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predictions for TCU game

  • asteroid
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4 months 4 days ago #21169 by asteroid
Let's say you believe that the conference crown can be shared with a 12-6
record.  That's not an unreasonable assumption.  Furthermore, let's say you
believe that Kansas can defend its home court, meaning a 9-0 home record.
Again, that is not an unreasonable assumption.  That means the Jayhawks need
three road wins.  One is already in the bag, so two more are necessary.  The
consecutive road games with Oklahoma State and Oklahoma near the end of the
regular season are probably the best bets, though one would sure like to have
an insurance road win (just in case it takes a 13-5 record to share a crown),
and even though Kansas handled Texas Tech rather easily in Lawrence, a road
win in Lubbock seems more difficult to pull off than one in Fort Worth, so
there you have the importance of today's road game.  Yes, the latest Sagarin
ratings suggest that a road win in Fort Worth is 0.2 points harder than a road
win in Norman, but Oklahoma has been trending downward, while TCU is coming
off an impressive road win in Ames.  Adding to the difficulty is the fact that
TCU has not lost a conference home game this season (though they did lose to
Lipscomb in the non-conference part of the season).

Not unexpectedly, the various prognosticators are divided over the outcome of
today's game.  Most pessimistic is Sagarin's "Recent Games" prediction, which
roughly matches Real Time in expecting a 6 point Kansas loss (recall that Real
Time tends to use a larger home court advantage).  Most optimistic is Sagarin's
eigenvector analysis, which calls for a 5 point Kansas win.  TCU actually has
a 3 point advantage among common opponents, which is a bit of a surprise.  The
average basically calls for overtime.

Kansas has averaged 0.24 points below expectation, while TCU has averaged 0.32
points above expectation.  Kansas is 3.6 points more consistent than TCU, but
a lot of good that does in a toss-up game.  The trend for Kansas is negative,
but the statistical significance is marginal.  TCU's trend is effectively flat.
Both mental toughness ratings are negative but not statistically significant.
Taken at face value, they would predict a 1 point TCU victory.

It's the inconsistency of TCU that makes this game so hard to pick.  In their
last four games, the Frogs played 12 points below expectation against Tech,
24 points below expectation against Baylor, 7 points below expectation against
Okie State, and just when you thought they weren't going to be a factor in the
Big 12 race, they turn around and play 15 points above expectation in Ames.
Which TCU team is going to show up today?

We pretty much know which Jayhawk team will show up today, due to the depleted
roster, but this particular combination of players has just one game under
their collective belts, so there's not much of a track record to go by.  One
can hope that we'll see the infamous "addition by subtraction", meaning that
if Vick's personal issues were getting into his head and affecting his play,
then the Jayhawks might be better without him.  Let's just hope the road
futility is NOT on their minds.  Play like they did in the second half on
Saturday, and a positive outcome should be in the cards.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Among Greenfield's eight offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in just
three of them, namely points per game, total rebounds per game, and effective
field goal percentage.  Among the seven defensive stats, Kansas has the
advantage in just three of them, namely steals pre game, defensive rebounds
per game, and holding opponents to a lower effective field goal percentage.

Common Opponents
================
There are nine common opponents, eight in conference plus Eastern Michigan, two of
which Kansas has already played twice (Texas, Iowa State), one of which TCU has
already played twice (Baylor), plus the head-to-head in Lawrence, giving us
thirteen scores to compare:

KU  +24 EMU at home (+20 neutral court)
TCU +18 EMU at home (+14 neutral court)
KU   +2 TCU on road ( +6 neutral court)

KU   +5 BU  on road ( +9 neutral court)     KU   +5 BU  on road ( +9 neutral court)
TCU  +4 BU  at home (  0 neutral court)     TCU -26 BU  on road (-22 neutral court)
KU   +5 TCU on road ( +9 neutral court)     KU  +27 TCU on road (+31 neutral court)

KU   +7 OU  at home ( +3 neutral court)
TCU  -2 OU  on road ( +2 neutral court)
KU   -3 TCU on road ( +1 neutral court)

