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Big 12 projection, Round 3

  • asteroid
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1 week 3 days ago #20430 by asteroid
Baylor's stunning win over Iowa State paid off more than Kansas State's
come-from-behind squeaker over West Virginia did, causing them to swap
places in the projected standings.  Texas' perplexing loss to Oklahoma
State cost them more than TCU's expected loss to Kansas, dropping the
Longhorns into the lower division.  No other changes.

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2  Rnd 3
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
# 11  Texas Tech      11.96  12.28  12.35  12.71    3  0  @UT  (Sa)   TTU by  0.6  RW
#  8  Kansas          12.80  13.08  12.07  12.50    2  1  @BU  (Sa)   KU  by  5.0  RW
# 13  Iowa State      10.49  10.85  11.75  11.07    2  1   KSU (Sa)   ISU by  8.8
# 18  Oklahoma        10.61  10.41  10.34  10.10    1  2   TCU (Sa)   OU  by  4.1
# 26  TCU              9.99   9.87  10.00   9.68    1  1  @OU  (Sa)   
# 28  Texas            8.51   9.83  10.18   9.36    2  1   TTU (Sa)   
# 51  Baylor           6.32   6.33   6.24   7.06    1  1   KU  (Sa)   
# 47  Kansas State     7.81   6.43   6.43   6.63    1  2  @ISU (Sa)   
# 49  West Virginia    6.29   6.10   5.92   5.55    0  3   OSU (Sa)   WVU by  5.7
# 73  Oklahoma State   5.22   4.82   4.72   5.34    1  2  @WVU (Sa)   

ESPN's BPI took honors for best prognostications in Round 3.  Honorable mention to Vegas.
Vegas retains the season lead.

Predictions                                                                                           
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
KU  over TCU   6.7   6.0   7.1   6.0  11.5   6.5   5.8   7.8   6.9   9.1   6.0   8.0   5.9   8.2  -2.7
TTU over OU    5.1   6.0   6.5   6.5   3.0   6.5   4.8  -2.6   3.5   8.6   4.0   9.0   5.2   7.6   5.8
ISU over BU    3.7   4.0   3.7   2.5  -1.5   2.5   4.8  12.4   8.4   1.4   6.0   5.0   6.7   4.4   7.7
KSU over WVU   3.6   5.0   4.0   4.5  12.0   4.0   3.8  12.2   6.2   4.8  -4.0  10.0   3.9   6.3   1.0
UT  over OSU   3.5   4.0   3.9   3.5   1.0   3.0   3.9  11.6   6.4   3.2  10.0  -1.0   4.2   1.8  10.5

     Reality  Error                                                                                  
     -------  --1-----------------------------1-----------------------1-------------------------------
              Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
         9     2.3   3.0   1.9   3.0   2.5   2.5   3.2   1.2   2.1   0.1   3.0   1.0   3.1   0.8  11.7
         7     1.9   1.0   0.5   0.5   4.0   0.5   2.2   9.6   3.5   1.6   3.0   2.0   1.8   0.6   1.2
        -3     6.7   7.0   6.7   5.5   1.5   5.5   7.8  15.4  11.4   4.4   9.0   8.0   9.7   7.4  10.7
         2     1.6   3.0   2.0   2.5  10.0   2.0   1.8  10.2   4.2   2.8   6.0   8.0   1.9   4.3   1.0
        -3     6.5   7.0   6.9   6.5   4.0   6.0   6.9  14.6   9.4   6.2  13.0   2.0   7.2   4.8  13.5

total         19.0  21.0  18.0  18.0  22.0  16.5  21.9  51.0  30.6  15.1  34.0  21.0  23.7  17.9  38.1
previous      52.8  67.0  54.0  52.0  60.5  50.0  63.9 106.6  80.2  55.2  69.0  90.0  71.5  79.6  76.4
cumulative    71.8  88.0  72.0  70.0  82.5  66.5  85.8 157.6 110.8  70.3 103.0 111.0  95.2  97.5 114.5
per game       5.1   6.3   5.1   5.0   5.9   4.8   6.1  11.3   7.9   5.0   7.4   7.9   6.8   7.0   8.2

No road wins in Round 3, despite the two that were projected.  The two conference leaders are
both projected to pick up road wins in Round 4.

