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Big 12 projection, Round 5

  • asteroid
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5 years 2 months ago #20609 by asteroid
Kansas State's upset win in Norman, coupled with the expected loss to Kansas by Texas,
enabled the Wildcats to leapfrog the Longhorns into sixth place.  That home loss by
Oklahoma, coupled with wins by Iowa State and TCU, caused the Sooners to fall two
spots into fifth place, while the Cyclones and Horned Frogs each moved up a slot.
Lastly, Texas Tech's home loss not only cost them the projected 0.7 of a win, but
another 0.3 projected wins as a result of their lower Sagarin Predictor rating, which
enabled Kansas to ascend to the top spot.

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2  Rnd 3  Rnd 4  Rnd 5
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  9  Kansas          12.80  13.08  12.07  12.50  12.87  13.01    4  1  @WVU (Sa)   KU  by  6.1  RW
# 12  Texas Tech      11.96  12.28  12.35  12.71  13.27  12.28    4  1  @BU  (Sa)   TTU by  3.6  RW
# 14  Iowa State      10.49  10.85  11.75  11.07  10.07  10.97    3  2   OSU (Sa)   ISU by 11.2
# 16  TCU              9.99   9.87  10.00   9.68   9.46  10.05    2  2  @KSU (Sa)   TCU by  0.6  RW
# 23  Oklahoma        10.61  10.41  10.34  10.10  10.44   9.05    2  3  @UT  (Sa)   
# 41  Kansas State     7.81   6.43   6.43   6.63   7.59   8.85    3  2   TCU (Sa)   
# 30  Texas            8.51   9.83  10.18   9.36   8.73   8.61    2  3   OU  (Sa)   UT  by  2.5
# 48  Baylor           6.32   6.33   6.24   7.06   6.72   7.51    2  2   TTU (Sa)   
# 71  Oklahoma State   5.22   4.82   4.72   5.34   6.30   5.60    2  3  @ISU (Sa)   
# 60  West Virginia    6.29   6.10   5.92   5.55   4.55   4.07    0  5   KU  (Sa)   

Yours truly's trend analysis took honors for best prognostications in Round 5.
Honorable mention to Dunkel for being the only one to predict the Kansas State
upset of Oklahoma.  Dunkel, ESPN's BPI, and my trend analsysis all predicted
the Baylor upset of Oklahoma State.  Vegas retains the season lead.

Predictions                                                                                           
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
KU  over UT    8.0   9.0   7.7   6.5  12.5   8.0   6.7  13.4  10.3  10.3  10.0  12.0   8.2  10.5   3.2
TCU over WVU   7.7  10.0   9.1   6.5   5.5   8.0  10.5  20.7  12.5   8.9   7.0  18.0  10.5  12.9  14.0
OU  over KSU   7.4  10.0   7.7   5.0  -1.0   5.5   9.6  12.7  11.2   7.9   8.0   9.0  10.4  12.8  10.3
TTU over ISU   4.9   9.0   5.7   5.0  10.5   5.0   5.3  12.6   7.3   7.4   7.0  14.0   5.0   7.3   4.1
OSU over BU    1.3   3.0   1.2   3.0  -2.0   3.0   0.8   2.7   2.3  -1.2   6.0   8.0   1.7   4.0  -3.9

     Reality  Error                                                                                  
     -------  --1-----------1-----------------1-----------------------1-----------------------------1-
              Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
         2     6.0   7.0   5.7   4.5  10.5   6.0   4.7  11.4   8.3   8.3   8.0  10.0   6.2   8.5   1.2
        31    23.3  21.0  21.9  24.5  25.5  23.0  20.5  10.3  18.5  22.1  24.0  13.0  20.5  18.1  17.0
       -13    20.4  23.0  20.7  18.0  12.0  18.5  22.6  25.7  24.2  20.9  21.0  22.0  23.4  25.8  23.3
        -4     8.9  13.0   9.7   9.0  14.5   9.0   9.3  16.6  11.3  11.4  11.0  18.0   9.0  11.3   8.1
        -5     6.3   8.0   6.2   8.0   3.0   8.0   5.8   7.7   7.3   3.8  11.0  13.0   6.7   9.0   1.1

total         64.9  72.0  64.2  64.0  65.5  64.5  62.9  71.7  69.6  66.5  75.0  76.0  65.8  72.7  50.7
previous     102.8 119.0 102.8 105.0 118.5 101.5 119.9 207.0 146.7 110.7 144.0 156.0 128.5 140.9 159.6
cumulative   167.7 191.0 167.0 169.0 184.0 166.0 182.8 278.7 216.3 177.2 219.0 232.0 194.3 213.6 210.3
per game       7.0   8.0   7.0   7.0   7.7   6.9   7.6  11.6   9.0   7.4   9.1   9.7   8.1   8.9   8.8

No road wins are projected for Round 5, but three occurred, leaving us two ahead of the
long-term average of one in three.  Three more are projected for Round 6, though one of
those is a toss-up.

