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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Big 12 projection, Round 15
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6 years 8 months ago #21497
by asteroid
Lightning struck twice, and Iowa State fell to TCU, while Baylor escaped with a win over
a West Virginia team that had a 2 point lead with less than 2:30 to play, so Baylor took
over fourth place from the Cyclones. No other changes in the projected standings.
Init. Rnd 1 Rnd 2 Rnd 3 Rnd 4 Rnd 5 Rnd 6 Rnd 7 Rnd 8 Rnd 9
Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj.
Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins
-------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Kansas State 7.81 6.43 6.43 6.63 7.59 8.85 9.59 10.43 10.21 10.87
Texas Tech 11.96 12.28 12.35 12.71 13.27 12.28 11.39 10.65 11.08 10.71
Kansas 12.80 13.08 12.07 12.50 12.87 13.01 12.20 12.60 11.89 12.31
Baylor 6.32 6.33 6.24 7.06 6.72 7.51 8.33 9.09 10.29 10.83
Iowa State 10.49 10.85 11.75 11.07 10.07 10.97 11.17 10.81 11.27 11.56
Texas 8.51 9.83 10.18 9.36 8.73 8.61 9.04 8.67 9.08 8.78
TCU 9.99 9.87 10.00 9.68 9.46 10.05 9.32 9.70 8.97 8.23
Oklahoma 10.61 10.41 10.34 10.10 10.44 9.05 8.55 9.18 8.34 7.60
Oklahoma State 5.22 4.82 4.72 5.34 6.30 5.60 5.45 4.85 5.05 4.53
West Virginia 6.29 6.10 5.92 5.55 4.55 4.07 4.96 4.02 3.82 4.58
Rd 10 Rd 11 Rd 12 Rd 13 Rd 14 Rd 15
Pred Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Conf
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Record Next Game Prediction
---- -------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ --------- -----------
# 21 Kansas State 11.59 12.27 12.96 12.42 12.79 13.08 11 3 @KU (Mo)
# 8 Texas Tech 11.00 11.65 12.02 12.29 12.32 12.71 10 4 OSU (We) TTU by 15.2
# 11 Kansas 11.67 11.61 12.12 12.24 12.20 11.76 9 5 KSU (Mo) KU by 5.8
# 38 Baylor 10.32 9.75 10.15 9.83 10.61 10.86 9 5 UT (We) BU by 1.2
# 13 Iowa State 12.11 11.21 11.21 11.79 11.05 10.48 8 6 OU (Mo) ISU by 5.9
# 27 Texas 9.28 9.81 9.06 9.27 9.26 8.89 7 7 @BU (We)
# 34 TCU 8.38 9.21 8.74 8.02 7.40 7.90 6 8 @WVU (Tu) TCU by 3.1 RW
# 28 Oklahoma 6.98 6.38 5.95 6.57 6.60 6.97 5 9 @ISU (Mo)
# 89 Oklahoma State 4.33 4.25 3.91 3.78 4.42 4.17 3 11 @TTU (We)
# 88 West Virginia 4.34 3.86 3.88 3.79 3.35 3.18 2 12 TCU (Tu)
Real Time, known for using a larger home court advantage, took honors for best prognostications in
Round 15. Greenfield retains the season lead.
Predictions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
KSU over OSU 9.8 11.0 9.9 10.0 12.5 10.0 10.0 22.6 12.4 12.3 10.0 15.0 9.7 12.0 11.1
BU over WVU 8.8 12.0 11.7 12.0 10.5 13.0 13.6 13.3 13.2 14.1 8.0 15.0 11.9 14.2 17.1
TTU over KU 3.3 5.0 5.3 5.5 2.5 5.0 5.4 -2.2 3.9 6.5 1.0 7.0 -5.0 -7.3 -6.7
OU over UT 3.2 3.0 1.6 4.0 -3.5 3.5 1.5 5.2 2.6 2.2 -5.0 7.0 2.7 5.0 -1.0
ISU over TCU 0.9 3.0 2.2 1.0 -1.5 1.5 2.2 1.1 2.5 1.9 3.0 -4.0 2.0 -0.3 3.4
Reality Error
------- --1-----------1-----1-----3-----1-----------1-----1-----1-----------2-----------1-----2-
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
39 29.2 28.0 29.1 29.0 26.5 29.0 29.0 16.4 26.6 26.7 29.0 24.0 29.3 27.0 27.9
7 1.8 5.0 4.7 5.0 3.5 6.0 6.6 6.3 6.2 7.1 1.0 8.0 4.9 7.2 10.1
29 25.7 24.0 23.7 23.5 26.5 24.0 23.6 31.2 25.1 22.5 28.0 22.0 34.0 36.3 35.7
2 1.2 1.0 0.4 2.0 5.5 1.5 0.5 3.2 0.6 0.2 7.0 5.0 0.7 3.0 3.0
-3 3.9 6.0 5.2 4.0 1.5 4.5 5.2 4.1 5.5 4.9 6.0 1.0 5.0 2.7 6.4
total 61.8 64.0 63.1 63.5 63.5 65.0 64.9 61.2 64.0 61.4 71.0 60.0 73.9 76.2 83.1
previous 581.8 609.0 573.0 567.0 615.0 570.0 590.0 752.7 627.5 580.1 655.0 681.0 609.1 634.2 638.4
cumulative 643.6 673.0 636.1 630.5 678.5 635.0 654.9 813.9 691.5 641.5 726.0 741.0 683.0 710.4 721.5
per game 9.2 9.6 9.1 9.0 9.7 9.1 9.4 11.6 9.9 9.2 10.4 10.6 9.8 10.1 10.3
Only one road win was projected for Round 15, and it didn't happen, which isn't a big surprise
considering how it was projected to be nearly a toss-up. So we're now only two road wins ahead
of the long-term average of one-in-three. Just one road win is projected for Round 16, with TCU
traveling to Morgantown, and that one might not happen, as TCU hasn't been that great on the road,
while West Virginia just gave Baylor everything the Bears could handle before falling late.
