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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Iowa State game
- asteroid
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6 years 9 months ago #20666
by asteroid
We're in this critical stretch of six consecutive games for which the predicted
margins are all under 6 points, or just two possessions, and eleven consecutive
games for which the predicted margins are all under 8 points, or just three
possessions, which means it's not difficult for the outcome to go either way.
I've seen too many "sky is falling" remarks after the road loss to West Virginia.
Reminds me of the Topeka YMCA game in Fort Worth a few years ago. The usual
retort is that tihs time it's different because Doke is out for the rest of the
season. Okay, that's true, but just two years ago, the Jayhawks also lost Doke
for the rest of the season, so we're not exactly in uncharted territory here.
The concern for today's game, obviously, is the 17 point drubbing that Kansas
received in Ames. Well, keep in mind that last season, Texas went to Morgantown
and lost by 35 points. At home, they beat West Virginia by 8. Iowa State went
to Lubbock and lost by 18. At home, they beat Texas Tech by 18. Kansas went to
Norman and lost by 5 points. At home, they beat Oklahoma by 30. Need I say more?
Iowa State is performing an average of 1.5 points above expectation, while Kansas
is averaging 0.4 points below expectation. Those would combine to reduce the
margin for Kansas to just 2.9 points. But keep in mind that the home court
advantage in the Big 12 tends to be larger than the national average, which
boosts the margin back to 5.2 points.
In six conference games, Kansas has played above expectation in three and below
expectation in three. But even the least below expectation game was more than
the best above expectation game. That's probably the no Doke effect. The
overall trend for Kansas is negative, and there is some statistical significance
to it. Again, that's probably the no Doke effect. Meanwhile, the trend for
Iowa State is positive, though not of statistical significance. Neither team's
mental toughness rating is statistically significant. But if you take those
trend numbers at face value, the margin for Kansas drops to a nail-biting 1.0
points, the most pessimistic prediction. Common opponents is the next most
pessimistic at just 1.5 points. Colley is the most optimistic, with a 14.0 point
Kansas win, and Real Time has the margin at 10.0 points. The average is 6 points.
Among Greenfield's eight offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in just three
of them, namely total rebounds per game, offensive rebound percentage, and free
throws attempted per field goal attempt. Among the seven defensive stats, Kansas
has the advantage in just two of them, namely offensive and defensive rebounds
per game.
Common Opponents
================
There is just one common opponent, plus the head-to-head in Ames:
KU +5 BU on road ( +9 neutral court)
ISU -3 BU on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU +12 ISU at home ( +8 neutral court)
KU -17 ISU on road (-13 neutral court)
KU -9 ISU at home (-13 neutral court)
Quite a difference between the two. The average is 1.5 points in favor of
Kansas.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Tyrese Haliburton (guard)
most points Marial Shayok (guard)
most rebounds Michael Jacobson (forward)
most assists Tyrese Haliburton (guard)
most steals Tyrese Haliburton (guard)
most blocks Cameron Lard (forward)
most turnovers Marial Shayok (guard)
most fouls Cameron Lard (forward)
Forward Solomon Young is out with a severe groin injury, but he avergaed only
6.8 minutes per game, which is 12th on the team.
No Doke (no joke) and no De Sousa for Kansas. At some point, one would think
that Kansas would state that De Sousa is out for the entire season, if that was
the case. But as long as there is some hope that his eligibility will be
reinstated, then it would be in the Jayhawks' best interest to keep that a
secret until he appeared in a game, most likely with the opponent not having
scouted him, giving Kansas an advantage. So maybe we'll all be surprised at
some point this season, but don't hold your breath.
