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predictions for Baylor game

  • asteroid
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5 months 1 week ago #20475 by asteroid
The bad news is that Doke is out for the season.

More bad news is that Kansas has not yet won a true road game.

Even more bad news is that Kansas is on the road today to face the team
that beat the team that hammered Kansas in its previous road game.

The good news is that Agbaji's debut was encouraging.  Then again, so
was Grimes' debut against Michigan State.

And better news is that Kansas is favored in today's game.

Weird news is that we won't play these guys in Lawrence until the very end
of the regular season, whereas we'll get the Cyclones again in just a week
and a half.

Both teams are playing below their Sagarin Predictor rating, Kansas
somewhat less than Baylor.  The Bears have played above expectation in five
of their last six games, leading to a positive trend that is statistically
significant.  Although the trend is negative for Kansas, the value is not
statistically signficant, nor are either team's mental toughness ratings.
Still, take that positive trend for Baylor at face value, and the Jayhawks
would be looking at a 1 to 2 point loss today.  None of the various
prognosticators are predicting that, however.

Kansas is the more consistent of the two teams.  Baylor bookended their
non-conference season with their worst and best performances, opening
against Texas Southern by playing 19 points below expecation in a stunning
loss, and then playing 19 points above expectation against New Orleans.

Colley is not at all impressed by Baylor, picking Kansas to win by over
21 points, based on the teams' relative ratings.  That's the most optimistic
prediction, with Sagarin's eigenvector analysis being substantially more
optimistic than his other methods.  Meanwhile, Real Time has Kansas in a
1 point squeaker, with ESPN's BPI making Kansas just a 2 point favorite.  

As for Dunkel, Saturday games have already started, yet Dunkel is STILL
populating his web site with game predictions.  As of 8 a.m. Hawaii time,
the Kansas game prediction has NOT been posted, though the other four
Big 12 games have been posted.  Then again, the Kansas game is the last
of the Big 12 games to be played today.  But you can see why it is not
possible to prepare these summaries the evening before a game and expect
to include Dunkel.  The only alternative is to wake up early, which is
why I hate early tips.  Today's game is at an especially annoying time,
as I was up all night chasing asteroids.  I should be sleeping now,
rather than waiting for Dunkel to finish populating his web page so that
I can get this summary posted.  (The Kansas game prediction finally
appeared at 9:00 a.m. HST.)

Among Greenfield's eight offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in six of
them; Baylor has a higher offensive rebound percentage and attempts more
free throws per field goal attempt.  Among the seven defensive stats, Kansas
has the advantage in just three of them, namely defensive rebounds per game,
steals per game, and personal fouls per game.

Common Opponents
================
There are three common opponents:

KU  +36 SDU at home (+32 neutral court)
BU   +6 SDU at home ( +2 neutral court)
KU  +26 BU  on road (+30 neutral court)

KU   +9 TCU at home ( +5 neutral court)
BU   -4 TCU on road (  0 neutral court)
KU   +1 BU  on road ( +5 neutral court)

KU  -17 ISU on road (-13 neutral court)
BU   +3 ISU at home ( -1 neutral court)
KU  -16 BU  on road (-12 neutral court)

The South Dakota comparison is the most favorable for Kansas, while the
Iowa State comparison is the most favorable for Baylor.  The average is
3.7 points in favor of Kansas.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Makai Mason (guard)
most points        Makai Mason (guard)
most rebounds      Mark Vital (guard)
most assists       Makai Mason (guard)
most steals        King McClure (guard)
most blocks        Tristan Clark (forward)
most turnovers     Mario Kegler (guard)
most fouls         Mario Kegler (guard)

Guard Jake Lindsey is out for the season following hip surgery.
No Doke (no joke) and no De Sousa for Kansas.

                                                          13-2             9-5
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas          Baylor
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall         +5.32   71   66                #  8   #  1     # 52   #162 
Sagarin Predictor       +5.13   71   66       68.9     #  8   #  1     # 53   #162 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +6.80   72   65                #  7   #  1     # 51   #162 
Sagarin Recent Games    +3.84   71   67                # 11   #  1     # 46   #162
Sagarin Eigenvector    +14.13   76   62       88       
Massey                  +5.00   72   67       69       #  9   #  2     # 74   # 70
Pomeroy                 +4.86   70   65                # 10   #  3     # 53   #191
Greenfield              +3.50   70.5 67                #  7   #  5     # 55   # 71
Dunkel                  +5.00   70   65                #  5            # 64                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +3.00   71   68                                           
Dolphin Predictive      +2.94   70   68       60.0     # 14   #  5     # 57   # 79
Real Time               +1.00   79   78       51.3     #  1   #  1     #103   #158 
Seven Overtimes         +7.00   75   68       76       #  3   #  1     # 82   #143
DPPI                    +3.10   73   70       62.9     #      #        #      #   
ESPN BPI                +2.10                 57.7     # 10   #  4     # 46   #147
Whitlock                +9.61                          #  8   #  1     # 71   # 88
Colley Matrix          +21.65                          #  1   #  1     #125   #175
NCAA NET                                               # 11            # 73
common opponents        +3.67                                           
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                 +6.0    72.3 67.3
scatter                  4.9     2.7  3.6

