predictions for Oklahoma State game

You know the drill.  I hate these early tips.

Another must-win game.  Hard to call.  Oklahoma State just gave Texas Tech all it
could handle in Lubbock, where Kansas failed miserably one game earlier.  Maybe
the Cowboys are that good.  Or maybe it was just a trap game for the Red Raiders.
Kansas is favored, but has been favored many times in the past while falling in
Stillwater anyway.  At least all the prognosticators are in agreement that Kansas
is the favorite, by an average of 9.1 points.

Both teams have negative trends, with Oklahoma State's being slightly more
significant in a statistical sense.  Kansas has a negative mental toughness
rating, but that actually helps against a weaker opponent.  Oklahoma State's
mental toughness rating is slightly positive but nowhere close to being
statistically significant.  Taken at face value, the margin for Kansas increases
slightly to 9.4 points.

Kansas is undefeated at home, undefeated in neutral court games (which would
bode well for the NCAA tournament), but only 2-7 in true road games.  Although
Oklahoma State isn't exactly the most formidable of opponents, neither was
West Virginia, and that generated one of those 7 road losses.  Kansas can't
afford another road loss.

Enough analysis.  Time to get a little sleep before tip-off.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     OSU     KU       Defensive Stats       OSU     KU
Points/Game         67.5    75.9     Opp Points/Game       71.5    69.9
Avg Score Margin    -4.0    +6.1     Opp Effective FG %   50.4%   47.6%
Assist/Game         13.1    13.6     Off Rebounds/Gm        7.8     8.9
Total Rebouds/Gm    34.2    37.3     Def Rebounds/Gm       23.1    25.6
Effective FG %      50.0    53.4     Blocks/Game            3.9     3.8
Off Rebound %       24.9    27.8     Steals/Game            5.7     6.9
FTA/FGA            0.321   0.333     Personal Fouls/Gm     16.4    17.1
Turnover %         16.4%   16.4%

Common Opponents
================
There are nine common opponents, eight in conference plus Villanova, one of which
Kansas has already played twice (West Virginia), one of which Oklahoma State has
already played twice (Oklahoma),  and five of which both have played twice
(Iowa State, Texas, Kansas State, TCU, Texas Tech), in which case I will use only
the home-home and road-road permutations, plus the head-to-head in Lawrence, giving
us seventeen scores to compare:

KU   +3 Vil at home ( -1 neutral court)
OSU -19 Vil neutral (-19 neutral court)
KU  +14 OSU on road (+18 neutral court)

KU   +4 ISU at home (  0 neutral court)     KU  -17 ISU on road (-13 neutral court)
OSU  -6 ISU at home (-10 neutral court)     OSU -13 ISU on road ( -9 neutral court)
KU   +6 OSU on road (+10 neutral court)     KU   -8 OSU on road ( -4 neutral court)

KU   +7 OU  at home ( +3 neutral court)     KU   +7 OU  at home ( +3 neutral court)
OSU -10 OU  on road ( -6 neutral court)     OSU  -9 OU  at home (-13 neutral court)
KU   +5 OSU on road ( +9 neutral court)     KU  +12 OSU on road (+16 neutral court)

KU   +2 UT  at home ( -2 neutral court)     KU  -10 UT  on road ( -6 neutral court)
OSU  +3 UT  at home ( -1 neutral court)     OSU -12 UT  on road ( -8 neutral court)
KU   -5 OSU on road ( -1 neutral court)     KU   -2 OSU on road ( -2 neutral court)

KU   -1 WVU on road ( +3 neutral court)     KU  +25 WVU at home (+21 neutral court)
OSU  +8 WVU on road (+12 neutral court)     OSU  +8 WVU on road (+12 neutral court)
KU  -13 OSU on road ( -9 neutral court)     KU   +5 OSU on road ( +9 neutral court)

KU   +5 BU  on road ( +9 neutral court)
OSU  -4 BU  at home ( -8 neutral court)
KU  +13 OSU on road (+17 neutral court)

