predictions for Texas Tech game

Whoever wins this game will be projected to finish with a 13-5 conference
record, tying with Kansas State.  Whoever loses will need help to stay in
the hunt for a share of the crown.  It's that simple.

Kansas is the Big 12's most consistent team.  Only two double-digit
below-expectation performances, both being road games, and four double-digit
above-expectation performances, all being home games.  One of those
double-digit above-expectation performances came against Tech in Lawrence;
another was the most recent outing against West Virginia.  Kansas has not
had back-to-back double-digit above-expectation performances this season,
nor has one occurred on the road.  Then again, the Jayhawks don't actually
need a double-digit above-expectation performance.  Just 4 points above
expectation would be enough to get a win.  Unfortunately, the best road
effort of the season for the Jayhawks came in Fort Worth, when they played
2.9 points above expectation.  The game in Waco was just 2.3 points above
expectation.  So it will take the best road game of the season for Kansas
to pull off a win.  Nor has Kansas had more than two consecutive
above-expectation performances all season long, but to win in Lubbock would
require a third consecutive above-expectation performance.

The various prognosticators are similarly pessimistic.  Most of the predictions
call for a 3 to 7 point loss by Kansas.  Common opponents is the most
pessimistic, expecting an 8 point loss.  But there are two outliers that offer
a glimmer of hope.  Colley has Tech rated low enough to more than offset the
home court advantage, so his ratings would suggest a 2 point Kansas win.  And
Sagarin's eigenvector analysis contradicts his other four methods in calling
for a 2 point Kansas win.

The most optimistic prediction stems from the head-to-head in Lawrence, which
the Jayhawks won by 16 points.  Because the swap of venue amounted to an
average of 11 points last season in the Big 12, one might expect Kansas to
enjoy a 5 point win today.  Of course, a one-game sample size isn't much to
go on.

Neither team's trend nor mental toughness ratings are statistically
significant, but taken at face value would predict a 7 point loss for Kansas.

But Kansas seems to be playing better as a team now than at any point in the
season.  Whether the absence of Vick has anything to do with that is open to
debate.  One could also note that Garrett has been similarly absent from recent
games due to his high angle sprain, so his potential return for today's game
could alter that team chemistry of the last three games.  Then again, Garrett
is the team's best defender, and Tech seems to live and die by Culver, so if
Garrett could shut down Culver, that might give the Jayhawks their best shot
at winning.  But Garrett won't be at 100 percent, nor will he likely be at
100 percent for the rest of the season.  Those high angle sprains are just
that bad.

Eight of the last nine games that Texas Tech has played have been double-digit
either above or below expectation performances, including the last six,
indicating a fair bit of inconsistency lately.  Five of those last six were
above-expectation performances.  The one that was below came against Kansas.
Lightning struck twice for the Horned Frogs against the Cyclones.  Why not
for Kansas?

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     TTU     KU       Defensive Stats       TTU     KU
Points/Game         71.5    76.9     Opp Points/Game       57.2    69.8
Avg Score Margin   +14.3    +7.1     Opp Effective FG %   41.7%   46.9%
Assist/Game         13.2    13.8     Off Rebounds/Gm        8.1     9.0
Total Rebouds/Gm    34.0    37.7     Def Rebounds/Gm       23.8    26.0
Effective FG %      53.0    53.5     Blocks/Game            4.9     3.8
Off Rebound %       28.3    27.8     Steals/Game            7.3     7.1
FTA/FGA            0.348   0.335     Personal Fouls/Gm     18.2    17.4
Turnover %         16.8%   16.3%

Common Opponents
================
There are eight common opponents, all in conference, three of which Kansas has
already played twice (Texas, Iowa State, TCU), three of which Texas Tech has
already played twice (Kansas State, Oklahoma, Baylor), and one of which both
have played twice (West Virginia), in which case I will use only the home-home
and road-road permutations, plus the head-to-head in Lawrence, giving us sixteen
scores to compare:

KU   -1 WVU on road ( +3 neutral court)     KU  +25 WVU at home (+21 neutral court)
TTU  +3 WVU on road ( +7 neutral court)     TTU +31 WVU at home (+27 neutral court)
KU   -8 TTU on road ( -4 neutral court)     KU  -10 WVU on road ( -6 neutral court)

