Big 12 projection, Round 6

Kansas State's win over TCU, coupled with Oklahoma's loss to Texas, enabled the Wildcats
to leapfrog both TCU and Oklahoma, while Texas leapfrogged only Oklahoma.  That is,
Oklahoma moved down two spots while TCU moved down only one spot.  No other changes,
perhaps somewhat surprisingly.  Kansas remains in the lead, thanks to Texas Tech also
losing.

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2  Rnd 3  Rnd 4  Rnd 5  Rnd 6
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  9  Kansas          12.80  13.08  12.07  12.50  12.87  13.01  12.20    4  2   ISU (Mo)   KU  by  4.7
# 13  Texas Tech      11.96  12.28  12.35  12.71  13.27  12.28  11.39    4  2  @KSU (Tu)   TTU by  1.2  RW
# 15  Iowa State      10.49  10.85  11.75  11.07  10.07  10.97  11.17    4  2  @KU  (Mo)   
# 37  Kansas State     7.81   6.43   6.43   6.63   7.59   8.85   9.59    4  2   TTU (Tu)   
# 19  TCU              9.99   9.87  10.00   9.68   9.46  10.05   9.32    2  3   UT  (We)   TCU by  4.3
# 29  Texas            8.51   9.83  10.18   9.36   8.73   8.61   9.04    3  3  @TCU (We)   
# 27  Oklahoma        10.61  10.41  10.34  10.10  10.44   9.05   8.55    2  4  @OSU (We)   OU  by  3.0  RW
# 45  Baylor           6.32   6.33   6.24   7.06   6.72   7.51   8.33    3  2  @WVU (Mo)   
# 70  Oklahoma State   5.22   4.82   4.72   5.34   6.30   5.60   5.45    2  4   OU  (We)   
# 57  West Virginia    6.29   6.10   5.92   5.55   4.55   4.07   4.96    1  5   BU  (Mo)   WVU by  1.5

Dunkel took honors for best prognostications in Round 6.  He's the only one who predicted
that both Texas Tech and TCU would lose their road games, and he also predicted the smallest
margin of victory for Kansas, which of course meant he had the smallest error in that game.
Vegas retains the season lead.

Predictions                                                                                           
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
ISU over OSU  11.2  11.0  11.9  12.0  16.0  12.5  12.5  10.3  13.7  16.2  12.0  18.0  13.2  15.6  14.3
KU  over WVU   6.1   8.0   7.3   5.0   2.0   6.0   7.7  25.1   7.3   4.6  11.0   4.0   8.5   6.1   7.9
TTU over BU    3.6   6.0   3.9   4.5  -2.5   4.0   3.7  15.2   7.3   3.2   4.0   2.0   5.6   3.2  -2.1
UT  over OU    2.5   2.0   3.0   3.5   2.0   5.0   2.5  -9.7   0.0   3.2   1.0   7.0   1.5   3.8   6.2
TCU over KSU   0.5   2.0   0.7  -2.5  -2.5  -3.0   1.7   0.8   1.5  -1.3   8.0  -6.0   2.8   0.4   5.6

     Reality  Error                                                                                  
     -------  --1-----------1-----------1-----1-----------------------1-----------------------------1-
              Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
        13     1.8   2.0   1.1   1.0   3.0   0.5   0.5   2.7   0.7   3.2   1.0   5.0   0.2   2.6   1.3
        -1     7.1   9.0   8.3   6.0   3.0   7.0   8.7  26.1   8.3   5.6  12.0   5.0   9.5   7.1   8.9
       -11    14.6  17.0  14.9  15.5   8.5  15.0  14.7  26.2  18.3  14.2  15.0  13.0  16.6  14.2   8.9
         3     0.5   1.0   0.0   0.5   1.0   2.0   0.5  12.7   3.0   0.2   2.0   4.0   1.5   0.8   3.2
       -10    10.5  12.0  10.7   7.5   7.5   7.0  11.7  10.8  11.5   8.7  18.0   4.0  12.8  10.4  15.6

total         34.5  41.0  35.0  30.5  23.0  31.5  36.1  78.5  41.8  31.9  48.0  31.0  40.6  35.1  37.9
previous     167.7 191.0 167.0 169.0 184.0 166.0 182.8 278.7 216.3 177.2 219.0 232.0 194.3 213.6 210.3
cumulative   202.2 232.0 202.0 199.5 207.0 197.5 218.9 357.2 258.1 209.1 267.0 263.0 234.9 248.7 248.2
per game       7.0   8.0   7.0   6.9   7.1   6.8   7.5  12.3   8.9   7.2   9.2   9.1   8.1   8.6   8.6

Three road wins were projected for Round 6, but none of them occurred, leaving us right about
bang on the long-term average of one in three.  Two road wins are projected for Round 7, but
both are predicted to be one-possession games, meaning they could go either way.

