Big 12 projection, Round 9

West Virginia's home win over Oklahoma was enough to leapfrog Oklahoma State out
of the conference cellar.  Texas Tech's loss to Kansas, coupled with Kansas State's
win in Stillwater caused them to swap places on either side of Baylor, which
remained in fourth place.  We're not quite at the halfway point of the conference
season.  Four teams have had their bye rounds, so only 43 of the 90 conference games
have been played, but it's frightening to see Baylor four games ahead of their
initial prediction, while one wonders if Kruger's seat might be getting a little hot
by being three games behind their initial prediction.  Kansas State has also been
ascending at a substantial rate.

                      Init.  Rnd 5  Rnd 6  Rnd 7  Rnd 8  Rnd 9
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
# 11  Kansas          12.80  13.01  12.20  12.60  11.89  12.31    6  3  @KSU (Tu)   KU  by  1.7  RW
# 14  Iowa State      10.49  10.97  11.17  10.81  11.27  11.56    6  3  @OU  (Mo)   
# 35  Kansas State     7.81   8.85   9.59  10.43  10.21  10.87    6  2   KU  (Tu)   
# 37  Baylor           6.32   7.51   8.33   9.09  10.29  10.83    6  2  @UT  (We)   
# 17  Texas Tech      11.96  12.28  11.39  10.65  11.08  10.71    5  4   WVU (Mo)   TTU by 11.1
# 33  Texas            8.51   8.61   9.04   8.67   9.08   8.78    4  5   BU  (We)   UT  by  3.6
# 34  TCU              9.99  10.05   9.32   9.70   8.97   8.23    3  5   OSU (We)   TCU by  9.0
# 23  Oklahoma        10.61   9.05   8.55   9.18   8.34   7.60    3  6   ISU (Mo)   OU  by  0.6
# 64  West Virginia    6.29   4.07   4.96   4.02   3.82   4.58    2  7  @TTU (Mo)   
# 73  Oklahoma State   5.22   5.60   5.45   4.85   5.05   4.53    2  6  @TCU (We)   

Greenfield took honors for best prognostications in Round 9, marginally over Vegas,
with my trend analysis coming in third.  Greenfield also retains the season lead.

Predictions                                                                                           
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
ISU over UT    6.7   9.0   7.6   7.5   9.5   7.0   7.8   9.6   8.1  10.6   7.0  14.0   8.4  10.7   8.8
KU  over TTU   4.4   5.0   2.6   4.0  -3.5   4.0   2.4  11.2   5.9   4.0   3.0   9.0   2.8   5.1   3.0
OU  over WVU   3.7   5.0   4.4   2.0   7.0   2.0   4.6  14.2   9.4   0.3   2.0   8.0   6.0   3.7   3.8
BU  over TCU   1.7   3.0   2.8   4.5   6.5   4.0   3.6  -2.3  -1.9   4.0  -2.0   5.0   1.3   3.6   7.9
KSU over OSU   1.6   2.0   0.6   3.5   5.0   3.0   0.8  10.5   2.9   2.5   6.0  -4.0   0.4  -1.9   2.2

     Reality  Error                                                                                  
     -------  --1-----------1-----1-----1-----1-----------------------1-----------1-----------------2-
              Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
         5     1.7   4.0   2.6   2.5   4.5   2.0   2.8   4.6   3.1   5.6   2.0   9.0   3.4   5.7   3.8
        16    11.6  11.0  13.4  12.0  19.5  12.0  13.6   4.8  10.1  12.0  13.0   7.0  13.2  10.9  13.0
        -8    11.7  13.0  12.4  10.0  15.0  10.0  12.6  22.2  17.4   8.3  10.0  16.0  14.0  11.7  11.8
        26    24.3  23.0  23.2  21.5  19.5  22.0  22.4  28.3  27.9  22.0  28.0  21.0  24.7  22.4  18.1
        18    16.4  16.0  17.4  14.5  13.0  15.0  17.2   7.5  15.1  15.5  12.0  22.0  17.6  19.9  15.8

total         65.7  67.0  69.0  60.5  71.5  61.0  68.6  67.4  73.6  63.4  65.0  75.0  72.9  70.6  62.5
previous     314.4 339.0 307.1 305.5 323.0 306.5 323.6 487.3 365.0 313.6 390.0 366.0 343.8 357.7 348.0
cumulative   380.1 406.0 376.1 366.0 394.5 367.5 392.2 554.7 438.6 377.0 455.0 441.0 416.7 428.3 410.5
per game       8.8   9.4   8.7   8.5   9.2   8.5   9.1  12.9  10.2   8.8  10.6  10.3   9.7  10.0   9.5

Two road wins had been projected for Round 9, but Oklahoma pulled a Kansas and lost in
Morgantown.  So we're still pretty much bang-on the long-term one in three road win rate.
There is only one road win projected for Round 10, but it would involve Kansas pulling
something off that they haven't been particularly good at pulling off so far this season.

