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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Big 12 projection, Round 11
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5 years 2 months ago #21151
by asteroid
Although both West Virginia and Oklahoma State lost, the Mountaineer loss came at
home while the Cowboy loss was on the road, so West Virginia drops into the cellar.
Kansas State beat a depleted Bear squad which slid below Texas in the projected
standings, while Iowa State suffered an unexpected home loss to TCU, which caused
the Wildcats to ascend into first place and the Cyclones to drop below both Kansas
and Texas Tech, who picked up a road win in Norman and in the process edged out
Kansas for second place. However, because the season cannot end with fractional
wins, one should think of the latest projection as representing a three-way tie at
12-6.
Init. Rnd 1 Rnd 2 Rnd 3 Rnd 4 Rnd 5 Rnd 6 Rnd 7 Rnd 8 Rnd 9
Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj.
Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins
-------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Kansas State 7.81 6.43 6.43 6.63 7.59 8.85 9.59 10.43 10.21 10.87
Texas Tech 11.96 12.28 12.35 12.71 13.27 12.28 11.39 10.65 11.08 10.71
Kansas 12.80 13.08 12.07 12.50 12.87 13.01 12.20 12.60 11.89 12.31
Iowa State 10.49 10.85 11.75 11.07 10.07 10.97 11.17 10.81 11.27 11.56
Texas 8.51 9.83 10.18 9.36 8.73 8.61 9.04 8.67 9.08 8.78
Baylor 6.32 6.33 6.24 7.06 6.72 7.51 8.33 9.09 10.29 10.83
TCU 9.99 9.87 10.00 9.68 9.46 10.05 9.32 9.70 8.97 8.23
Oklahoma 10.61 10.41 10.34 10.10 10.44 9.05 8.55 9.18 8.34 7.60
Oklahoma State 5.22 4.82 4.72 5.34 6.30 5.60 5.45 4.85 5.05 4.53
West Virginia 6.29 6.10 5.92 5.55 4.55 4.07 4.96 4.02 3.82 4.58
Rd 10 Rd 11
Pred Proj. Proj. Conf
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Record Next Game Prediction
---- -------------- ----- ----- ------ --------- -----------
# 28 Kansas State 11.59 12.27 8 2 @UT (Tu)
# 13 Texas Tech 11.00 11.65 7 4 @OSU (We) TTU by 6.5 RW
# 11 Kansas 11.67 11.61 7 4 @TCU (Mo) KU by 0.7 RW
# 17 Iowa State 12.11 11.21 7 4 bye ( )
# 23 Texas 9.28 9.81 6 5 KSU (Tu) UT by 3.7
# 38 Baylor 10.32 9.75 6 4 OU (Mo) BU by 2.0
# 32 TCU 8.38 9.21 5 5 KU (Mo)
# 30 Oklahoma 6.98 6.38 3 8 @BU (Mo)
# 67 Oklahoma State 4.33 4.25 2 8 TTU (We)
# 77 West Virginia 4.34 3.86 2 9 bye ( )
Dunkel took honors for best prognostications in Round 11. Greenfield retains the season lead.
Predictions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
KU over OSU 13.4 13.0 12.8 11.0 13.5 11.5 12.4 26.0 15.7 16.6 12.0 20.0 13.2 15.5 11.5
ISU over TCU 7.1 10.0 8.6 10.5 13.0 10.0 9.1 5.7 8.7 11.2 6.0 12.0 8.5 10.8 12.1
UT over WVU 3.2 4.0 4.9 4.0 10.0 3.5 5.7 4.7 6.7 2.0 4.0 -2.0 5.8 3.5 5.5
BU over KSU 2.2 2.0 4.0 3.0 -1.0 3.0 4.6 -1.7 2.6 5.0 -2.0 5.0 4.0 6.3 7.8
OU over TTU 0.5 2.0 -1.0 -1.0 -6.0 -1.0 -0.8 2.9 -0.3 -0.8 -1.0 6.0 -0.5 1.8 -1.7
Reality Error
------- --1-----------1-----1-----2-----1-----------------------1-----------1-----------1-----2-
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
12 1.4 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.5 0.5 0.4 14.0 3.7 4.6 0.0 8.0 1.2 3.5 0.5
-9 16.1 19.0 17.6 19.5 22.0 19.0 18.1 14.7 17.7 20.2 15.0 21.0 17.5 19.8 21.1
22 18.8 18.0 17.1 18.0 12.0 18.5 16.3 17.3 15.3 20.0 18.0 24.0 16.2 18.5 16.5
-7 9.2 9.0 11.0 10.0 6.0 10.0 11.6 5.3 9.6 12.0 5.0 12.0 11.0 13.3 14.8
-12 12.5 14.0 11.0 11.0 6.0 11.0 11.2 14.9 11.7 11.2 11.0 18.0 11.5 13.8 10.3
total 58.0 61.0 57.5 59.5 47.5 59.0 57.6 66.2 58.0 68.0 49.0 83.0 57.4 68.9 63.2
previous 425.7 451.0 420.4 406.5 457.0 409.0 438.2 608.9 483.2 421.5 507.0 482.0 460.1 468.4 470.1
cumulative 483.7 512.0 477.9 466.0 504.5 468.0 495.8 675.1 541.2 489.5 556.0 565.0 517.5 537.3 533.3
per game 9.1 9.7 9.0 8.8 9.5 8.8 9.4 12.7 10.2 9.2 10.5 10.7 9.8 10.1 10.1
Only one road win was projected for Round 11, but four occurred, so we're now one road win ahead
of the long-trem one-in-three average. Two road wins are projected for Round 12, but KU's game
in Fort Worth is effectively a toss-up.
