predictions for Texas Tech game

Well, those of you who might have been hoping that Silvio would play today
have had those hopes crushed.  Like a dove.  And adding insult to injury,
or in this case, maybe it's more appropriate to say adding injury to insult,
we have the ankle sprain to Marcus Garrett, so we're down another player for
a critical home game.

Kansas is playing below expectation by an average of 0.6 points while Texas Tech
has been above expectation by an average of 1.1 points; those could reduce the
margin by 1.7 points.  Both teams have been fairly consistent, in the top three
of the Big 12 conference.  Kansas has played 8 out of 21 games below expectation
by enough to lose today.  Texas Tech has played 7 out of 21 games above
expectation by enough to win.  Those correspond to a 65 percent chance of
Kansas winning the game.  Both teams have negative trends and both are
statistcally significant.  Both teams have negative mental toughness ratings,
but neither is statistically significant.  Taken at face value, the trends
would put the margin at 3.0 points in favor of Kansas.  Of course, that's the
average Kansas team, which includes a healthy chunk of Doke and Garrett.

Colley, for which the scaling factor from ratings to points is suspect, has
the most optimistic margin of 11.2 points in favor of Kansas, while Sagarin's
eigenvector analysis is a close second at 10.5 points.  THe only naysayer is
Dunkel, who has picked Texas Tech by 3.5 points.  The average is 4.4 points
in favor of Kansas, in agreement with Sagarin Predcitor, with a scatter of
3.5 points.

Among Greenfield's eight offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in five of
them; Texas Tech has a higher scoring margin (the result of a weaker schedule),
a higher offensive rebound percentage, and attempt slightly more free throws
per field goal attempt.  Among the seven defensive stats, Kansas has the
advantage in four of them, which is surprising, considering how Texas Tech's
claim to fame is its defense; Texas Tech holds opponents to fewer points per
game and a lower effective field goal percentage, and blocks more shots per
game.

Common Opponents
================
There are six common opponents, all in conference, two of which Kansas has
already played twice, giving us eight scores to compare:

KU   -1 WVU on road ( +3 neutral court)
TTU  +3 WVU on road ( +7 neutral court)
KU    0 TTU at home ( -4 neutral court)

KU   +7 OU  at home ( +3 neutral court)
TTU  +7 OU  at home ( +3 neutral court)
KU   +4 TTU at home (  0 neutral court)

KU  -10 UT  on road ( -6 neutral court)     KU   +2 UT  at home ( -2 neutral court)
TTU  +6 UT  on road (+10 neutral court)     TTU  +6 UT  on road (+10 neutral court)
KU  -12 TTU at home (-16 neutral court)     KU   -8 TTU at home (-12 neutral court)

KU   +4 ISU at home (  0 neutral court)     KU  -17 ISU on road (-13 neutral court)
TTU  -4 ISU at home ( -8 neutral court)     TTU  -4 ISU at home ( -8 neutral court)
KU  +12 TTU at home ( +8 neutral court)     KU   -1 TTU at home ( -5 neutral court)

KU   +5 BU  on road ( +9 neutral court)
TTU -11 BU  on road ( -7 neutral court)
KU  +20 TTU at home (+16 neutral court)

KU   +9 TCU at home ( +5 neutral court)
TTU +19 TCU at home (+15 neutral court)
KU   -6 TTU at home (-10 neutral court)

The Baylor road game is the most favorable comparison for Kansas, with the
Iowa State home game second, while the Texas road game is the least
favorable comparison.  The average is 1.1 points in favor of Kansas.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Jarrett Culver (guard)
most points        Jarrett Culver (guard)
most rebounds      Jarrett Culver (guard)
most assists       Jarrett Culver (guard)
most steals        Matt Money (guard)
most blocks        Tariq Owens (forward)
most turnovers     Jarrett Culver (guard)
most fouls         Tariq Owens (forward)

That's perhaps the most one-dimensional team we've played this season.  Control
Culver, and you should be able to control the game.  Unfortunately, the person
perhaps best suited to control culver, namely Garrett, won't likely play due to
a sprained ankle.  No Doke (no joke) and no De Sousa for Kansas.

Texas Tech has no reported injuries.

                                                          16-5            17-4
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Texas Tech
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall         +4.97   69   64                # 10   #  1     # 16   # 49 
Sagarin Predictor       +4.42   69   64      69.1      # 11   #  1     # 18   # 49 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +5.81   69   63                #  9   #  1     # 17   # 49 
Sagarin Recent Games    +1.06   67   66                # 28   #  1     # 22   # 49
Sagarin Eigenvector    +10.54   72   61      82        
Massey                  +5.00   69   64      67        # 13   #  1     # 20   # 42
Pomeroy                 +2.59   65   63                # 16   #  1     # 14   # 60
Greenfield              +4.00   69   65                # 15   #  4     # 17   # 26
Dunkel                  -3.50   66   70                #  5            #  4
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +4.00   69   65                                           
Dolphin Predictive      +2.43   67   64      58.7      # 17   #  5     # 15   # 24
Real Time               +9.00   80   71      70.3      #  5   #  1     # 17   # 59 
Seven Overtimes         +3.00   70   67      79        #  5   #  1     # 33   # 59
DPPI                    +3.30   71   68      64.6      # 15   #  1     # 16   # 61 
ESPN BPI                +4.00                65.0      # 17   #  1     # 15   # 47
Whitlock                +5.89                          #  9   #  1     # 19   # 59
Colley Matrix          +11.22                          #  2   #  1     # 16   # 43
NCAA NET                                               # 20            # 15
common opponents        +1.13                                                     
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                 +4.4    69.4 65.4
scatter                  3.5     3.6  2.8

