predictions for West Virginia game

West Virginia is one of those teams that is very dependent on a single player.
For example, Kansas State appears like a contender with Wade Davis playing,
but doesn't appear to be much of a threat without him.  Similarly, West Virginia
has been fairly dreadful without Sagaba Konate, but is substantially more
competitive with him.  So the burning question is, will he play against Kansas
on Saturday or not?  Speculation is that he could be out for the rest of the
season, in which case an appearance on Saturday would be unexpected.  On the
other hand, I wouldn't put it past Bob Huggins to keep Konate's recovery
schedule a secret and have him appear in an unexpected fashion, in hopes of
catching the opponent off guard.  So let's just say that it's unlikely that
Konate will play, but it's by no means guaranteed that he won't play.

Predicted margins are all over the place.  Colley, whose ratings are not only
out of date by almost a week, but also the scaling of which is somewhat suspect,
has Kansas with a 25 point margin.  At the other extreme, Dunkel has Kansas with
just a 2 point margin.  Real Time has the margin for Kansas at 4 points, while
ESPN's BPI has it at 4.6 points.  The average of the various prognostications is
9 points, with a scatter of 5 points.

Kansas and West Virginia are the Big 12's most consistent teams.  The Jayhawks
have played only two games more than 9 points below expectation, while the
Mountaineers have played only one game more than 9 points above expectation.
These would make the probability of a Kansas victory at more than 90 percent.

Meanwhile, both teams are at the bottom of the conference in terms of trend,
which are of only marginal statistical significance.  West Virginia has a
negative mental toughness rating, and it is statistically significant.  Kansas,
on the other hand, is effectively neutral in terms of mental toughmess.  Taken
at face value, Kansas would be favored by 8 points.

Among Greenfield's eight offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in five of
them; West Virginia grabs more total rebounds pre game, has a higher offensive
rebound percentage, and attempts more free throw per field goal attempt.  Among
the seven defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in five of them; West
Virginia grabs more offensive rebounds per game and blocks more shots per game.

Common Opponents
================
There are two common opponents, both in conference:

KU   +2 UT  at home ( -2 neutral court)
WVU  -7 UT  on road ( -3 neutral court)
KU   -3 WVU on road ( +1 neutral court)

KU   +9 TCU at home ( +5 neutral court)
WVU -31 TCU on road (-27 neutral court)
KU  +28 WVU on road (+32 neutral court)

Quite a difference between the two.  The average is 12.5 points in favor of
Kansas.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Esa Ahmad (forward)
most points        Sagaba Konate (forward)
most rebounds      Derek Culver (forward)
most assists       James Bolden (guard)
most steals        James Bolden (guard)
most blocks        Sagaba Konate (forward)
most turnovers     Esa Ahmad (forward)
most fouls         Sagaba Konate (forward)

Forward Sagaba Konate has been out with a right knee injury, and possibly will
continue to be out for the rest of the season, but I wouldn't put it past
Huggins to surprise Kansas with his return.

No Doke (no joke) and no De Sousa for Kansas.

                                                          15-2             8-9
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       West Virginia
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall         +6.77   78   71                #  8   #  1     # 63   # 28 
Sagarin Predictor       +6.05   77   71       75.7     #  9   #  1     # 61   # 28 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +8.22   78   70                #  7   #  1     # 61   # 28 
Sagarin Recent Games   +12.46   80   68                #  9   #  1     #132   # 28
Sagarin Eigenvector    +14.89   82   67       89       
Massey                  +8.00   81   73       76       #  7   #  1     #107   # 36
Pomeroy                 +7.28   79   71                #  9   #  1     # 78   # 29
Greenfield              +5.00   77.5 72.5              #  9   #  3     # 64   # 42
Dunkel                  +2.00   74.5 72.5              #  5            # 28                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +6.00   78   72                                           
Dolphin Predictive      +7.72   80   72       74.0     # 14   #  5     # 98   # 55
Real Time               +4.00   79   75       60.3     #  1   #  1     #134   # 22 
Seven Overtimes        +11.00   80   69       87       #  2   #  1     # 55   # 39
DPPI                   +12.20   78   66       88.8     #  7   #  1     #113   # 21
ESPN BPI                +4.60                          # 11   #  3     # 66   # 29
Whitlock               +12.24                          #  7   #  1     # 97   # 22
Colley Matrix          +25.06                          #  1   #  1     #127   # 33
NCAA NET                                               # 11            #100
common opponents       +12.50                                                 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                 +9.2    78.7 70.4
scatter                  5.3     1.9  2.2

