Big 12 Projection

K-State is a 7.3 point favorite tonight over West Virginia. But West Virginia has a trend of -4.6 while Kansas St. has a trend of +3.4. That averages to +4.0 points for Kansas St. That makes them as much as a 11.3 point favorite. K-State has an 85% probability of winning before the trend adjustment. But hey, KU went to Morgantown with a 93% probability of winning. Let's hope West Virginia can pull a Wildcat out of a hat.

Right now, Kansas is 1.1 games behind K-State in the probability standings. Of course, if KU beats K-State that will make up a full game plus or minus depending how we perform compared to projection. A little more alarming is we are slightly behind Texas Tech. We have put ourselves in a situation where we may need to win out. We could lose this weekend and win the rest and have a decent shot since Iowa Sr. and Texas Tech play the last game of the season. We are tied for 3rd right now with Iowa St. What a crazy close race. K-State still has the best track but it is all very tenuous.



Here are the probability graphs.



And here are the trend graphs. KU has now a statistically positive trend of 1.7 points. Texas Tech has the best trend in the Big 12 at a crazy 7.4 points thanks to a couple big blowouts in the last two games and 4 straight games above expectation. K-State had a crazy high trend but the loss to Iowa St. hit it hard. It is still an impressive 3.4 points.