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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Big 12 projection, Round 16
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5 years 2 months ago #21651
by asteroid
Kansas State lost in Lawrence while Texas Tech escaped with an overtime home victory over
Oklahoma State, which was barely enough to edge the Wildcats by 0.002 projected wins for
the top spot in the projected standings. No other changes.
Init. Rnd 1 Rnd 2 Rnd 3 Rnd 4 Rnd 5 Rnd 6 Rnd 7 Rnd 8 Rnd 9
Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj.
Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins
-------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Texas Tech 11.96 12.28 12.35 12.71 13.27 12.28 11.39 10.65 11.08 10.71
Kansas State 7.81 6.43 6.43 6.63 7.59 8.85 9.59 10.43 10.21 10.87
Kansas 12.80 13.08 12.07 12.50 12.87 13.01 12.20 12.60 11.89 12.31
Baylor 6.32 6.33 6.24 7.06 6.72 7.51 8.33 9.09 10.29 10.83
Iowa State 10.49 10.85 11.75 11.07 10.07 10.97 11.17 10.81 11.27 11.56
Texas 8.51 9.83 10.18 9.36 8.73 8.61 9.04 8.67 9.08 8.78
TCU 9.99 9.87 10.00 9.68 9.46 10.05 9.32 9.70 8.97 8.23
Oklahoma 10.61 10.41 10.34 10.10 10.44 9.05 8.55 9.18 8.34 7.60
Oklahoma State 5.22 4.82 4.72 5.34 6.30 5.60 5.45 4.85 5.05 4.53
West Virginia 6.29 6.10 5.92 5.55 4.55 4.07 4.96 4.02 3.82 4.58
Rd 10 Rd 11 Rd 12 Rd 13 Rd 14 Rd 15 Rd 16
Pred Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Conf
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Record Next Game Prediction
---- -------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ --------- -----------
# 8 Texas Tech 11.00 11.65 12.02 12.29 12.32 12.71 12.78 11 4 @TCU (Sa) TTU by 2.8
# 23 Kansas State 11.59 12.27 12.96 12.42 12.79 13.08 12.78 11 4 BU (Sa) KSU by 5.6
# 11 Kansas 11.67 11.61 12.12 12.24 12.20 11.76 12.07 10 5 @OSU (Sa) KU by 7.6
# 39 Baylor 10.32 9.75 10.15 9.83 10.61 10.86 11.31 10 5 @KSU (Sa)
# 14 Iowa State 12.11 11.21 11.21 11.79 11.05 10.48 10.79 9 6 @UT (Sa)
# 28 Texas 9.28 9.81 9.06 9.27 9.26 8.89 8.44 7 8 ISU (Sa) UT by 0.4
# 37 TCU 8.38 9.21 8.74 8.02 7.40 7.90 7.26 6 9 TTU (Sa)
# 31 Oklahoma 6.98 6.38 5.95 6.57 6.60 6.97 6.66 5 10 WVU (Sa) OU by 9.8
# 81 Oklahoma State 4.33 4.25 3.91 3.78 4.42 4.17 4.09 3 12 KU (Sa)
# 80 West Virginia 4.34 3.86 3.88 3.79 3.35 3.18 3.82 3 12 @OU (Sa)
Sagarin took honors for best prognostications in Round 16, his second win of the season.
Greenfield retains the season lead.
Predictions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
TTU over OSU 15.5 17.0 16.9 16.0 13.5 17.0 17.8 23.4 19.6 20.9 14.0 24.0 18.0 20.3 23.1
KU over KSU 5.9 5.0 4.3 3.5 -4.0 3.5 3.3 8.6 7.5 5.7 2.0 9.0 5.6 7.9 -1.0
ISU over OU 5.9 7.0 7.5 10.0 21.0 9.0 7.3 6.9 7.6 10.0 2.0 12.0 7.1 9.4 10.5
TCU over WVU 3.0 5.0 4.7 3.5 8.0 3.5 5.3 11.8 6.7 2.4 6.0 1.0 5.7 3.4 5.0
BU over UT 1.3 3.0 2.0 4.5 6.0 3.0 2.4 5.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 10.0 1.5 3.8 3.4
Reality Error
------- --2-----------1-----1-----3-----1-----------1-----1-----1-----------2-----------1-----2-
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
4 11.5 13.0 12.9 12.0 9.5 13.0 13.8 19.4 15.6 16.9 10.0 20.0 14.0 16.3 19.1
15 9.1 10.0 10.7 11.5 19.0 11.5 11.7 6.4 7.5 9.3 13.0 6.0 9.4 7.1 16.0
17 11.1 10.0 9.5 7.0 4.0 8.0 9.7 10.1 9.4 7.0 15.0 5.0 9.9 7.6 6.5
-8 11.0 13.0 12.7 11.5 16.0 11.5 13.3 19.8 14.7 10.4 14.0 9.0 13.7 11.4 13.0
1 0.3 2.0 1.0 3.5 5.0 2.0 1.4 4.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 9.0 0.5 2.8 2.4
total 43.0 48.0 46.8 45.5 53.5 46.0 49.9 59.9 48.3 44.6 53.0 49.0 47.5 45.2 57.0
previous 643.6 673.0 636.1 630.5 678.5 635.0 654.9 813.9 691.5 641.5 726.0 741.0 683.0 710.4 721.5
cumulative 686.6 721.0 682.9 676.0 732.0 681.0 704.8 873.8 739.8 686.1 779.0 790.0 730.5 755.6 778.5
per game 9.2 9.6 9.1 9.0 9.8 9.1 9.4 11.7 9.9 9.1 10.4 10.5 9.7 10.1 10.4
Only one road win was projected for Round 16, and it didn't happen, which isn't a big surprise
considering how it was projected to be a one-possession game, so we're now only one road win
ahead of the long-term average of one-in-three. Two road wins are projected for Round 17, with
Kansas traveling to Stillwater, and Texas Tech traveling to Fort Worth.
