predictions for Kansas State game

It's the last game of an eleven-game stretch for which the predicted margins
have all been in the single digits, or to put it another way, just three
possession games.  Seven of them have been two possession games.  The Big 12
has just been brutal.

Iowa State won a toss-up road game in Norman yesterday, so to keep pace, Kansas
needs to win a toss-up road game in Manhattan today.  Easier said than done,
given the road difficulties that the Jayhawks have had.  But if you attribute
those road woes to simple statistical fluctuations, then Kansas is due for a
road win.  Can't really count on the hot shooting to continue (every starter
made a three against Texas Tech), nor can we count on the Wildcats shooting as
badly as the Red Raiders did.  But after Devonte's little pep talk, maybe the
Jayhawks are in a better place, even without Garrett in the line-up.

As expected, the predictions are mixed.  Real Time, who appears to use a
substantial home court advantage, is the pessimist of the bunch, calling for
a 7 point Kansas loss.  Greenfield is the next most pessimistic with a 3.5
point Kansas loss.  And since Greenfield mimics Vegas so closely, it's no
surprise that Vegas has it as a 2.5 point loss.  Sagarin's Recent Games ratings
predict a 1 point Kansas loss.  Don Davis' DPPI has it as a toss-up, though
fractionally negative for Kansas.  Dunkel has it even.  Common opponents also
has it as a toss-up, though fractionally positive for Kansas.  The rest are in
favor of Kansas, with Sagarin's eigenvector analysis being the most optimistic
at 5.2 points.  The average is a half point in favor of Kansas, but with a
scatter of 2.8 points.

Because of the Texas Tech defense, the Red Raiders have played the second-lowest
scoring games among Big 12 teams at 128 points per game.  The lowest scoring
games have been played by Kansas State at 124 points per game.  That's why the
predictions call for scores in the 60s.  But Kansas found a way to control the
tempo against Texas Tech, so perhaps the Jayhawks can apply that same winning
formula to today's game.

Kansas State has a positive trend and a positive mental toughness rating, both
of which are statistically significant.  I suspect that is the Dean Wade effect.
Meanwhile, the Azubuike effect for Kansas has resulted in a negative trend of
marginal statistical significance.  The Jayhawks' mental toughness rating is
effectively nil.  Taken at face value, however, Kansas State would be favored
by 2 points.

You can effectively ignore Dunkel's rankings, as he hasn't updated them since
December (Kansas is shown with a 7-0 record).

Among Greenfield's eight offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in all eight.
Wow (with apologies to Dave Armstrong).  Among the seven defensive stats, Kansas
has the advantage in four of them, which is surprising, considering how Kansas
State's claim to fame is its defense; the Wildats hold opponents to fewer points
per game, steal more balls per game, and commit fewer personal fouls per game.

Common Opponents
================
There are seven common opponents, six in conference plus Marquette, two of which Kansas has
already played twice, and one of which Kansas State has already played twice, giving us ten
scores to compare:

KU   +9 Mar neutral ( +9 neutral court)
KSU -12 Mar on road ( -8 neutral court)
KU  +13 KSU on road (+17 neutral court)

KU   +2 UT  at home ( -2 neutral court)     KU  -10 UT  on road ( -6 neutral court)
KSU -20 UT  at home (-24 neutral court)     KSU -20 UT  at home (-24 neutral court)
KU  +18 KSU on road (+22 neutral court)     KU  +14 KSU on road (+18 neutral court)

KU  +16 TTU at home (+12 neutral court)     KU  +16 TTU at home (+12 neutral court)
KSU  -6 TTU on road ( -2 neutral court)     KSU +13 TTU at home ( +9 neutral court)
KU  +10 KSU on road (+14 neutral court)     KU   -1 KSU on road ( +3 neutral court)

KU   -1 WVU on road ( +3 neutral court)
KSU  +2 WVU at home ( -2 neutral court)
KU   +1 KSU on road ( +5 neutral court)

KU  -17 ISU on road (-13 neutral court)     KU   +4 ISU at home (  0 neutral court)
KSU  +1 ISU on road ( +5 neutral court)     KSU  +1 ISU on road ( +5 neutral court)
KU  -22 KSU on road (-18 neutral court)     KU   -9 KSU on road ( -5 neutral court)

KU   +7 OU  at home ( +3 neutral court)
KSU +13 OU  on road (+17 neutral court)
KU  -18 KSU on road (-14 neutral court)

KU   +9 TCU at home ( +5 neutral court)
KSU +10 TCU at home ( +6 neutral court)
KU   -5 KSU on road ( -1 neutral court)

Kansas has a clear advantage in the Marquette and Texas comparisons. while Kansas
State has a clear advantage in the Iowa State and Oklahoma comparisons.  The average
is just 0.1 points in favor of Kansas.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Barry Brown (guard)
most points        Barry Brown (guard)
most rebounds      Dean Wade (forward)
most assists       Kamau Stokes (guard)
most steals        Barry Brown (guard)
most blocks        Makol Mawien (forward)
most turnovers     Barry Brown (guard)
most fouls         Makol Mawien (forward)

Almost as one-dimensional as Texas Tech.  Control Brown, and you should be able to
control the game, though Dean Wade has certainly been a difference maker.

No Doke (no joke), no De Sousa, and no Garrett for Kansas.

Kansas State has no reported injuries.

