predictions for Kansas State game

Here's the scenario.  If you look at each team's remaining games, Kansas State
is still projected to lose in Lawrence and Fort Worth, which would give them
a 13-5 conference record, while Texas Tech is projected to lose in Ames, which
would also give them a 13-5 conference record.  Meanwhile, Kansas is projected
to win all of its remaining games, which would give the Jayhawks a 13-5 conference
record.  So there is a path to a (shared) conference championship, and it's
actually a reasonable path, but hardly a sure thing.  The typical inconsistency
is 11 points, and there is only one game among those three contenders with a
predicted margin in excess of that, so pretty much anything can happen.
Mathematically, Kansas could lose to Kansas State and still share the crown,
but that scenario requires the Wildcats to lose all three remaining games
while Kansas wins all three remaining games, along with a couple of losses
by Texas Tech, who is on a roll.  The odds of that happening are next to
nothing.  So the bottom line is that today's game is a must-win for Kansas.

Fortunately, Kansas is undefeated at home this season, the only Big 12 team
with an unblemished home record.  Some people will undoubtedly look at
Saturday's futility and write off the Jayhawks.  The negative trend has some
statistical significance to it, while the negative mental toughness rating
is marginally significant.  In contrast, Kansas State has a strong positive
trend and mental toughness rating.  Taken at face value, they predict a 1 point
win for Kansas State.

Most of the prognosticators have Kansas as the winner.  The only naysayer is
Dunkel, who is predicting a 4 point loss for Kansas.  The most optimistic
prediction comes from Real Time, who seems to be using a larger home court
advantage than all the other prognosticators, and has Kansas as a 9 point
favorite.  I do wonder what Real Time is smoking, however, because the
predicted score is 80 to 71, for a total of 151 points, which is more than
either team averages, and over 10 points more for Kansas than the next
highest prediction.

Both Colley's and Whitlock's ratings are out-of-date, so the Texas Tech
debacle is not reflected in their more optimistic margins.  ESPN's BPI
prediction is in line with Sagarin and Massey, while Greenfield and Vegas
have it closer to a one-possession game.  Trim your fingernails to avoid
having something to bite.

But what about Baylor, you ask, given that they have the same conference
record as Kansas?  Well, the Bears are projected to lose in Lawrence and
in Manhattan, finishing with an 11-7 record.  Theoretically not out of it,
but definitely having a steeper hill to climb.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     KSU     KU       Defensive Stats       KSU     KU
Points/Game         66.5    76.4     Opp Points/Game       59.3    70.6
Avg Score Margin    +7.2    +5.7     Opp Effective FG %   48.0%   47.9%
Assist/Game         13.9    13.6     Off Rebounds/Gm        8.2     8.9
Total Rebouds/Gm    33.9    37.2     Def Rebounds/Gm       23.0    25.7
Effective FG %      50.1    53.6     Blocks/Game            2.0     3.7
Off Rebound %       27.3    27.6     Steals/Game            7.4     7.0
FTA/FGA            0.316   0.332     Personal Fouls/Gm     16.4    17.4
Turnover %         15.6%   16.4%

Common Opponents
================
There are nine common opponents, eight in conference plus Marquette, one of which
Kansas has already played twice (TCU), one of which Kansas State has already played
twice (Oklahoma State),  and four of which both have played twice (Texas, Texas Tech,
est Virginia, Iowa State), in which case I will use only the home-home and road-road
permutations, plus the head-to-head in Manhattan, giving us sixteen scores to compare:

KU   +9 Mar neutral ( +9 neutral court)
KSU -12 Mar on road ( -8 neutral court)
KU  +21 KSU at home (+17 neutral court)

KU   +2 UT  at home ( -2 neutral court)     KU  -10 UT  on road ( -6 neutral court)
KSU -20 UT  at home (-24 neutral court)     KSU  +7 UT  on road (+11 neutral court)
KU  +26 KSU at home (+22 neutral court)     KU  -13 KSU at home (-17 neutral court)

KU  -29 TTU on road (-25 neutral court)     KU  +16 TTU at home (+12 neutral court)
KSU  -6 TTU on road ( -2 neutral court)     KSU +13 TTU at home ( +9 neutral court)
KU  -19 KSU at home (-23 neutral court)     KU   +7 KSU at home ( +3 neutral court)

