Big 12 projection, Round 12

The Kansas road win over TCU is somewhat more impressive than the Texas Tech road win
over Oklahoma State, despite the respective margins, so Kansas swapped its third place
for Tech's second place.  The Texas home loss to Kansas State dropped the Longhorns
below the Bears, who won at home over Oklahoma.  No other changes in the projected
standings.

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2  Rnd 3  Rnd 4  Rnd 5  Rnd 6  Rnd 7  Rnd 8  Rnd 9
                      Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.
      Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins 
      --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
      Kansas State     7.81   6.43   6.43   6.63   7.59   8.85   9.59  10.43  10.21  10.87
      Kansas          12.80  13.08  12.07  12.50  12.87  13.01  12.20  12.60  11.89  12.31
      Texas Tech      11.96  12.28  12.35  12.71  13.27  12.28  11.39  10.65  11.08  10.71
      Iowa State      10.49  10.85  11.75  11.07  10.07  10.97  11.17  10.81  11.27  11.56
      Baylor           6.32   6.33   6.24   7.06   6.72   7.51   8.33   9.09  10.29  10.83
      Texas            8.51   9.83  10.18   9.36   8.73   8.61   9.04   8.67   9.08   8.78
      TCU              9.99   9.87  10.00   9.68   9.46  10.05   9.32   9.70   8.97   8.23
      Oklahoma        10.61  10.41  10.34  10.10  10.44   9.05   8.55   9.18   8.34   7.60
      Oklahoma State   5.22   4.82   4.72   5.34   6.30   5.60   5.45   4.85   5.05   4.53
      West Virginia    6.29   6.10   5.92   5.55   4.55   4.07   4.96   4.02   3.82   4.58

                      Rd 10  Rd 11  Rd 12
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
# 25  Kansas State    11.59  12.27  12.96    9  2   ISU (Sa)   KSU by  0.8
# 11  Kansas          11.67  11.61  12.12    8  4   WVU (Sa)   KU  by 13.5
# 10  Texas Tech      11.00  11.65  12.02    8  4   BU  (Sa)   TTU by  8.6
# 16  Iowa State      12.11  11.21  11.21    7  4  @KSU (Sa)   
# 37  Baylor          10.32   9.75  10.15    7  4  @TTU (Sa)   
# 28  Texas            9.28   9.81   9.06    6  6   OSU (Sa)   UT  by 10.0
# 31  TCU              8.38   9.21   8.74    5  6   OU  (Sa)   TCU by  2.8
# 30  Oklahoma         6.98   6.38   5.95    3  9  @TCU (Sa)   
# 77  Oklahoma State   4.33   4.25   3.91    2  9  @UT  (Sa)   
# 75  West Virginia    4.34   3.86   3.88    2  9  @KU  (Sa)   

Colley took honors for best prognostications in Round 12.  Greenfield retains the season lead.

Predictions                                                                                           
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
TTU over OSU   6.5   7.0   6.7   6.0   4.0   7.0   7.0  14.2   9.4   8.7   9.0   6.0   7.8   5.5   7.8
UT  over KSU   3.7   3.0   4.2   2.5   5.5   3.0   4.2  -4.5   3.3   5.4  -1.0   5.0   5.1   7.4   2.6
BU  over OU    2.0   3.0   4.1   4.5   7.5   4.0   4.8  -0.7   2.2   6.4   5.0   9.0   2.3   4.6  12.2
KU  over TCU   0.7  -1.0   0.4  -2.0   2.0  -3.0  -0.3   4.1   1.1   0.3   1.0  -6.0   0.2  -2.2  -1.4

     Reality  Error                                                                                  
     -------  --1-----------1-----1-----2-----1-----------1-----------1-----------1-----------1-----2-
              Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
        28    21.5  21.0  21.3  22.0  24.0  21.0  21.0  13.8  18.6  19.3  19.0  22.0  20.2  22.5  20.2
        -7    10.7  10.0  11.2   9.5  12.5  10.0  11.2   2.5  10.3  12.4   6.0  12.0  12.1  14.4   9.6
         6     4.0   3.0   1.9   1.5   1.5   2.0   1.2   6.7   3.8   0.4   1.0   3.0   3.7   1.4   6.2
         5     4.3   6.0   4.6   7.0   3.0   8.0   5.3   0.9   3.9   4.7   4.0  11.0   4.8   7.2   6.4

total         40.5  40.0  39.0  40.0  41.0  41.0  38.7  23.9  36.6  36.8  30.0  48.0  40.8  45.5  42.4
previous     483.7 512.0 477.9 466.0 504.5 468.0 495.8 675.1 541.2 489.5 556.0 565.0 517.5 537.3 533.3
cumulative   524.2 552.0 516.9 506.0 545.5 509.0 534.5 699.0 577.8 526.3 586.0 613.0 558.3 582.8 575.7
per game       9.2   9.7   9.1   8.9   9.6   8.9   9.4  12.3  10.1   9.2  10.3  10.8   9.8  10.2  10.1

Two road wins were projected for Round 12, but three actually happened, with Texas
failing to live up to its billing.  So we're three road wins ahead of the long-term
one-in-three average.  However, no road wins are projected for Round 13, though
Iowa State at Kansas State is effectively a toss-up game.

