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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Big 12 projection, Round 5
- asteroid
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5 years 2 months ago #20609
by asteroid
Kansas State's upset win in Norman, coupled with the expected loss to Kansas by Texas,
enabled the Wildcats to leapfrog the Longhorns into sixth place. That home loss by
Oklahoma, coupled with wins by Iowa State and TCU, caused the Sooners to fall two
spots into fifth place, while the Cyclones and Horned Frogs each moved up a slot.
Lastly, Texas Tech's home loss not only cost them the projected 0.7 of a win, but
another 0.3 projected wins as a result of their lower Sagarin Predictor rating, which
enabled Kansas to ascend to the top spot.
Init. Rnd 1 Rnd 2 Rnd 3 Rnd 4 Rnd 5
Pred Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Conf
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Record Next Game Prediction
---- -------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ --------- -----------
# 9 Kansas 12.80 13.08 12.07 12.50 12.87 13.01 4 1 @WVU (Sa) KU by 6.1 RW
# 12 Texas Tech 11.96 12.28 12.35 12.71 13.27 12.28 4 1 @BU (Sa) TTU by 3.6 RW
# 14 Iowa State 10.49 10.85 11.75 11.07 10.07 10.97 3 2 OSU (Sa) ISU by 11.2
# 16 TCU 9.99 9.87 10.00 9.68 9.46 10.05 2 2 @KSU (Sa) TCU by 0.6 RW
# 23 Oklahoma 10.61 10.41 10.34 10.10 10.44 9.05 2 3 @UT (Sa)
# 41 Kansas State 7.81 6.43 6.43 6.63 7.59 8.85 3 2 TCU (Sa)
# 30 Texas 8.51 9.83 10.18 9.36 8.73 8.61 2 3 OU (Sa) UT by 2.5
# 48 Baylor 6.32 6.33 6.24 7.06 6.72 7.51 2 2 TTU (Sa)
# 71 Oklahoma State 5.22 4.82 4.72 5.34 6.30 5.60 2 3 @ISU (Sa)
# 60 West Virginia 6.29 6.10 5.92 5.55 4.55 4.07 0 5 KU (Sa)
Yours truly's trend analysis took honors for best prognostications in Round 5.
Honorable mention to Dunkel for being the only one to predict the Kansas State
upset of Oklahoma. Dunkel, ESPN's BPI, and my trend analsysis all predicted
the Baylor upset of Oklahoma State. Vegas retains the season lead.
Predictions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
KU over UT 8.0 9.0 7.7 6.5 12.5 8.0 6.7 13.4 10.3 10.3 10.0 12.0 8.2 10.5 3.2
TCU over WVU 7.7 10.0 9.1 6.5 5.5 8.0 10.5 20.7 12.5 8.9 7.0 18.0 10.5 12.9 14.0
OU over KSU 7.4 10.0 7.7 5.0 -1.0 5.5 9.6 12.7 11.2 7.9 8.0 9.0 10.4 12.8 10.3
TTU over ISU 4.9 9.0 5.7 5.0 10.5 5.0 5.3 12.6 7.3 7.4 7.0 14.0 5.0 7.3 4.1
OSU over BU 1.3 3.0 1.2 3.0 -2.0 3.0 0.8 2.7 2.3 -1.2 6.0 8.0 1.7 4.0 -3.9
Reality Error
------- --1-----------1-----------------1-----------------------1-----------------------------1-
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
2 6.0 7.0 5.7 4.5 10.5 6.0 4.7 11.4 8.3 8.3 8.0 10.0 6.2 8.5 1.2
31 23.3 21.0 21.9 24.5 25.5 23.0 20.5 10.3 18.5 22.1 24.0 13.0 20.5 18.1 17.0
-13 20.4 23.0 20.7 18.0 12.0 18.5 22.6 25.7 24.2 20.9 21.0 22.0 23.4 25.8 23.3
-4 8.9 13.0 9.7 9.0 14.5 9.0 9.3 16.6 11.3 11.4 11.0 18.0 9.0 11.3 8.1
-5 6.3 8.0 6.2 8.0 3.0 8.0 5.8 7.7 7.3 3.8 11.0 13.0 6.7 9.0 1.1
total 64.9 72.0 64.2 64.0 65.5 64.5 62.9 71.7 69.6 66.5 75.0 76.0 65.8 72.7 50.7
previous 102.8 119.0 102.8 105.0 118.5 101.5 119.9 207.0 146.7 110.7 144.0 156.0 128.5 140.9 159.6
cumulative 167.7 191.0 167.0 169.0 184.0 166.0 182.8 278.7 216.3 177.2 219.0 232.0 194.3 213.6 210.3
per game 7.0 8.0 7.0 7.0 7.7 6.9 7.6 11.6 9.0 7.4 9.1 9.7 8.1 8.9 8.8
No road wins are projected for Round 5, but three occurred, leaving us two ahead of the
long-term average of one in three. Three more are projected for Round 6, though one of
those is a toss-up.
