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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Oklahoma State game
- asteroid
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5 years 1 month ago #21108
by asteroid
You know I hate these early tips.
Home game against a conference cellar dweller. One of the two easiest remaining
games on the schedule. Yet with the roster getting thinner and thinner, there
is anxiety with each game. Oklahoma State nearly pulled off the upset in
Fort Worth, and it just so happens that TCU is the only other Big 12 not to have
a home loss this season. Will we see a repeat in Lawrence today?
The Cowboys have played above expectation by more than 13 points only twice this
season, against Memphis and LSU in their fourth and sixth games of the season.
Kansas has played below expectation by more than 13 points only once, in Ames.
If this was the "average" Jayhawk team, one might call this game a bit of a
breather in what has otherwise been a brutal conference schedule. But with so
many players unavailable, it's not the average Jayhawk team.
The negative trend for Kansas is statistically significant; the trend for
Oklahoma State is not, as well either mental toughness rating. Taken at face
value, it costs Kansas about 5 points. Fortunately, the margin is larger than
that.
Among Greenfield's eight offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in seven of
them; assists per game is a wash. Among the seven defensive stats, Kansas
has the advantage in four of them; Oklahoma State holds opponents to fewer
points per game (marginally), blocks more shots per game, and commits fewer
personal fouls per game.
Common Opponents
================
There are eight common opponents, seven in conference plus Villanova, one of which
Kansas has already played twice (Texas), one of which Oklahoma State has already
played twice (Oklahoma), and one that both teams have played twice (Iowa State,
where I will use only the home-home and road-road permutations) giving us eleven
scores to compare:
KU +3 Vil at home ( -1 neutral court)
OSU -19 Vil neutral (-19 neutral court)
KU +22 OSU at home (+18 neutral court)
KU +4 ISU at home ( 0 neutral court) KU -17 ISU on road (-13 neutral court)
OSU -6 ISU at home (-10 neutral court) OSU -13 ISU on road ( -9 neutral court)
KU +14 OSU at home (+10 neutral court) KU 0 OSU at home ( -4 neutral court)
KU +7 OU at home ( +3 neutral court) KU +7 OU at home ( +3 neutral court)
OSU -10 OU on road ( -6 neutral court) OSU -9 OU at home (-13 neutral court)
KU +13 OSU at home ( +9 neutral court) KU +20 OSU at home (+16 neutral court)
KU +2 UT at home ( -2 neutral court) KU -10 UT on road ( -6 neutral court)
OSU +3 UT at home ( -1 neutral court) OSU +3 UT at home ( -1 neutral court)
KU +3 OSU at home ( -1 neutral court) KU -1 OSU at home ( -5 neutral court)
KU -1 WVU on road ( +3 neutral court)
OSU +8 WVU on road (+12 neutral court)
KU -5 OSU at home ( -9 neutral court)
KU +5 BU on road ( +9 neutral court)
OSU -4 BU at home ( -8 neutral court)
KU +21 OSU at home (+17 neutral court)
KU -7 KSU on road ( -3 neutral court)
OSU -18 KSU at home (-22 neutral court)
KU +23 OSU at home (+19 neutral court)
KU +9 TCU at home ( +5 neutral court)
OSU -2 TCU on road ( +2 neutral court)
KU +7 OSU at home ( +3 neutral court)
Eight of the comparisons favor Kansas, some by large amounts, two favor Oklahoma
State marginally, and one is a wash. The average is 10.6 points in favor of Kansas.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Lindy Waters (guard)
most points Cameron McGriff (forward)
most rebounds Cameron McGriff (forward)
most assists Isaac Likekele (guard)
most steals Isaac Likekele (guard)
most blocks Yor Anei (forward)
most turnovers Michael Weathers (guard)
most fouls Yor Anei (forward)
Forward Trey Reeves is out with a broken right foot, but because he has averaged
only 1 minute per game, that's not a major loss. Forward Duncan Demuth sat out
the previous game with a strained back and it is unclear whether he will be
available for today's game; he's tenth on the team in minutes played, so again,
not a major loss.
Meanwhile, Kansas is minus four major contributors. No Doke (no joke), no
De Sousa, no Garrett, and now no Vick. Sheesh. The hits just keep on coming.
