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Updated Big 12 Probabilistic Standings - KU gains with Baylor loss

  • CorpusJayhawk
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5 years 1 month ago #21075 by CorpusJayhawk
This Big 12 race is ridiculous. Baylor loses to Texas and falls from 2nd to 6th. If KU lost Saturday, they would no doubt fall to 6th. That is how razor thin this race is. KU still has the best probability of winning but it is at zero margin for error. Since I have been tracking probabilities, there has been nothing like this in the Big 12. It is rare to have three teams this close much less 6. Literally, 6 teams are within easy striking distance of winning this thing with a key upset. KU sits atop mainly due to the favorable schedule relative to the other teams.


Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
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5 years 1 month ago #21077 by JRhawk
Your first sentence says it all. Crazy that UT led Baylor all the way last night and TCU hit a last second shot at home to beat OSU.
Not sure I agree about KU's favorable schedule - four home and four away, but the away's are at TT and both Oklahomas, where KU has trouble winning. Time will tell.

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5 years 1 month ago #21078 by CorpusJayhawk
JR, it is a fact that there is no such thing as an easy game in the Big 12. But KU has 5 of the remaining 8 games against the bottom 4 teams. While we look at that and see every game fraught with peril, at least relatively we have the lesser teams to contend with. K-State, for instance, has 9 games remaining. 5 against top 6 teams including Kansas, Baylor and Texas on the road. They also have TCo on the road and Baylor at home. Baylor has 6 games against top 6 teams including 2 against Kansas St and Iowa St, Texas Tech and Kansas on the road. Texas has a similar situation th Kansas except for they have Baylor and Texas Tech on the road whereas KU has only Texas Tech on the road as the only road top 6 game. Trust me, as daunting as our schedule looks, it is more daunting for the other 5 contenders.

If you rank all conference games (18 total) by probability of losing, here are the remaining games for the contenders;

Baylor -- 1, 2, 3, 5, 11, 12, 14, 17, 18 (3.8 probable losses)
Iowa St. -- 2, 4, 8, 9, 10, 12, 14, 15, 18 (3.1 probable losses)
Kansas -- 3, 7, 8, 11, 12, 13, 17, 18 (2.3 probable losses)
Kansas St. -- 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 12, 13, 14, 17 (3.5 probable losses)
Texas -- 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 14, 15, 17 (2.8 probable losses)
Texas Tech -- 2, 6, 8, 9, 10, 12, 13, 17 (3.0 probable losses)




Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
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5 years 1 month ago #21080 by JRhawk
Thanks CJ - I was confused before (probabilities have that affect on me), but now am really confused. Two quick examples: in your first post in this thread, you show KU winning 12.0 games, but just above, winning 11.7 games. For KSU was 11.1 and 12.5. Only TT stayed constant at 11.O. Is there an easy explanation?
To your point about schedule comparisons, I understand your point. However, I submit that for KU, playing at OSU is never easy. Also had to look it up (and surprised it was the 12-13 season), but KU lost the infamous Topeka YMCA game at TCU (and KU had a very good team that year). Of the four bottom teams, KU has just played at one (and lost to WVU). My point is, having a schedule with mainly bottom teams is no consolation to me.

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