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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Big 12 projection, Round 17
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5 years 2 months ago #21744
by asteroid
Round 17 went exactly as projected, in terms of winners and losers, though the margins were
surprising in some cases. No changes in the projected standings.
Init. Rnd 1 Rnd 2 Rnd 3 Rnd 4 Rnd 5 Rnd 6 Rnd 7 Rnd 8 Rnd 9
Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj.
Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins
-------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Texas Tech 11.96 12.28 12.35 12.71 13.27 12.28 11.39 10.65 11.08 10.71
Kansas State 7.81 6.43 6.43 6.63 7.59 8.85 9.59 10.43 10.21 10.87
Kansas 12.80 13.08 12.07 12.50 12.87 13.01 12.20 12.60 11.89 12.31
Baylor 6.32 6.33 6.24 7.06 6.72 7.51 8.33 9.09 10.29 10.83
Iowa State 10.49 10.85 11.75 11.07 10.07 10.97 11.17 10.81 11.27 11.56
Texas 8.51 9.83 10.18 9.36 8.73 8.61 9.04 8.67 9.08 8.78
TCU 9.99 9.87 10.00 9.68 9.46 10.05 9.32 9.70 8.97 8.23
Oklahoma 10.61 10.41 10.34 10.10 10.44 9.05 8.55 9.18 8.34 7.60
Oklahoma State 5.22 4.82 4.72 5.34 6.30 5.60 5.45 4.85 5.05 4.53
West Virginia 6.29 6.10 5.92 5.55 4.55 4.07 4.96 4.02 3.82 4.58
Rd 10 Rd 11 Rd 12 Rd 13 Rd 14 Rd 15 Rd 16 Rd 17
Pred Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Conf
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Record Next Game
---- -------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ---------
# 9 Texas Tech 11.00 11.65 12.02 12.29 12.32 12.71 12.78 13.21 12 4 UT (Mo)
# 24 Kansas State 11.59 12.27 12.96 12.42 12.79 13.08 12.78 13.12 12 4 @TCU (Mo)
# 11 Kansas 11.67 11.61 12.12 12.24 12.20 11.76 12.07 12.31 11 5 @OU (Tu)
# 40 Baylor 10.32 9.75 10.15 9.83 10.61 10.86 11.31 10.97 10 6 OSU (We)
# 14 Iowa State 12.11 11.21 11.21 11.79 11.05 10.48 10.79 10.28 9 7 @WVU (We)
# 27 Texas 9.28 9.81 9.06 9.27 9.26 8.89 8.44 8.94 8 8 @TTU (Mo)
# 38 TCU 8.38 9.21 8.74 8.02 7.40 7.90 7.26 6.84 6 10 KSU (Mo)
# 32 Oklahoma 6.98 6.38 5.95 6.57 6.60 6.97 6.66 6.82 6 10 KU (Tu)
# 84 Oklahoma State 4.33 4.25 3.91 3.78 4.42 4.17 4.09 3.87 3 13 @BU (We)
# 86 West Virginia 4.34 3.86 3.88 3.79 3.35 3.18 3.82 3.64 3 13 ISU (We)
Predictions
Round 18
-----------
BU by 8.2
TTU by 7.4
ISU by 6.6 RW
KU by 0.9 RW
TCU by 0.6
My trend analysis took honors for best prognostications in Round 17, its third win of the season.
Greenfield retains the season lead.
Predictions Round 17
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
OU over WVU 12.0 11.0 10.8 10.0 6.5 11.0 11.2 16.2 12.9 14.0 9.0 20.0 12.0 14.3 12.2
KU over OSU 7.6 7.0 7.2 7.0 11.5 7.0 7.6 21.0 10.6 10.6 12.0 4.0 8.1 5.7 9.4
KSU over BU 5.6 5.0 4.4 6.0 1.0 6.0 4.2 9.4 5.3 5.2 1.0 11.0 4.5 6.8 4.8
TTU over TCU 2.8 4.0 4.4 3.5 -1.0 3.5 4.8 4.9 5.5 4.8 5.0 -2.0 4.3 2.0 6.9
UT over ISU 0.4 -1.0 0.4 -2.0 2.0 -2.0 0.3 -3.3 -1.1 1.3 -2.0 1.0 -0.6 1.7 0.3
Reality Error
------- --2-----------1-----1-----3-----1-----------1-----1-----1-----------2-----------1-----3-
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
12 0.0 1.0 1.2 2.0 5.5 1.0 0.8 4.2 0.9 2.0 3.0 8.0 0.0 2.3 0.2
5 2.6 2.0 2.2 2.0 6.5 2.0 2.6 16.0 5.6 5.6 7.0 1.0 3.1 0.7 4.4
6 0.4 1.0 1.6 0.0 5.0 0.0 1.8 3.4 0.7 0.8 5.0 5.0 1.5 0.8 1.2
15 12.2 11.0 10.6 11.5 16.0 11.5 10.2 10.1 9.5 10.2 10.0 17.0 10.7 13.0 8.1
17 16.6 18.0 16.6 19.0 15.0 19.0 16.7 20.3 18.1 15.7 19.0 16.0 17.6 15.3 16.7
total 31.8 33.0 32.2 34.5 48.0 33.5 32.1 54.0 34.8 34.3 44.0 47.0 32.9 32.1 30.6
previous 686.6 721.0 682.9 676.0 732.0 681.0 704.8 873.8 739.8 686.1 779.0 790.0 730.5 755.6 778.5
cumulative 718.4 754.0 715.1 710.5 780.0 714.5 736.9 927.8 774.6 720.4 823.0 837.0 763.4 787.7 809.1
per game 9.0 9.4 8.9 8.9 9.8 8.9 9.2 11.6 9.7 9.0 10.3 10.5 9.5 9.8 10.1
Two road wins were projected for Round 17, and they happened as projected. Two more are projected
for Round 18, with Iowa State at Morgantown, and Kansas at Norman.
