predictions for West Virginia game

So, we have the conference team with one of the highest Sagarin ratings
at home against the conference team with one of the lowest Sagarin ratings,
making for one of the most lopsided predictions of any conference game,
and it's only 13.2 points, showing just how balanced the league is from
top to bottom.

West Virginia is like Kansas in that the current team looks nothing like
the team that was envisioned at the beginning of the season.  While the
Jayhawks are without Azubuike, De Sousa, Garrett, and Vick, West Virginia
is without Ahmad, Harris, Bolden, and Konate.  Kansas would seem to have
the better supporting cast, plus the home advantage, so the margin could
be wider than expected.  Then again, West Virginia shocked Kansas in
Morgantown, though it took a performance 8.36 points below expectation for
Kansas to lose that game.  To lose today, it would take a performance as
bad as the one in Ames, or in the case of West Virginia, one as good as
the one against Youngstown State.

Both teams have negative trends, and while West Virginia's is statistically
significant, the value for Kansas is borderline.  West Virginia's mental
toughness rating is statistically negative, while the value for Kansas is
slightly negative but not significant.  Taken at face value, we're looking
at a 16.3 point margin.

Not sure how much weight to give to the Seven Overtimes prediction.
Although the raankings page appears to be correct, the predictions
page has Kansas with a 31-8 record and ranked #58, lower than #46 West
Virginia, who supposedly has a 26-11 record.  To err is human; to really
screw up takes a computer.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     WVU     KU       Defensive Stats       WVU     KU
Points/Game         72.2    76.9     Opp Points/Game       75.3    70.5
Avg Score Margin    -3.2    +6.4     Opp Effective FG %   50.6%   47.3%
Assist/Game         12.8    13.6     Off Rebounds/Gm       12.0     9.1
Total Rebouds/Gm    39.2    38.0     Def Rebounds/Gm       23.3    26.1
Effective FG %      47.6    53.3     Blocks/Game            3.9     3.7
Off Rebound %       35.0    27.9     Steals/Game            6.0     7.1
FTA/FGA            0.439   0.335     Personal Fouls/Gm     21.0    17.5
Turnover %         18.6%   16.1%

Common Opponents
================
There are eight common opponents, all in conference, two of which Kansas has
already played twice (TCU, Iowa State), one of which West Virginia has already
played twice (Texas Tech), and one of which both have played twice (Texas), in
which case I will use only the home-home and road-road permutations, plus the
head-to-head in Morgantown, giving us thirteen scores to compare:

KU  +16 TTU at home (+12 neutral court)     KU  +16 TTU at home (+12 neutral court)
WVU  -3 TTU at home ( -7 neutral court)     WVU -31 TTU on road (-27 neutral court)
KU  +23 WVU at home (+19 neutral court)     KU  +43 WVU at home (+39 neutral court)

KU  -10 UT  on road ( -6 neutral court)     KU   +2 UT  at home ( -2 neutral court)
WVU  -7 UT  on road ( -3 neutral court)     WVU -22 UT  at home (-26 neutral court)
KU   +1 WVU at home ( -3 neutral court)     KU  +28 WVU at home (+24 neutral court)

KU   -7 KSU on road ( -3 neutral court)
WVU  -2 KSU on road ( +2 neutral court)
KU   -1 WVU at home ( -5 neutral court)

KU  +12 OSU at home ( +8 neutral court)
WVU  -8 OSU at home (-12 neutral court)
KU  +24 WVU at home (+20 neutral court)

KU   +5 TCU on road ( +9 neutral court)     KU   +9 TCU at home ( +5 neutral court)
WVU -31 TCU on road (-27 neutral court)     WVU -31 TCU on road (-27 neutral court)
KU  +40 WVU at home (+36 neutral court)     KU  +36 WVU at home (+32 neutral court)

KU   +5 BU  on road ( +9 neutral court)
WVU -12 BU  at home (-16 neutral court)
KU  +29 WVU at home (+25 neutral court)

KU  -17 ISU on road (-13 neutral court)     KU   +4 ISU at home (  0 neutral court)
WVU -25 ISU on road (-21 neutral court)     WVU -25 ISU on road (-21 neutral court)
KU  +12 WVU at home ( +8 neutral court)     KU  +25 WVU at home (+21 neutral court)

KU   +7 OU  at home ( +3 neutral court)
WVU  +8 OU  at home ( +4 neutral court)
KU   +3 WVU at home ( -1 neutral court)

KU   -1 WVU on road ( +3 neutral court)
KU   +7 WVU at home ( +3 neutral court)

Twelve of the comparisons favor Kansas, some by large margins, while one favors
West Virginia by a solitary point.  The average is 20.8 points in favor of Kansas.

Players to Watch (or not, as the case may be)
=============================================
most minutes       Esa Ahmad (forward)
most points        Sagaba Konate (forward)
most rebounds      Derek Culver (forward)
most assists       James Bolden (guard)
most steals        James Bolden (guard)
most blocks        Sagaba Konate (forward)
most turnovers     Esa Ahmad (forward)
most fouls         Sagaba Konate (forward)

Forward Sagaba Konate has been out with a right knee injury and could miss the
rest of the season.  Guard James Bolden has missed the last four games with an
ankle injury, but his status for today's game has not been stated.  Forward
Esa Ahmad and forward Wesley Harris have been dropped from the team for a
violation of rules.  It's entirely possible that the only "player to watch"
that will actually play is Derek Culver.