                                                          17-5            16-5
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Kansas State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall         +1.54   65   64                #  9   #  1     # 27   # 34 
Sagarin Predictor       +1.60   65   63                # 10   #  1     # 34   # 34 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +1.49   65   64                #  9   #  1     # 23   # 34 
Sagarin Recent Games    -1.02   64   65                # 23   #  1     # 30   # 34
Sagarin Eigenvector     +5.20   67   62      69        
Massey                  +2.00   65   63      53        # 12   #  1     # 27   # 38
Pomeroy                 +1.09   62   61                # 15   #  1     # 40   # 40
Greenfield              -3.50   65   68.5              # 13   #  3     # 37   # 35
Dunkel                   0.00   63   63                #  5            # 31       
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -2.50   64   67                                           
Dolphin Predictive      +0.93   64   63      53.4      # 16   #  5     # 40   # 41
Real Time               -7.00   72   79      34.6      #  5   #  1     # 24   # 39 
Seven Overtimes         +1.00   68   67      60        #  3   #  1     # 38   # 44
DPPI                    -0.10   68   68      48.4      # 10   #  1     # 32   # 49 
ESPN BPI                +1.70                56.8      # 15   #  1     # 40   # 51
Whitlock                +2.60                          # 11   #  1     # 35   # 41
Colley Matrix           +4.40                          #  4   #  1     # 19   # 26
NCAA NET                                               # 17            # 30
common opponents        +0.10                                                     
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                 +0.5    65.5 65.5
scatter                  2.8     2.5  4.5

Here is Kansas' season; the season record projection remains at 23-8, with
a projected loss at Texas Tech:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  4 Michigan State              92  87    -4.51    +9.51
HOME   # 79 Vermont                     84  68   +14.31    +1.69
HOME   #173 Louisiana                   89  76   +21.90    -8.90
NEUT   # 20 Marquette                   77  68    +2.55    +6.45
NEUT   #  6 Tennessee                   87  81    -1.83    +7.83
HOME   #108 Stanford                    90  84   +16.77   -10.77
HOME   # 52 Wofford                     72  47   +11.38   +13.62
HOME   # 56 New Mexico State            63  60   +12.14    -9.14
HOME   # 18 Villanova                   74  71    +4.91    -1.91
HOME   #212 South Dakota                89  53   +24.60   +11.40
AWAY   # 47 Arizona State               76  80    +4.25    -8.25
HOME   #168 Eastern Michigan            87  63   +21.73    +2.27
HOME   # 25 Oklahoma                    70  63    +7.26    -0.26
AWAY   # 14 Iowa State                  60  77    -2.05   -14.95
HOME   # 35 TCU                         77  68    +8.01    +0.99
AWAY   # 37 Baylor                      73  68    +2.14    +2.86
HOME   # 33 Texas                       80  78    +7.84    -5.84
AWAY   # 71 West Virginia               64  65    +7.47    -8.47
HOME   # 14 Iowa State                  80  76    +4.23    -0.23
AWAY   #  7 Kentucky                    63  71    -4.76    -3.24
AWAY   # 33 Texas                       63  73    +1.56   -11.56
HOME   # 15 Texas Tech                  79  63    +4.51   +11.49
AWAY   # 34 Kansas State                          +1.60             0.563
HOME   # 74 Oklahoma State                       +13.93             0.933
AWAY   # 35 TCU                                   +1.73             0.566
HOME   # 71 West Virginia                        +13.75             0.941
AWAY   # 15 Texas Tech                            -1.77             0.421
HOME   # 34 Kansas State                          +7.88             0.782
AWAY   # 74 Oklahoma State                        +7.65             0.795
AWAY   # 25 Oklahoma                              +0.98             0.538
HOME   # 37 Baylor                                +8.42             0.764

Here is Kansas State's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #343 Kennesaw State              56  41   +31.80   -16.80
HOME   #282 Denver                      64  56   +23.84   -15.84
NEUT   #238 Eastern Kentucky            95  68   +18.62    +8.38
NEUT   #122 Pennsylvania                64  48    +9.87    +6.13
NEUT   # 92 Missouri                    82  67    +7.13    +7.87
HOME   #156 Lehigh                      77  58   +16.06    +2.94
AWAY   # 20 Marquette                   71  83    -5.33    -6.67
AWAY   #124 Tulsa                       46  47    +6.98    -7.98
HOME   #125 Georgia State               71  59   +13.28    -1.28
HOME   #139 Southern Miss               55  51   +14.62   -10.62
HOME   # 97 Vanderbilt                  69  58   +10.63    +0.37
HOME   #130 George Mason                59  58   +13.77   -12.77
HOME   # 33 Texas                       47  67    +3.10   -23.10
AWAY   # 15 Texas Tech                  57  63    -6.51    +0.51
HOME   # 71 West Virginia               71  69    +9.01    -7.01
AWAY   # 14 Iowa State                  58  57    -6.79    +7.79
AWAY   # 25 Oklahoma                    74  61    -3.76   +16.76
HOME   # 35 TCU                         65  55    +3.27    +6.73
HOME   # 15 Texas Tech                  58  45    -0.23   +13.23
AWAY   # 96 Texas A&M                   53  65    +4.32   -16.32
AWAY   # 74 Oklahoma State              75  57    +2.91   +15.09
HOME   # 10 Kansas                                -1.60             0.437
AWAY   # 37 Baylor                                -2.60             0.421
AWAY   # 33 Texas                                 -3.18             0.391
HOME   # 14 Iowa State                            -0.51             0.481
AWAY   # 71 West Virginia                         +2.73             0.603
HOME   # 74 Oklahoma State                        +9.19             0.801
AWAY   # 10 Kansas                                -7.88             0.218
HOME   # 37 Baylor                                +3.68             0.611
AWAY   # 35 TCU                                   -3.01             0.399
HOME   # 25 Oklahoma                              +2.52             0.586