17-6 9-13
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Oklahoma State
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============= =============
Sagarin Overall +13.42 78 65 # 10 # 1 # 72 # 10
Sagarin Predictor +13.36 78 65 92.5 # 12 # 1 # 73 # 10
Sagarin Golden Mean +14.00 78 64 # 9 # 1 # 69 # 10
Sagarin Recent Games +12.74 78 65 # 30 # 1 #119 # 10
Sagarin Eigenvector +20.49 82 61 94
Massey +13.00 78 65 90 # 17 # 1 # 92 # 17
Pomeroy +12.79 76 63 # 16 # 1 # 92 # 11
Greenfield +11.00 76 65 # 15 # 2 # 89 # 35
Dunkel +13.50 79 65 # 5 # 58
Vegas (via Dunkel) +11.50 76 64.5
Dolphin Predictive +12.43 78 65 86.0 # 17 # 5 # 92 # 32
Real Time +20.00 86 66 87.9 # 8 # 1 #142 # 5
Seven Overtimes +12.00 77 65 85 # 5 # 1 #114 # 13
DPPI # # # #
ESPN BPI +16.60 92.6 # 17 # 1 #115 # 12
Whitlock +15.72 # 13 # 1 # 91 # 7
Colley Matrix +25.96 # 4 # 1 #115 # 4
NCAA NET # 18 # 75
common opponents +10.64
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +14.7 78.5 64.5
scatter 4.0 2.8 1.3
Here is Kansas' season; the season record projection remains at 23-8, with
a projected loss at Texas Tech:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 5 Michigan State 92 87 -4.53 +9.53
HOME # 81 Vermont 84 68 +13.94 +2.06
HOME #178 Louisiana 89 76 +21.93 -8.93
NEUT # 21 Marquette 77 68 +2.71 +6.29
NEUT # 7 Tennessee 87 81 -2.18 +8.18
HOME #103 Stanford 90 84 +15.67 -9.67
HOME # 51 Wofford 72 47 +10.81 +14.19
HOME # 60 New Mexico State 63 60 +12.29 -9.29
HOME # 17 Villanova 74 71 +4.21 -1.21
HOME #217 South Dakota 89 53 +24.77 +11.23
AWAY # 54 Arizona State 76 80 +4.71 -8.71
HOME #165 Eastern Michigan 87 63 +21.16 +2.84
HOME # 26 Oklahoma 70 63 +6.80 +0.20
AWAY # 14 Iowa State 60 77 -2.42 -14.58
HOME # 34 TCU 77 68 +7.77 +1.23
AWAY # 36 Baylor 73 68 +1.79 +3.21
HOME # 29 Texas 80 78 +6.95 -4.95
AWAY # 69 West Virginia 64 65 +6.98 -7.98
HOME # 14 Iowa State 80 76 +3.82 +0.18
AWAY # 6 Kentucky 63 71 -5.60 -2.40
AWAY # 29 Texas 63 73 +0.71 -10.71
HOME # 16 Texas Tech 79 63 +4.15 +11.85
AWAY # 30 Kansas State 67 74 +0.88 -7.88
HOME # 73 Oklahoma State +13.36 0.925
AWAY # 34 TCU +1.53 0.560
HOME # 69 West Virginia +13.22 0.929
AWAY # 16 Texas Tech -2.09 0.410
HOME # 30 Kansas State +7.12 0.762
AWAY # 73 Oklahoma State +7.12 0.778
AWAY # 26 Oklahoma +0.56 0.522
HOME # 36 Baylor +8.03 0.757
Here is Oklahoma State's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
AWAY #299 Charlotte 64 66 +13.04 -15.04
HOME #145 UTSA 82 60 +9.26 +12.74
HOME #126 College of Charleston 70 58 +7.38 +4.62
NEUT # 71 Memphis 84 64 -0.08 +20.08
NEUT # 17 Villanova 58 77 -9.15 -9.85
NEUT # 25 LSU 90 77 -6.75 +19.75
AWAY # 52 Minnesota 76 83 -5.59 -1.41
AWAY #121 Tulsa 71 74 +0.88 -3.88
HOME # 19 Houston 53 63 -4.57 -5.43
NEUT # 20 Nebraska 56 79 -7.63 -15.37
HOME #295 Central Arkansas 82 73 +18.75 -9.75
HOME #274 Texas A&M-CorpusChristi 69 59 +17.54 -7.54
HOME # 14 Iowa State 63 69 -6.42 +0.42
AWAY # 26 Oklahoma 64 74 -9.68 -0.32
HOME # 29 Texas 61 58 -3.29 +6.29
AWAY # 69 West Virginia 85 77 -3.26 +11.26
HOME # 36 Baylor 69 73 -2.21 -1.79
AWAY # 14 Iowa State 59 72 -12.66 -0.34
HOME # 26 Oklahoma 61 70 -3.44 -5.56
HOME # 99 South Carolina 74 70 +4.82 -0.82
HOME # 30 Kansas State 57 75 -3.12 -14.88
AWAY # 34 TCU 68 70 -8.71 +6.71
AWAY # 12 Kansas -13.36 0.075
HOME # 16 Texas Tech -6.09 0.274
AWAY # 29 Texas -9.53 0.188
HOME # 34 TCU -2.47 0.411
AWAY # 30 Kansas State -9.36 0.195
AWAY # 16 Texas Tech -12.33 0.112
HOME # 12 Kansas -7.12 0.222
AWAY # 36 Baylor -8.45 0.246
HOME # 69 West Virginia +2.98 0.618
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, hairyhawk, gorillahawk, wardhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, jaythawk1
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5 years 1 month ago #21113
by HawkErrant
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
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