Here is Kansas' season; the season record projection is down to 23-8, with
projected losses at Texas Tech and at Oklahoma:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  4 Michigan State              92  87    -6.02   +11.02
HOME   # 82 Vermont                     84  68   +13.77    +2.23
HOME   #172 Louisiana                   89  76   +20.97    -7.97
NEUT   # 20 Marquette                   77  68    +1.98    +7.02
NEUT   #  6 Tennessee                   87  81    -2.45    +8.45
HOME   #106 Stanford                    90  84   +15.93    -9.93
HOME   # 57 Wofford                     72  47   +11.40   +13.60
HOME   # 59 New Mexico State            63  60   +11.88    -8.88
HOME   # 15 Villanova                   74  71    +3.88    -0.88
HOME   #208 South Dakota                89  53   +23.91   +12.09
AWAY   # 46 Arizona State               76  80    +3.54    -7.54
HOME   #166 Eastern Michigan            87  63   +20.54    +3.46
HOME   # 24 Oklahoma                    70  63    +6.08    +0.92
AWAY   # 14 Iowa State                  60  77    -2.56   -14.44
HOME   # 28 TCU                         77  68    +6.66    +2.34
AWAY   # 36 Baylor                      73  68    +1.87    +3.13
HOME   # 32 Texas                       80  78    +7.26    -5.26
AWAY   # 71 West Virginia               64  65    +6.59    -7.59
HOME   # 14 Iowa State                  80  76    +3.72    +0.28
AWAY   #  7 Kentucky                    63  71    -5.06    -2.94
AWAY   # 32 Texas                       63  73    +0.98   -10.98
HOME   # 18 Texas Tech                            +4.43             0.691
AWAY   # 35 Kansas State                          +1.77             0.572
HOME   # 70 Oklahoma State                       +12.81             0.923
AWAY   # 28 TCU                                   +0.38             0.516
HOME   # 71 West Virginia                        +12.87             0.936
AWAY   # 18 Texas Tech                            -1.85             0.417
HOME   # 35 Kansas State                          +8.05             0.794
AWAY   # 70 Oklahoma State                        +6.53             0.766
AWAY   # 24 Oklahoma                              -0.20             0.492
HOME   # 36 Baylor                                +8.15             0.765

Here is Texas Tech's season; note the projected losses at Oklahoma, at
TCU, and at Iowa State, in addition to the projected loss today:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #341 Incarnate Word              87  37   +33.99   +16.01
HOME   #350 MVSU(Miss. Valley St.)      84  52   +38.83    -6.83
HOME   #279 SE Louisiana                59  40   +26.45    -7.45
NEUT   # 74 Southern California         78  63    +8.78    +6.22
NEUT   # 17 Nebraska                    70  52    -0.16   +18.16
HOME   #180 Northern Colorado           93  62   +20.48   +10.52
NEUT   # 72 Memphis                     78  67    +8.68    +2.32
HOME   #335 Ark.-Pine Bluff             65  47   +31.86   -13.86
HOME   #340 Northwestern State          79  44   +33.54    +1.46
HOME   #187 Abilene Christian           82  48   +21.03   +12.97
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        58  69   -10.20    -0.80
HOME   #205 UTRGV                       71  46   +22.31    +2.69
AWAY   # 71 West Virginia               62  59    +5.30    -2.30
HOME   # 35 Kansas State                63  57    +6.76    -0.76
HOME   # 24 Oklahoma                    66  59    +4.79    +2.21
AWAY   # 32 Texas                       68  62    -0.31    +6.31
HOME   # 14 Iowa State                  64  68    +2.43    -6.43
AWAY   # 36 Baylor                      62  73    +0.58   -11.58
AWAY   # 35 Kansas State                45  58    +0.48   -13.48
HOME   # 51 Arkansas                    67  64    +9.32    -6.32
HOME   # 28 TCU                         84  65    +5.37   +13.63
AWAY   # 11 Kansas                                -4.43             0.309
HOME   # 71 West Virginia                        +11.58             0.896
AWAY   # 24 Oklahoma                              -1.49             0.445
AWAY   # 70 Oklahoma State                        +5.24             0.706
HOME   # 36 Baylor                                +6.86             0.719
HOME   # 11 Kansas                                +1.85             0.583
HOME   # 70 Oklahoma State                       +11.52             0.883
AWAY   # 28 TCU                                   -0.91             0.465
HOME   # 32 Texas                                 +5.97             0.714
AWAY   # 14 Iowa State                            -3.85             0.347