predictions for Kentucky game

Today's game is one of two (currently) projected losses for Kansas through
the end of the regular season (the TCU and Oklahoma road games have been
flopping back and forth over the zero margin dividing line).  The Vegas
line apparently opened at 6 points in favor of Kentucky, but if Team Rankings
is any indication, the line has shrunk to 4.5 points.

There are a couple of exceptions to the "Kentucky is favored" rule.  Colley
has a large enough differential between Kansas and Kentucky to more than
compensate for the home court advantage, favoring Kansas by 5.6 points.  The
more surprising outlier is Sagarin's eigenvector analysis.  The other four
Sagarin variants favor Kentucky by 2 to 6 points, but the eignevectors point
to Kansas by 4.5 points.

The concern, of course, is that Kansas has but a single victory this season
in true road games (Waco).  On the other hand, Kansas has been at its best
in the biggest games (Michigan State, Tennessee), but the Jayhawks also had
Azubuike for those games.

Both teams are playing below expectation, but by only a fraction of a point,
Kansas 0.3 points more than Kentucky.  The big difference is in inconsistency.
Kentucky has been more inconsistent than even the most inconsistent Big 12
team.  That season-opening loss to Duke represents a performance 25 points
below expectation.  Since then, the Wildcats have had seven double-digit
above-expectation performances.  Kansas, on the other hand, is among the
most consistent teams in the country, with just three double-digit above
expectation performances and two double-digit below expectation performances.

Kansas has a negative trend of some statistical significance, which one might
attribute to the loss of Azubuike, while Kentucky has a strong positive trend.
Neither team's mental toughness rating has any statistical significance.
Taken at face value, the trends are strong enough to make Kentucky a 10 point
favorite.

The average of the various prognostications is 3.3 points in favor of Kentucky,
but the scatter is 3.6 points, so Jayhawk fans have some reason for optimism.

One thing is certain:  playing a top ten opponent on the road will help to
solidify Kansas as having played the toughest schedule in all of Division I.
Dolphin and Greenfield are the only ones who demur at this point.

Among Greenfield's eight offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in just one
of them, namely turnover percentage.  Among the seven defensive stats, Kansas
has the advantage in just three of them, steals per game, defensive rebounds
per game, and holding opponents to a lower effective field goal percentage.

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents, as Kentucky has not yet played Tennessee in SEC
conference action.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Tyler Herro (guard)
most points        Keldon Johnson (guard)
most rebounds      P. J. Washington (forward)
most assists       Ashton Hagans (guard)
most steals        Ashton Hagans (guard)
most blocks        Nick Richards (forward)
most turnovers     Quade Green (guard)
most fouls         P. J. Washington (forward)

Guard Zan Payne is out with a knee injury, but he hasn't contributed at all
this season, so Kentucky is accustomed to playing without him.

No Doke (no joke) and no De Sousa for Kansas.

                                                          16-3            15-3
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas         Kentucky
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall         -2.51   72   75                #  8   #  1     #  9   # 40 
Sagarin Predictor       -2.67   72   75      40.2      #  8   #  1     # 10   # 40 
Sagarin Golden Mean     -2.24   72   75                #  7   #  1     #  9   # 40 
Sagarin Recent Games    -6.03   70   76                # 12   #  1     #  5   # 40
Sagarin Eigenvector     +4.52   76   71      67        
Massey                  -5.00   70   75      32        #  8   #  1     #  7   # 15
Pomeroy                 -3.88   68   72                # 13   #  1     # 10   # 44
Greenfield              -6.00   69.5 75.5              #  8   #  4     #  4   # 10
Dunkel                  -4.50   68   73                #  5            # 18
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -6.50   69   75                                           
Dolphin Predictive      -4.74   70   75      34.2      # 15   #  7     # 10   # 17
Real Time               -8.00   73   81      31.3      #  1   #  1     # 13   # 38 
Seven Overtimes         -4.00   72   76      39        #  3   #  1     # 12   # 41
DPPI                    -2.40   75   77      41        #  8   #  1     # 11   # 41 
ESPN BPI                -5.20                31.3      # 12   #  1     # 10   # 30
Whitlock                -1.83                          #  8   #  1     # 10   # 26
Colley Matrix           +5.57                          #  1   #  1     # 16   # 42
NCAA NET                                               # 14            #  8
common opponents                                                                  
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                 -3.3    71.2 75.1
scatter                  3.6     2.4  2.3

