predictions for Texas game

Another road game, another test (sung to the tune of Cole Porter's "Another
Op'nin' Another Show).  With just a single road win under their collective
belts, the Jayhawks have many naysayers, so let's treat today's game as an
opportunity to silence those naysayers.

It's not expected to be easy; the average predicted margin is just 2.8 points,
with a scatter of 4.2 points, which means I'd recommend trimming your nails
before the game so you have nothing to bite.

Real Time is the most pessimistic with a 4 point loss.  Greenfield, who
usually mimics Vegas pretty well, is predicting a 2 point loss, and the
DPPI calls for a 1 point loss.  The rest are positive for Kansas, the most
optimistic being Colley with a 13.5 point margin (but dubious scaling from
rating to points) and Dunkel with a 9.5 point margin.  Vegas has it as a
1 point margin, according to Dunkel.  Common opponents has it even tighter
than that at 0.4 points, such that the assumed home court advantage matters.
Fortunately, one of the comparisons is neutral/neutral, where the home
court advantage doesn't apply, one is home/home, where the home court
advantage cancels out, no matter what value is used, and another pair is
home/road and road/home, so whatever home court advantage one uses, one
offsets the other.  Indeed, the only case where it matters is in the
head-to-head matchup in Lawrence, where Kansas won by only 2 points.  If
you use Sagarin's 3.1 point home court advantage, then we're looking at only
a 4 point loss in Austin, and the average of the five comparisons becomes
0.8 points in favor of Kansas.  But if you use last season's Big 12 home
court advantage of 5.45 points, then we're looking at a 9 point loss in
Austin, and the average of the five comparisons suddenly becomes 0.2 points
in favor of Texas.

A lot of the uncertainty over today's game stems from Texas being among the
most inconsistent teams in the Big 12.  Are we going to see the team that
played 13 points below expectation in losing to Georgia in the SEC Challenge,
or the team that played almost 23 points above expectation to beat a Wade-less
Kansas State squad?  The other six conference games have been played to within
about 6 points of expectation, and even though that represents a rather small
scatter, it's still enough to make today's game go either way.

The trend for Kansas is still negative, presumably due to the loss of Doke,
and it's statistically significant.  The overall trend for Texas looks positive,
but there is no statistical significance to it.  On the other hand, Texas does
have a positive mental toughness rating of some statistical signficance, while
the value for Kansas is slightly negative, but of no statistical significance.
The trend analysis suggests a 0.9 point loss for Kansas.

But what's really weird is how after today's game, we will have completed the
season series with Texas and Iowa State before having seen either Texas Tech,
Kansas State, or Oklahoma State.  Why the unbalanced schedule?

Among Greenfield's eight offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in six of
them; Texas has a slightly higher offensive rebound percentage and has a
smaller turnover percentage.  Among the seven defensive stats, Kansas has the
advantage in four of them; Texas holds opponents to fewer points per game,
grans more offensive rebounds per game, and blocks more shots per game.

Common Opponents
================
There are four common opponents, three in conference, plus the head-to-head
in Lawrence:

KU   +5 MSU neutral ( +5 neutral court)
UT  -10 MSU neutral (-10 neutral court)
KU  +11 UT  on road (+15 neutral court)

KU   -1 WVU on road ( +3 neutral court)
UT   +7 WVU at home ( +3 neutral court)
KU   -4 UT  on road (  0 neutral court)

KU   +7 OU  at home ( +3 neutral court)
UT   +3 OU  at home ( -1 neutral court)
KU    0 UT  on road ( +4 neutral court)

KU   +9 TCU at home ( +5 neutral court)
UT   -4 TCU on road (  0 neutral court)
KU   +1 UT  on road ( +5 neutral court)

KU   +2 UT  at home ( -2 neutral court)
KU   -6 UT  on road ( -2 neutral court)

The average is 0.4 points in favor of Kansas.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Matt Coleman (guard)
most points        Kerwin Roach Jr. (guard)
most rebounds      Dylan Osetkowski (forward)
most assists       Kerwin Roach Jr. (guard)
most steals        Dylan Osetkowski (forward)
most blocks        Jaxson Hayes (forward)
most turnovers     Kerwin Roach Jr. (guard)
most fouls         Jaxson Hayes (forward)

Texas has no reported injuries.

No Doke (no joke) and no De Sousa for Kansas, though rumors about De Sousa are
swirling once again.

                                                          16-4            11-9
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas           Texas
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall         +2.69   71   68                #  9   #  1     # 37   #  8 
Sagarin Predictor       +1.95   70   68      58.0      # 10   #  1     # 34   #  8 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +3.81   71   68                #  9   #  1     # 38   #  8 
Sagarin Recent Games    +5.46   72   67                # 18   #  1     # 67   #  8
Sagarin Eigenvector     +6.92   73   66      74        
Massey                  +2.00   72   70      57        #  9   #  1     # 45   #  6
Pomeroy                 +0.61   68   68                # 15   #  1     # 35   # 10
Greenfield              -2.00   69.5 71.5              # 10   #  3     # 37   # 15
Dunkel                  +9.50   77   68                #  5            # 46
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +1.00   70   69                                           
Dolphin Predictive      +0.14   70   70      50.5      # 16   #  5     # 36   # 17
Real Time               -4.00   74   78      41.2      #  2   #  1     # 59   #  2 
Seven Overtimes         +6.00   75   69      68        #  4   #  1     # 45   # 10
DPPI                    -1.00   72   73      43        # 10   #  1     # 33   #  7 
ESPN BPI                +0.90                53.5      # 13   #  1     # 38   # 16
Whitlock                +3.21                          #  9   #  1     # 34   #  3
Colley Matrix          +13.54                          #  2   #  1     # 52   #  2
NCAA NET                                               # 17            # 44
common opponents        +0.40                                                     
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                 +2.8    71.8 69.5
scatter                  4.2     2.4  3.0