KU  +25 WVU at home (+21 neutral court)     KU   -1 WVU on road ( +3 neutral court)
KSU  +2 WVU at home ( -2 neutral court)     KSU +14 WVU on road (+18 neutral court)
KU  +27 KSU at home (+23 neutral court)     KU  -11 KSU at home (-15 neutral court)

KU  -17 ISU on road (-13 neutral court)     KU   +4 ISU at home (  0 neutral court)
KSU  +1 ISU on road ( +5 neutral court)     KSU -14 ISU at home (-18 neutral court)
KU  -14 KSU at home (-18 neutral court)     KU  +22 KSU at home (+18 neutral court)

KU   +7 OU  at home ( +3 neutral court)
KSU +13 OU  on road (+17 neutral court)
KU  -10 KSU at home (-14 neutral court)

KU   +9 TCU at home ( +5 neutral court)     KU   +5 TCU on road ( +9 neutral court)
KSU +10 TCU at home ( +6 neutral court)     KSU +10 TCU at home ( +6 neutral court)
KU   +3 KSU at home ( -1 neutral court)     KU   +7 KSU at home ( +3 neutral court)

KU  +12 OSU at home ( +8 neutral court)     KU  +12 OSU at home ( +8 neutral court)
KSU +18 OSU on road (+22 neutral court)     KSU +39 OSU at home (+35 neutral court)
KU  -10 KSU at home (-14 neutral court)     KU  -23 KSU at home (-27 neutral court)

KU   +5 BU  on road ( +9 neutral court)
KSU  +7 BU  on road (+11 neutral court)
KU   +2 KSU at home ( -2 neutral court)

KU   -7 KSU on road ( -3 neutral court)
KU   +1 KSU at home ( -3 neutral court)

Nine of the comparisons favor Kansas, while seven favor Kansas State.  There are some
fairly large differences, but the average is a single point in favor of Kansas.  The
scatter is a whopping 16.3 points.  Lots of inconsistent play here.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Barry Brown (guard)
most points        Barry Brown (guard)
most rebounds      Dean Wade (forward)
most assists       Kamau Stokes (guard)
most steals        Barry Brown (guard)
most blocks        Makol Mawien (forward)
most turnovers     Barry Brown (guard)
most fouls         Makol Mawien (forward)

Guard Cartier Diarra is out with a hand injury.  Stokes apparently has turf toe,
which can be a lingering injury, but won't keep him from playing, though it might
slow him down a bit, as would Garrett's high ankle sprain.  Wade is playing,
which means that new foot injury during the Iowa State game must not have been
too bad.

                                                          20-7            21-6
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Kansas State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall         +5.35   67   62                # 11   #  1     # 21   # 35 
Sagarin Predictor       +5.89   67   61       70.2     # 11   #  1     # 23   # 35 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +5.79   67   61                #  9   #  1     # 18   # 35 
Sagarin Recent Games    +1.52   65   64                # 28   #  1     # 22   # 35
Sagarin Eigenvector     +6.55   68   61       73       
Massey                  +5.00   68   63       68       # 18   #  2     # 19   # 28
Pomeroy                 +4.33   66   62                # 18   #  1     # 25   # 40
Greenfield              +3.50   68.5 65                # 15   #  5     # 25   # 27
Dunkel                  -4.00   69   73                # 12            # 27       
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +3.50   68   65                                           
Dolphin Predictive      +3.28   66   63       61.8     # 19   #  7     # 23   # 32
Real Time               +9.00   80   71                #  7   #  1     # 22   # 50 
Seven Overtimes         +2.00   69   67       73       #  5   #  1     # 41   # 21
DPPI                    +1.30   69.5 68                # 21   #  1     # 17   # 45 
ESPN BPI                +5.70                 71.5     # 17   #  1     # 29   # 38
Whitlock                +7.48                          # 11   #  1     # 27   # 30
Colley Matrix           +8.59                          #  5   #  1     # 15   # 23
NCAA NET                                               # 15            # 10
common opponents        +1.00                                                                     
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                 +4.2    68.4 64.7
scatter                  3.1     3.6  3.8