KU  +15 KSU at home (+11 neutral court)     KU   -7 KSU on road ( -3 neutral court)
OSU -18 KSU at home (-22 neutral court)     OSU -39 KSU on road (-35 neutral court)
KU  +29 OSU on road (+33 neutral court)     KU  +28 OSU on road (+32 neutral court)

KU   +5 TCU on road ( +9 neutral court)     KU   +9 TCU at home ( +5 neutral court)
OSU  -2 TCU on road ( +2 neutral court)     OSU  +7 TCU at home ( +3 neutral court)
KU   +3 OSU on road ( +7 neutral court)     KU   -2 OSU on road ( +2 neutral court)

KU  +16 TTU at home (+12 neutral court)     KU  -29 TTU on road (-25 neutral court)
OSU -28 TTU at home (-32 neutral court)     OSU  -4 TTU on road (  0 neutral court)
KU  +40 OSU on road (+44 neutral court)     KU  -29 OSU on road (-25 neutral court)

KU  +12 OSU at home ( +8 neutral court)
KU   +4 OSU on road ( +8 neutral court)

Eleven of the comparisons favor Kansas, while six favor Oklahoma State.  The
Kansas State comparisons are particularly favorable for Kansas.  The Texas Tech
comparisons represent an amazing contrast.  The average is 5.9 points in favor of
Kansas.  The scatter is a whopping 16.5 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Cameron McGriff (forward)
most points        Cameron McGriff (forward)
most rebounds      Cameron McGriff (forward)
most assists       Isaac Likekele (guard)
most steals        Isaac Likekele (guard)
most blocks        Yor Anei (forward)
most turnovers     Michael Weathers (guard)
most fouls         Yor Anei (forward)

Little-used forward Trey Reeves is out for the season with a broken right foot.

                                                          21-7            10-18
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Oklahoma State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall         +7.72   75   67                # 11   #  1     # 83   #  2 
Sagarin Predictor       +7.56   75   67       76.2     # 11   #  1     # 81   #  2 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +8.13   75   67                #  9   #  1     # 77   #  2 
Sagarin Recent Games    +8.69   75   67                # 21   #  1     #113   #  2
Sagarin Eigenvector    +14.07   78   64       88       
Massey                  +7.00   75   68       75       # 14   #  2     # 95   # 16
Pomeroy                 +7.23   73   66                # 15   #  1     #108   #  6
Greenfield              +7.00   73   66                # 14   #  4     # 98   # 28
Dunkel                 +11.50   72   60                # 12            #101       
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +7.00   73   66                                           
Dolphin Predictive      +7.57   75   68       74.7     # 16   #  7     #105   # 31
Real Time               +4.00   77   73       59.5     #  7   #  1     #160   #  3 
Seven Overtimes        +12.00   77   65                #  3   #  4     #134   # 15
DPPI                    +7.00   74   67       73       # 20   #  1     #109   #  6 
ESPN BPI               +10.60                 83.9     # 16   #  1     #128   #  6
Whitlock               +10.60                          # 11   #  1     # 99   #  6
Colley Matrix          +21.00                          #  5   #  1     #121   #  2
NCAA NET                                               # 17            # 90
common opponents        +5.88                                                                     
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                 +9.1    74.8 66.5
scatter                  3.8     1.7  2.8