KU   -7 KSU on road ( -3 neutral court)     KU   -7 KSU on road ( -3 neutral court)
TTU  +6 KSU at home ( +2 neutral court)     TTU -13 KSU on road ( -9 neutral court)
KU   -9 TTU on road ( -5 neutral court)     KU   +2 TTU on road ( +6 neutral court)

KU   +7 OU  at home ( +3 neutral court)     KU   +7 OU  at home ( +3 neutral court)
TTU  +7 OU  at home ( +3 neutral court)     TTU +12 OU  on road ( +8 neutral court)
KU   -4 TTU on road (  0 neutral court)     KU   -9 TTU on road ( -5 neutral court)

KU  -10 UT  on road ( -6 neutral court)     KU   +2 UT  at home ( -2 neutral court)
TTU  +6 UT  on road (+10 neutral court)     TTU  +6 UT  on road (+10 neutral court)
KU  -20 TTU on road (-16 neutral court)     KU  -16 TTU on road (-12 neutral court)

KU   +4 ISU at home (  0 neutral court)     KU  -17 ISU on road (-13 neutral court)
TTU  -4 ISU at home ( -8 neutral court)     TTU  -4 ISU at home ( -8 neutral court)
KU   +4 TTU on road ( +8 neutral court)     KU   -9 TTU on road ( -5 neutral court)

KU   +5 BU  on road ( +9 neutral court)     KU   +5 BU  on road ( +9 neutral court)
TTU -11 BU  on road ( -7 neutral court)     TTU +25 BU  at home (+21 neutral court)
KU  +12 TTU on road (+16 neutral court)     KU  -16 TTU on road (-12 neutral court)

KU   +9 TCU at home ( +5 neutral court)     KU   +5 TCU on road ( +9 neutral court)
TTU +19 TCU at home (+15 neutral court)     TTU +19 TCU at home (+15 neutral court)
KU  -14 TTU on road (-10 neutral court)     KU  -10 TTU on road ( -6 neutral court)

KU  +12 OSU at home ( +8 neutral court)
TTU +28 OSU on road (+32 neutral court)
KU  -28 TTU on road (-24 neutral court)

KU  +16 TTU at home (+12 neutral court)
KU   +8 TTU on road (+12 neutral court)

Twelve of the comparisons favor Texas Tech, while only four favor Kansas, though
the head-to-head is the one that matters the most.  The average is 7.9 points in
favor of Texas Tech.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Jarrett Culver (guard)
most points        Jarrett Culver (guard)
most rebounds      Jarrett Culver (guard)
most assists       Jarrett Culver (guard)
most steals        Matt Mooney (guard)
most blocks        Tariq Owens (forward)
most turnovers     Jarrett Culver (guard)
most fouls         Tariq Owens (forward)

Looks like Texas Tech is still as one-dimensional as they were for the first game.
Control Culver, and you control the game.  Little-used forward Khavon Moore is out
with a season-ending leg injury.

                                                          20-6            21-5
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Texas Tech
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall         -3.08   65   68                # 10   #  1     # 11   # 47 
Sagarin Predictor       -3.26   65   68       36.6     # 11   #  1     # 10   # 47 
Sagarin Golden Mean     -1.86   66   67                #  9   #  1     # 11   # 47 
Sagarin Recent Games    -3.60   65   68                # 20   #  1     # 16   # 47
Sagarin Eigenvector     +1.97   67   65       58       
Massey                  -5.00   64   69       33       # 13   #  2     # 12   # 41
Pomeroy                 -5.33   62   67                # 15   #  1     #  9   # 53
Greenfield              -5.50   65   70.5              # 13   #  5     # 11   # 18
Dunkel                  -2.50   64   67                # 12            #  9       
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -5.00   65   70                                           
Dolphin Predictive      -5.43   63   69       31.1     # 17   #  7     #  9   # 20
Real Time               -7.00   72   79       34.6     #  5   #  1     # 17   # 59 
Seven Overtimes         -1.00   69   70       49       #  3   #  1     # 30   # 40
DPPI                    -4.10   68   72       30.3     # 13   #  1     #  9   # 57 
ESPN BPI                -6.50                 27.2     # 15   #  1     # 10   # 52
Whitlock                -3.92                          # 11   #  1     #  9   # 54
Colley Matrix           +2.16                          #  5   #  1     # 14   # 44
NCAA NET                                               # 15            # 10
common opponents        -7.94                                                                     
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                 -3.7    65.7 69.3
scatter                  2.7     2.6  3.3

