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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Big 12 projection, Round 7
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6 years 9 months ago #20720
by asteroid
More shuffing in the middle of the conference, where we have a logjam of comparable
teams. The Texas loss to TCU, coupled with road wins by both Oklahoma and Baylor,
caused the Longhorns to fall two spots into eighth place. Smart's seat is getting
hotter and hotter. Oklahoma and Baylor both moved up one spot. And although both
Texas Tech and Iowa State lost road games to Sunflower State teams, Tech's larger
loss hurt their Sagarin rating by enough to slip below Iowa State into third place.
Init. Rnd 1 Rnd 2 Rnd 3 Rnd 4 Rnd 5 Rnd 6 Rnd 7
Pred Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Conf
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Record
---- -------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------
# 7 Kansas 12.80 13.08 12.07 12.50 12.87 13.01 12.20 12.60 5 2
# 17 Iowa State 10.49 10.85 11.75 11.07 10.07 10.97 11.17 10.81 4 3
# 16 Texas Tech 11.96 12.28 12.35 12.71 13.27 12.28 11.39 10.65 4 3
# 35 Kansas State 7.81 6.43 6.43 6.63 7.59 8.85 9.59 10.43 5 2
# 21 TCU 9.99 9.87 10.00 9.68 9.46 10.05 9.32 9.70 3 3
# 22 Oklahoma 10.61 10.41 10.34 10.10 10.44 9.05 8.55 9.18 3 4
# 44 Baylor 6.32 6.33 6.24 7.06 6.72 7.51 8.33 9.09 4 2
# 30 Texas 8.51 9.83 10.18 9.36 8.73 8.61 9.04 8.67 3 4
# 73 Oklahoma State 5.22 4.82 4.72 5.34 6.30 5.60 5.45 4.85 2 5
# 66 West Virginia 6.29 6.10 5.92 5.55 4.55 4.07 4.96 4.02 1 6
Conference action takes a back seat to ESPN's made-for-television
Big 12 / SEC Challenge on Saturday. Big 12 teams are favored in
eight of the ten contests, though most games are expected to be
within two possessions. The SEC's best against the Big 12's worst
is the most lopsided prediction. I assume that when the schedule
makers put this year's Challenge together, they did not expect
West Virginia to be this bad or Tennessee to be this good. The
SEC's second-best against the Big 12's best is down to the home
court advantage, so Kentucky is favored. Oklahoma is predicted
to have the easiest time of the Big 12 teams, but not if Vandy
plays like they did against Tennessee in their most recent game.
Big XII Team Next Game Prediction
-------------- --------- -----------
Kansas @Ken (Sa) Ken by 2.6
Iowa State @Mis (Sa) ISU by 1.6 RW
Texas Tech Ark (Sa) TTU by 9.6
Kansas State @A&M (Sa) KSU by 4.4 RW
TCU Fla (Sa) TCU by 4.1
Oklahoma Van (Sa) OU by 10.5
Baylor Ala (Sa) BU by 4.1
Texas @Geo (Sa) UT by 4.4 RW
Oklahoma State SC (Sa) OSU by 4.5
West Virginia @Ten (Sa) Ten by 14.3
Yours truly's trend analysis took honors for best prognostications in Round 7, the
first repeat winner of the season. Honorable mention to Whitlock. Colley and the
trend analysis were the only ones to pick all the winners properly. Vegas retains
the season lead marginally over Pomeroy and Greenfield.
Predictions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
KU over ISU 4.7 5.0 3.4 5.0 7.0 5.0 2.2 14.0 5.2 6.0 9.0 10.0 2.9 5.2 1.0
TCU over UT 4.5 4.0 4.0 3.0 4.0 2.0 3.9 7.4 4.8 4.9 8.0 12.0 5.1 7.5 6.4
OU over OSU 3.3 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 3.0 3.3 13.3 6.5 4.3 6.0 5.0 4.1 1.7 3.9
WVU over BU 1.5 1.0 -0.1 3.0 0.0 3.0 -1.8 -0.8 -1.0 2.1 3.0 6.0 -0.4 1.9 -5.1
TTU over KSU 1.2 2.0 1.5 -1.5 9.5 -1.5 2.1 -3.8 1.7 1.7 -1.0 -10.0 3.4 1.0 -2.0
Reality Error
------- --1-----------1-----------1-----1-----------------------1-----------------------------2-
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
4 0.7 1.0 0.6 1.0 3.0 1.0 1.8 10.0 1.2 2.0 5.0 6.0 1.1 1.2 3.0
4 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 0.1 3.4 0.8 0.9 4.0 8.0 1.1 3.5 2.4
9 5.7 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 6.0 5.7 4.3 2.5 4.7 3.0 4.0 4.9 7.3 5.1
-12 13.5 13.0 11.9 15.0 12.0 15.0 10.2 11.2 11.0 14.1 15.0 18.0 11.6 13.9 6.9
-13 14.2 15.0 14.5 11.5 22.5 11.5 15.1 9.2 14.7 14.7 12.0 3.0 16.4 14.0 11.0
total 34.6 34.0 33.0 35.5 45.5 35.5 32.9 38.1 30.2 36.4 39.0 39.0 35.1 39.9 28.4
previous 202.2 232.0 202.0 199.5 207.0 197.5 218.9 357.2 258.1 209.1 267.0 263.0 234.9 248.7 248.2
cumulative 236.8 266.0 235.0 235.0 252.5 233.0 251.8 395.3 288.3 245.5 306.0 302.0 270.0 288.6 276.6
per game 7.0 7.8 6.9 6.9 7.4 6.9 7.4 11.6 8.5 7.2 9.0 8.9 7.9 8.5 8.1
Two road wins were projected for Round 7, and two occurred, though only one of those two was
among the projected ones. Round 8 won't be until after the Big 12 and SEC Challenge. It's
beginning to look like the top of the conference is going to beat up on each other, picking
up road wins only against the bottom of the conference. Of course, Kansas flubbed on one of
those opportunities.
