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Big 12 projection, Round 4

  • asteroid
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5 months 1 week ago #20494 by asteroid
Oklahoma State's road win in Morgantown was enough to get the Mountaineers
into the cellar that the Cowboys were occupying.  Kansas State's road win
in Ames coupled with Baylor's home loss to Kansas enabled the Wildcats to
retake seventh place over the Bears.  Oklahoma's squeaker over TCU coupled
with Iowa State's home loss to Kansas State gave the Sooners third place
over the Cyclones.  No other changes.

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2  Rnd 3  Rnd 4
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
# 11  Texas Tech      11.96  12.28  12.35  12.71  13.27    4  0   ISU (We)   TTU by  5.0
#  8  Kansas          12.80  13.08  12.07  12.50  12.87    3  1   UT  (Mo)   KU  by  7.9
# 18  Oklahoma        10.61  10.41  10.34  10.10  10.44    2  2   KSU (We)   OU  by  7.4
# 14  Iowa State      10.49  10.85  11.75  11.07  10.07    2  2  @TTU (We)   
# 25  TCU              9.99   9.87  10.00   9.68   9.46    1  2   WVU (Tu)   TCU by  7.8
# 30  Texas            8.51   9.83  10.18   9.36   8.73    2  2  @KU  (Mo)   
# 43  Kansas State     7.81   6.43   6.43   6.63   7.59    2  2  @OU  (We)   
# 51  Baylor           6.32   6.33   6.24   7.06   6.72    1  2  @OSU (Mo)   
# 67  Oklahoma State   5.22   4.82   4.72   5.34   6.30    2  2   BU  (Mo)   OSU by  0.8
# 52  West Virginia    6.29   6.10   5.92   5.55   4.55    0  4  @TCU (Tu)   

Pomeroy took honors for best prognostications in Round 4, edging out Sagarin Predictor and
Massey.  Vegas retains the season lead.

Predictions                                                                                           
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
ISU over KSU   8.7  10.0   9.0   9.5  12.5   9.5  11.1   7.8  10.6  10.5   8.0   9.0  12.4  14.8  12.4
WVU over OSU   5.7   5.0   5.6   6.0   7.5   5.5   3.5   5.4   3.9  10.5  12.0   9.0   4.2   6.5   7.9
KU  over BU    5.1   5.0   4.9   3.5   5.0   3.0   2.9  21.7   9.6   2.1   7.0   1.0   5.8   3.5  -1.5
OU  over TCU   4.1   6.0   3.9   4.0  -1.5   4.0   6.0   6.2   6.5   5.8  -1.0   7.0   5.1   7.5   2.7
TTU over UT    0.6   3.0   0.8  -1.0   2.5  -1.0   1.6  -0.3   2.7   2.3  -1.0  -3.0   2.2  -0.1  -2.6

     Reality  Error                                                                                  
     -------  --1-----------1-----------------1-----------------------1-------------------------------
              Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
        -1     9.7  11.0  10.0  10.5  13.5  10.5  12.1   8.8  11.6  11.5   9.0  10.0  13.4  15.8  13.4
        -8    13.7  13.0  13.6  14.0  15.5  13.5  11.5  13.4  11.9  18.5  20.0  17.0  12.2  14.5  15.9
         5     0.1   0.0   0.1   1.5   0.0   2.0   2.1  16.7   4.6   2.9   2.0   4.0   0.8   1.5   6.5
         2     2.1   4.0   1.9   2.0   3.5   2.0   4.0   4.2   4.5   3.8   3.0   5.0   3.1   5.5   0.7
         6     5.4   3.0   5.2   7.0   3.5   7.0   4.4   6.3   3.3   3.7   7.0   9.0   3.8   6.1   8.6

total         31.0  31.0  30.8  35.0  36.0  35.0  34.1  49.4  35.9  40.4  41.0  45.0  33.3  43.4  45.1
previous      71.8  88.0  72.0  70.0  82.5  66.5  85.8 157.6 110.8  70.3 103.0 111.0  95.2  97.5 114.5
cumulative   102.8 119.0 102.8 105.0 118.5 101.5 119.9 207.0 146.7 110.7 144.0 156.0 128.5 140.9 159.6
per game       5.4   6.3   5.4   5.5   6.2   5.3   6.3  10.9   7.7   5.8   7.6   8.2   6.8   7.4   8.4

The two conference leaders were both projected to pick up road wins in Round 4, and they did,
along with two other unexpected road wins, bringing us one road win ahead ot the long-term
average of 1 in 3.  No road wins are projected for Round 5, however, though Baylor is within
spitting distance of picking up a road win in Stillwater.

