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predictions for Oklahoma State game

  • asteroid
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5 years 1 month ago #21108 by asteroid
You know I hate these early tips.

Home game against a conference cellar dweller.  One of the two easiest remaining
games on the schedule.  Yet with the roster getting thinner and thinner, there
is anxiety with each game.  Oklahoma State nearly pulled off the upset in
Fort Worth, and it just so happens that TCU is the only other Big 12 not to have
a home loss this season.  Will we see a repeat in Lawrence today?

The Cowboys have played above expectation by more than 13 points only twice this
season, against Memphis and LSU in their fourth and sixth games of the season.
Kansas has played below expectation by more than 13 points only once, in Ames.
If this was the "average" Jayhawk team, one might call this game a bit of a
breather in what has otherwise been a brutal conference schedule.  But with so
many players unavailable, it's not the average Jayhawk team.

The negative trend for Kansas is statistically significant; the trend for
Oklahoma State is not, as well either mental toughness rating.  Taken at face
value, it costs Kansas about 5 points.  Fortunately, the margin is larger than
that.

Among Greenfield's eight offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in seven of
them; assists per game is a wash.  Among the seven defensive stats, Kansas
has the advantage in four of them; Oklahoma State holds opponents to fewer
points per game (marginally), blocks more shots per game, and commits fewer
personal fouls per game.

Common Opponents
================
There are eight common opponents, seven in conference plus Villanova, one of which
Kansas has already played twice (Texas), one of which Oklahoma State has already
played twice (Oklahoma), and one that both teams have played twice (Iowa State,
where I will use only the home-home and road-road permutations) giving us eleven
scores to compare:

KU   +3 Vil at home ( -1 neutral court)
OSU -19 Vil neutral (-19 neutral court)
KU  +22 OSU at home (+18 neutral court)

KU   +4 ISU at home (  0 neutral court)     KU  -17 ISU on road (-13 neutral court)
OSU  -6 ISU at home (-10 neutral court)     OSU -13 ISU on road ( -9 neutral court)
KU  +14 OSU at home (+10 neutral court)     KU    0 OSU at home ( -4 neutral court)

KU   +7 OU  at home ( +3 neutral court)     KU   +7 OU  at home ( +3 neutral court)
OSU -10 OU  on road ( -6 neutral court)     OSU  -9 OU  at home (-13 neutral court)
KU  +13 OSU at home ( +9 neutral court)     KU  +20 OSU at home (+16 neutral court)

KU   +2 UT  at home ( -2 neutral court)     KU  -10 UT  on road ( -6 neutral court)
OSU  +3 UT  at home ( -1 neutral court)     OSU  +3 UT  at home ( -1 neutral court)
KU   +3 OSU at home ( -1 neutral court)     KU   -1 OSU at home ( -5 neutral court)

KU   -1 WVU on road ( +3 neutral court)
OSU  +8 WVU on road (+12 neutral court)
KU   -5 OSU at home ( -9 neutral court)

KU   +5 BU  on road ( +9 neutral court)
OSU  -4 BU  at home ( -8 neutral court)
KU  +21 OSU at home (+17 neutral court)

KU   -7 KSU on road ( -3 neutral court)
OSU -18 KSU at home (-22 neutral court)
KU  +23 OSU at home (+19 neutral court)

KU   +9 TCU at home ( +5 neutral court)
OSU  -2 TCU on road ( +2 neutral court)
KU   +7 OSU at home ( +3 neutral court)

Eight of the comparisons favor Kansas, some by large amounts, two favor Oklahoma
State marginally, and one is a wash.  The average is 10.6 points in favor of Kansas.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Lindy Waters (guard)
most points        Cameron McGriff (forward)
most rebounds      Cameron McGriff (forward)
most assists       Isaac Likekele (guard)
most steals        Isaac Likekele (guard)
most blocks        Yor Anei (forward)
most turnovers     Michael Weathers (guard)
most fouls         Yor Anei (forward)

Forward Trey Reeves is out with a broken right foot, but because he has averaged
only 1 minute per game, that's not a major loss.  Forward Duncan Demuth sat out
the previous game with a strained back and it is unclear whether he will be
available for today's game; he's tenth on the team in minutes played, so again,
not a major loss.

Meanwhile, Kansas is minus four major contributors.  No Doke (no joke), no
De Sousa, no Garrett, and now no Vick.  Sheesh.  The hits just keep on coming.

                                                          17-6            9-13
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Oklahoma State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall        +13.42   78   65                # 10   #  1     # 72   # 10 
Sagarin Predictor      +13.36   78   65      92.5      # 12   #  1     # 73   # 10 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +14.00   78   64                #  9   #  1     # 69   # 10 
Sagarin Recent Games   +12.74   78   65                # 30   #  1     #119   # 10
Sagarin Eigenvector    +20.49   82   61      94        
Massey                 +13.00   78   65      90        # 17   #  1     # 92   # 17
Pomeroy                +12.79   76   63                # 16   #  1     # 92   # 11
Greenfield             +11.00   76   65                # 15   #  2     # 89   # 35
Dunkel                 +13.50   79   65                #  5            # 58       
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +11.50   76   64.5                                         
Dolphin Predictive     +12.43   78   65      86.0      # 17   #  5     # 92   # 32
Real Time              +20.00   86   66      87.9      #  8   #  1     #142   #  5 
Seven Overtimes        +12.00   77   65      85        #  5   #  1     #114   # 13
DPPI                                                   #      #        #      #    
ESPN BPI               +16.60                92.6      # 17   #  1     #115   # 12
Whitlock               +15.72                          # 13   #  1     # 91   #  7
Colley Matrix          +25.96                          #  4   #  1     #115   #  4
NCAA NET                                               # 18            # 75
common opponents       +10.64                                                           
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                +14.7    78.5 64.5
scatter                  4.0     2.8  1.3