Road wins (12 out of 34) Home losses Differential (RW-HL)
---------------------------------------- ------------------------------------ --------------------
2 Baylor OSU WVU 0 Kansas +1 Baylor
2 Iowa State OSU TTU 0 TCU +1 Iowa State
2 Kansas State ISU OU 1 Baylor KU +1 Kansas
2 Texas Tech WVU UT 1 Iowa State KSU +1 Kansas State
1 Kansas BU 1 Kansas State UT +1 Texas Tech
1 Oklahoma OSU 1 Oklahoma KSU 0 Oklahoma
1 Oklahoma State WVU 1 Texas TTU 0 TCU
1 Texas KSU 1 Texas Tech ISU 0 Texas
0 TCU 3 Oklahoma State ISU BU OU -2 Oklahoma State
0 West Virginia 3 West Virginia TTU OSU BU -3 West Virginia
Oklahoma has taken over as the conference's most consistent team.
Performance (points) Inconsistency (points)
--------------------- ----------------------
Iowa State +1.60 Oklahoma 8.01
Texas Tech +0.85 Kansas 8.23
TCU +0.59 West Virginia 8.93
Oklahoma +0.38 Texas Tech 9.55
Texas +0.03 Iowa State 9.63
Oklahoma State -0.20 Oklahoma State 9.89
Baylor -0.47 TCU 11.08
Kansas -0.66 Texas 11.26
Kansas State -1.31 Kansas State 11.27
West Virginia -2.41 Baylor 11.56
Trend (points per game) Mental toughness
------------------------------ ------------------------------
Baylor +1.24 +/- 0.44 Kansas State +0.50 +/- 0.23
Kansas State +0.68 +/- 0.46 Baylor +0.37 +/- 0.24
TCU +0.62 +/- 0.50 Texas +0.32 +/- 0.26
Texas +0.34 +/- 0.48 Oklahoma State +0.12 +/- 0.26
Iowa State +0.28 +/- 0.41 TCU +0.08 +/- 0.31
Oklahoma -0.21 +/- 0.34 Kansas 0.00 +/- 0.25
Oklahoma State -0.21 +/- 0.42 Texas Tech -0.01 +/- 0.16
West Virginia -0.34 +/- 0.38 Iowa State -0.09 +/- 0.20
Kansas -0.43 +/- 0.34 West Virginia -0.30 +/- 0.24
Texas Tech -0.71 +/- 0.37 Oklahoma -0.45 +/- 0.27
And now the entire conference is in the top 50 in Strength of Schedule.
Average offense (pts) Average defense (pts) Total Points Scoring Margin (pts)
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
Iowa State 78.00 Texas Tech 56.68 West Virginia 148.47 Texas Tech +12.79
TCU 77.50 Kansas State 59.11 Kansas 148.26 Iowa State +12.42
Kansas 77.26 Baylor 64.95 TCU 145.06 TCU +9.94
West Virginia 73.68 Iowa State 65.58 Iowa State 143.58 Baylor +6.56
Oklahoma 73.26 Texas 66.16 Oklahoma 140.58 Kansas +6.26
Baylor 71.50 Oklahoma 67.32 Oklahoma State 139.11 Oklahoma +5.95
Texas 70.16 TCU 67.56 Baylor 136.44 Kansas State +5.47
Texas Tech 69.47 Oklahoma State 70.11 Texas 136.32 Texas +4.00
Oklahoma State 69.00 Kansas 71.00 Texas Tech 126.16 Oklahoma State -1.11
Kansas State 64.58 West Virginia 74.79 Kansas State 123.68 West Virginia -1.11
Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Kansas 81.89 ( 1)
Oklahoma 80.97 ( 3)
Oklahoma State 80.78 ( 5)
Texas 80.22 ( 9)
West Virginia 77.59 (24)
Kansas State 77.59 (25)
Iowa State 77.12 (33)
TCU 76.22 (45)
Baylor 76.17 (47)
Texas Tech 76.11 (49)
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- JRhawk
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6 years 9 months ago #20738
by JRhawk
http://www.big12sports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?ATCLID=211716770
Link shows that the Challenge pairings were announced May 24, 2018. Am guessing they go by prior year's conference standing. Don't know how the SEC chooses which 4 teams will be left out. Auburn was 1st last year and isn't in this year. Tenn was #2, but they were in a preseason event with KU and of course did play them, so probably why not playing KU again. WVU was 3rd last year, but now last, so a bummer for them. LSU is also not in, but are currently 2nd (maybe tied for 1st after their game tomorrow).
Hopefully KU beats UK.
Link shows that the Challenge pairings were announced May 24, 2018. Am guessing they go by prior year's conference standing. Don't know how the SEC chooses which 4 teams will be left out. Auburn was 1st last year and isn't in this year. Tenn was #2, but they were in a preseason event with KU and of course did play them, so probably why not playing KU again. WVU was 3rd last year, but now last, so a bummer for them. LSU is also not in, but are currently 2nd (maybe tied for 1st after their game tomorrow).
Hopefully KU beats UK.
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