Road wins ( 3 out of 14)                   Home losses                            Differential (RW-HL)
----------------------------------------   ------------------------------------   --------------------
1 Iowa State     OSU                       0 Baylor                               +1 Iowa State    
1 Texas          KSU                       0 Iowa State                           +1 Texas         
1 Texas Tech     WVU                       0 Kansas                               +1 Texas Tech    
0 Baylor                                   0 Oklahoma                              0 Baylor        
0 Kansas                                   0 TCU                                   0 Oklahoma      
0 Kansas State                             0 Texas                                 0 Kansas        
0 Oklahoma State                           0 Texas Tech                            0 TCU           
0 Oklahoma                                 1 Kansas State   UT                    -1 Kansas State  
0 TCU                                      1 Oklahoma State ISU                   -1 Oklahoma State
0 West Virginia                            1 West Virginia  TTU                   -1 West Virginia 

The teams with the most positive and most negative trends face off on Saturday.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Iowa State      +1.59    West Virginia     6.83    
Texas Tech      +1.40    Oklahoma          7.76    
Oklahoma        +1.23    Kansas            8.87    
TCU             +0.25    Texas Tech        9.22    
Texas           -0.29    Kansas State     10.04    
Kansas          -0.32    Iowa State       10.67    
Oklahoma State  -0.82    TCU              10.83    
Baylor          -1.00    Oklahoma State   10.88    
Kansas State    -2.07    Baylor           11.54    
West Virginia   -2.32    Texas            12.18    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Baylor          +1.37 +/- 0.69    Texas           +0.33 +/- 0.33
TCU             +0.83 +/- 0.71    Baylor          +0.24 +/- 0.28
Texas           +0.67 +/- 0.73    Kansas State    +0.24 +/- 0.27
Iowa State      +0.52 +/- 0.65    TCU             +0.17 +/- 0.38
West Virginia   +0.14 +/- 0.42    Texas Tech      +0.16 +/- 0.16
Oklahoma        +0.08 +/- 0.48    Oklahoma State  +0.15 +/- 0.31
Kansas State    -0.28 +/- 0.62    Kansas          +0.01 +/- 0.27
Texas Tech      -0.34 +/- 0.56    Iowa State      -0.14 +/- 0.27
Oklahoma State  -0.42 +/- 0.66    West Virginia   -0.23 +/- 0.21
Kansas          -0.51 +/- 0.53    Oklahoma        -0.42 +/- 0.28

Slowly the Schedule Strength rankings are improving for the conference as a whole.
Everybody except Texas Tech is now in the upper half of Division I.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
Iowa State      80.60   Texas Tech      54.67   Kansas          148.87   Texas Tech      +17.13   
TCU             78.79   Kansas State    60.33   West Virginia   147.13   Iowa State      +14.93   
Kansas          78.07   Baylor          63.71   TCU             146.43   TCU             +11.14   
West Virginia   74.80   Texas           64.80   Iowa State      146.27   Oklahoma         +7.87   
Oklahoma        74.20   Iowa State      65.67   Oklahoma        140.53   Kansas           +7.27   
Texas Tech      71.80   Oklahoma        66.33   Oklahoma State  138.47   Baylor           +6.86   
Baylor          70.57   TCU             67.64   Texas           135.27   Texas            +5.67   
Texas           70.47   Oklahoma State  69.33   Baylor          134.29   Kansas State     +4.47   
Oklahoma State  69.13   Kansas          70.80   Texas Tech      126.47   West Virginia    +2.47   
Kansas State    64.80   West Virginia   72.33   Kansas State    125.13   Oklahoma State   -0.20   

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas          80.61 (  1)
Oklahoma        80.07 (  2)
Oklahoma State  79.13 (  7)
Texas           77.44 ( 17)
West Virginia   75.75 ( 39)
Kansas State    74.66 ( 71)
Iowa State      74.23 ( 83)
TCU             73.52 (116)
Baylor          72.15 (163)
Texas Tech      70.89 (220)
The following user(s) said Thank You: JRhawk, hairyhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, KMT, jaythawk1

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