predictions for Oklahoma game

Another must win, and we need to do it on the home court of the team that we
hope can beat Kansas State in Manhattan on Saturday.

Only one naysayer among the usual prognosticators.  Real Time, which must be
using a larger home court advantage than everybody else, has Kansas losing by
5 points.  Colley is the optimist, with Kansas winning by 7.6 points, though
I've questioned the scaling from ratings units to points all season long.

Oklahoma has a larger negative trend as well as a larger negative mental
toughness rating, but taken at face value, Kansas would be favored by only
1.8 points instead of only 0.9 points.

Need to keep this short due to my schedule today.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      OU     KU       Defensive Stats        OU     KU
Points/Game         71.4    75.8     Opp Points/Game       68.1    69.8
Avg Score Margin    +3.3    +6.0     Opp Effective FG %   47.0%   47.7%
Assist/Game         12.7    13.6     Off Rebounds/Gm        7.9     8.9
Total Rebouds/Gm    38.1    37.4     Def Rebounds/Gm       26.1    25.8
Effective FG %      50.2    53.2     Blocks/Game            3.4     3.8
Off Rebound %       24.4    27.8     Steals/Game            5.9     6.9
FTA/FGA            0.322   0.336     Personal Fouls/Gm     15.9    17.0
Turnover %         15.6%   16.4%

Common Opponents
================
There are nine common opponents, eight in conference plus Wofford.  I'll use only
the home-home and road-road permutations for the six conference opponents that
both have played twice.  Along with the head-to-head in Lawrence, we have eighteen
scores to compare:

KU  +25 Wof at home (+21 neutral court)
OU  +11 Wof at home ( +7 neutral court)
KU  +10 OU  on road (+14 neutral court)

KU  +12 OSU at home ( +8 neutral court)     KU   +5 OSU on road ( +9 neutral court)
OU  +10 OSU at home ( +6 neutral court)     OU   +9 OSU on road (+13 neutral court)
KU   -2 OU  on road ( +2 neutral court)     KU   -8 OU  on road ( -4 neutral court

KU  -29 TTU on road (-25 neutral court)     KU  +16 TTU at home (+12 neutral court)
OU   -7 TTU on road ( -3 neutral court)     OU  -12 TTU at home (-16 neutral court)
KU  -26 OU  on road (-22 neutral court)     KU  +24 OU  on road (+28 neutral court)

KU   +9 TCU at home ( +5 neutral court)     KU   +5 TCU on road ( +9 neutral court)
OU   +2 TCU at home ( -2 neutral court)     OU   +9 TCU on road (+13 neutral court)
KU   +3 OU  on road ( +7 neutral court)     KU   -8 OU  on road ( -4 neutral court)

KU  +15 KSU at home (+11 neutral court)     KU   -7 KSU on road ( -3 neutral court)
OU  -13 KSU at home (-17 neutral court)     OU  -13 KSU at home (-17 neutral court)
KU  +24 OU  on road (+28 neutral court)     KU  +10 OU  on road (+14 neutral court)

KU  -10 UT  on road ( -6 neutral court)     KU   +2 UT  at home ( -2 neutral court)
OU   -3 UT  on road ( +1 neutral court)     OU   +2 UT  at home ( -2 neutral court)
KU  -11 OU  on road ( -7 neutral court)     KU   -4 OU  on road (  0 neutral court)

KU   +5 BU  on road ( +9 neutral court)     KU   +5 BU  on road ( +9 neutral court)
OU  -30 BU  at home (-34 neutral court)     OU   -6 BU  on road ( -2 neutral court)
KU  +39 OU  on road (-43 neutral court)     KU   +7 OU  on road (+11 neutral court)

KU   -1 WVU on road ( +3 neutral court)     KU  +25 WVU at home (+21 neutral court)
OU   -8 WVU on road ( -4 neutral court)     OU  +12 WVU at home ( +8 neutral court)
KU   +3 OU  on road ( +7 neutral court)     KU   +9 OU  on road (+13 neutral court)

KU   +4 ISU at home (  0 neutral court)     KU  -17 ISU on road (-13 neutral court)
OU   -1 ISU at home ( -5 neutral court)     OU  -17 ISU on road (-13 neutral court)
KU   +1 OU  on road ( +5 neutral court)     KU   -4 OU  on road (  0 neutral court)

KU   +7 OU  at home ( +3 neutral court)
KU   -1 OU  on road ( +3 neutral court)

Ten of the comparisons favor Kansas, while eight favor Oklahoma.  The average is
3.67 points in favor of Kansas, but with a scatter of 14.8 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Christian James (guard)
most points        Christian James (guard)
most rebounds      Kristian Doolittle (forward)
most assists       Jamal Bieniemy (guard)
most steals        Jamal Bieniemy (guard)
most blocks        Jamuni McNeace (center)
most turnovers     Christian James (guard)
most fouls         Jamuni McNeace (center)

Forward Kur Kuath is out for the season with a back injury.