Road wins (26 out of 75) Home losses Differential (RW-HL)
---------------------------------------- ------------------------------------ --------------------
6 Kansas State ISU OU OSU BU UT WVU 0 Kansas +4 Kansas State
4 Baylor OSU WVU OU ISU 1 Texas Tech ISU +3 Texas Tech
4 Iowa State OSU TTU OU KSU 2 Baylor KU KSU +2 Baylor
4 Texas Tech WVU UT OU OSU 2 Kansas State UT ISU +2 Kansas
2 Kansas BU TCU 2 TCU KU OU +1 Iowa State
2 Oklahoma OSU TCU 2 Texas TTU KSU 0 Texas
2 Texas KSU WVU 3 Iowa State KSU TCU BU -1 TCU
1 Oklahoma State WVU 4 Oklahoma KSU BU ISU TTU -2 Oklahoma
1 TCU ISU 5 Oklahoma State ISU BU OU KSU TTU -4 Oklahoma State
0 West Virginia 5 West Virginia TTU OSU BU UT KSU -5 West Virginia
Performance (points) Inconsistency (points)
--------------------- ----------------------
Texas Tech +1.62 Kansas 9.44
Iowa State +1.27 West Virginia 10.02
Baylor +0.39 Iowa State 10.14
Texas +0.22 Texas 10.95
TCU +0.13 Oklahoma 11.16
Oklahoma -0.21 Texas Tech 11.35
Kansas -0.54 TCU 11.48
Kansas State -0.66 Oklahoma State 11.60
Oklahoma State -0.93 Kansas State 12.44
West Virginia -2.47 Baylor 13.00
Trend (points per game) Mental toughness
------------------------------ ------------------------------
Kansas State +0.56 +/- 0.28 Kansas State +0.39 +/- 0.23
Baylor +0.53 +/- 0.29 Baylor +0.37 +/- 0.22
Texas Tech +0.22 +/- 0.27 Texas +0.35 +/- 0.23
Texas +0.20 +/- 0.26 Oklahoma State +0.06 +/- 0.26
Iowa State +0.09 +/- 0.24 Texas Tech +0.01 +/- 0.18
Kansas -0.17 +/- 0.22 Iowa State -0.01 +/- 0.19
TCU -0.22 +/- 0.27 TCU -0.09 +/- 0.25
West Virginia -0.26 +/- 0.23 Kansas -0.23 +/- 0.23
Oklahoma State -0.27 +/- 0.27 West Virginia -0.31 +/- 0.20
Oklahoma -0.40 +/- 0.25 Oklahoma -0.63 +/- 0.34
Average offense (pts) Average defense (pts) Total Points Scoring Margin (pts)
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
Iowa State 77.86 Texas Tech 58.86 West Virginia 148.00 Texas Tech +13.07
Kansas 75.43 Kansas State 59.71 TCU 146.43 Iowa State +10.43
TCU 75.43 Baylor 66.86 Kansas 145.79 Kansas State +5.96
Baylor 72.04 Texas 67.39 Iowa State 145.29 Baylor +5.18
Texas Tech 71.93 Iowa State 67.43 Oklahoma State 138.96 Kansas +5.07
West Virginia 71.46 Oklahoma 67.82 Baylor 138.89 TCU +4.43
Texas 71.36 Kansas 70.36 Texas 138.75 Texas +3.96
Oklahoma 70.57 TCU 71.00 Oklahoma 138.39 Oklahoma +2.75
Oklahoma State 67.32 Oklahoma State 71.64 Texas Tech 130.79 Oklahoma State -4.32
Kansas State 65.68 West Virginia 76.54 Kansas State 125.39 West Virginia -5.07
Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Kansas 83.17 ( 1)
Oklahoma State 82.56 ( 2)
Oklahoma 82.14 ( 5)
Texas 81.59 (11)
West Virginia 80.78 (16)
Kansas State 80.01 (24)
Iowa State 79.69 (33)
TCU 79.42 (37)
Baylor 79.26 (40)
Texas Tech 78.68 (49)
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