Here is Kansas' season; the season record projection remains at 23-8; there
are no more projected losses, though the game in Norman is a one-possession
game:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  4 Michigan State              92  87    -4.55    +9.55
HOME   # 91 Vermont                     84  68   +14.30    +1.70
HOME   #162 Louisiana                   89  76   +20.65    -7.65
NEUT   # 17 Marquette                   77  68    +1.97    +7.03
NEUT   #  7 Tennessee                   87  81    -1.28    +7.28
HOME   #100 Stanford                    90  84   +15.21    -9.21
HOME   # 43 Wofford                     72  47    +9.36   +15.64
HOME   # 61 New Mexico State            63  60   +12.17    -9.17
HOME   # 19 Villanova                   74  71    +5.18    -2.18
HOME   #207 South Dakota                89  53   +23.55   +12.45
AWAY   # 50 Arizona State               76  80    +4.50    -8.50
HOME   #163 Eastern Michigan            87  63   +20.69    +3.31
HOME   # 31 Oklahoma                    70  63    +7.24    -0.24
AWAY   # 14 Iowa State                  60  77    -2.36   -14.64
HOME   # 36 TCU                         77  68    +8.33    +0.67
AWAY   # 39 Baylor                      73  68    +2.29    +2.71
HOME   # 28 Texas                       80  78    +6.66    -4.66
AWAY   # 80 West Virginia               64  65    +7.46    -8.46
HOME   # 14 Iowa State                  80  76    +3.92    +0.08
AWAY   #  6 Kentucky                    63  71    -5.50    -2.50
AWAY   # 28 Texas                       63  73    +0.38   -10.38
HOME   #  9 Texas Tech                  79  63    +2.43   +13.57
AWAY   # 21 Kansas State                67  74    -0.20    -6.80
HOME   # 81 Oklahoma State              84  72   +13.84    -1.84
AWAY   # 36 TCU                         82  77    +2.05    +2.95
HOME   # 80 West Virginia               78  53   +13.74   +11.26
AWAY   #  9 Texas Tech                  62  91    -3.85   -25.15
HOME   # 21 Kansas State                64  49    +6.08    +8.92
AWAY   # 81 Oklahoma State                        +7.56             0.762
AWAY   # 31 Oklahoma                              +0.96             0.537
HOME   # 39 Baylor                                +8.57             0.775

Here is Oklahoma State's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
AWAY   #298 Charlotte                   64  66   +11.98   -13.98
HOME   #145 UTSA                        82  60    +8.45   +13.55
HOME   #127 College of Charleston       70  58    +6.76    +5.24
NEUT   # 64 Memphis                     84  64    -1.25   +21.25
NEUT   # 19 Villanova                   58  77    -8.66   -10.34
NEUT   # 22 LSU                         90  77    -7.70   +20.70
AWAY   # 46 Minnesota                   76  83    -6.82    -0.18
AWAY   #124 Tulsa                       71  74    +0.27    -3.27
HOME   # 18 Houston                     53  63    -5.53    -4.47
NEUT   # 33 Nebraska                    56  79    -6.19   -16.81
HOME   #312 Central Arkansas            82  73   +19.29   -10.29
HOME   #280 Texas A&M-CorpusChristi     69  59   +16.96    -6.96
HOME   # 14 Iowa State                  63  69    -6.78    +0.78
AWAY   # 31 Oklahoma                    64  74    -9.74    -0.26
HOME   # 28 Texas                       61  58    -4.04    +7.04
AWAY   # 80 West Virginia               85  77    -3.24   +11.24
HOME   # 39 Baylor                      69  73    -2.13    -1.87
AWAY   # 14 Iowa State                  59  72   -13.06    +0.06
HOME   # 31 Oklahoma                    61  70    -3.46    -5.54
HOME   # 85 South Carolina              74  70    +3.33    +0.67
HOME   # 21 Kansas State                57  75    -4.62   -13.38
AWAY   # 36 TCU                         68  70    -8.65    +6.65
AWAY   # 11 Kansas                      72  84   -13.84    +1.84
HOME   #  9 Texas Tech                  50  78    -8.27   -19.73
AWAY   # 28 Texas                       57  69   -10.32    -1.68
HOME   # 36 TCU                         68  61    -2.37    +9.37
AWAY   # 21 Kansas State                46  85   -10.90   -28.10
AWAY   #  9 Texas Tech                  80  84   -14.55   +10.55
HOME   # 11 Kansas                                -7.56             0.238
AWAY   # 39 Baylor                                -8.41             0.248
HOME   # 80 West Virginia                         +3.04             0.610