Here is Kansas' season; the season record projection remains at 23-8; there
are no more projected losses, though the game in Norman is effectively a
toss-up:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  5 Michigan State              92  87    -4.55    +9.55
HOME   # 90 Vermont                     84  68   +14.13    +1.87
HOME   #166 Louisiana                   89  76   +20.62    -7.62
NEUT   # 17 Marquette                   77  68    +1.67    +7.33
NEUT   #  7 Tennessee                   87  81    -1.44    +7.44
HOME   #105 Stanford                    90  84   +15.61    -9.61
HOME   # 45 Wofford                     72  47    +9.40   +15.60
HOME   # 61 New Mexico State            63  60   +12.20    -9.20
HOME   # 19 Villanova                   74  71    +5.15    -2.15
HOME   #211 South Dakota                89  53   +23.61   +12.39
AWAY   # 48 Arizona State               76  80    +3.90    -7.90
HOME   #163 Eastern Michigan            87  63   +20.46    +3.54
HOME   # 28 Oklahoma                    70  63    +6.78    +0.22
AWAY   # 14 Iowa State                  60  77    -2.22   -14.78
HOME   # 36 TCU                         77  68    +7.89    +1.11
AWAY   # 38 Baylor                      73  68    +2.11    +2.89
HOME   # 27 Texas                       80  78    +6.47    -4.47
AWAY   # 89 West Virginia               64  65    +7.76    -8.76
HOME   # 14 Iowa State                  80  76    +4.06    -0.06
AWAY   #  6 Kentucky                    63  71    -5.81    -2.19
AWAY   # 27 Texas                       63  73    +0.19   -10.19
HOME   #  8 Texas Tech                  79  63    +2.01   +13.99
AWAY   # 23 Kansas State                67  74    -0.40    -6.60
HOME   # 91 Oklahoma State              84  72   +14.18    -2.18
AWAY   # 36 TCU                         82  77    +1.61    +3.39
HOME   # 89 West Virginia               78  53   +14.04   +10.96
AWAY   #  8 Texas Tech                  62  91    -4.27   -24.73
HOME   # 23 Kansas State                          +5.88             0.702
AWAY   # 91 Oklahoma State                        +7.90             0.773
AWAY   # 28 Oklahoma                              +0.50             0.519
HOME   # 38 Baylor                                +8.39             0.767

Here is Kansas State's season; note the projected losses in Lawrence and
in Fort Worth:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #344 Kennesaw State              56  41   +33.18   -18.18
HOME   #303 Denver                      64  56   +26.69   -18.69
NEUT   #251 Eastern Kentucky            95  68   +20.28    +6.72
NEUT   #130 Pennsylvania                64  48   +11.69    +4.31
NEUT   # 88 Missouri                    82  67    +8.09    +6.91
HOME   #149 Lehigh                      77  58   +16.67    +2.33
AWAY   # 17 Marquette                   71  83    -4.21    -7.79
AWAY   #119 Tulsa                       46  47    +7.67    -8.67
HOME   #126 Georgia State               71  59   +14.51    -2.51
HOME   #131 Southern Miss               55  51   +15.08   -11.08
HOME   # 94 Vanderbilt                  69  58   +11.73    -0.73
HOME   #144 George Mason                59  58   +16.16   -15.16
HOME   # 27 Texas                       47  67    +3.73   -23.73
AWAY   #  8 Texas Tech                  57  63    -7.01    +1.01
HOME   # 89 West Virginia               71  69   +11.30    -9.30
AWAY   # 14 Iowa State                  58  57    -4.96    +5.96
AWAY   # 28 Oklahoma                    74  61    -2.24   +15.24
HOME   # 36 TCU                         65  55    +5.15    +4.85
HOME   #  8 Texas Tech                  58  45    -0.73   +13.73
AWAY   # 75 Texas A&M                   53  65    +4.06   -16.06
AWAY   # 91 Oklahoma State              75  57    +5.16   +12.84
HOME   # 11 Kansas                      74  67    +0.40    +6.60
AWAY   # 38 Baylor                      70  63    -0.63    +7.63
AWAY   # 27 Texas                       71  64    -2.55    +9.55
HOME   # 14 Iowa State                  64  78    +1.32   -15.32
AWAY   # 89 West Virginia               65  51    +5.02    +8.98
HOME   # 91 Oklahoma State              85  46   +11.44   +27.56
AWAY   # 11 Kansas                                -5.88             0.298
HOME   # 38 Baylor                                +5.65             0.669
AWAY   # 36 TCU                                   -1.13             0.463
HOME   # 28 Oklahoma                              +4.04             0.633