Here is Kansas' season; the season record projection remains at 24-7, with
projected losses at Kentucky, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  3 Michigan State              92  87    -4.24    +9.24
HOME   # 89 Vermont                     84  68   +14.96    +1.04
HOME   #167 Louisiana                   89  76   +21.51    -8.51
NEUT   # 26 Marquette                   77  68    +3.87    +5.13
NEUT   #  6 Tennessee                   87  81    -1.46    +7.46
HOME   #115 Stanford                    90  84   +17.38   -11.38
HOME   # 50 Wofford                     72  47   +11.06   +13.94
HOME   # 63 New Mexico State            63  60   +12.52    -9.52
HOME   # 21 Villanova                   74  71    +6.38    -3.38
HOME   #206 South Dakota                89  53   +23.91   +12.09
AWAY   # 52 Arizona State               76  80    +5.09    -9.09
HOME   #186 Eastern Michigan            87  63   +22.83    +1.17
HOME   # 18 Oklahoma                    70  63    +5.99    +1.01
AWAY   # 13 Iowa State                  60  77    -1.07   -15.93
HOME   # 25 TCU                         77  68    +6.96    +2.04
AWAY   # 53 Baylor                                +5.12             0.689
HOME   # 29 Texas                                 +7.53             0.758
AWAY   # 49 West Virginia                         +4.81             0.725
HOME   # 13 Iowa State                            +5.13             0.697
AWAY   # 15 Kentucky                              -0.58             0.477
AWAY   # 29 Texas                                 +1.33             0.549
HOME   # 11 Texas Tech                            +3.88             0.664
AWAY   # 48 Kansas State                          +4.52             0.682
HOME   # 75 Oklahoma State                       +13.61             0.914
AWAY   # 25 TCU                                   +0.76             0.530
HOME   # 49 West Virginia                        +11.01             0.915
AWAY   # 11 Texas Tech                            -2.32             0.400
HOME   # 48 Kansas State                         +10.72             0.869
AWAY   # 75 Oklahoma State                        +7.41             0.771
AWAY   # 18 Oklahoma                              -0.21             0.490
HOME   # 53 Baylor                               +11.32             0.862

Here is Baylor's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #208 Texas Southern              69  72   +16.00   -19.00
HOME   #339 Southern U.                 80  53   +27.00    +0.00
HOME   #306 Prairie View A&M            91  80   +22.18   -11.18
HOME   #290 Nicholls State              81  54   +21.20    +5.80
NEUT   # 38 Mississippi                 70  78    -1.82    -6.18
NEUT   #129 George Mason                72  61    +7.28    +3.72
HOME   #206 South Dakota                63  57   +15.69    -9.69
AWAY   #116 Wichita State               63  71    +3.15   -11.15
AWAY   # 37 Arizona                     58  49    -4.93   +13.93
HOME   #209 Stephen F. Austin           58  59   +16.03   -17.03
HOME   # 44 Oregon                      57  47    +2.17    +7.83
HOME   #288 New Orleans                 84  44   +21.09   +18.91
AWAY   # 25 TCU                         81  85    -7.46    +3.46
HOME   # 13 Iowa State                  73  70    -3.09    +6.09
HOME   #  8 Kansas                                -5.12             0.311
AWAY   # 75 Oklahoma State                        -0.81             0.471
HOME   # 11 Texas Tech                            -4.34             0.339
AWAY   # 49 West Virginia                         -3.41             0.359
HOME   # 62 Alabama                               +4.29             0.648
AWAY   # 18 Oklahoma                              -8.43             0.196
HOME   # 25 TCU                                   -1.26             0.455
AWAY   # 29 Texas                                 -6.89             0.281
HOME   # 48 Kansas State                          +2.50             0.592
HOME   # 18 Oklahoma                              -2.23             0.410
AWAY   # 11 Texas Tech                           -10.54             0.156
AWAY   # 13 Iowa State                            -9.29             0.202
HOME   # 49 West Virginia                         +2.79             0.616
HOME   # 29 Texas                                 -0.69             0.477
AWAY   # 48 Kansas State                          -3.70             0.366
HOME   # 75 Oklahoma State                        +5.39             0.685
AWAY   #  8 Kansas                               -11.32             0.138
The following user(s) said Thank You: sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, gorillahawk, wardhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, KMT, jaythawk1

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