KU   -1 WVU on road ( +3 neutral court)
TCU +31 WVU at home (+27 neutral court)
KU  -28 TCU on road (-24 neutral court)

KU   -7 KSU on road ( -3 neutral court)
TCU -10 KSU on road ( -6 neutral court)
KU   -1 TCU on road ( +3 neutral court)

KU   +2 UT  at home ( -2 neutral court)     KU  -10 UT  on road ( -6 neutral court)
TCU  +4 UT  at home (  0 neutral court)     TCU  +4 UT  at home (  0 neutral court)
KU   -6 TCU on road ( -2 neutral court)     KU  -10 TCU on road ( -6 neutral court)

KU  +16 TTU at home (+12 neutral court)
TCU -19 TTU on road (-15 neutral court)
KU  +23 TCU on road (+27 neutral court)

KU  +12 OSU at home ( +8 neutral court)
TCU  +2 OSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
KU   +6 TCU on road (+10 neutral court)

KU   +4 ISU at home (  0 neutral court)     KU  -17 ISU on road (-13 neutral court)
TCU  +9 ISU on road (+13 neutral court)     TCU  +9 ISU on road (+13 neutral court)
KU  -17 TCU on road (-13 neutral court)     KU  -30 TCU on road (-26 neutral court)

KU   +9 TCU at home ( +5 neutral court)
KU   +1 TCU on road ( +5 neutral court)

Six of the comparisons favor Kansas, particularly Baylor and Texas Tech, while seven
favor TCU, particularly West Virginia and Iowa State.  The average is 2.82 points in
favor of TCU.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Desmond Bane (guard)
most points        Desmond Bane (guard)
most rebounds      Kevin Samuel (center)
most assists       Alex Robinson (guard)
most steals        Alex Robinson (guard)
most blocks        Kevin Samuel (center)
most turnovers     Alex Robinson (guard)
most fouls         Yuat Alok (forward)

                                                          18-6            17-6
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas           TCU
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall         +0.34   74   74                # 10   #  1     # 28   # 37 
Sagarin Predictor       +0.72   74   73      52.9      # 13   #  1     # 30   # 37 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +1.01   74   73                # 10   #  1     # 27   # 37 
Sagarin Recent Games    -6.31   71   77                # 33   #  1     # 19   # 37
Sagarin Eigenvector     +5.12   76   71      69        
Massey                  -1.00   74   75      50        # 13   #  1     # 27   # 35
Pomeroy                 +0.37   73   73                # 16   #  1     # 35   # 33
Greenfield              -2.00   74   76                # 14   #  3     # 37   # 38
Dunkel                  +2.00   77.5 75.5              #  5            # 44       
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -3.00   73   76                                           
Dolphin Predictive      -0.25   75   75      49.2      # 18   #  6     # 35   # 34
Real Time               -6.00   72   78      34.5      #  8   #  1     # 25   # 29 
Seven Overtimes         +1.00   73   72      58        #  6   #  1     # 29   # 36
DPPI                    +2.20   73.5 71      60.8      # 15   #  1     # 38   # 25 
ESPN BPI                +0.30                51.0      # 18   #  1     # 38   # 46
Whitlock                +1.06                          # 10   #  1     # 30   # 35
Colley Matrix           +4.08                          #  6   #  1     # 22   # 24
NCAA NET                                               # 18            # 32
common opponents        -2.82                                                                
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                 -0.2    73.9 74.3
scatter                  3.0     1.6  2.2

