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Big 12 projection, Round 11

  • asteroid
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5 months 1 week ago #21151 by asteroid
Although both West Virginia and Oklahoma State lost, the Mountaineer loss came at
home while the Cowboy loss was on the road, so West Virginia drops into the cellar.
Kansas State beat a depleted Bear squad which slid below Texas in the projected
standings, while Iowa State suffered an unexpected home loss to TCU, which caused
the Wildcats to ascend into first place and the Cyclones to drop below both Kansas
and Texas Tech, who picked up a road win in Norman and in the process edged out
Kansas for second place.  However, because the season cannot end with fractional
wins, one should think of the latest projection as representing a three-way tie at
12-6.

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2  Rnd 3  Rnd 4  Rnd 5  Rnd 6  Rnd 7  Rnd 8  Rnd 9
                      Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.
      Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins 
      --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
      Kansas State     7.81   6.43   6.43   6.63   7.59   8.85   9.59  10.43  10.21  10.87
      Texas Tech      11.96  12.28  12.35  12.71  13.27  12.28  11.39  10.65  11.08  10.71
      Kansas          12.80  13.08  12.07  12.50  12.87  13.01  12.20  12.60  11.89  12.31
      Iowa State      10.49  10.85  11.75  11.07  10.07  10.97  11.17  10.81  11.27  11.56
      Texas            8.51   9.83  10.18   9.36   8.73   8.61   9.04   8.67   9.08   8.78
      Baylor           6.32   6.33   6.24   7.06   6.72   7.51   8.33   9.09  10.29  10.83
      TCU              9.99   9.87  10.00   9.68   9.46  10.05   9.32   9.70   8.97   8.23
      Oklahoma        10.61  10.41  10.34  10.10  10.44   9.05   8.55   9.18   8.34   7.60
      Oklahoma State   5.22   4.82   4.72   5.34   6.30   5.60   5.45   4.85   5.05   4.53
      West Virginia    6.29   6.10   5.92   5.55   4.55   4.07   4.96   4.02   3.82   4.58

                      Rd 10  Rd 11
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
# 28  Kansas State    11.59  12.27    8  2  @UT  (Tu)   
# 13  Texas Tech      11.00  11.65    7  4  @OSU (We)   TTU by  6.5  RW
# 11  Kansas          11.67  11.61    7  4  @TCU (Mo)   KU  by  0.7  RW
# 17  Iowa State      12.11  11.21    7  4   bye (  )   
# 23  Texas            9.28   9.81    6  5   KSU (Tu)   UT  by  3.7
# 38  Baylor          10.32   9.75    6  4   OU  (Mo)   BU  by  2.0
# 32  TCU              8.38   9.21    5  5   KU  (Mo)   
# 30  Oklahoma         6.98   6.38    3  8  @BU  (Mo)   
# 67  Oklahoma State   4.33   4.25    2  8   TTU (We)   
# 77  West Virginia    4.34   3.86    2  9   bye (  )   

Dunkel took honors for best prognostications in Round 11.  Greenfield retains the season lead.

Predictions                                                                                           
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
KU  over OSU  13.4  13.0  12.8  11.0  13.5  11.5  12.4  26.0  15.7  16.6  12.0  20.0  13.2  15.5  11.5
ISU over TCU   7.1  10.0   8.6  10.5  13.0  10.0   9.1   5.7   8.7  11.2   6.0  12.0   8.5  10.8  12.1
UT  over WVU   3.2   4.0   4.9   4.0  10.0   3.5   5.7   4.7   6.7   2.0   4.0  -2.0   5.8   3.5   5.5
BU  over KSU   2.2   2.0   4.0   3.0  -1.0   3.0   4.6  -1.7   2.6   5.0  -2.0   5.0   4.0   6.3   7.8
OU  over TTU   0.5   2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -6.0  -1.0  -0.8   2.9  -0.3  -0.8  -1.0   6.0  -0.5   1.8  -1.7

     Reality  Error                                                                                  
     -------  --1-----------1-----1-----2-----1-----------------------1-----------1-----------1-----2-
              Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
        12     1.4   1.0   0.8   1.0   1.5   0.5   0.4  14.0   3.7   4.6   0.0   8.0   1.2   3.5   0.5
        -9    16.1  19.0  17.6  19.5  22.0  19.0  18.1  14.7  17.7  20.2  15.0  21.0  17.5  19.8  21.1
        22    18.8  18.0  17.1  18.0  12.0  18.5  16.3  17.3  15.3  20.0  18.0  24.0  16.2  18.5  16.5
        -7     9.2   9.0  11.0  10.0   6.0  10.0  11.6   5.3   9.6  12.0   5.0  12.0  11.0  13.3  14.8
       -12    12.5  14.0  11.0  11.0   6.0  11.0  11.2  14.9  11.7  11.2  11.0  18.0  11.5  13.8  10.3

total         58.0  61.0  57.5  59.5  47.5  59.0  57.6  66.2  58.0  68.0  49.0  83.0  57.4  68.9  63.2
previous     425.7 451.0 420.4 406.5 457.0 409.0 438.2 608.9 483.2 421.5 507.0 482.0 460.1 468.4 470.1
cumulative   483.7 512.0 477.9 466.0 504.5 468.0 495.8 675.1 541.2 489.5 556.0 565.0 517.5 537.3 533.3
per game       9.1   9.7   9.0   8.8   9.5   8.8   9.4  12.7  10.2   9.2  10.5  10.7   9.8  10.1  10.1

Only one road win was projected for Round 11, but four occurred, so we're now one road win ahead
of the long-trem one-in-three average.  Two road wins are projected for Round 12, but KU's game
in Fort Worth is effectively a toss-up.

