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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Big 12 projection, Round 10
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5 years 2 months ago #21082
by asteroid
The Texas Tech walloping of West Virginia, coupled with Baylor's loss to Texas, caused
the Red Raiders to take over fourth place from the Bears. Iowa State barely won their
road game in Norman, while Kansas failed to win their road game in Manhattan, and the
result is that the Cyclones are now the front-runner, though Kansas barely held on to
second place over the Wildcats. Because the Jayhawks are not in a position to hand
Iowa State another loss, they are officially in the position of needing help. First
half of the conference season is on top, second half is below.
Init. Rnd 1 Rnd 2 Rnd 3 Rnd 4 Rnd 5 Rnd 6 Rnd 7 Rnd 8 Rnd 9
Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj.
Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins
-------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Iowa State 10.49 10.85 11.75 11.07 10.07 10.97 11.17 10.81 11.27 11.56
Kansas 12.80 13.08 12.07 12.50 12.87 13.01 12.20 12.60 11.89 12.31
Kansas State 7.81 6.43 6.43 6.63 7.59 8.85 9.59 10.43 10.21 10.87
Texas Tech 11.96 12.28 12.35 12.71 13.27 12.28 11.39 10.65 11.08 10.71
Baylor 6.32 6.33 6.24 7.06 6.72 7.51 8.33 9.09 10.29 10.83
Texas 8.51 9.83 10.18 9.36 8.73 8.61 9.04 8.67 9.08 8.78
TCU 9.99 9.87 10.00 9.68 9.46 10.05 9.32 9.70 8.97 8.23
Oklahoma 10.61 10.41 10.34 10.10 10.44 9.05 8.55 9.18 8.34 7.60
West Virginia 6.29 6.10 5.92 5.55 4.55 4.07 4.96 4.02 3.82 4.58
Oklahoma State 5.22 4.82 4.72 5.34 6.30 5.60 5.45 4.85 5.05 4.53
Rd 10
Pred Proj. Conf
Rank Big XII Team Wins Record Next Game Prediction
---- -------------- ----- ------ --------- -----------
# 14 Iowa State 12.11 7 3 TCU (Sa) ISU by 6.9
# 11 Kansas 11.67 6 4 OSU (Sa) KU by 13.5
# 29 Kansas State 11.59 7 2 @BU (Sa)
# 15 Texas Tech 11.00 6 4 @OU (Sa)
# 37 Baylor 10.32 6 3 KSU (Sa) BU by 2.1
# 28 Texas 9.28 5 5 @WVU (Sa) UT by 3.1 RW
# 34 TCU 8.38 4 5 @ISU (Sa)
# 25 Oklahoma 6.98 3 7 TTU (Sa) OU by 0.5
# 67 West Virginia 4.34 2 8 UT (Sa)
# 73 Oklahoma State 4.33 2 7 @KU (Sa)
My home court adjustment to the performance-adjusted Sagarin ratings took honors for best
prognostications in Round 10, with honorable mention to Greenfield, who retained the season
lead.
Predictions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
TTU over WVU 11.1 13.0 13.1 11.5 16.0 11.5 12.3 20.1 14.9 15.3 9.0 18.0 14.2 16.5 9.4
TCU over OSU 9.2 10.0 9.4 9.0 11.0 9.0 9.5 16.1 11.2 11.9 9.0 17.0 9.9 12.2 12.2
UT over BU 3.7 3.0 2.5 3.0 -9.5 3.0 1.4 0.7 2.7 2.3 -2.0 4.0 3.1 5.4 -5.7
KU over KSU 1.6 2.0 1.1 -3.5 0.0 -2.5 0.9 4.4 2.6 1.7 1.0 -7.0 2.3 0.0 -1.9
OU over ISU 0.6 -2.0 -2.4 -2.5 -11.0 -2.5 -2.3 5.5 -1.4 -1.5 -2.0 4.0 -1.5 0.8 -6.0
Reality Error
------- --1-----------1-----1-----1-----1-----------------------1-----------1-----------1-----2-
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
31 19.9 18.0 17.9 19.5 15.0 19.5 18.7 10.9 16.1 15.7 22.0 13.0 16.8 14.5 21.6
2 7.2 8.0 7.4 7.0 9.0 7.0 7.5 14.1 9.2 9.9 7.0 15.0 7.9 10.2 10.2
12 8.3 9.0 9.5 9.0 21.5 9.0 10.6 11.3 9.3 9.7 14.0 8.0 8.9 6.6 17.7
-7 8.6 9.0 8.1 3.5 7.0 4.5 7.9 11.4 9.6 8.7 8.0 0.0 9.3 7.0 5.1
-1 1.6 1.0 1.4 1.5 10.0 1.5 1.3 6.5 0.4 0.5 1.0 5.0 0.5 1.8 5.0
total 45.6 45.0 44.3 40.5 62.5 41.5 46.0 54.2 44.6 44.5 52.0 41.0 43.4 40.1 59.6
previous 380.1 406.0 376.1 366.0 394.5 367.5 392.2 554.7 438.6 377.0 455.0 441.0 416.7 428.3 410.5
cumulative 425.7 451.0 420.4 406.5 457.0 409.0 438.2 608.9 483.2 421.5 507.0 482.0 460.1 468.4 470.1
per game 8.9 9.4 8.8 8.5 9.5 8.5 9.1 12.7 10.1 8.8 10.6 10.0 9.6 9.8 9.8
Only one road win was projected for Round 10, and only one occurred, but it wasn't the one projected.