Here is Kansas' season; the season record projection remains at 23-8, with
a projected loss at Texas Tech:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  5 Michigan State              92  87    -4.53    +9.53
HOME   # 81 Vermont                     84  68   +13.94    +2.06
HOME   #178 Louisiana                   89  76   +21.93    -8.93
NEUT   # 21 Marquette                   77  68    +2.71    +6.29
NEUT   #  7 Tennessee                   87  81    -2.18    +8.18
HOME   #103 Stanford                    90  84   +15.67    -9.67
HOME   # 51 Wofford                     72  47   +10.81   +14.19
HOME   # 60 New Mexico State            63  60   +12.29    -9.29
HOME   # 17 Villanova                   74  71    +4.21    -1.21
HOME   #217 South Dakota                89  53   +24.77   +11.23
AWAY   # 54 Arizona State               76  80    +4.71    -8.71
HOME   #165 Eastern Michigan            87  63   +21.16    +2.84
HOME   # 26 Oklahoma                    70  63    +6.80    +0.20
AWAY   # 14 Iowa State                  60  77    -2.42   -14.58
HOME   # 34 TCU                         77  68    +7.77    +1.23
AWAY   # 36 Baylor                      73  68    +1.79    +3.21
HOME   # 29 Texas                       80  78    +6.95    -4.95
AWAY   # 69 West Virginia               64  65    +6.98    -7.98
HOME   # 14 Iowa State                  80  76    +3.82    +0.18
AWAY   #  6 Kentucky                    63  71    -5.60    -2.40
AWAY   # 29 Texas                       63  73    +0.71   -10.71
HOME   # 16 Texas Tech                  79  63    +4.15   +11.85
AWAY   # 30 Kansas State                67  74    +0.88    -7.88
HOME   # 73 Oklahoma State                       +13.36             0.925
AWAY   # 34 TCU                                   +1.53             0.560
HOME   # 69 West Virginia                        +13.22             0.929
AWAY   # 16 Texas Tech                            -2.09             0.410
HOME   # 30 Kansas State                          +7.12             0.762
AWAY   # 73 Oklahoma State                        +7.12             0.778
AWAY   # 26 Oklahoma                              +0.56             0.522
HOME   # 36 Baylor                                +8.03             0.757

Here is Oklahoma State's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
AWAY   #299 Charlotte                   64  66   +13.04   -15.04
HOME   #145 UTSA                        82  60    +9.26   +12.74
HOME   #126 College of Charleston       70  58    +7.38    +4.62
NEUT   # 71 Memphis                     84  64    -0.08   +20.08
NEUT   # 17 Villanova                   58  77    -9.15    -9.85
NEUT   # 25 LSU                         90  77    -6.75   +19.75
AWAY   # 52 Minnesota                   76  83    -5.59    -1.41
AWAY   #121 Tulsa                       71  74    +0.88    -3.88
HOME   # 19 Houston                     53  63    -4.57    -5.43
NEUT   # 20 Nebraska                    56  79    -7.63   -15.37
HOME   #295 Central Arkansas            82  73   +18.75    -9.75
HOME   #274 Texas A&M-CorpusChristi     69  59   +17.54    -7.54
HOME   # 14 Iowa State                  63  69    -6.42    +0.42
AWAY   # 26 Oklahoma                    64  74    -9.68    -0.32
HOME   # 29 Texas                       61  58    -3.29    +6.29
AWAY   # 69 West Virginia               85  77    -3.26   +11.26
HOME   # 36 Baylor                      69  73    -2.21    -1.79
AWAY   # 14 Iowa State                  59  72   -12.66    -0.34
HOME   # 26 Oklahoma                    61  70    -3.44    -5.56
HOME   # 99 South Carolina              74  70    +4.82    -0.82
HOME   # 30 Kansas State                57  75    -3.12   -14.88
AWAY   # 34 TCU                         68  70    -8.71    +6.71
AWAY   # 12 Kansas                               -13.36             0.075
HOME   # 16 Texas Tech                            -6.09             0.274
AWAY   # 29 Texas                                 -9.53             0.188
HOME   # 34 TCU                                   -2.47             0.411
AWAY   # 30 Kansas State                          -9.36             0.195
AWAY   # 16 Texas Tech                           -12.33             0.112
HOME   # 12 Kansas                                -7.12             0.222
AWAY   # 36 Baylor                                -8.45             0.246
HOME   # 69 West Virginia                         +2.98             0.618
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, hairyhawk, gorillahawk, wardhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, jaythawk1

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  • HawkErrant
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5 years 1 month ago #21113 by HawkErrant
No ka oi!


"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"

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