State of the Union

Last season halfway through the conference season we sunk to a probability of winning the Big 12 of under 15%. Yet we came back to win. Two seasons ago we had a probability of under 30% halfway through the conference season and won our 13th straight. Have we had some luck along the way? Of course we have. But we have had as much bad luck as good luck. It has probably balanced out over the years. We have gone into seasons with virtually no real returning experience and still won the Big 12. I have been quick over the years to throw out questions concerning Self’s moves with players. I still look back and question a few. I am not one to think that he is infallible. But his moves have generally born out in the long run. I do question his willingness to allow Vick back. But I figure he had good reason. It did not seem like desperation given the rest of the roster. But from my quant view, while. Always support our Jayhawks, Vick’s numbers never seemed to speak well of his ability to contribute. Then he took off like a demon possessed and opened the season playing well. But even in the games where he had high point totals, the rest of the stats did not paint as rosy of a picture. But you can’t argue that he brought something to the table. It was looking like Self had made a difference. I stated in a post the early part of the season that I would reserve judgment until well into the conference season because Vicks numbers indicated he would fade as the season progressed especially into the conference season. As I watched the numbers saying that Vick was becoming a hindrance to excellence and maximum capability, I was questioning Self while at the same time realizing I had very limited insight. But the insight I had seemed pretty internally consistent. Well, lo and behold, Vick is no longer on the team after several egregious performances. Then, other players seem to begin to transform and the team performance began to approach a point where the whole is better than the sum of the parts. We are not there yet by a long shot. But it sure seems like the endemic weaknesses of this team are fading and the ceiling is coming into view. We very well may lose the Big 12. We may not do well in the NCAA. But my bet is that we may surprise a few people. Self has not been a star in the NCAA tourney but he is unparalleled in the regular season. I was starting to get a little concerned that this team was not going to purge the demons. I still am a little concerned that Grimes is getting preferential treatment on minutes. But while Garrett is hurt and with Vick gone, there is no option. But when Garrett returns, Grimes minutes should go way down. But the idea of team is “Together Everyone Achieves More” when you have players that are not making the team achieve more, that person may have individual talents but is not worthy of minutes when the team does not benefit. Some have said that without Vick, we may have lost several early games. That very well may be true, but I would submit, what if Agbaji had played from day one and Vick was not on the team. Is it possible that we may actually have fewer losses now? Who knows, but it is not unreasonable to conjecture that.

So summing this all up, we have a coach who has excelled in the regular season. We have a coach who (while sometimes a little later than maybe it could have been) makes the moves that end up moving us toward our ceiling. We have some talent that can meld into a seriously decent team. The state of the union is strong. I am reasonably optimistic about this season at this point. I don’t intend to be pejorative but I have been fairly consistent in saying that Vick has been a net detriment to the team. Vick is gone and the remaining parts are more than capable of being a contender. We do need Marcus back. But I like what I see with this team. The competition is seriously good this season. But we have had serious competition for the last several years. We have just been a notch better than the rest. I think Iowa St., Texas Tech and K-State, all have some very strong teams. But I think we have the potential to be better. I am finally optimistic that we are in a position to move toward that ceiling. I have not felt that all season. I may sound like a Vick brasher and I guess I am after a fashion. But this being a small board, I sure hope that you all know I (perhaps to too high of a degree) base my insights to some degree on my quantitative analysis and Vick’s numbers have been terrible. Grimes have been also but in a different way. And to the degree I use the subjective assessment, (which is substantial) the difference between a senior and freshman is pretty substantial. Again, the state of the union is stronger today than at any point of the season since early December at least.