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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Big 12 projection, Round 4
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5 years 2 months ago #20494
by asteroid
Oklahoma State's road win in Morgantown was enough to get the Mountaineers
into the cellar that the Cowboys were occupying. Kansas State's road win
in Ames coupled with Baylor's home loss to Kansas enabled the Wildcats to
retake seventh place over the Bears. Oklahoma's squeaker over TCU coupled
with Iowa State's home loss to Kansas State gave the Sooners third place
over the Cyclones. No other changes.
Init. Rnd 1 Rnd 2 Rnd 3 Rnd 4
Pred Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Conf
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Record Next Game Prediction
---- -------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ --------- -----------
# 11 Texas Tech 11.96 12.28 12.35 12.71 13.27 4 0 ISU (We) TTU by 5.0
# 8 Kansas 12.80 13.08 12.07 12.50 12.87 3 1 UT (Mo) KU by 7.9
# 18 Oklahoma 10.61 10.41 10.34 10.10 10.44 2 2 KSU (We) OU by 7.4
# 14 Iowa State 10.49 10.85 11.75 11.07 10.07 2 2 @TTU (We)
# 25 TCU 9.99 9.87 10.00 9.68 9.46 1 2 WVU (Tu) TCU by 7.8
# 30 Texas 8.51 9.83 10.18 9.36 8.73 2 2 @KU (Mo)
# 43 Kansas State 7.81 6.43 6.43 6.63 7.59 2 2 @OU (We)
# 51 Baylor 6.32 6.33 6.24 7.06 6.72 1 2 @OSU (Mo)
# 67 Oklahoma State 5.22 4.82 4.72 5.34 6.30 2 2 BU (Mo) OSU by 0.8
# 52 West Virginia 6.29 6.10 5.92 5.55 4.55 0 4 @TCU (Tu)
Pomeroy took honors for best prognostications in Round 4, edging out Sagarin Predictor and
Massey. Vegas retains the season lead.
Predictions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
ISU over KSU 8.7 10.0 9.0 9.5 12.5 9.5 11.1 7.8 10.6 10.5 8.0 9.0 12.4 14.8 12.4
WVU over OSU 5.7 5.0 5.6 6.0 7.5 5.5 3.5 5.4 3.9 10.5 12.0 9.0 4.2 6.5 7.9
KU over BU 5.1 5.0 4.9 3.5 5.0 3.0 2.9 21.7 9.6 2.1 7.0 1.0 5.8 3.5 -1.5
OU over TCU 4.1 6.0 3.9 4.0 -1.5 4.0 6.0 6.2 6.5 5.8 -1.0 7.0 5.1 7.5 2.7
TTU over UT 0.6 3.0 0.8 -1.0 2.5 -1.0 1.6 -0.3 2.7 2.3 -1.0 -3.0 2.2 -0.1 -2.6
Reality Error
------- --1-----------1-----------------1-----------------------1-------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
-1 9.7 11.0 10.0 10.5 13.5 10.5 12.1 8.8 11.6 11.5 9.0 10.0 13.4 15.8 13.4
-8 13.7 13.0 13.6 14.0 15.5 13.5 11.5 13.4 11.9 18.5 20.0 17.0 12.2 14.5 15.9
5 0.1 0.0 0.1 1.5 0.0 2.0 2.1 16.7 4.6 2.9 2.0 4.0 0.8 1.5 6.5
2 2.1 4.0 1.9 2.0 3.5 2.0 4.0 4.2 4.5 3.8 3.0 5.0 3.1 5.5 0.7
6 5.4 3.0 5.2 7.0 3.5 7.0 4.4 6.3 3.3 3.7 7.0 9.0 3.8 6.1 8.6
total 31.0 31.0 30.8 35.0 36.0 35.0 34.1 49.4 35.9 40.4 41.0 45.0 33.3 43.4 45.1
previous 71.8 88.0 72.0 70.0 82.5 66.5 85.8 157.6 110.8 70.3 103.0 111.0 95.2 97.5 114.5
cumulative 102.8 119.0 102.8 105.0 118.5 101.5 119.9 207.0 146.7 110.7 144.0 156.0 128.5 140.9 159.6
per game 5.4 6.3 5.4 5.5 6.2 5.3 6.3 10.9 7.7 5.8 7.6 8.2 6.8 7.4 8.4
The two conference leaders were both projected to pick up road wins in Round 4, and they did,
along with two other unexpected road wins, bringing us one road win ahead ot the long-term
average of 1 in 3. No road wins are projected for Round 5, however, though Baylor is within
spitting distance of picking up a road win in Stillwater.