Here is Kansas' season; the season record projection remains at 24-7, with
projected losses at Kentucky and Texas Tech:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  4 Michigan State              92  87    -5.73   +10.73
HOME   # 84 Vermont                     84  68   +14.83    +1.17
HOME   #157 Louisiana                   89  76   +20.99    -7.99
NEUT   # 22 Marquette                   77  68    +3.30    +5.70
NEUT   #  6 Tennessee                   87  81    -1.53    +7.53
HOME   #114 Stanford                    90  84   +17.13   -11.13
HOME   # 61 Wofford                     72  47   +12.51   +12.49
HOME   # 59 New Mexico State            63  60   +12.44    -9.44
HOME   # 16 Villanova                   74  71    +5.09    -2.09
HOME   #192 South Dakota                89  53   +23.51   +12.49
AWAY   # 47 Arizona State               76  80    +4.44    -8.44
HOME   #175 Eastern Michigan            87  63   +22.03    +1.97
HOME   # 23 Oklahoma                    70  63    +6.45    +0.55
AWAY   # 17 Iowa State                  60  77    -1.04   -15.96
HOME   # 20 TCU                         77  68    +6.32    +2.68
AWAY   # 42 Baylor                      73  68    +3.53    +1.47
HOME   # 29 Texas                       80  78    +7.45    -5.45
AWAY   # 63 West Virginia               64  65    +6.66    -7.66
HOME   # 17 Iowa State                  80  76    +5.18    -1.18
AWAY   # 10 Kentucky                              -2.68             0.402
AWAY   # 29 Texas                                 +1.23             0.550
HOME   # 18 Texas Tech                            +5.22             0.721
AWAY   # 34 Kansas State                          +1.94             0.578
HOME   # 72 Oklahoma State                       +13.49             0.931
AWAY   # 20 TCU                                   +0.10             0.504
HOME   # 63 West Virginia                        +12.88             0.933
AWAY   # 18 Texas Tech                            -1.00             0.455
HOME   # 34 Kansas State                          +8.16             0.796
AWAY   # 72 Oklahoma State                        +7.27             0.788
AWAY   # 23 Oklahoma                              +0.23             0.511
HOME   # 42 Baylor                                +9.75             0.834

Here is Kentucky's season-to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        84 118    -8.59   -25.41
HOME   #142 Southern Illinois           71  59   +18.99    -6.99
HOME   #259 North Dakota                96  58   +27.41   +10.59
HOME   #329 VMI                         92  82   +32.42   -22.42
HOME   #153 Winthrop                    87  74   +20.20    -7.20
HOME   #307 Tennessee State             77  62   +29.37   -14.37
HOME   #283 Monmouth-NJ                 90  44   +28.29   +17.71
HOME   #105 NC Greensboro               78  61   +15.98    +1.02
NEUT   # 56 Seton Hall                  83  84    +8.82    -9.82
HOME   #101 Utah                        88  61   +15.91   +11.09
NEUT   #  5 North Carolina              80  72    -2.94   +10.94
AWAY   # 19 Louisville                  71  58    -0.84   +13.84
AWAY   # 49 Alabama                     75  77    +4.19    -6.19
HOME   # 92 Texas A&M                   85  74   +15.05    -4.05
HOME   # 74 Vanderbilt                  56  47   +13.35    -4.35
AWAY   # 89 Georgia                     69  49    +8.37   +11.63
AWAY   # 13 Auburn                      82  80    -2.12    +4.12
HOME   # 33 Mississippi State           76  55    +7.72   +13.28
HOME   #  8 Kansas                                +2.68             0.598