predictions for Texas game

Big Monday is back.  Unless you consider Clemson destroying Alabama to
represent Big Monday.  But that ball is misshaped.

Texas is the Big 12's most inconsistent team.  Which Longhorn squad is
going to show up tonight?  Will it be the one that played more than 26 points
above expectation against Grand Canyon, or the one that played more than
20 points above expectation against Kansas State, or the one that defeated
mighty North Carolina?  Or might it be the squad that played more than 17 points
below expectation in losing to Radford, more than 13 points below expectation
in losing to Providence, and almost 13 points below expectation against
Eastern Illinois?  Makes it harder to predict today's game.

The Michigan State common opponent provides the most optimistic of the various
prognostications, namely a 19 point victory.  Greenfield is the most pessimistic
with just a 6.5 point margin for Kansas.  The average is 10.4 points.

Both teams average a fraction of a point smaller margin of victory than their
respectively Sagarin Predictor ratings would suggest, so that's nearly a wash.
Texas is showing a positive trend while Kansas is showing a negative trend,
though neither is statistically significant.  Texas has a positive mental
toughness value while Kansas is neutral, but again, neither value is
statistically significant.  Taken at face value, however, the margin could be
as small as 3.2 points for Kansas.

Among Greenfield's eight offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in six of
them; Texas has a higher offensive rebound percentage and a lower turnover
percentage.  Among the seven defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in
just three of them, namely defensive rebounds per game, steals per game, and
(marginally) personal fouls per game.

Common Opponents
================
There is one common opponent, namely Michigan State:

KU   +5 MSU neutral ( +5 neutral court)
UT  -10 MSU neutral (-10 neutral court)
KU  +19 UT  at home (+15 neutral court)

That's the most favorable of the various prognostications.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Matt Coleman (guard)
most points        Kerwin Roach Jr. (guard)
most rebounds      Dylan Osetkowski (forward)
most assists       Kerwin Roach Jr. (guard
most steals        Elijah Mitrou-Long (guard)
most blocks        Jaxson Hayes (forward)
most turnovers     Kerwin Roach Jr. (guard
most fouls         Jaxson Hayes (forward)

Texas has no reported injuries.
No Doke (no joke) and no De Sousa for Kansas, though there was some news
regarding De Sousa today.

                                                          13-2            10-6
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas           Texas
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall         +8.43   72   63                #  8   #  1     # 31   # 14 
Sagarin Predictor       +7.96   71   63       77.7     #  8   #  1     # 30   # 14 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +10.06   72   62                #  7   #  1     # 34   # 14 
Sagarin Recent Games   +10.21   72   62                #  9   #  1     # 42   # 14
Sagarin Eigenvector    +14.23   74   60       88       
Massey                  +9.00   74   65       80       #  8   #  2     # 44   #  9
Pomeroy                 +7.71   71   63                #  9   #  1     # 32   # 20
Greenfield              +6.50   71   65                #  7   #  3     # 34   # 24
Dunkel                 +12.50   77   65                #  5            # 46                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +8.00   73.5 65.5                                         
Dolphin Predictive      +6.70   72   65                # 12   #  5     # 33   # 20
Real Time              +12.00   83   71       78.9     #  1   #  1     # 46   #  9 
Seven Overtimes        +10.00   76   66       81       #  2   #  1     # 27   # 13
DPPI                                                   #      #        #      #   
ESPN BPI               +10.30                 83.0     # 10   #  3     # 38   # 25
Whitlock               +10.29                          #  7   #  1     # 36   #  6
Colley Matrix          +13.35                          #  1   #  1     # 25   #  6
NCAA NET                                               # 12            # 50
common opponents       +19.00                                           
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                +10.4    73.7 64.3
scatter                  3.1     3.4  2.7