Road wins (10 out of 29)                   Home losses                            Differential (RW-HL)
----------------------------------------   ------------------------------------   --------------------
2 Iowa State     OSU TTU                   0 Kansas                               +1 Iowa State    
2 Kansas State   ISU OU                    0 TCU                                  +1 Kansas        
2 Texas Tech     WVU UT                    1 Texas Tech     ISU                   +1 Kansas State  
1 Baylor         OSU                       1 Baylor         KU                    +1 Texas Tech    
1 Kansas         BU                        1 Iowa State     KSU                    0 Baylor        
1 Oklahoma State WVU                       1 Kansas State   UT                     0 TCU           
1 Texas          KSU                       1 Oklahoma       KSU                    0 Texas         
0 Oklahoma                                 1 Texas          TTU                   -1 Oklahoma      
0 TCU                                      2 Oklahoma State ISU BU                -1 Oklahoma State
0 West Virginia                            2 West Virginia  TTU OSU               -2 West Virginia 

The two conference leaders are at the bottom of the pack in terms of trend, which
suggests that the race may tighten even further.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Iowa State      +1.44    Kansas            8.40    
Texas Tech      +0.92    Oklahoma          8.50    
Oklahoma        +0.71    West Virginia     8.82    
TCU             +0.60    Texas Tech        9.27    
Texas           -0.27    Iowa State       10.04    
Kansas          -0.37    Oklahoma State   10.26    
Oklahoma State  -0.57    Kansas State     11.01    
Baylor          -0.59    Baylor           11.42    
Kansas State    -1.30    Texas            11.44    
West Virginia   -2.56    TCU              11.48    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Baylor          +1.22 +/- 0.49    Kansas State    +0.45 +/- 0.24
TCU             +0.70 +/- 0.56    Baylor          +0.33 +/- 0.23
Kansas State    +0.54 +/- 0.50    Texas           +0.32 +/- 0.28
Texas           +0.46 +/- 0.52    Oklahoma State  +0.14 +/- 0.28
Iowa State      +0.29 +/- 0.46    TCU             +0.07 +/- 0.34
Oklahoma State  -0.15 +/- 0.48    Texas Tech      +0.05 +/- 0.16
West Virginia   -0.26 +/- 0.41    Kansas          -0.05 +/- 0.26
Oklahoma        -0.35 +/- 0.39    Iowa State      -0.08 +/- 0.23
Kansas          -0.48 +/- 0.37    West Virginia   -0.33 +/- 0.24
Texas Tech      -0.57 +/- 0.41    Oklahoma        -0.44 +/- 0.30

Everybody is now in the top 18 percent of Division I in Strength of Schedule.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
TCU             78.35   Texas Tech      56.72   West Virginia   147.94   Texas Tech      +14.00   
Iowa State      78.00   Kansas State    59.78   Kansas          147.83   Iowa State      +13.11   
Kansas          77.22   Baylor          64.59   TCU             146.18   TCU             +10.53   
West Virginia   73.83   Iowa State      64.89   Iowa State      142.89   Kansas           +6.61   
Oklahoma        73.33   Texas           66.33   Oklahoma        141.11   Baylor           +6.00   
Texas Tech      70.72   Oklahoma        67.78   Oklahoma State  139.56   Oklahoma         +5.56   
Baylor          70.59   TCU             67.82   Texas           136.89   Kansas State     +5.28   
Texas           70.56   Oklahoma State  70.00   Baylor          135.18   Texas            +4.22   
Oklahoma State  69.56   Kansas          70.61   Texas Tech      127.44   West Virginia    -0.28   
Kansas State    65.06   West Virginia   74.11   Kansas State    124.83   Oklahoma State   -0.44   

Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Kansas          81.67 ( 1)
Oklahoma        80.84 ( 2)
Oklahoma State  80.42 ( 4)
Texas           79.43 (10)
West Virginia   77.46 (22)
Kansas State    76.96 (27)
Iowa State      76.22 (40)
TCU             75.78 (50)
Baylor          75.47 (56)
Texas Tech      74.84 (65)