Road wins (28 out of 80) Home losses Differential
--------------------------------------- --------------------------------------- ----------------
6 Kansas St. ISU OU OSU BU UT WVU 0 Kansas +4 Kansas St.
5 Texas Tech WVU UT OU OSU TCU 1 Texas Tech ISU +4 Texas Tech
4 Baylor OSU WVU OU ISU 2 Baylor KU KSU +3 Kansas
4 Iowa State OSU TTU OU KSU 2 Kansas St. UT ISU +2 Baylor
3 Kansas BU TCU OSU 2 Texas TTU KSU +1 Iowa State
2 Oklahoma OSU TCU 3 Iowa State KSU TCU BU 0 Texas
2 Texas KSU WVU 3 TCU KU OU TTU -2 Oklahoma
1 Oklahoma St. WVU 4 Oklahoma KSU BU ISU TTU -2 TCU
1 TCU ISU 5 West Virginia TTU OSU BU UT KSU -5 Oklahoma St.
0 West Virginia 6 Oklahoma St. ISU BU OU KSU TTU KU -5 West Virginia
Performance (points) Inconsistency (points)
--------------------- ----------------------
Texas Tech +1.66 Kansas 9.30
Iowa State +0.93 West Virginia 9.79
Baylor +0.56 Iowa State 10.52
Texas +0.50 Oklahoma 11.00
Oklahoma -0.03 Texas 11.09
TCU -0.06 Texas Tech 11.29
Kansas -0.39 TCU 11.40
Kansas State -0.63 Oklahoma State 11.45
Oklahoma State -0.96 Kansas State 12.22
West Virginia -2.28 Baylor 12.72
Trend (points per game) Mental toughness
------------------------------ ------------------------------
Kansas State +0.51 +/- 0.26 Kansas State +0.39 +/- 0.23
Baylor +0.46 +/- 0.27 Texas +0.37 +/- 0.23
Texas +0.29 +/- 0.24 Baylor +0.35 +/- 0.22
Texas Tech +0.26 +/- 0.25 Oklahoma State +0.08 +/- 0.25
Iowa State -0.04 +/- 0.24 Texas Tech +0.03 +/- 0.18
Kansas -0.18 +/- 0.21 Iowa State -0.07 +/- 0.19
Oklahoma State -0.23 +/- 0.26 TCU -0.15 +/- 0.25
West Virginia -0.24 +/- 0.22 Kansas -0.25 +/- 0.23
TCU -0.29 +/- 0.25 West Virginia -0.31 +/- 0.19
Oklahoma -0.34 +/- 0.24 Oklahoma -0.60 +/- 0.33
Average offense (pts) Average defense (pts) Total Points Scoring Margin (pts)
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
Iowa State 77.62 Texas Tech 59.03 West Virginia 148.83 Texas Tech +13.28
Kansas 75.38 Kansas State 59.79 TCU 146.45 Iowa State +9.62
TCU 75.03 Baylor 66.76 Iowa State 145.62 Kansas State +5.83
Texas Tech 72.31 Texas 67.52 Kansas 145.55 Kansas +5.21
West Virginia 71.83 Iowa State 68.00 Oklahoma 139.55 Baylor +4.93
Texas 71.79 Oklahoma 68.31 Texas 139.31 Texas +4.28
Baylor 71.69 Kansas 70.17 Oklahoma State 138.97 TCU +3.62
Oklahoma 71.24 TCU 71.41 Baylor 138.45 Oklahoma +2.93
Oklahoma State 67.24 Oklahoma State 71.72 Texas Tech 131.34 Oklahoma State -4.48
Kansas State 65.62 West Virginia 77.00 Kansas State 125.41 West Virginia -5.17
Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Kansas 83.06 ( 1)
Oklahoma State 82.66 ( 2)
Oklahoma 81.72 ( 9)
Texas 81.70 (10)
West Virginia 81.07 (15)
Iowa State 80.02 (26)
Kansas State 79.98 (27)
Baylor 79.74 (33)
TCU 79.62 (35)
Texas Tech 78.96 (47)
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, hairyhawk, gorillahawk, Socalhawk, DocBlues, KMT, jaythawk1
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5 years 2 months ago #21745
by Socalhawk
Congratulations on winning round 17 and #3 on the year.
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5 years 2 months ago #21754
by hairyhawk
that is really impressive. The folks in Vegas do it for a living so when you are predicting more accurate than they are it is extremely impressive.
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5 years 2 months ago #21768
by asteroid
Vegas is still doing a better job over the entire season.
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