Road wins ( 7 out of 19)                   Home losses                            Differential (RW-HL)
----------------------------------------   ------------------------------------   --------------------
2 Texas Tech     WVU UT                    0 Kansas                               +2 Texas Tech    
1 Iowa State     OSU                       0 Oklahoma                             +1 Kansas        
1 Kansas         BU                        0 TCU                                   0 Iowa State    
1 Kansas State   ISU                       0 Texas Tech                            0 Kansas State  
1 Oklahoma State WVU                       1 Baylor         KU                     0 Oklahoma      
1 Texas          KSU                       1 Iowa State     KSU                    0 Oklahoma State
0 Baylor                                   1 Kansas State   UT                     0 TCU           
0 Oklahoma                                 1 Oklahoma State ISU                    0 Texas         
0 TCU                                      1 Texas          TTU                   -1 Baylor        
0 West Virginia                            2 West Virginia  TTU OSU               -2 West Virginia 

West Virginia's inconsistency jumped, but still remains the best in the conference.
Kansas gets the conference's most inconsistent team on Big Monday.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Texas Tech      +1.41    West Virginia     7.21    
Iowa State      +1.33    Oklahoma          7.61    
Oklahoma        +1.17    Texas Tech        8.76    
TCU             +0.33    Kansas            8.84    
Kansas          -0.24    Kansas State     10.05    
Texas           -0.42    TCU              10.44    
Oklahoma State  -0.53    Iowa State       10.61    
Baylor          -0.99    Oklahoma State   10.97    
Kansas State    -1.87    Baylor           11.32    
West Virginia   -2.44    Texas            11.79    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Baylor          +1.14 +/- 0.63    Kansas State    +0.30 +/- 0.24
TCU             +0.73 +/- 0.61    Texas           +0.28 +/- 0.31
Texas           +0.49 +/- 0.65    Baylor          +0.24 +/- 0.26
Iowa State      +0.23 +/- 0.59    Oklahoma State  +0.19 +/- 0.31
Kansas State    +0.02 +/- 0.56    TCU             +0.15 +/- 0.32
Oklahoma        +0.01 +/- 0.43    Texas Tech      +0.15 +/- 0.15
Oklahoma State  -0.06 +/- 0.62    Kansas           0.00 +/- 0.28
West Virginia   -0.13 +/- 0.40    Iowa State      -0.17 +/- 0.26
Texas Tech      -0.19 +/- 0.49    West Virginia   -0.25 +/- 0.22
Kansas          -0.42 +/- 0.48    Oklahoma        -0.44 +/- 0.27

And now the entire conference is in the upper half of Division I in Strength of Schedule.
Eight out of ten are in the top 20 percent.  Oklahoma State flipped back over into positive
territory in scoring margin.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
Iowa State      79.00   Texas Tech      55.00   Kansas          148.38   Texas Tech      +16.69   
TCU             78.60   Kansas State    60.00   West Virginia   148.06   Iowa State      +13.69   
Kansas          77.88   Baylor          64.47   TCU             146.67   TCU             +10.53   
West Virginia   74.81   Texas           65.12   Iowa State      144.31   Kansas           +7.38   
Oklahoma        74.19   Iowa State      65.31   Oklahoma        141.12   Oklahoma         +7.25   
Texas Tech      71.69   Oklahoma        66.94   Oklahoma State  139.94   Baylor           +5.80   
Baylor          70.27   TCU             68.07   Texas           134.94   Texas            +4.69   
Oklahoma State  70.25   Oklahoma State  69.69   Baylor          134.73   Kansas State     +4.50   
Texas           69.81   Kansas          70.50   Texas Tech      126.69   West Virginia    +1.56   
Kansas State    64.50   West Virginia   73.25   Kansas State    124.50   Oklahoma State   +0.56   

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas          81.14 (  1)
Oklahoma        80.45 (  3)
Oklahoma State  79.52 (  5)
Texas           78.02 ( 14)
West Virginia   75.94 ( 35)
Kansas State    75.37 ( 46)
Iowa State      74.71 ( 59)
TCU             74.66 ( 62)
Baylor          73.33 (109)
Texas Tech      72.28 (146)
The following user(s) said Thank You: konza63, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, JayhawkChef, jayhawk969, Socalhawk, jaythawk1

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