Road wins ( 7 out of 19) Home losses Differential (RW-HL)
---------------------------------------- ------------------------------------ --------------------
2 Texas Tech WVU UT 0 Kansas +2 Texas Tech
1 Iowa State OSU 0 Oklahoma +1 Kansas
1 Kansas BU 0 TCU 0 Iowa State
1 Kansas State ISU 0 Texas Tech 0 Kansas State
1 Oklahoma State WVU 1 Baylor KU 0 Oklahoma
1 Texas KSU 1 Iowa State KSU 0 Oklahoma State
0 Baylor 1 Kansas State UT 0 TCU
0 Oklahoma 1 Oklahoma State ISU 0 Texas
0 TCU 1 Texas TTU -1 Baylor
0 West Virginia 2 West Virginia TTU OSU -2 West Virginia
West Virginia's inconsistency jumped, but still remains the best in the conference.
Kansas gets the conference's most inconsistent team on Big Monday.
Performance (points) Inconsistency (points)
--------------------- ----------------------
Texas Tech +1.41 West Virginia 7.21
Iowa State +1.33 Oklahoma 7.61
Oklahoma +1.17 Texas Tech 8.76
TCU +0.33 Kansas 8.84
Kansas -0.24 Kansas State 10.05
Texas -0.42 TCU 10.44
Oklahoma State -0.53 Iowa State 10.61
Baylor -0.99 Oklahoma State 10.97
Kansas State -1.87 Baylor 11.32
West Virginia -2.44 Texas 11.79
Trend (points per game) Mental toughness
------------------------------ ------------------------------
Baylor +1.14 +/- 0.63 Kansas State +0.30 +/- 0.24
TCU +0.73 +/- 0.61 Texas +0.28 +/- 0.31
Texas +0.49 +/- 0.65 Baylor +0.24 +/- 0.26
Iowa State +0.23 +/- 0.59 Oklahoma State +0.19 +/- 0.31
Kansas State +0.02 +/- 0.56 TCU +0.15 +/- 0.32
Oklahoma +0.01 +/- 0.43 Texas Tech +0.15 +/- 0.15
Oklahoma State -0.06 +/- 0.62 Kansas 0.00 +/- 0.28
West Virginia -0.13 +/- 0.40 Iowa State -0.17 +/- 0.26
Texas Tech -0.19 +/- 0.49 West Virginia -0.25 +/- 0.22
Kansas -0.42 +/- 0.48 Oklahoma -0.44 +/- 0.27
And now the entire conference is in the upper half of Division I in Strength of Schedule.
Eight out of ten are in the top 20 percent. Oklahoma State flipped back over into positive
territory in scoring margin.
Average offense (pts) Average defense (pts) Total Points Scoring Margin (pts)
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
Iowa State 79.00 Texas Tech 55.00 Kansas 148.38 Texas Tech +16.69
TCU 78.60 Kansas State 60.00 West Virginia 148.06 Iowa State +13.69
Kansas 77.88 Baylor 64.47 TCU 146.67 TCU +10.53
West Virginia 74.81 Texas 65.12 Iowa State 144.31 Kansas +7.38
Oklahoma 74.19 Iowa State 65.31 Oklahoma 141.12 Oklahoma +7.25
Texas Tech 71.69 Oklahoma 66.94 Oklahoma State 139.94 Baylor +5.80
Baylor 70.27 TCU 68.07 Texas 134.94 Texas +4.69
Oklahoma State 70.25 Oklahoma State 69.69 Baylor 134.73 Kansas State +4.50
Texas 69.81 Kansas 70.50 Texas Tech 126.69 West Virginia +1.56
Kansas State 64.50 West Virginia 73.25 Kansas State 124.50 Oklahoma State +0.56
Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas 81.14 ( 1)
Oklahoma 80.45 ( 3)
Oklahoma State 79.52 ( 5)
Texas 78.02 ( 14)
West Virginia 75.94 ( 35)
Kansas State 75.37 ( 46)
Iowa State 74.71 ( 59)
TCU 74.66 ( 62)
Baylor 73.33 (109)
Texas Tech 72.28 (146)
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