15-3 14-4
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Iowa State
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============= =============
Sagarin Overall +4.96 73 68 # 8 # 1 # 15 # 41
Sagarin Predictor +4.69 73 69 69.5 # 9 # 1 # 15 # 41
Sagarin Golden Mean +6.91 74 67 # 7 # 1 # 15 # 41
Sagarin Recent Games +2.87 72 69 # 17 # 1 # 15 # 41
Sagarin Eigenvector +9.24 76 66
Massey +5.00 75 70 67 # 8 # 1 # 23 # 33
Pomeroy +3.37 73 70 # 11 # 1 # 14 # 55
Greenfield +5.00 77 72 # 7 # 4 # 15 # 28
Dunkel +7.00 72.5 65.5 # 5 # 33
Vegas (via Dunkel) +5.00 76 71
Dolphin Predictive +2.24 73 71 # 17 # 5 # 13 # 28
Real Time +10.00 82 72 73.9 # 1 # 1 # 12 # 50
Seven Overtimes +9.00 77 68 70 # 4 # 1 # 25 # 31
DPPI +5.30 75 69 76.3 # # # #
ESPN BPI +6.00 72.2 # 12 # 2 # 14 # 54
Whitlock +5.19 # 8 # 1 # 14 # 46
Colley Matrix +14.04 # 1 # 1 # 26 # 40
NCAA NET # 19 # 18
common opponents +1.50
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +6.0 74.9 69.1
scatter 3.1 2.6 2.1
Here is Kansas' season; the season record projection remains at 24-7, with
projected losses at Kentucky, TCU, and Texas Tech:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 4 Michigan State 92 87 -4.74 +9.74
HOME # 81 Vermont 84 68 +14.10 +1.90
HOME #158 Louisiana 89 76 +20.72 -7.72
NEUT # 26 Marquette 77 68 +3.51 +5.49
NEUT # 5 Tennessee 87 81 -1.77 +7.77
HOME #111 Stanford 90 84 +16.45 -10.45
HOME # 55 Wofford 72 47 +11.48 +13.52
HOME # 53 New Mexico State 63 60 +11.43 -8.43
HOME # 17 Villanova 74 71 +5.64 -2.64
HOME #194 South Dakota 89 53 +23.32 +12.68
AWAY # 51 Arizona State 76 80 +5.23 -9.23
HOME #155 Eastern Michigan 87 63 +20.51 +3.49
HOME # 27 Oklahoma 70 63 +6.73 +0.27
AWAY # 15 Iowa State 60 77 -1.49 -15.51
HOME # 19 TCU 77 68 +5.98 +3.02
AWAY # 45 Baylor 73 68 +3.87 +1.13
HOME # 28 Texas 80 78 +7.18 -5.18
AWAY # 57 West Virginia 64 65 +5.42 -6.42
HOME # 15 Iowa State +4.69 0.695
AWAY # 14 Kentucky -1.76 0.429
AWAY # 28 Texas +1.00 0.540
HOME # 13 Texas Tech +4.34 0.688
AWAY # 38 Kansas State +2.44 0.598
HOME # 70 Oklahoma State +12.80 0.914
AWAY # 19 TCU -0.20 0.492
HOME # 57 West Virginia +11.60 0.911
AWAY # 13 Texas Tech -1.84 0.418
HOME # 38 Kansas State +8.62 0.811
AWAY # 70 Oklahoma State +6.62 0.760
AWAY # 27 Oklahoma +0.55 0.526
HOME # 45 Baylor +10.05 0.842
Here is Iowa State's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #329 Alabama State 79 53 +30.98 -4.98
HOME # 74 Missouri 76 59 +11.86 +5.14
HOME #221 Texas Southern 85 73 +23.47 -11.47
NEUT # 40 Arizona 66 71 +4.25 -9.25
NEUT # 87 Illinois 84 68 +9.71 +6.29
NEUT #105 San Diego State 87 57 +11.44 +18.56
HOME #195 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha) 82 55 +21.76 +5.24
HOME #209 North Dakota State 81 59 +22.53 -0.53
AWAY # 37 Iowa 84 98 +0.61 -14.61
HOME #338 Southern U. 101 65 +33.13 +2.87
NEUT #124 Drake 77 68 +12.98 -3.98
HOME #299 Eastern Illinois 101 53 +27.64 +20.36
AWAY # 70 Oklahoma State 69 63 +5.02 +0.98
HOME # 9 Kansas 77 60 +1.49 +15.51
AWAY # 45 Baylor 70 73 +2.27 -5.27
HOME # 38 Kansas State 57 58 +7.02 -8.02
AWAY # 13 Texas Tech 68 64 -3.44 +7.44
HOME # 70 Oklahoma State 72 59 +11.20 +1.80
AWAY # 9 Kansas -4.69 0.305
AWAY # 41 Mississippi +1.30 0.549
HOME # 57 West Virginia +10.00 0.856
HOME # 28 Texas +5.58 0.699
AWAY # 27 Oklahoma -1.05 0.455
HOME # 19 TCU +4.38 0.658
AWAY # 38 Kansas State +0.84 0.532
HOME # 45 Baylor +8.45 0.785
AWAY # 19 TCU -1.80 0.433
HOME # 27 Oklahoma +5.13 0.710
AWAY # 28 Texas -0.60 0.478
AWAY # 57 West Virginia +3.82 0.658
HOME # 13 Texas Tech +2.74 0.612
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, hairyhawk, gorillahawk, Socalhawk, jaythawk1
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