Road wins (10 out of 24) Home losses Differential (RW-HL)
---------------------------------------- ------------------------------------ --------------------
2 Iowa State OSU TTU 0 Kansas +1 Iowa State
2 Kansas State ISU OU 0 TCU +1 Kansas
2 Texas Tech WVU UT 1 Texas Tech ISU +1 Kansas State
1 Baylor OSU 1 Baylor KU +1 Texas Tech
1 Kansas BU 1 Iowa State KSU 0 Baylor
1 Oklahoma State WVU 1 Kansas State UT 0 TCU
1 Texas KSU 1 Oklahoma KSU 0 Texas
0 Oklahoma 1 Texas TTU -1 Oklahoma
0 TCU 2 Oklahoma State ISU BU -1 Oklahoma State
0 West Virginia 2 West Virginia TTU OSU -2 West Virginia
West Virginia's inconsistency jumped again, and is now tied with Kansas for best in the conference.
Performance (points) Inconsistency (points)
--------------------- ----------------------
Iowa State +1.44 Kansas 8.68
Texas Tech +1.15 West Virginia 8.68
TCU +0.79 Texas Tech 8.85
Oklahoma +0.75 Oklahoma 8.94
Kansas -0.30 Iowa State 10.37
Texas -0.31 Oklahoma State 10.57
Oklahoma State -0.61 Kansas State 10.84
Baylor -0.78 Baylor 11.20
Kansas State -1.48 TCU 11.36
West Virginia -2.72 Texas 11.60
Trend (points per game) Mental toughness
------------------------------ ------------------------------
Baylor +1.10 +/- 0.56 Kansas State +0.40 +/- 0.24
TCU +1.06 +/- 0.57 Texas +0.31 +/- 0.28
Texas +0.52 +/- 0.58 Baylor +0.27 +/- 0.24
Kansas State +0.43 +/- 0.54 Oklahoma State +0.17 +/- 0.30
Iowa State +0.35 +/- 0.52 TCU +0.17 +/- 0.36
Oklahoma State -0.16 +/- 0.54 Texas Tech +0.11 +/- 0.15
Texas Tech -0.36 +/- 0.44 Kansas -0.01 +/- 0.27
Oklahoma -0.39 +/- 0.45 Iowa State -0.07 +/- 0.23
Kansas -0.44 +/- 0.43 West Virginia -0.41 +/- 0.23
West Virginia -0.50 +/- 0.43 Oklahoma -0.44 +/- 0.33
One more game, and the entire conference should be in the top 100 in Strength of Schedule.
West Virginia has dipped into negative territory in scoring margin, while Oklahoma State
managed to stay on the positive side for another round, barely.
Average offense (pts) Average defense (pts) Total Points Scoring Margin (pts)
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
TCU 79.69 Texas Tech 55.88 West Virginia 149.06 Texas Tech +15.24
Iowa State 78.47 Kansas State 59.94 Kansas 148.94 Iowa State +13.35
Kansas 77.88 Baylor 64.62 TCU 147.81 TCU +11.56
West Virginia 74.47 Iowa State 65.12 Iowa State 143.59 Kansas +6.82
Oklahoma 73.29 Texas 65.88 Oklahoma 140.76 Baylor +5.94
Texas Tech 71.12 Oklahoma 67.47 Oklahoma State 140.06 Oklahoma +5.82
Baylor 70.56 TCU 68.12 Texas 136.29 Kansas State +5.24
Texas 70.41 Oklahoma State 70.00 Baylor 135.19 Texas +4.53
Oklahoma State 70.06 Kansas 71.06 Texas Tech 127.00 Oklahoma State +0.06
Kansas State 65.18 West Virginia 74.59 Kansas State 125.12 West Virginia -0.12
Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas 81.33 ( 1)
Oklahoma 80.38 ( 3)
Oklahoma State 79.53 ( 7)
Texas 79.02 ( 9)
West Virginia 76.80 ( 27)
Kansas State 76.26 ( 36)
Iowa State 76.01 ( 42)
TCU 74.97 ( 59)
Baylor 74.72 ( 66)
Texas Tech 73.50 (102)
The following user(s) said Thank You: JRhawk, hairyhawk, boulderhawk, porthawk, jaythawk1
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