Here is Kansas' season; the season record projection remains at 23-8, with
a projected loss at Texas Tech:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  4 Michigan State              92  87    -5.02   +10.02
HOME   # 77 Vermont                     84  68   +13.38    +2.62
HOME   #184 Louisiana                   89  76   +22.02    -9.02
NEUT   # 20 Marquette                   77  68    +2.25    +6.75
NEUT   #  7 Tennessee                   87  81    -2.79    +8.79
HOME   #109 Stanford                    90  84   +15.63    -9.63
HOME   # 50 Wofford                     72  47   +10.33   +14.67
HOME   # 60 New Mexico State            63  60   +11.87    -8.87
HOME   # 16 Villanova                   74  71    +3.56    -0.56
HOME   #234 South Dakota                89  53   +25.35   +10.65
AWAY   # 48 Arizona State               76  80    +3.85    -7.85
HOME   #158 Eastern Michigan            87  63   +20.23    +3.77
HOME   # 29 Oklahoma                    70  63    +6.69    +0.31
AWAY   # 17 Iowa State                  60  77    -2.42   -14.58
HOME   # 30 TCU                         77  68    +6.90    +2.10
AWAY   # 37 Baylor                      73  68    +1.56    +3.44
HOME   # 23 Texas                       80  78    +5.79    -3.79
AWAY   # 76 West Virginia               64  65    +7.16    -8.16
HOME   # 17 Iowa State                  80  76    +3.76    +0.24
AWAY   #  6 Kentucky                    63  71    -5.96    -2.04
AWAY   # 23 Texas                       63  73    -0.39    -9.61
HOME   # 12 Texas Tech                  79  63    +3.08   +12.92
AWAY   # 26 Kansas State                67  74    +0.20    -7.20
HOME   # 68 Oklahoma State              84  72   +12.78    -0.78
AWAY   # 30 TCU                                   +0.72             0.529
HOME   # 76 West Virginia                        +13.34             0.928
AWAY   # 12 Texas Tech                            -3.10             0.367
HOME   # 26 Kansas State                          +6.38             0.741
AWAY   # 68 Oklahoma State                        +6.60             0.765
AWAY   # 29 Oklahoma                              +0.51             0.520
HOME   # 37 Baylor                                +7.74             0.752

Here is TCU's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #202 CS Bakersfield              66  61   +19.54   -14.54
HOME   #261 Oral Roberts                79  62   +23.06    -6.06
HOME   # 64 Fresno State                77  69    +8.18    -0.18
HOME   # 55 Lipscomb                    64  73    +7.62   -16.62
HOME   #158 Eastern Michigan            87  69   +16.42    +1.58
HOME   #149 Central Michigan            89  62   +15.48   +11.52
AWAY   # 94 SMU                         67  59    +4.58    +3.42
NEUT   # 84 Southern California         96  61    +6.77   +28.23
HOME   #178 Indiana State               90  70   +17.82    +2.18
NEUT   #293 Charlotte                   82  57   +21.68    +3.32
NEUT   #146 Bucknell                    82  65   +12.19    +4.81
NEUT   #178 Indiana State               83  69   +14.73    -0.73
Div2        Hawaii Pacific             canceled
HOME   # 37 Baylor                      85  81    +3.93    +0.07
AWAY   # 13 Kansas                      68  77    -6.90    -2.10
AWAY   # 29 Oklahoma                    74  76    -3.30    +1.30
HOME   # 76 West Virginia               98  67    +9.53   +21.47
AWAY   # 26 Kansas State                55  65    -3.61    -6.39
HOME   # 23 Texas                       65  61    +1.98    +2.02
HOME   # 34 Florida                     55  50    +3.45    +1.55
AWAY   # 12 Texas Tech                  65  84    -6.91   -12.09
AWAY   # 37 Baylor                      64  90    -2.25   -23.75
HOME   # 68 Oklahoma State              70  68    +8.97    -6.97
AWAY   # 17 Iowa State                  92  83    -6.23   +15.23
HOME   # 13 Kansas                                -0.72             0.471
HOME   # 29 Oklahoma                              +2.88             0.598
AWAY   # 68 Oklahoma State                        +2.79             0.601
HOME   # 17 Iowa State                            -0.05             0.498
AWAY   # 76 West Virginia                         +3.35             0.621
HOME   # 12 Texas Tech                            -0.73             0.473
HOME   # 26 Kansas State                          +2.57             0.588
AWAY   # 23 Texas                                 -4.20             0.359
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, gorillahawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, DocBlues

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