU ISU 2 Kansas St. UT ISU +3 Kansas
4 Iowa St. OSU TTU OU KSU 2 Texas TTU KSU +1 Baylor
3 Kansas BU TCU OSU 3 Baylor KU KSU OSU +1 Iowa St.
2 Oklahoma OSU TCU 3 Iowa St. KSU TCU BU 0 Texas
2 Oklahoma St. WVU BU 4 TCU KU OU TTU KSU -2 Oklahoma
2 Texas KSU WVU 4 Oklahoma KSU BU ISU TTU -3 TCU
1 TCU ISU 5 W. Virginia TTU OSU BU UT KSU -4 Oklahoma St.
0 W. Virginia 6 Oklahoma St. ISU BU OU KSU TTU KU -5 W. Virginia
Performance (points) Inconsistency (points)
--------------------- ----------------------
Texas Tech +1.92 Kansas 9.48
Iowa State +0.55 West Virginia 10.56
Baylor +0.39 Oklahoma 11.08
Texas +0.33 Texas 11.11
Oklahoma 0.00 Iowa State 11.19
TCU -0.20 Texas Tech 11.23
Kansas State -0.39 TCU 11.41
Kansas -0.41 Oklahoma State 11.44
Oklahoma State -1.12 Kansas State 12.38
West Virginia -2.36 Baylor 12.69
Trend (points per game) Mental toughness
------------------------------ ------------------------------
Kansas State +0.54 +/- 0.25 Kansas State +0.43 +/- 0.23
Baylor +0.36 +/- 0.26 Baylor +0.36 +/- 0.21
Texas Tech +0.31 +/- 0.23 Texas +0.27 +/- 0.23
Texas +0.19 +/- 0.24 Oklahoma State +0.09 +/- 0.25
West Virginia -0.06 +/- 0.23 Texas Tech +0.04 +/- 0.18
Oklahoma State -0.13 +/- 0.24 Iowa State -0.08 +/- 0.21
Iowa State -0.17 +/- 0.24 TCU -0.18 +/- 0.25
Oklahoma -0.22 +/- 0.23 West Virginia -0.28 +/- 0.21
Kansas -0.23 +/- 0.20 Kansas -0.30 +/- 0.23
TCU -0.32 +/- 0.24 Oklahoma -0.58 +/- 0.33
Average offense (pts) Average defense (pts) Total Points Scoring Margin (pts)
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
Iowa State 77.60 Texas Tech 58.83 West Virginia 149.37 Texas Tech +13.33
Kansas 75.20 Kansas State 59.47 Iowa State 146.27 Iowa State +8.93
TCU 74.20 Baylor 66.83 Kansas 145.67 Kansas State +6.17
West Virginia 72.37 Texas 67.53 TCU 145.43 Kansas +4.73
Texas Tech 72.17 Oklahoma 68.37 Oklahoma 139.87 Baylor +4.53
Oklahoma 71.50 Iowa State 68.67 Oklahoma State 138.70 Texas +3.63
Baylor 71.37 Kansas 70.47 Texas 138.70 Oklahoma +3.13
Texas 71.17 TCU 71.23 Baylor 138.20 TCU +2.97
Oklahoma State 67.30 Oklahoma State 71.40 Texas Tech 131.00 Oklahoma State -4.10
Kansas State 65.63 West Virginia 77.00 Kansas State 125.10 West Virginia -4.63
Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Kansas 83.32 ( 1)
Oklahoma State 82.89 ( 2)
Texas 82.21 ( 5)
Oklahoma 81.96 ( 8)
West Virginia 81.15 (14)
Iowa State 80.29 (25)
Kansas State 80.22 (28)
TCU 79.86 (34)
Baylor 79.70 (38)
Texas Tech 79.34 (45)
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, hairyhawk, wardhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, jaythawk1
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