Updated Big 12 Probabilities - We still need help

Still a bit of a longshot, but if we win out we have a great chance. That West Virginia loss is really haunting us.

I did a back-of-the-envelope rough analysis using Sagarin's predictor and it basically comes down to 4 games.

In this round, we won, KSU lost and Tech and Baylor will likely win. Likely records by the end of this week:
KSU: 11-4
Tech: 11-4
KU: 10-5
Baylor: 10-5

Saturday is the first place where Sagarin predicts movement. KSU beats Baylor, Tech wins @TCU, KU wins @OSU. Updated standings:
KSU: 12-4
Tech: 12-4
KU: 11-5
Baylor: 10-6

Next week, KSU takes a hit: KSU loses @TCU, Tech beats Texas, KU wins @OU, Baylor beats OU.
Updated standings:
KSU: 12-5
Tech: 13-4
KU: 12-5
Baylor: 11-6

Final games: KSU beats OU, Tech loses @ISU, KU beats Baylor in AFH.
Final standings:
KSU: 13-5
Tech: 13-5
KU: 13-5
Baylor: 11-7

Of those games, the KSU loss @TCU is the closest, followed by Tech losing @ISU, then Baylor losing @KSU and @KU (in that order...least likely to most likely).

That's the path, folks. We just need to put our heads down, get to 13, and hope that it's enough.