Big 12 projection, Round 14

Oklahoma State defended its home court against TCU while West Virginia failed to do so
against Kansas State, so the Mountaineers drop into last place again.  No other changes,
though the first-place Wildcats are now favored to go 13-5, while Texas Tech and Kansas
are looking at 12-6.  However, either the Red Raiders or the Jayhawks will join the
Wildcats with a projected 13-5 record after Saturday's action.  Iowa State's chances of
sharing the crown took a hit with their home loss to Baylor.

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2  Rnd 3  Rnd 4  Rnd 5  Rnd 6  Rnd 7  Rnd 8  Rnd 9
                      Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.
      Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins 
      --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
      Kansas State     7.81   6.43   6.43   6.63   7.59   8.85   9.59  10.43  10.21  10.87
      Texas Tech      11.96  12.28  12.35  12.71  13.27  12.28  11.39  10.65  11.08  10.71
      Kansas          12.80  13.08  12.07  12.50  12.87  13.01  12.20  12.60  11.89  12.31
      Iowa State      10.49  10.85  11.75  11.07  10.07  10.97  11.17  10.81  11.27  11.56
      Baylor           6.32   6.33   6.24   7.06   6.72   7.51   8.33   9.09  10.29  10.83
      Texas            8.51   9.83  10.18   9.36   8.73   8.61   9.04   8.67   9.08   8.78
      TCU              9.99   9.87  10.00   9.68   9.46  10.05   9.32   9.70   8.97   8.23
      Oklahoma        10.61  10.41  10.34  10.10  10.44   9.05   8.55   9.18   8.34   7.60
      Oklahoma State   5.22   4.82   4.72   5.34   6.30   5.60   5.45   4.85   5.05   4.53
      West Virginia    6.29   6.10   5.92   5.55   4.55   4.07   4.96   4.02   3.82   4.58

                      Rd 10  Rd 11  Rd 12  Rd 13  Rd 14
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
# 25  Kansas State    11.59  12.27  12.96  12.42  12.79   10  3   OSU (Sa)   KSU by  9.9
#  8  Texas Tech      11.00  11.65  12.02  12.29  12.32    9  4   KU  (Sa)   TTU by  3.5
# 11  Kansas          11.67  11.61  12.12  12.24  12.20    9  4  @TTU (Sa)   
# 14  Iowa State      12.11  11.21  11.21  11.79  11.05    8  5  @TCU (Sa)   ISU by  1.0  RW
# 38  Baylor          10.32   9.75  10.15   9.83  10.61    8  5   WVU (Sa)   BU  by  8.9  
# 28  Texas            9.28   9.81   9.06   9.27   9.26    7  6  @OU  (Sa)   
# 34  TCU              8.38   9.21   8.74   8.02   7.40    5  8   ISU (Sa)   
# 27  Oklahoma         6.98   6.38   5.95   6.57   6.60    4  9   UT  (Sa)   OU  by  3.1
# 73  Oklahoma State   4.33   4.25   3.91   3.78   4.42    3 10  @KSU (Sa)   
# 90  West Virginia    4.34   3.86   3.88   3.79   3.35    2 11  @BU  (Sa)   

For the third time this season, Dunkel took honors for best prognostications in Round 14,
with honorable mention to Vegas, though with only three games in the round, it's not worth
as much toward the season total.  Greenfield retains the season lead marginally over Vegas.

Predictions                                                                                           
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
ISU over BU    7.9   9.0   8.2  10.0  11.5   8.0   7.6  11.3   9.7  10.1   4.0  15.0   9.3  11.7   6.3
KSU over WVU   4.1   7.0   5.3   7.0  14.0   7.5   6.3  15.8   8.3   3.6  10.0  -2.0   5.6   3.3   7.5
TCU over OSU   2.6   4.0   3.1   2.5   5.5   3.0   3.4  11.6   5.0   4.4  10.0   2.0   3.8   1.4   5.5

     Reality  Error                                                                                  
     -------  --1-----------1-----1-----3-----1-----------1-----1-----1-----------1-----------1-----2-
              Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
        -4    11.9  13.0  12.2  14.0  15.5  12.0  11.6  15.3  13.7  14.1   8.0  19.0  13.3  15.7  10.3
        14     9.9   7.0   8.7   7.0   0.0   6.5   7.7   1.8   5.7  10.4   4.0  16.0   8.4  10.7   6.5
        -7     9.6  11.0  10.1   9.5  12.5  10.0  10.4  18.6  12.0  11.4  17.0   9.0  10.8   8.4  12.5

total         31.4  31.0  31.0  30.5  28.0  28.5  29.7  35.7  31.4  35.9  29.0  44.0  32.5  34.8  29.3
previous     581.8 609.0 573.0 567.0 615.0 570.0 590.0 752.7 627.5 580.1 655.0 681.0 609.1 634.2 638.4
cumulative   613.2 640.0 604.0 597.5 643.0 598.5 619.7 788.4 658.9 616.0 684.0 725.0 641.6 669.0 667.7
per game       9.4   9.8   9.3   9.2   9.9   9.2   9.5  12.1  10.1   9.5  10.5  11.2   9.9  10.3  10.3

Two road wins were projected for Round 14, and two actually happened, but one of those wasn't
projected, so now we're four road wins ahead of the long-term one-in-three average.  One road win
is projected for Round 15, though Iowa State is favored by only a single point in Fort Worth.