Here is Kansas' season; the season record projection remains at 24-7, with
projected losses at Kentucky, TCU, and Texas Tech:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  4 Michigan State              92  87    -4.46    +9.46
HOME   # 85 Vermont                     84  68   +14.67    +1.33
HOME   #160 Louisiana                   89  76   +20.81    -7.81
NEUT   # 26 Marquette                   77  68    +3.90    +5.10
NEUT   #  5 Tennessee                   87  81    -2.00    +8.00
HOME   #114 Stanford                    90  84   +17.11   -11.11
HOME   # 53 Wofford                     72  47   +11.62   +13.38
HOME   # 54 New Mexico State            63  60   +11.78    -8.78
HOME   # 17 Villanova                   74  71    +5.92    -2.92
HOME   #193 South Dakota                89  53   +23.28   +12.72
AWAY   # 59 Arizona State               76  80    +5.97    -9.97
HOME   #154 Eastern Michigan            87  63   +20.68    +3.32
HOME   # 25 Oklahoma                    70  63    +6.93    +0.07
AWAY   # 15 Iowa State                  60  77    -1.10   -15.90
HOME   # 16 TCU                         77  68    +5.76    +3.24
AWAY   # 48 Baylor                      73  68    +4.61    +0.39
HOME   # 29 Texas                       80  78    +7.52    -5.52
AWAY   # 61 West Virginia                         +6.05             0.757
HOME   # 15 Iowa State                            +5.10             0.704
AWAY   # 14 Kentucky                              -1.25             0.450
AWAY   # 29 Texas                                 +1.32             0.551
HOME   # 12 Texas Tech                            +4.10             0.680
AWAY   # 42 Kansas State                          +3.19             0.627
HOME   # 71 Oklahoma State                       +13.16             0.914
AWAY   # 16 TCU                                   -0.44             0.483
HOME   # 61 West Virginia                        +12.25             0.921
AWAY   # 12 Texas Tech                            -2.10             0.405
HOME   # 42 Kansas State                          +9.39             0.830
AWAY   # 71 Oklahoma State                        +6.96             0.765
AWAY   # 25 Oklahoma                              +0.73             0.533
HOME   # 48 Baylor                               +10.81             0.860

Here is West Virginia's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   # 33 Buffalo                     94  99    -0.84    -4.16
NEUT   #275 Monmouth-NJ                 71  53   +16.04    +1.96
NEUT   #107 Western Kentucky            57  63    +4.21   -10.21
NEUT   #142 Saint Joseph's-Pa.          97  90    +7.41    -0.41
HOME   #168 Valparaiso                  88  76   +12.40    -0.40
HOME   #145 Rider                       92  78   +10.90    +3.10
HOME   #288 Youngstown State           106  72   +19.98   +14.02
NEUT   # 27 Florida                     56  66    -5.23    -4.77
HOME   # 72 Pittsburgh                  69  59    +4.16    +5.84
NEUT   #101 Rhode Island                70  83    +3.90   -16.90
HOME   #123 Jacksonville State          74  72    +8.66    -6.66
HOME   #151 Lehigh                      78  68   +11.21    -1.21
HOME   # 12 Texas Tech                  59  62    -5.05    +2.05
AWAY   # 29 Texas                       54  61    -7.83    +0.83
AWAY   # 42 Kansas State                69  71    -5.96    +3.96
HOME   # 71 Oklahoma State              77  85    +4.01   -12.01
AWAY   # 16 TCU                         67  98    -9.59   -21.41
HOME   #  9 Kansas                                -6.05             0.243
HOME   # 48 Baylor                                +1.66             0.566
AWAY   #  5 Tennessee                            -14.25             0.011
AWAY   # 15 Iowa State                           -10.25             0.142
HOME   # 25 Oklahoma                              -2.22             0.401
AWAY   # 12 Texas Tech                           -11.25             0.100
HOME   # 29 Texas                                 -1.63             0.437
AWAY   #  9 Kansas                               -12.25             0.079
HOME   # 42 Kansas State                          +0.24             0.510
AWAY   # 48 Baylor                                -4.54             0.326
HOME   # 16 TCU                                   -3.39             0.369
AWAY   # 25 Oklahoma                              -8.42             0.170
HOME   # 15 Iowa State                            -4.05             0.336
AWAY   # 71 Oklahoma State                        -2.19             0.411