Road wins (14 out of 43)                   Home losses                            Differential (RW-HL)
----------------------------------------   ------------------------------------   --------------------
3 Baylor         OSU WVU OU                0 Kansas                               +2 Baylor        
3 Kansas State   ISU OU  OSU               0 TCU                                  +2 Kansas State  
2 Iowa State     OSU TTU                   1 Baylor         KU                    +1 Iowa State    
2 Texas Tech     WVU UT                    1 Iowa State     KSU                   +1 Kansas        
1 Kansas         BU                        1 Kansas State   UT                    +1 Texas Tech    
1 Oklahoma       OSU                       1 Texas          TTU                    0 TCU           
1 Oklahoma State WVU                       1 Texas Tech     ISU                    0 Texas         
1 Texas          KSU                       2 Oklahoma       KSU BU                -1 Oklahoma      
0 TCU                                      3 West Virginia  TTU OSU BU            -3 Oklahoma State
0 West Virginia                            4 Oklahoma State ISU BU  OU  KSU       -3 West Virginia 

Interesting that Oklahoma sits at the bottom of both the trend and mental toughness ratings.

Performance (points)    Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------   ----------------------    
Iowa State      +1.76   Kansas            8.31    
Baylor          +0.80   West Virginia     9.20    
Texas Tech      +0.76   Texas Tech        9.44    
Texas           +0.18   Iowa State        9.63    
TCU             +0.14   Oklahoma State   10.15    
Oklahoma        -0.36   Texas            11.47    
Kansas          -0.66   Kansas State     11.57    
Oklahoma State  -0.71   Oklahoma         11.67    
Kansas State    -1.41   TCU              12.01    
West Virginia   -2.34   Baylor           14.28    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Baylor          +1.56 +/- 0.39    Baylor          +0.59 +/- 0.26
Kansas State    +0.53 +/- 0.41    Kansas State    +0.47 +/- 0.24
Iowa State      +0.39 +/- 0.32    Texas           +0.37 +/- 0.25
Texas           +0.22 +/- 0.39    Oklahoma State  +0.12 +/- 0.27
TCU             -0.13 +/- 0.44    Iowa State      -0.03 +/- 0.19
West Virginia   -0.15 +/- 0.32    Kansas          -0.03 +/- 0.22
Kansas          -0.28 +/- 0.28    Texas Tech      -0.06 +/- 0.15
Oklahoma State  -0.35 +/- 0.37    TCU             -0.18 +/- 0.29
Texas Tech      -0.52 +/- 0.30    West Virginia   -0.24 +/- 0.21
Oklahoma        -0.54 +/- 0.38    Oklahoma        -0.72 +/- 0.40

As expected, Texas Tech got out of the Strength of Schedule cellar.  A couple of teams had
their Strength of Schedule ratings go up, while their ranking declined slightly.  Kansas
maintains a solid lead over #2 Illinois, who has a rating of 81.64, while #3 Purdue has a
rating of 81.42, and #4 Mighigan State has a rating of 81.22.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
Iowa State      78.41   Texas Tech      58.50   West Virginia   149.14   Iowa State      +12.55   
Kansas          76.14   Kansas State    59.10   Kansas          146.77   Texas Tech      +11.14   
TCU             75.29   Baylor          64.29   Iowa State      144.27   Baylor           +8.33   
West Virginia   73.41   Iowa State      65.86   TCU             143.76   TCU              +6.81   
Baylor          72.62   Texas           67.32   Oklahoma        140.27   Kansas State     +5.62   
Oklahoma        72.45   Oklahoma        67.82   Oklahoma State  139.00   Kansas           +5.50   
Texas           70.73   TCU             68.48   Texas           138.05   Oklahoma         +4.64   
Texas Tech      69.64   Oklahoma State  70.52   Baylor          136.90   Texas            +3.41   
Oklahoma State  68.48   Kansas          70.64   Texas Tech      128.14   Oklahoma State   -2.05   
Kansas State    64.71   West Virginia   75.73   Kansas State    123.81   West Virginia    -2.32   

Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Kansas          83.00 ( 1)
Texas           81.17 ( 5)
Oklahoma        80.76 ( 8)
Oklahoma State  80.43 (11)
West Virginia   78.87 (19)
Kansas State    77.83 (35)
Iowa State      77.90 (31)
Texas Tech      77.80 (36)
TCU             77.70 (38)
Baylor          77.25 (44)