Road wins (26 out of 65)                   Home losses                            Differential (RW-HL)
----------------------------------------   ------------------------------------   --------------------
6 Kansas State   ISU OU  OSU BU  UT  WVU   0 Kansas                               +4 Kansas State  
4 Baylor         OSU WVU OU  ISU           1 Texas Tech     ISU                   +3 Texas Tech    
4 Iowa State     OSU TTU OU  KSU           2 Baylor         KU  KSU               +2 Baylor        
4 Texas Tech     WVU UT  OU  OSU           2 Kansas State   UT  ISU               +2 Kansas        
2 Kansas         BU  TCU                   2 TCU            KU  OU                +1 Iowa State    
2 Oklahoma       OSU TCU                   2 Texas          TTU KSU                0 Texas         
2 Texas          KSU WVU                   3 Iowa State     KSU TCU BU            -1 TCU           
1 Oklahoma State WVU                       4 Oklahoma       KSU BU  ISU TTU       -2 Oklahoma      
1 TCU            ISU                       5 Oklahoma State ISU BU  OU  KSU TTU   -4 Oklahoma State
0 West Virginia                            5 West Virginia  TTU OSU BU  UT  KSU   -5 West Virginia 

Performance (points)    Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------   ----------------------    
Texas Tech      +1.36   Kansas            8.16    
Iowa State      +1.18   West Virginia    10.07    
Baylor          +0.48   Iowa State       10.37    
Texas           +0.29   Oklahoma State   10.39    
TCU             +0.06   Texas Tech       10.67    
Kansas          -0.23   Texas            11.32    
Oklahoma        -0.25   Oklahoma         11.40    
Oklahoma State  -0.81   Kansas State     11.43    
Kansas State    -1.09   TCU              11.50    
West Virginia   -2.50   Baylor           13.60    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Baylor          +0.69 +/- 0.33    Kansas State    +0.50 +/- 0.21
Kansas State    +0.51 +/- 0.29    Baylor          +0.38 +/- 0.23
Texas           +0.25 +/- 0.30    Texas           +0.35 +/- 0.25
Texas Tech      +0.19 +/- 0.28    Oklahoma State  +0.09 +/- 0.25
Iowa State      +0.08 +/- 0.28    Iowa State       0.00 +/- 0.20
Kansas          -0.09 +/- 0.22    Texas Tech      -0.03 +/- 0.17
Oklahoma State  -0.21 +/- 0.27    Kansas          -0.10 +/- 0.21
TCU             -0.21 +/- 0.30    TCU             -0.12 +/- 0.26
Oklahoma        -0.38 +/- 0.29    West Virginia   -0.35 +/- 0.20
West Virginia   -0.48 +/- 0.25    Oklahoma        -0.58 +/- 0.37

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
Iowa State      78.08   Texas Tech      57.77   Kansas          146.77   Texas Tech      +13.12   
Kansas          76.38   Kansas State    60.08   West Virginia   145.65   Iowa State      +10.69   
TCU             74.65   Baylor          65.77   Iowa State      145.46   Kansas           +6.00   
Baylor          71.35   Texas           66.85   TCU             144.35   Baylor           +5.58   
Oklahoma        71.00   Iowa State      67.38   Oklahoma        138.46   Kansas State     +5.50   
Texas           70.92   Oklahoma        67.46   Oklahoma State  138.31   TCU              +4.96   
Texas Tech      70.88   TCU             69.69   Texas           137.77   Texas            +4.08   
West Virginia   70.08   Kansas          70.38   Baylor          137.12   Oklahoma         +3.54   
Oklahoma State  67.50   Oklahoma State  70.81   Texas Tech      128.65   Oklahoma State   -3.31   
Kansas State    65.58   West Virginia   75.58   Kansas State    125.65   West Virginia    -5.50   

Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Kansas          82.82 ( 1)
Oklahoma State  81.98 ( 3)
Oklahoma        81.64 ( 7)
Texas           80.86 (11)
West Virginia   80.44 (17)
Kansas State    79.78 (23)
Baylor          79.25 (31)
Iowa State      79.24 (32)
TCU             79.06 (37)
Texas Tech      78.49 (45)