Updated Big 12 Projections

A 22 point below projection performance hits pretty hard in the standings. In fact, KU fell to 21st in the DPPI.



That is what happens when you have zero seniors and 4 freshmen starting. Inconsistency is a hallmark of freshmen and we saw it in spades yesterday. As the saying goes, we are not as good as our best game nor are we as bad as our worst game. Well, this was our worst game by a good margin. It was a 22 point below expectation performance. That may not happen again for several years. It is so anomalous that it is hard to even figure in to the K-State game on Monday if it even does. We may come out burning the nets, who knows. Texas Tech was simply on fire. They had 6 guys hit 2 or more 3 pointers and 4 guys hit 3 or more. They shot 60% on 3 pointers when 6 guys were shooting them. That is a once a year at most occurrence. We just happened to catch them on a night when everything was clicking. And our youngsters were unprepared for how to respond.

It does not spell doom for the 15th Big 12 title but the rotund lady is warming up her voice. KU drops to a 7.3% probability of winning a shared title in the Big 12. Virtually no probability of winning outright. K-State has all but sewed up a share of the title. Mathematically 5 teams can still grab a share. But practically it is down to a 2 team race with KU holding onto the slimmest of hopes.





KU flipped back to a negative trend while Texas Tech and K-State have the best trends in the conference.



The following graphs gives the probabilities for all remaining games as well as past games.