Road wins (26 out of 70) Home losses Differential (RW-HL)
---------------------------------------- ------------------------------------ --------------------
6 Kansas State ISU OU OSU BU UT WVU 0 Kansas +4 Kansas State
4 Baylor OSU WVU OU ISU 1 Texas Tech ISU +3 Texas Tech
4 Iowa State OSU TTU OU KSU 2 Baylor KU KSU +2 Baylor
4 Texas Tech WVU UT OU OSU 2 Kansas State UT ISU +2 Kansas
2 Kansas BU TCU 2 TCU KU OU +1 Iowa State
2 Oklahoma OSU TCU 2 Texas TTU KSU 0 Texas
2 Texas KSU WVU 3 Iowa State KSU TCU BU -1 TCU
1 Oklahoma State WVU 4 Oklahoma KSU BU ISU TTU -2 Oklahoma
1 TCU ISU 5 Oklahoma State ISU BU OU KSU TTU -4 Oklahoma State
0 West Virginia 5 West Virginia TTU OSU BU UT KSU -5 West Virginia
The inconsistency for Kansas jumped by over a point, yet the Jayhawks are still the
conference's most consistent team. It would have been highly unusual if a game like
that had not happened at some point during the season.
Performance (points) Inconsistency (points)
--------------------- ----------------------
Texas Tech +1.74 Kansas 9.41
Iowa State +1.21 West Virginia 9.93
Baylor +0.45 Iowa State 10.13
Texas +0.13 Oklahoma 11.18
TCU +0.10 Texas 11.21
Oklahoma -0.04 Texas Tech 11.32
Kansas State -0.58 TCU 11.45
Kansas -0.74 Oklahoma State 11.54
Oklahoma State -1.00 Kansas State 12.59
West Virginia -2.53 Baylor 13.25
Kansas State is back on top in both trend and mental toughness.
Trend (points per game) Mental toughness
------------------------------ ------------------------------
Kansas State +0.69 +/- 0.29 Kansas State +0.46 +/- 0.24
Baylor +0.59 +/- 0.31 Baylor +0.37 +/- 0.23
Texas Tech +0.35 +/- 0.28 Texas +0.36 +/- 0.24
Texas +0.23 +/- 0.28 Texas Tech +0.01 +/- 0.18
Iowa State +0.03 +/- 0.26 Oklahoma State -0.01 +/- 0.27
TCU -0.17 +/- 0.29 Iowa State -0.02 +/- 0.19
Kansas -0.27 +/- 0.23 TCU -0.08 +/- 0.25
Oklahoma -0.35 +/- 0.27 Kansas -0.24 +/- 0.23
Oklahoma State -0.40 +/- 0.28 West Virginia -0.32 +/- 0.20
West Virginia -0.40 +/- 0.24 Oklahoma -0.57 +/- 0.36
Average offense (pts) Average defense (pts) Total Points Scoring Margin (pts)
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
Iowa State 77.93 Texas Tech 58.00 Kansas 147.00 Texas Tech +13.56
Kansas 75.93 Kansas State 59.63 West Virginia 146.07 Iowa State +10.33
TCU 74.59 Baylor 66.19 Iowa State 145.52 Kansas State +6.59
Baylor 71.67 Texas 66.85 TCU 144.44 Baylor +5.48
Texas Tech 71.56 Oklahoma 67.52 Oklahoma 138.37 Kansas +4.85
Oklahoma 70.85 Iowa State 67.59 Oklahoma State 138.04 TCU +4.74
Texas 70.85 TCU 69.85 Baylor 137.85 Texas +4.00
West Virginia 70.33 Kansas 71.07 Texas 137.70 Oklahoma +3.33
Oklahoma State 66.78 Oklahoma State 71.26 Texas Tech 129.56 Oklahoma State -4.48
Kansas State 66.22 West Virginia 75.74 Kansas State 125.85 West Virginia -5.41
A little surprised that Texas Tech's Strength of Schedule ranking didn't improve very much
after playing Kansas. Playing tough opponents on the road helps the most, so Baylor should
climb a lot by the end of the regular season.
Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Kansas 83.27 ( 1)
Oklahoma State 82.26 ( 2)
Oklahoma 81.83 ( 6)
Texas 81.23 (12)
West Virginia 80.84 (16)
Iowa State 79.67 (29)
Kansas State 79.48 (33)
TCU 79.28 (38)
Baylor 79.03 (40)
Texas Tech 78.83 (44)
The following user(s) said Thank You: hairyhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk
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