                                                          19-6            10-14
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       West Virginia
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall        +13.75   81   67                #  9   #  1     # 75   # 19 
Sagarin Predictor      +13.18   80   67       92.6     # 11   #  1     # 72   # 19 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +14.27   81   67                #  9   #  1     # 71   # 19 
Sagarin Recent Games   +15.27   81   66                # 10   #  1     #103   # 19
Sagarin Eigenvector    +21.95   85   63       94       
Massey                 +16.00   84   68       93       # 12   #  1     #112   # 42
Pomeroy                +15.17   81   66                # 16   #  1     #119   # 21
Greenfield             +14.00   80   66                # 14   #  4     # 89   # 46
Dunkel                 +12.00   80   68                #  5            # 28       
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +14.00   80   66                                           
Dolphin Predictive     +15.42   84   68       90.4     # 18   #  7     #120   # 51
Real Time              +18.00   85   67       86.6     #  6   #  1     #138   #  8 
Seven Overtimes        +11.00   79   68       85       #  6   #  1     # 90   # 28
DPPI                   +16.60   80   64       97.2     # 12   #  1     #138   # 18 
ESPN BPI               +17.80                 93.1     # 18   #  1     #101   # 24
Whitlock               +18.22                          # 11   #  1     #113   # 15
Colley Matrix          +26.99                          #  6   #  1     #118   #  6
NCAA NET                                               # 18            #115
common opponents       +20.77                                                                
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                +16.4    81.5 66.5
scatter                  3.9     2.1  1.5

Here is Kansas' season; the season record projection remains at 23-8, with
a projected loss at Texas Tech:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  4 Michigan State              92  87    -4.37    +9.37
HOME   # 80 Vermont                     84  68   +13.38    +2.62
HOME   #181 Louisiana                   89  76   +21.52    -8.52
NEUT   # 19 Marquette                   77  68    +2.27    +6.73
NEUT   #  7 Tennessee                   87  81    -1.68    +7.68
HOME   #108 Stanford                    90  84   +15.60    -9.60
HOME   # 52 Wofford                     72  47   +10.68   +14.32
HOME   # 60 New Mexico State            63  60   +11.64    -8.64
HOME   # 16 Villanova                   74  71    +4.01    -1.01
HOME   #229 South Dakota                89  53   +24.78   +11.22
AWAY   # 46 Arizona State               76  80    +3.93    -7.93
HOME   #157 Eastern Michigan            87  63   +19.98    +4.02
HOME   # 30 Oklahoma                    70  63    +6.88    +0.12
AWAY   # 17 Iowa State                  60  77    -2.08   -14.92
HOME   # 31 TCU                         77  68    +7.12    +1.88
AWAY   # 37 Baylor                      73  68    +1.98    +3.02
HOME   # 28 Texas                       80  78    +6.70    -4.70
AWAY   # 72 West Virginia               64  65    +7.01    -8.01
HOME   # 17 Iowa State                  80  76    +4.10    -0.10
AWAY   #  6 Kentucky                    63  71    -4.94    -3.06
AWAY   # 28 Texas                       63  73    +0.52   -10.52
HOME   # 10 Texas Tech                  79  63    +2.99   +13.01
AWAY   # 25 Kansas State                67  74    +0.12    -7.12
HOME   # 76 Oklahoma State              84  72   +13.32    -1.32
AWAY   # 31 TCU                         82  77    +0.94    +4.06
HOME   # 72 West Virginia                        +13.19             0.926
AWAY   # 10 Texas Tech                            -3.19             0.367
HOME   # 25 Kansas State                          +6.30             0.740
AWAY   # 76 Oklahoma State                        +7.14             0.776
AWAY   # 30 Oklahoma                              +0.70             0.528
HOME   # 37 Baylor                                +8.16             0.769

Here is West Virginia's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   # 39 Buffalo                     94  99    -1.72    -3.28
NEUT   #274 Monmouth-NJ                 71  53   +13.88    +4.12
NEUT   #116 Western Kentucky            57  63    +3.04    -9.04
NEUT   #158 Saint Joseph's-Pa.          97  90    +6.79    +0.21
HOME   #191 Valparaiso                  88  76   +12.16    -0.16
HOME   #198 Rider                       92  78   +12.66    +1.34
HOME   #286 Youngstown State           106  72   +17.55   +16.45
NEUT   # 35 Florida                     56  66    -5.58    -4.42
HOME   # 92 Pittsburgh                  69  59    +4.03    +5.97
NEUT   #119 Rhode Island                70  83    +3.54   -16.54
HOME   #133 Jacksonville State          74  72    +7.91    -5.91
HOME   #150 Lehigh                      78  68    +9.19    +0.81
HOME   # 10 Texas Tech                  59  62    -7.11    +4.11
AWAY   # 28 Texas                       54  61    -9.58    +2.58
AWAY   # 25 Kansas State                69  71    -9.98    +7.98
HOME   # 76 Oklahoma State              77  85    +3.22   -11.22
AWAY   # 31 TCU                         67  98    -9.16   -21.84
HOME   # 11 Kansas                      65  64    -7.01    +8.01
HOME   # 37 Baylor                      73  85    -1.94   -10.06
AWAY   #  7 Tennessee                   66  83   -14.87    -2.13
AWAY   # 17 Iowa State                  68  93   -12.18   -12.82
HOME   # 30 Oklahoma                    79  71    -3.22   +11.22
AWAY   # 10 Texas Tech                  50  81   -13.29   -17.71
HOME   # 28 Texas                       53  75    -3.40   -18.60
AWAY   # 11 Kansas                               -13.19             0.074
HOME   # 25 Kansas State                          -3.80             0.362
AWAY   # 37 Baylor                                -8.12             0.248
HOME   # 31 TCU                                   -2.98             0.392
AWAY   # 30 Oklahoma                              -9.40             0.191
HOME   # 17 Iowa State                            -6.00             0.276
AWAY   # 76 Oklahoma State                        -2.96             0.388