Here is Kansas' season; the season record projection remains at 24-7, with
projected losses at Kentucky and Texas Tech:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  3 Michigan State              92  87    -4.24    +9.24
HOME   # 84 Vermont                     84  68   +14.70    +1.30
HOME   #159 Louisiana                   89  76   +21.05    -8.05
NEUT   # 27 Marquette                   77  68    +4.01    +4.99
NEUT   #  5 Tennessee                   87  81    -1.79    +7.79
HOME   #109 Stanford                    90  84   +16.89   -10.89
HOME   # 53 Wofford                     72  47   +11.72   +13.28
HOME   # 63 New Mexico State            63  60   +12.92    -9.92
HOME   # 17 Villanova                   74  71    +6.03    -3.03
HOME   #192 South Dakota                89  53   +23.35   +12.65
AWAY   # 58 Arizona State               76  80    +6.06   -10.06
HOME   #161 Eastern Michigan            87  63   +21.16    +2.84
HOME   # 20 Oklahoma                    70  63    +6.23    +0.77
AWAY   # 14 Iowa State                  60  77    -0.48   -16.52
HOME   # 25 TCU                         77  68    +6.87    +2.13
AWAY   # 51 Baylor                      73  68    +5.08    -0.08
HOME   # 30 Texas                                 +7.96             0.777
AWAY   # 52 West Virginia                         +5.43             0.749
HOME   # 14 Iowa State                            +5.68             0.719
AWAY   # 15 Kentucky                              -0.44             0.482
AWAY   # 30 Texas                                 +1.80             0.568
HOME   # 11 Texas Tech                            +3.82             0.667
AWAY   # 44 Kansas State                          +4.28             0.674
HOME   # 68 Oklahoma State                       +13.06             0.905
AWAY   # 25 TCU                                   +0.71             0.529
HOME   # 52 West Virginia                        +11.59             0.924
AWAY   # 11 Texas Tech                            -2.34             0.395
HOME   # 44 Kansas State                         +10.44             0.864
AWAY   # 68 Oklahoma State                        +6.90             0.755
AWAY   # 20 Oklahoma                              +0.07             0.503
HOME   # 51 Baylor                               +11.24             0.865

Here is Texas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #294 Eastern Illinois            71  59   +24.85   -12.85
HOME   # 47 Arkansas                    73  71    +6.10    -4.10
HOME   #150 ULM                         65  55   +15.43    -5.43
HOME   #246 The Citadel                 97  69   +22.11    +5.89
NEUT   #  6 North Carolina              92  89    -6.04    +9.04
NEUT   #  3 Michigan State              68  78    -9.12    -0.88
HOME   #138 Radford                     59  62   +14.70   -17.70
HOME   # 69 VCU(Va. Commonwealth)       53  54    +8.25    -9.25
HOME   # 13 Purdue                      72  68    +0.74    +3.26
HOME   #108 Grand Canyon                98  60   +11.85   +26.15
HOME   # 62 Providence                  65  71    +7.72   -13.72
HOME   #185 UT Arlington                76  56   +18.07    +1.93
AWAY   # 44 Kansas State                67  47    -0.60   +20.60
HOME   # 52 West Virginia               61  54    +6.71    +0.29
AWAY   # 68 Oklahoma State              58  61    +2.02    -5.02
HOME   # 11 Texas Tech                  62  68    -1.06    -4.94
AWAY   #  8 Kansas                                -7.96             0.223
HOME   # 20 Oklahoma                              +1.35             0.554
AWAY   # 25 TCU                                   -4.17             0.354
AWAY   # 88 Georgia                               +3.93             0.635
HOME   #  8 Kansas                                -1.80             0.432
AWAY   # 14 Iowa State                            -5.36             0.316
HOME   # 51 Baylor                                +6.36             0.709
AWAY   # 52 West Virginia                         +0.55             0.522
HOME   # 44 Kansas State                          +5.56             0.694
HOME   # 68 Oklahoma State                        +8.18             0.764
AWAY   # 20 Oklahoma                              -4.81             0.314
AWAY   # 51 Baylor                                +0.20             0.507
HOME   # 14 Iowa State                            +0.80             0.528
AWAY   # 11 Texas Tech                            -7.22             0.243
HOME   # 25 TCU                                   +1.99             0.571