Instead it was one that propelled Iowa State into the driver's seat for the conference crown. So we're
now one road win behind the long-term average of one in three. Just one road win is projected for
Round 11, as Texas travels to Morgantown, though Texas Tech has a toss-up game in Norman.
Road wins (15 out of 48) Home losses Differential (RW-HL)
---------------------------------------- ------------------------------------ --------------------
3 Baylor OSU WVU OU 0 Kansas +2 Baylor
3 Iowa State OSU TTU OU 0 TCU +2 Iowa State
3 Kansas State ISU OU OSU 1 Baylor KU +2 Kansas State
2 Texas Tech WVU UT 1 Iowa State KSU +1 Kansas
1 Kansas BU 1 Kansas State UT +1 Texas Tech
1 Oklahoma OSU 1 Texas TTU 0 TCU
1 Oklahoma State WVU 1 Texas Tech ISU 0 Texas
1 Texas KSU 3 Oklahoma KSU BU ISU -2 Oklahoma
0 TCU 3 West Virginia TTU OSU BU -3 Oklahoma State
0 West Virginia 4 Oklahoma State ISU BU OU KSU -3 West Virginia
The inconsistency for West Virginia and Texas Tech jumped, as expected when a game
margin is almost 19 points from expectation.
Performance (points) Inconsistency (points)
--------------------- ----------------------
Iowa State +1.60 Kansas 8.29
Texas Tech +0.81 Iowa State 9.33
Baylor +0.63 West Virginia 9.68
Texas +0.11 Texas Tech 10.04
TCU +0.06 Oklahoma State 10.12
Oklahoma -0.21 Texas 11.33
Oklahoma State -0.49 Kansas State 11.47
Kansas -0.73 Oklahoma 11.48
Kansas State -1.34 TCU 11.63
West Virginia -2.58 Baylor 14.08
Trend (points per game) Mental toughness
------------------------------ ------------------------------
Baylor +1.27 +/- 0.39 Baylor +0.52 +/- 0.25
Kansas State +0.59 +/- 0.37 Kansas State +0.50 +/- 0.23
Iowa State +0.33 +/- 0.29 Texas +0.38 +/- 0.24
Texas +0.27 +/- 0.36 Oklahoma State +0.17 +/- 0.25
TCU -0.21 +/- 0.40 Iowa State -0.04 +/- 0.18
Oklahoma State -0.22 +/- 0.34 Texas Tech -0.05 +/- 0.16
Texas Tech -0.24 +/- 0.32 Kansas -0.06 +/- 0.22
Kansas -0.31 +/- 0.26 TCU -0.22 +/- 0.28
West Virginia -0.32 +/- 0.30 West Virginia -0.32 +/- 0.21
Oklahoma -0.47 +/- 0.35 Oklahoma -0.66 +/- 0.38
Well, Texas Tech is right back in the cellar in terms of Strength of Schedule. Oklahoma
State cracked the Top 10 and ought to climb further after traveling to Lawrence this
Saturday. A road trip to Manhattan padded the Jayhawks' lead in Strength of Schedule
even further. Playing a conference doormat at home will erode that lead slightly.
Average offense (pts) Average defense (pts) Total Points Scoring Margin (pts)
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
Iowa State 78.35 Texas Tech 58.22 West Virginia 148.35 Iowa State +12.22
Kansas 75.83 Kansas State 59.55 Kansas 146.52 Texas Tech +11.83
TCU 74.95 Baylor 65.09 Iowa State 144.48 Baylor +7.59
Baylor 72.68 Iowa State 66.13 TCU 143.50 TCU +6.41
West Virginia 72.48 Texas 67.61 Oklahoma 140.65 Kansas State +5.50
Oklahoma 72.43 Oklahoma 68.22 Oklahoma State 138.95 Kansas +5.13
Texas 71.22 TCU 68.55 Texas 138.83 Oklahoma +4.22
Texas Tech 70.04 Oklahoma State 70.41 Baylor 137.77 Texas +3.61
Oklahoma State 68.55 Kansas 70.70 Texas Tech 128.26 Oklahoma State -1.86
Kansas State 65.05 West Virginia 75.87 Kansas State 124.59 West Virginia -3.39
Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Kansas 83.30 ( 1)
Texas 81.12 ( 5)
Oklahoma 80.87 ( 7)
Oklahoma State 80.81 (10)
West Virginia 79.41 (18)
Iowa State 78.42 (26)
Kansas State 78.28 (29)
Baylor 77.85 (38)
TCU 77.67 (40)
Texas Tech 77.57 (42)
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, JayhawkChef, Socalhawk, porthawk, jaythawk1
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