Road wins (19 out of 53) Home losses Differential (RW-HL)
---------------------------------------- ------------------------------------ --------------------
4 Kansas State ISU OU OSU BU 0 Kansas +3 Kansas State
3 Baylor OSU WVU OU 0 TCU +2 Texas Tech
3 Iowa State OSU TTU OU 1 Kansas State UT +1 Baylor
3 Texas Tech WVU UT OU 1 Texas TTU +1 Iowa State
2 Texas KSU WVU 1 Texas Tech ISU +1 Kansas
1 Kansas BU 2 Baylor KU KSU +1 TCU
1 Oklahoma OSU 2 Iowa State KSU TCU +1 Texas
1 Oklahoma State WVU 4 Oklahoma KSU BU ISU TTU -3 Oklahoma
1 TCU ISU 4 Oklahoma State ISU BU OU KSU -3 Oklahoma State
0 West Virginia 4 West Virginia TTU OSU BU UT -4 West Virginia
Inconsistency for Iowa State jumped. Kansas State has taken over the top spot
in mental toughness.
Performance (points) Inconsistency (points)
--------------------- ----------------------
Iowa State +1.20 Kansas 8.12
Texas Tech +0.69 Iowa State 9.92
TCU +0.31 Texas Tech 9.99
Texas +0.13 Oklahoma State 10.08
Baylor +0.01 West Virginia 10.08
Kansas -0.23 Kansas State 11.39
Oklahoma -0.26 Oklahoma 11.51
Oklahoma State -0.53 Texas 11.58
Kansas State -1.29 TCU 11.73
West Virginia -2.62 Baylor 13.89
Trend (points per game) Mental toughness
------------------------------ ------------------------------
Baylor +1.04 +/- 0.38 Kansas State +0.52 +/- 0.22
Kansas State +0.64 +/- 0.34 Baylor +0.49 +/- 0.25
Texas +0.40 +/- 0.34 Texas +0.37 +/- 0.26
Iowa State +0.14 +/- 0.30 Oklahoma State +0.19 +/- 0.24
TCU 0.00 +/- 0.38 Texas Tech -0.02 +/- 0.15
Texas Tech -0.09 +/- 0.30 Iowa State -0.04 +/- 0.19
Oklahoma State -0.19 +/- 0.32 Kansas -0.04 +/- 0.21
Kansas -0.26 +/- 0.24 TCU -0.09 +/- 0.27
West Virginia -0.44 +/- 0.29 West Virginia -0.34 +/- 0.21
Oklahoma -0.55 +/- 0.33 Oklahoma -0.73 +/- 0.38
Schedule Strength ratings continue to rise for most Big 12 teams, though rankings have
fallen in some cases.
Average offense (pts) Average defense (pts) Total Points Scoring Margin (pts)
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
Iowa State 78.46 Texas Tech 57.96 West Virginia 147.50 Texas Tech +12.00
Kansas 76.08 Kansas State 59.61 Kansas 146.92 Iowa State +11.17
TCU 75.78 Baylor 65.39 Iowa State 145.75 Baylor +6.78
Baylor 72.17 Texas 66.92 TCU 144.87 TCU +6.70
Oklahoma 71.58 Iowa State 67.29 Oklahoma 139.79 Kansas State +5.74
West Virginia 71.58 Oklahoma 68.21 Oklahoma State 139.70 Kansas +5.25
Texas 71.46 TCU 69.09 Texas 138.38 Texas +4.54
Texas Tech 69.96 Kansas 70.83 Baylor 137.57 Oklahoma +3.38
Oklahoma State 68.78 Oklahoma State 70.91 Texas Tech 127.92 Oklahoma State -2.13
Kansas State 65.35 West Virginia 75.92 Kansas State 124.96 West Virginia -4.33
Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Kansas 83.00 ( 1)
Oklahoma State 81.34 ( 3)
Oklahoma 81.17 ( 5)
Texas 81.15 ( 7)
West Virginia 79.62 (18)
Kansas State 78.73 (25)
Iowa State 78.52 (30)
TCU 78.19 (37)
Texas Tech 78.03 (42)
Baylor 77.95 (45)
The following user(s) said Thank You: hairyhawk, wardhawk, Socalhawk, DocBlues, KMT, jaythawk1
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