                                                          21-7            18-11
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas          Oklahoma
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall         +1.40   72   71                # 11   #  1     # 34   # 10 
Sagarin Predictor       +0.90   72   71       53.5     # 11   #  1     # 31   # 10 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +2.58   73   70.5              #  9   #  1     # 35   # 10 
Sagarin Recent Games    +3.17   73   70                # 17   #  1     # 51   # 10
Sagarin Eigenvector     +5.55   75   69       70       
Massey                  +2.00   73   71       54       # 15   #  3     # 35   # 12
Pomeroy                 +1.10   71   70                # 14   #  1     # 40   # 10
Greenfield              +1.00   72   71                # 14   #  5     # 33   # 16
Dunkel                  +4.50   75   71                # 11            # 38       
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +1.00   71.5 70.5                                         
Dolphin Predictive      +0.84   72   72       52.9     # 16   #  7     # 39   # 20
Real Time               -5.00   72   77       39.5     #  7   #  1     # 49   # 13 
Seven Overtimes         +2.00   72   70       67       #  6   #  3     # 43   #  2
DPPI                    +4.10   72   68       68.9     # 18   #  1     # 49   #  3 
ESPN BPI                +1.20                 54.3     # 16   #  2     # 40   # 13
Whitlock                +2.05                          # 11   #  1     # 30   #  7
Colley Matrix           +7.60                          #  4   #  1     # 32   #  6
NCAA NET                                               # 16            # 41
common opponents        +3.67                                                                     
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                 +2.2    72.5 70.9
scatter                  2.6     1.2  2.0

Here is Kansas' season; the season record projection remains at 23-8; there
are no more projected losses, though the game in Norman is a one-possession
game:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  4 Michigan State              92  87    -4.53    +9.53
HOME   # 92 Vermont                     84  68   +14.14    +1.86
HOME   #170 Louisiana                   89  76   +20.76    -7.76
NEUT   # 19 Marquette                   77  68    +1.92    +7.08
NEUT   #  7 Tennessee                   87  81    -1.63    +7.63
HOME   #102 Stanford                    90  84   +15.00    -9.00
HOME   # 41 Wofford                     72  47    +8.96   +16.04
HOME   # 60 New Mexico State            63  60   +11.79    -8.79
HOME   # 16 Villanova                   74  71    +4.44    -1.44
HOME   #211 South Dakota                89  53   +23.11   +12.89
AWAY   # 51 Arizona State               76  80    +4.06    -8.06
HOME   #159 Eastern Michigan            87  63   +20.17    +3.83
HOME   # 31 Oklahoma                    70  63    +7.14    -0.14
AWAY   # 15 Iowa State                  60  77    -2.14   -14.86
HOME   # 40 TCU                         77  68    +8.78    +0.22
AWAY   # 38 Baylor                      73  68    +2.25    +2.75
HOME   # 27 Texas                       80  78    +6.46    -4.46
AWAY   # 85 West Virginia               64  65    +7.36    -8.36
HOME   # 15 Iowa State                  80  76    +4.10    -0.10
AWAY   #  6 Kentucky                    63  71    -5.42    -2.58
AWAY   # 27 Texas                       63  73    +0.22   -10.22
HOME   #  9 Texas Tech                  79  63    +1.68   +14.32
AWAY   # 21 Kansas State                67  74    -0.52    -6.48
HOME   # 84 Oklahoma State              84  72   +13.53    -1.53
AWAY   # 40 TCU                         82  77    +2.54    +2.46
HOME   # 85 West Virginia               78  53   +13.60   +11.40
AWAY   #  9 Texas Tech                  62  91    -4.56   -24.44
HOME   # 21 Kansas State                64  49    +5.72    +9.28
AWAY   # 84 Oklahoma State              72  67    +7.29    -2.29
AWAY   # 31 Oklahoma                              +0.90             0.535
HOME   # 38 Baylor                                +8.49             0.777

Here is Oklahoma's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
AWAY   #193 UTRGV                       91  76   +12.25    +2.75
AWAY   #144 UTSA                        87  67    +8.55   +11.45
HOME   # 41 Wofford                     75  64    +4.94    +6.06
NEUT   # 29 Florida                     65  60    -0.27    +5.27
NEUT   # 14 Wisconsin                   58  78    -3.07   -16.93
NEUT   # 74 Dayton                      65  54    +5.83    +5.17
HOME   #154 North Texas                 73  57   +15.64    +0.36
NEUT   # 70 Notre Dame                  85  80    +5.67    -0.67
HOME   #100 Wichita State               80  48   +10.71   +21.29
HOME   # 78 Southern California         81  70    +9.18    +1.82
HOME   # 45 Creighton                   83  70    +5.50    +7.50
AWAY   # 65 Northwestern                76  69    +2.17    +4.83
AWAY   # 11 Kansas                      63  70    -7.14    +0.14
HOME   # 84 Oklahoma State              74  64    +9.51    +0.49
AWAY   #  9 Texas Tech                  59  66    -8.58    +1.58
HOME   # 40 TCU                         76  74    +4.76    -2.76
HOME   # 21 Kansas State                61  74    +1.70   -14.70
AWAY   # 27 Texas                       72  75    -3.80    +0.80
AWAY   # 84 Oklahoma State              70  61    +3.27    +5.73
HOME   # 97 Vanderbilt                  86  55   +10.62   +20.38
HOME   # 38 Baylor                      47  77    +4.47   -34.47
AWAY   # 85 West Virginia               71  79    +3.34   -11.34
HOME   # 15 Iowa State                  74  75    +0.08    -1.08
HOME   #  9 Texas Tech                  54  66    -2.34    -9.66
AWAY   # 38 Baylor                      53  59    -1.77    -4.23
AWAY   # 40 TCU                         71  62    -1.48   +10.48
HOME   # 27 Texas                       69  67    +2.44    -0.44
AWAY   # 15 Iowa State                  61  78    -6.16   -10.84
HOME   # 85 West Virginia               92  80    +9.58    +2.42
HOME   # 11 Kansas                                -0.90             0.465
AWAY   # 21 Kansas State                          -4.54             0.348