Here is Kansas' season; the season record projection remains at 24-7, with
a projected loss at Texas Tech:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  4 Michigan State              92  87    -5.47   +10.47
HOME   # 82 Vermont                     84  68   +14.36    +1.64
HOME   #161 Louisiana                   89  76   +20.71    -7.71
NEUT   # 20 Marquette                   77  68    +3.13    +5.87
NEUT   #  6 Tennessee                   87  81    -1.94    +7.94
HOME   #107 Stanford                    90  84   +16.43   -10.43
HOME   # 57 Wofford                     72  47   +12.30   +12.70
HOME   # 56 New Mexico State            63  60   +12.16    -9.16
HOME   # 12 Villanova                   74  71    +4.33    -1.33
HOME   #196 South Dakota                89  53   +23.58   +12.42
AWAY   # 48 Arizona State               76  80    +4.27    -8.27
HOME   #163 Eastern Michigan            87  63   +20.93    +3.07
HOME   # 23 Oklahoma                    70  63    +6.57    +0.43
AWAY   # 15 Iowa State                  60  77    -1.74   -15.26
HOME   # 28 TCU                         77  68    +7.06    +1.94
AWAY   # 37 Baylor                      73  68    +2.40    +2.60
HOME   # 34 Texas                       80  78    +8.17    -6.17
AWAY   # 62 West Virginia               64  65    +6.48    -7.48
HOME   # 15 Iowa State                  80  76    +4.48    -0.48
AWAY   #  9 Kentucky                    63  71    -3.60    -4.40
AWAY   # 34 Texas                                 +1.95             0.580
HOME   # 17 Texas Tech                            +4.72             0.706
AWAY   # 36 Kansas State                          +2.39             0.594
HOME   # 71 Oklahoma State                       +13.34             0.921
AWAY   # 28 TCU                                   +0.84             0.535
HOME   # 62 West Virginia                        +12.70             0.940
AWAY   # 17 Texas Tech                            -1.50             0.432
HOME   # 36 Kansas State                          +8.61             0.804
AWAY   # 71 Oklahoma State                        +7.12             0.774
AWAY   # 23 Oklahoma                              +0.35             0.516
HOME   # 37 Baylor                                +8.62             0.811

Here is Texas' season; notice how their entire conference slate consists
of single-digit predicted margins:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #274 Eastern Illinois            71  59   +22.97   -10.97
HOME   # 50 Arkansas                    73  71    +6.12    -4.12
HOME   #149 ULM                         65  55   +15.32    -5.32
HOME   #250 The Citadel                 97  69   +21.82    +6.18
NEUT   #  5 North Carolina              92  89    -7.62   +10.62
NEUT   #  4 Michigan State              68  78   -10.53    +0.53
HOME   #139 Radford                     59  62   +13.99   -16.99
HOME   # 70 VCU(Va. Commonwealth)       53  54    +8.21    -9.21
HOME   #  8 Purdue                      72  68    -2.68    +6.68
HOME   # 94 Grand Canyon                98  60    +9.78   +28.22
HOME   # 60 Providence                  65  71    +7.35   -13.35
HOME   #176 UT Arlington                76  56   +16.78    +3.22
AWAY   # 36 Kansas State                67  47    -2.67   +22.67
HOME   # 62 West Virginia               61  54    +7.64    -0.64
AWAY   # 71 Oklahoma State              58  61    +2.06    -5.06
HOME   # 17 Texas Tech                  62  68    -0.34    -5.66
AWAY   # 10 Kansas                      78  80    -8.17    +6.17
HOME   # 23 Oklahoma                    75  72    +1.51    +1.49
AWAY   # 28 TCU                         61  65    -4.22    +0.22
AWAY   # 83 Georgia                     88  98    +3.09   -13.09
HOME   # 10 Kansas                                -1.95             0.422
AWAY   # 15 Iowa State                            -6.80             0.267
HOME   # 37 Baylor                                +3.56             0.623
AWAY   # 62 West Virginia                         +1.42             0.556
HOME   # 36 Kansas State                          +3.55             0.620
HOME   # 71 Oklahoma State                        +8.28             0.772
AWAY   # 23 Oklahoma                              -4.71             0.324
AWAY   # 37 Baylor                                -2.66             0.408
HOME   # 15 Iowa State                            -0.58             0.479
AWAY   # 17 Texas Tech                            -6.56             0.266
HOME   # 28 TCU                                   +2.00             0.571