Road wins (19 out of 53)                   Home losses                            Differential (RW-HL)
----------------------------------------   ------------------------------------   --------------------
4 Kansas State   ISU OU  OSU BU            0 Kansas                               +3 Kansas State  
3 Baylor         OSU WVU OU                0 TCU                                  +2 Texas Tech    
3 Iowa State     OSU TTU OU                1 Kansas State   UT                    +1 Baylor        
3 Texas Tech     WVU UT  OU                1 Texas          TTU                   +1 Iowa State    
2 Texas          KSU WVU                   1 Texas Tech     ISU                   +1 Kansas        
1 Kansas         BU                        2 Baylor         KU  KSU               +1 TCU           
1 Oklahoma       OSU                       2 Iowa State     KSU TCU               +1 Texas         
1 Oklahoma State WVU                       4 Oklahoma       KSU BU  ISU TTU       -3 Oklahoma      
1 TCU            ISU                       4 Oklahoma State ISU BU  OU  KSU       -3 Oklahoma State
0 West Virginia                            4 West Virginia  TTU OSU BU  UT        -4 West Virginia 

Inconsistency for Iowa State jumped.  Kansas State has taken over the top spot
in mental toughness.

Performance (points)    Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------   ----------------------    
Iowa State      +1.20   Kansas            8.12    
Texas Tech      +0.69   Iowa State        9.92    
TCU             +0.31   Texas Tech        9.99    
Texas           +0.13   Oklahoma State   10.08    
Baylor          +0.01   West Virginia    10.08    
Kansas          -0.23   Kansas State     11.39    
Oklahoma        -0.26   Oklahoma         11.51    
Oklahoma State  -0.53   Texas            11.58    
Kansas State    -1.29   TCU              11.73    
West Virginia   -2.62   Baylor           13.89    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Baylor          +1.04 +/- 0.38    Kansas State    +0.52 +/- 0.22
Kansas State    +0.64 +/- 0.34    Baylor          +0.49 +/- 0.25
Texas           +0.40 +/- 0.34    Texas           +0.37 +/- 0.26
Iowa State      +0.14 +/- 0.30    Oklahoma State  +0.19 +/- 0.24
TCU              0.00 +/- 0.38    Texas Tech      -0.02 +/- 0.15
Texas Tech      -0.09 +/- 0.30    Iowa State      -0.04 +/- 0.19
Oklahoma State  -0.19 +/- 0.32    Kansas          -0.04 +/- 0.21
Kansas          -0.26 +/- 0.24    TCU             -0.09 +/- 0.27
West Virginia   -0.44 +/- 0.29    West Virginia   -0.34 +/- 0.21
Oklahoma        -0.55 +/- 0.33    Oklahoma        -0.73 +/- 0.38

Schedule Strength ratings continue to rise for most Big 12 teams, though rankings have
fallen in some cases.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
Iowa State      78.46   Texas Tech      57.96   West Virginia   147.50   Texas Tech      +12.00   
Kansas          76.08   Kansas State    59.61   Kansas          146.92   Iowa State      +11.17   
TCU             75.78   Baylor          65.39   Iowa State      145.75   Baylor           +6.78   
Baylor          72.17   Texas           66.92   TCU             144.87   TCU              +6.70   
Oklahoma        71.58   Iowa State      67.29   Oklahoma        139.79   Kansas State     +5.74   
West Virginia   71.58   Oklahoma        68.21   Oklahoma State  139.70   Kansas           +5.25   
Texas           71.46   TCU             69.09   Texas           138.38   Texas            +4.54   
Texas Tech      69.96   Kansas          70.83   Baylor          137.57   Oklahoma         +3.38   
Oklahoma State  68.78   Oklahoma State  70.91   Texas Tech      127.92   Oklahoma State   -2.13   
Kansas State    65.35   West Virginia   75.92   Kansas State    124.96   West Virginia    -4.33   

Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Kansas          83.00 ( 1)
Oklahoma State  81.34 ( 3)
Oklahoma        81.17 ( 5)
Texas           81.15 ( 7)
West Virginia   79.62 (18)
Kansas State    78.73 (25)
Iowa State      78.52 (30)
TCU             78.19 (37)
Texas Tech      78.03 (42)
Baylor          77.95 (45)
The following user(s) said Thank You: hairyhawk, wardhawk, Socalhawk, DocBlues, KMT, jaythawk1

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