Road wins (22 out of 57)                   Home losses                            Differential (RW-HL)
----------------------------------------   ------------------------------------   --------------------
5 Kansas State   ISU OU  OSU BU  UT        0 Kansas                               +4 Kansas State  
4 Texas Tech     WVU UT  OU  OSU           1 Kansas State   UT                    +3 Texas Tech    
3 Baylor         OSU WVU OU                1 TCU            KU                    +2 Kansas        
3 Iowa State     OSU TTU OU                1 Texas Tech     ISU                   +1 Baylor        
2 Kansas         BU  TCU                   2 Baylor         KU  KSU               +1 Iowa State    
2 Texas          KSU WVU                   2 Iowa State     KSU TCU                0 TCU           
1 Oklahoma       OSU                       2 Texas          TTU KSU                0 Texas         
1 Oklahoma State WVU                       4 Oklahoma       KSU BU  ISU TTU       -3 Oklahoma      
1 TCU            ISU                       4 West Virginia  TTU OSU BU  UT        -4 Oklahoma State
0 West Virginia                            5 Oklahoma State ISU BU  OU  KSU TTU   -4 West Virginia 

Performance (points)    Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------   ----------------------    
Iowa State      +1.32   Kansas            8.07    
Texas Tech      +0.96   Iowa State       10.01    
Baylor          +0.50   West Virginia    10.05    
Texas           +0.38   Texas Tech       10.58    
TCU             +0.17   Oklahoma State   10.69    
Kansas          -0.37   Oklahoma         11.30    
Oklahoma        -0.46   Kansas State     11.41    
Oklahoma State  -0.77   TCU              11.50    
Kansas State    -1.01   Texas            11.59    
West Virginia   -2.78   Baylor           13.61    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Baylor          +0.94 +/- 0.36    Kansas State    +0.55 +/- 0.21
Kansas State    +0.67 +/- 0.31    Baylor          +0.49 +/- 0.24
Texas           +0.26 +/- 0.32    Texas           +0.36 +/- 0.26
Iowa State      +0.12 +/- 0.30    Oklahoma State  +0.12 +/- 0.26
Texas Tech      +0.10 +/- 0.30    Texas Tech      -0.01 +/- 0.16
TCU             -0.06 +/- 0.35    Kansas          -0.02 +/- 0.21
Kansas          -0.20 +/- 0.22    Iowa State      -0.05 +/- 0.20
Oklahoma State  -0.37 +/- 0.31    TCU             -0.11 +/- 0.26
West Virginia   -0.43 +/- 0.29    West Virginia   -0.32 +/- 0.21
Oklahoma        -0.52 +/- 0.30    Oklahoma        -0.72 +/- 0.36

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
Iowa State      78.46   Texas Tech      57.56   West Virginia   147.50   Texas Tech      +12.80   
Kansas          76.40   Kansas State    59.71   Kansas          147.40   Iowa State      +11.17   
TCU             75.75   Baylor          64.96   Iowa State      145.75   Baylor           +6.58   
West Virginia   71.58   Texas           67.16   TCU             145.46   TCU              +6.04   
Baylor          71.54   Iowa State      67.29   Oklahoma State  139.21   Kansas State     +5.96   
Texas           71.08   Oklahoma        67.76   Oklahoma        138.68   Kansas           +5.40   
Oklahoma        70.92   TCU             69.71   Texas           138.24   Texas            +3.92   
Texas Tech      70.36   Kansas          71.00   Baylor          136.50   Oklahoma         +3.16   
Oklahoma State  67.92   Oklahoma State  71.29   Texas Tech      127.92   Oklahoma State   -3.38   
Kansas State    65.67   West Virginia   75.92   Kansas State    125.38   West Virginia    -4.33   

Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Kansas          83.24 ( 1)
Oklahoma State  81.67 ( 4)
Oklahoma        81.43 ( 7)
Texas           81.31 ( 8)
West Virginia   79.53 (20)
Kansas State    79.38 (21)
Iowa State      78.67 (32)
TCU             78.61 (35)
Texas Tech      78.41 (38)
Baylor          78.40 (40)