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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Big 12 projection, Round 13
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5 years 2 months ago #21344
by asteroid
Oklahoma State had a somewhat better chance of beating Texas than West Virginia did of
beating Kansas, so their losses hurt Oklahoma State somewhat more than West Virginia,
dropping the Cowboys into last place by the slimmest of margins. Similarly, Texas Tech
had a somewhat lesser chance of beating Baylor than Kansas did of beating West Virginia,
so their wins helped Texas Tech somewhat more than Kansas, allowing the Red Raiders to
climb into second place. Again, there will be no fractional wins at the end of the
season, so the way to think of the current situation is a four-way tie at 12-6.
Init. Rnd 1 Rnd 2 Rnd 3 Rnd 4 Rnd 5 Rnd 6 Rnd 7 Rnd 8 Rnd 9
Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj.
Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins
-------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Kansas State 7.81 6.43 6.43 6.63 7.59 8.85 9.59 10.43 10.21 10.87
Texas Tech 11.96 12.28 12.35 12.71 13.27 12.28 11.39 10.65 11.08 10.71
Kansas 12.80 13.08 12.07 12.50 12.87 13.01 12.20 12.60 11.89 12.31
Iowa State 10.49 10.85 11.75 11.07 10.07 10.97 11.17 10.81 11.27 11.56
Baylor 6.32 6.33 6.24 7.06 6.72 7.51 8.33 9.09 10.29 10.83
Texas 8.51 9.83 10.18 9.36 8.73 8.61 9.04 8.67 9.08 8.78
TCU 9.99 9.87 10.00 9.68 9.46 10.05 9.32 9.70 8.97 8.23
Oklahoma 10.61 10.41 10.34 10.10 10.44 9.05 8.55 9.18 8.34 7.60
West Virginia 6.29 6.10 5.92 5.55 4.55 4.07 4.96 4.02 3.82 4.58
Oklahoma State 5.22 4.82 4.72 5.34 6.30 5.60 5.45 4.85 5.05 4.53
Rd 10 Rd 11 Rd 12 Rd 13
Pred Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Conf
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Record Next Game Prediction
---- -------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ --------- -----------
# 27 Kansas State 11.59 12.27 12.96 12.42 9 3 @WVU (Mo) KSU by 4.1
# 9 Texas Tech 11.00 11.65 12.02 12.29 9 4 bye ( )
# 11 Kansas 11.67 11.61 12.12 12.24 9 4 bye ( )
# 14 Iowa State 12.11 11.21 11.21 11.79 8 4 BU (Tu) ISU by 8.0
# 39 Baylor 10.32 9.75 10.15 9.83 7 5 @ISU (Tu)
# 28 Texas 9.28 9.81 9.06 9.27 7 6 bye ( )
# 33 TCU 8.38 9.21 8.74 8.02 5 7 @OSU (Mo) TCU by 2.6
# 29 Oklahoma 6.98 6.38 5.95 6.57 4 9 bye ( )
# 84 West Virginia 4.34 3.86 3.88 3.79 2 10 KSU (MO)
# 76 Oklahoma State 4.33 4.25 3.91 3.78 2 10 TCU (Mo)
Whitlock took honors for best prognostications in Round 13, with honorable mention to yours truly.
Greenfield retains the season lead.
Predictions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
KU over WVU 13.2 16.0 15.2 14.0 12.0 14.0 15.4 27.0 18.2 17.8 11.0 18.0 15.9 18.2 16.3
UT over OSU 9.7 10.0 10.6 11.0 13.5 11.0 11.3 14.1 12.2 13.9 10.0 17.0 11.1 13.5 12.4
TTU over BU 8.3 8.0 7.7 7.0 1.5 7.5 7.0 9.9 9.4 9.1 4.0 13.0 9.1 11.4 3.8
TCU over OU 2.9 4.0 4.0 5.5 7.5 5.5 4.0 6.1 3.9 6.1 8.0 9.0 3.5 5.8 7.6
KSU over ISU 0.9 2.0 0.6 2.5 1.0 3.0 0.2 5.4 0.2 -0.3 1.0 12.0 -1.6 0.7 1.8
Reality Error
------- --1-----------1-----1-----2-----1-----------1-----1-----1-----------1-----------1-----2-
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
25 11.8 9.0 9.8 11.0 13.0 11.0 9.6 2.0 6.8 7.2 14.0 7.0 9.1 6.8 8.7
12 2.3 2.0 1.4 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.7 2.1 0.2 1.9 2.0 5.0 0.9 1.5 0.4
25 16.7 17.0 17.3 18.0 23.5 17.5 18.0 15.1 15.6 15.9 21.0 12.0 15.9 13.6 21.2
-9 11.9 13.0 13.0 14.5 16.5 14.5 13.0 15.1 12.9 15.1 17.0 18.0 12.5 14.8 16.6
-14 14.9 16.0 14.6 16.5 15.0 17.0 14.2 19.4 14.2 13.7 15.0 26.0 12.4 14.7 15.8
total 57.6 57.0 56.1 61.0 69.5 61.0 55.5 53.7 49.7 53.8 69.0 68.0 50.8 51.4 62.7
previous 524.2 552.0 516.9 506.0 545.5 509.0 534.5 699.0 577.8 526.3 586.0 613.0 558.3 582.8 575.7
cumulative 581.8 609.0 573.0 567.0 615.0 570.0 590.0 752.7 627.5 580.1 655.0 681.0 609.1 634.2 638.4
per game 9.4 9.8 9.2 9.1 9.9 9.2 9.5 12.1 10.1 9.4 10.6 11.0 9.8 10.2 10.3
No road wins were projected for Round 13, but two actually happened. TCU had managed
to avoid losing a conference game at home until Kansas came to town for Big Monday,
and that has apparently snowballed into consecutive home losses, this one unexpectedly
to Oklahoma. The other road win was the one we were looking for, with Iowa State
atoning for their unexpected home loss to TCU. So we remain three road wins ahead of
the long-term one-in-three average. Only three games in Round 14, as the last of the
byes occur, but two of them are projected to be road wins, with Kansas State favored
in Morgantown and TCU favored in Stillwater, though both are projected to be one
possession games.