Here is Kansas' season; the season record projection remains at 23-8, with
a projected loss at Texas Tech:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  5 Michigan State              92  87    -3.86    +8.86
HOME   # 83 Vermont                     84  68   +14.13    +1.87
HOME   #172 Louisiana                   89  76   +21.42    -8.42
NEUT   # 19 Marquette                   77  68    +2.59    +6.41
NEUT   #  7 Tennessee                   87  81    -0.94    +6.94
HOME   #104 Stanford                    90  84   +15.75    -9.75
HOME   # 45 Wofford                     72  47   +10.13   +14.87
HOME   # 60 New Mexico State            63  60   +12.20    -9.20
HOME   # 18 Villanova                   74  71    +5.23    -2.23
HOME   #216 South Dakota                89  53   +24.34   +11.66
AWAY   # 46 Arizona State               76  80    +3.97    -7.97
HOME   #158 Eastern Michigan            87  63   +20.75    +3.25
HOME   # 26 Oklahoma                    70  63    +6.98    +0.02
AWAY   # 13 Iowa State                  60  77    -1.98   -15.02
HOME   # 36 TCU                         77  68    +8.31    +0.69
AWAY   # 38 Baylor                      73  68    +2.67    +2.33
HOME   # 28 Texas                       80  78    +7.02    -5.02
AWAY   # 92 West Virginia               64  65    +8.37    -9.37
HOME   # 13 Iowa State                  80  76    +4.26    -0.26
AWAY   #  6 Kentucky                    63  71    -4.92    -3.08
AWAY   # 28 Texas                       63  73    +0.78   -10.78
HOME   # 10 Texas Tech                  79  63    +2.97   +13.03
AWAY   # 25 Kansas State                67  74    +0.56    -7.56
HOME   # 73 Oklahoma State              84  72   +13.50    -1.50
AWAY   # 36 TCU                         82  77    +2.07    +2.93
HOME   # 92 West Virginia               78  53   +14.61   +10.39
AWAY   # 10 Texas Tech                            -3.27             0.366
HOME   # 25 Kansas State                          +6.80             0.752
AWAY   # 73 Oklahoma State                        +7.26             0.781
AWAY   # 26 Oklahoma                              +0.74             0.530
HOME   # 38 Baylor                                +8.91             0.786

Here is Texas Tech's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #345 Incarnate Word              87  37   +36.44   +13.56
HOME   #350 MVSU(Miss. Valley St.)      84  52   +40.03    -8.03
HOME   #258 SE Louisiana                59  40   +27.02    -8.02
NEUT   # 67 Southern California         78  63   +10.29    +4.71
NEUT   # 30 Nebraska                    70  52    +4.46   +13.54
HOME   #183 Northern Colorado           93  62   +22.34    +8.66
NEUT   # 68 Memphis                     78  67   +10.29    +0.71
HOME   #330 Ark.-Pine Bluff             65  47   +33.02   -15.02
HOME   #334 Northwestern State          79  44   +34.02    +0.98
HOME   #180 Abilene Christian           82  48   +22.02   +11.98
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        58  69    -7.52    -3.48
HOME   #195 UTRGV                       71  46   +23.22    +1.78
AWAY   # 92 West Virginia               62  59    +8.52    -5.52
HOME   # 25 Kansas State                63  57    +6.95    -0.95
HOME   # 26 Oklahoma                    66  59    +7.13    -0.13
AWAY   # 28 Texas                       68  62    +0.93    +5.07
HOME   # 13 Iowa State                  64  68    +4.41    -8.41
AWAY   # 38 Baylor                      62  73    +2.82   -13.82
AWAY   # 25 Kansas State                45  58    +0.71   -13.71
HOME   # 55 Arkansas                    67  64   +11.72    -8.72
HOME   # 36 TCU                         84  65    +8.46   +10.54
AWAY   # 11 Kansas                      63  79    -2.97   -13.03
HOME   # 92 West Virginia               81  50   +14.76   +16.24
AWAY   # 26 Oklahoma                    66  54    +0.89   +11.11
AWAY   # 73 Oklahoma State              78  50    +7.41   +20.59
HOME   # 38 Baylor                      86  61    +9.06   +15.94
HOME   # 11 Kansas                                +3.27             0.634
HOME   # 73 Oklahoma State                       +13.65             0.902
AWAY   # 36 TCU                                   +2.22             0.579
HOME   # 28 Texas                                 +7.17             0.742
AWAY   # 13 Iowa State                            -1.83             0.431