Road wins (10 out of 24)                   Home losses                            Differential (RW-HL)
----------------------------------------   ------------------------------------   --------------------
2 Iowa State     OSU TTU                   0 Kansas                               +1 Iowa State    
2 Kansas State   ISU OU                    0 TCU                                  +1 Kansas        
2 Texas Tech     WVU UT                    1 Texas Tech     ISU                   +1 Kansas State  
1 Baylor         OSU                       1 Baylor         KU                    +1 Texas Tech    
1 Kansas         BU                        1 Iowa State     KSU                    0 Baylor        
1 Oklahoma State WVU                       1 Kansas State   UT                     0 TCU           
1 Texas          KSU                       1 Oklahoma       KSU                    0 Texas         
0 Oklahoma                                 1 Texas          TTU                   -1 Oklahoma      
0 TCU                                      2 Oklahoma State ISU BU                -1 Oklahoma State
0 West Virginia                            2 West Virginia  TTU OSU               -2 West Virginia 

West Virginia's inconsistency jumped again, and is now tied with Kansas for best in the conference.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Iowa State      +1.44    Kansas            8.68    
Texas Tech      +1.15    West Virginia     8.68    
TCU             +0.79    Texas Tech        8.85    
Oklahoma        +0.75    Oklahoma          8.94    
Kansas          -0.30    Iowa State       10.37    
Texas           -0.31    Oklahoma State   10.57    
Oklahoma State  -0.61    Kansas State     10.84    
Baylor          -0.78    Baylor           11.20    
Kansas State    -1.48    TCU              11.36    
West Virginia   -2.72    Texas            11.60    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Baylor          +1.10 +/- 0.56    Kansas State    +0.40 +/- 0.24
TCU             +1.06 +/- 0.57    Texas           +0.31 +/- 0.28
Texas           +0.52 +/- 0.58    Baylor          +0.27 +/- 0.24
Kansas State    +0.43 +/- 0.54    Oklahoma State  +0.17 +/- 0.30
Iowa State      +0.35 +/- 0.52    TCU             +0.17 +/- 0.36
Oklahoma State  -0.16 +/- 0.54    Texas Tech      +0.11 +/- 0.15
Texas Tech      -0.36 +/- 0.44    Kansas          -0.01 +/- 0.27
Oklahoma        -0.39 +/- 0.45    Iowa State      -0.07 +/- 0.23
Kansas          -0.44 +/- 0.43    West Virginia   -0.41 +/- 0.23
West Virginia   -0.50 +/- 0.43    Oklahoma        -0.44 +/- 0.33

One more game, and the entire conference should be in the top 100 in Strength of Schedule.
West Virginia has dipped into negative territory in scoring margin, while Oklahoma State
managed to stay on the positive side for another round, barely.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
TCU             79.69   Texas Tech      55.88   West Virginia   149.06   Texas Tech      +15.24   
Iowa State      78.47   Kansas State    59.94   Kansas          148.94   Iowa State      +13.35   
Kansas          77.88   Baylor          64.62   TCU             147.81   TCU             +11.56   
West Virginia   74.47   Iowa State      65.12   Iowa State      143.59   Kansas           +6.82   
Oklahoma        73.29   Texas           65.88   Oklahoma        140.76   Baylor           +5.94   
Texas Tech      71.12   Oklahoma        67.47   Oklahoma State  140.06   Oklahoma         +5.82   
Baylor          70.56   TCU             68.12   Texas           136.29   Kansas State     +5.24   
Texas           70.41   Oklahoma State  70.00   Baylor          135.19   Texas            +4.53   
Oklahoma State  70.06   Kansas          71.06   Texas Tech      127.00   Oklahoma State   +0.06   
Kansas State    65.18   West Virginia   74.59   Kansas State    125.12   West Virginia    -0.12   

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas          81.33 (  1)
Oklahoma        80.38 (  3)
Oklahoma State  79.53 (  7)
Texas           79.02 (  9)
West Virginia   76.80 ( 27)
Kansas State    76.26 ( 36)
Iowa State      76.01 ( 42)
TCU             74.97 ( 59)
Baylor          74.72 ( 66)
Texas Tech      73.50 (102)
The following user(s) said Thank You: JRhawk, hairyhawk, boulderhawk, porthawk, jaythawk1

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