Road wins (24 out of 62) Home losses Differential (RW-HL)
---------------------------------------- ------------------------------------ --------------------
5 Kansas State ISU OU OSU BU UT 0 Kansas +3 Kansas State
4 Iowa State OSU TTU OU KSU 1 Texas Tech ISU +3 Texas Tech
4 Texas Tech WVU UT OU OSU 2 Baylor KU KSU +2 Iowa State
3 Baylor OSU WVU OU 2 Iowa State KSU TCU +2 Kansas
2 Kansas BU TCU 2 Kansas State UT ISU +1 Baylor
2 Oklahoma OSU TCU 2 TCU KU OU 0 Texas
2 Texas KSU WVU 2 Texas TTU KSU -1 TCU
1 Oklahoma State WVU 4 Oklahoma KSU BU ISU TTU -2 Oklahoma
1 TCU ISU 4 West Virginia TTU OSU BU UT -4 Oklahoma State
0 West Virginia 5 Oklahoma State ISU BU OU KSU TTU -4 West Virginia
Performance (points) Inconsistency (points)
--------------------- ----------------------
Iowa State +1.66 Kansas 8.12
Texas Tech +1.47 West Virginia 10.13
Baylor +0.33 Iowa State 10.26
Texas +0.25 Oklahoma State 10.41
TCU +0.21 Texas Tech 10.71
Oklahoma -0.19 Texas 11.35
Kansas -0.27 Kansas State 11.40
Oklahoma State -0.98 Oklahoma 11.41
Kansas State -1.29 TCU 11.65
West Virginia -2.82 Baylor 13.72
Trend (points per game) Mental toughness
------------------------------ ------------------------------
Baylor +0.66 +/- 0.36 Kansas State +0.49 +/- 0.22
Kansas State +0.47 +/- 0.31 Baylor +0.36 +/- 0.25
Texas +0.26 +/- 0.30 Texas +0.36 +/- 0.25
Iowa State +0.22 +/- 0.29 Oklahoma State +0.10 +/- 0.25
Texas Tech +0.18 +/- 0.28 Texas Tech +0.01 +/- 0.20
Kansas -0.08 +/- 0.22 Iowa State -0.05 +/- 0.20
TCU -0.14 +/- 0.33 TCU -0.10 +/- 0.26
Oklahoma State -0.34 +/- 0.29 Kansas -0.11 +/- 0.21
Oklahoma -0.37 +/- 0.29 West Virginia -0.35 +/- 0.21
West Virginia -0.47 +/- 0.27 Oklahoma -0.57 +/- 0.37
Average offense (pts) Average defense (pts) Total Points Scoring Margin (pts)
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
Iowa State 78.52 Texas Tech 57.77 West Virginia 146.84 Texas Tech +13.12
Kansas 76.38 Kansas State 60.52 Kansas 146.77 Iowa State +11.44
TCU 75.12 Baylor 65.72 Iowa State 145.60 Kansas +6.00
Baylor 71.20 Texas 66.85 TCU 144.96 Baylor +5.48
Oklahoma 71.00 Iowa State 67.08 Oklahoma State 138.68 TCU +5.28
Texas 70.92 Oklahoma 67.46 Oklahoma 138.46 Kansas State +5.00
West Virginia 70.92 TCU 69.84 Texas 137.77 Texas +4.08
Texas Tech 70.88 Kansas 70.38 Baylor 136.92 Oklahoma +3.54
Oklahoma State 67.56 Oklahoma State 71.12 Texas Tech 128.65 Oklahoma State -3.56
Kansas State 65.52 West Virginia 75.92 Kansas State 126.04 West Virginia -5.00
Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Kansas 82.94 ( 1)
Oklahoma State 82.13 ( 3)
Oklahoma 81.73 ( 5)
Texas 80.84 (12)
West Virginia 80.22 (17)
Kansas State 79.74 (21)
Iowa State 79.16 (28)
Baylor 78.90 (32)
TCU 78.81 (38)
Texas Tech 78.58 (42)
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