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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Big 12 projection, Round 3
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5 years 3 months ago #20430
by asteroid
Baylor's stunning win over Iowa State paid off more than Kansas State's
come-from-behind squeaker over West Virginia did, causing them to swap
places in the projected standings. Texas' perplexing loss to Oklahoma
State cost them more than TCU's expected loss to Kansas, dropping the
Longhorns into the lower division. No other changes.
Init. Rnd 1 Rnd 2 Rnd 3
Pred Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Conf
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Record Next Game Prediction
---- -------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ --------- -----------
# 11 Texas Tech 11.96 12.28 12.35 12.71 3 0 @UT (Sa) TTU by 0.6 RW
# 8 Kansas 12.80 13.08 12.07 12.50 2 1 @BU (Sa) KU by 5.0 RW
# 13 Iowa State 10.49 10.85 11.75 11.07 2 1 KSU (Sa) ISU by 8.8
# 18 Oklahoma 10.61 10.41 10.34 10.10 1 2 TCU (Sa) OU by 4.1
# 26 TCU 9.99 9.87 10.00 9.68 1 1 @OU (Sa)
# 28 Texas 8.51 9.83 10.18 9.36 2 1 TTU (Sa)
# 51 Baylor 6.32 6.33 6.24 7.06 1 1 KU (Sa)
# 47 Kansas State 7.81 6.43 6.43 6.63 1 2 @ISU (Sa)
# 49 West Virginia 6.29 6.10 5.92 5.55 0 3 OSU (Sa) WVU by 5.7
# 73 Oklahoma State 5.22 4.82 4.72 5.34 1 2 @WVU (Sa)
ESPN's BPI took honors for best prognostications in Round 3. Honorable mention to Vegas.
Vegas retains the season lead.
Predictions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
KU over TCU 6.7 6.0 7.1 6.0 11.5 6.5 5.8 7.8 6.9 9.1 6.0 8.0 5.9 8.2 -2.7
TTU over OU 5.1 6.0 6.5 6.5 3.0 6.5 4.8 -2.6 3.5 8.6 4.0 9.0 5.2 7.6 5.8
ISU over BU 3.7 4.0 3.7 2.5 -1.5 2.5 4.8 12.4 8.4 1.4 6.0 5.0 6.7 4.4 7.7
KSU over WVU 3.6 5.0 4.0 4.5 12.0 4.0 3.8 12.2 6.2 4.8 -4.0 10.0 3.9 6.3 1.0
UT over OSU 3.5 4.0 3.9 3.5 1.0 3.0 3.9 11.6 6.4 3.2 10.0 -1.0 4.2 1.8 10.5
Reality Error
------- --1-----------------------------1-----------------------1-------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
9 2.3 3.0 1.9 3.0 2.5 2.5 3.2 1.2 2.1 0.1 3.0 1.0 3.1 0.8 11.7
7 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.5 4.0 0.5 2.2 9.6 3.5 1.6 3.0 2.0 1.8 0.6 1.2
-3 6.7 7.0 6.7 5.5 1.5 5.5 7.8 15.4 11.4 4.4 9.0 8.0 9.7 7.4 10.7
2 1.6 3.0 2.0 2.5 10.0 2.0 1.8 10.2 4.2 2.8 6.0 8.0 1.9 4.3 1.0
-3 6.5 7.0 6.9 6.5 4.0 6.0 6.9 14.6 9.4 6.2 13.0 2.0 7.2 4.8 13.5
total 19.0 21.0 18.0 18.0 22.0 16.5 21.9 51.0 30.6 15.1 34.0 21.0 23.7 17.9 38.1
previous 52.8 67.0 54.0 52.0 60.5 50.0 63.9 106.6 80.2 55.2 69.0 90.0 71.5 79.6 76.4
cumulative 71.8 88.0 72.0 70.0 82.5 66.5 85.8 157.6 110.8 70.3 103.0 111.0 95.2 97.5 114.5
per game 5.1 6.3 5.1 5.0 5.9 4.8 6.1 11.3 7.9 5.0 7.4 7.9 6.8 7.0 8.2
No road wins in Round 3, despite the two that were projected. The two conference leaders are
both projected to pick up road wins in Round 4.
Road wins ( 3 out of 14) Home losses Differential (RW-HL)
---------------------------------------- ------------------------------------ --------------------
1 Iowa State OSU 0 Baylor +1 Iowa State
1 Texas KSU 0 Iowa State +1 Texas
1 Texas Tech WVU 0 Kansas +1 Texas Tech
0 Baylor 0 Oklahoma 0 Baylor
0 Kansas 0 TCU 0 Oklahoma
0 Kansas State 0 Texas 0 Kansas
0 Oklahoma State 0 Texas Tech 0 TCU
0 Oklahoma 1 Kansas State UT -1 Kansas State
0 TCU 1 Oklahoma State ISU -1 Oklahoma State
0 West Virginia 1 West Virginia TTU -1 West Virginia
The teams with the most positive and most negative trends face off on Saturday.
Performance (points) Inconsistency (points)
--------------------- ----------------------
Iowa State +1.59 West Virginia 6.83
Texas Tech +1.40 Oklahoma 7.76
Oklahoma +1.23 Kansas 8.87
TCU +0.25 Texas Tech 9.22
Texas -0.29 Kansas State 10.04
Kansas -0.32 Iowa State 10.67
Oklahoma State -0.82 TCU 10.83
Baylor -1.00 Oklahoma State 10.88
Kansas State -2.07 Baylor 11.54
West Virginia -2.32 Texas 12.18
Trend (points per game) Mental toughness
------------------------------ ------------------------------
Baylor +1.37 +/- 0.69 Texas +0.33 +/- 0.33
TCU +0.83 +/- 0.71 Baylor +0.24 +/- 0.28
Texas +0.67 +/- 0.73 Kansas State +0.24 +/- 0.27
Iowa State +0.52 +/- 0.65 TCU +0.17 +/- 0.38
West Virginia +0.14 +/- 0.42 Texas Tech +0.16 +/- 0.16
Oklahoma +0.08 +/- 0.48 Oklahoma State +0.15 +/- 0.31
Kansas State -0.28 +/- 0.62 Kansas +0.01 +/- 0.27
Texas Tech -0.34 +/- 0.56 Iowa State -0.14 +/- 0.27
Oklahoma State -0.42 +/- 0.66 West Virginia -0.23 +/- 0.21
Kansas -0.51 +/- 0.53 Oklahoma -0.42 +/- 0.28
Slowly the Schedule Strength rankings are improving for the conference as a whole.
Everybody except Texas Tech is now in the upper half of Division I.
Average offense (pts) Average defense (pts) Total Points Scoring Margin (pts)
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
Iowa State 80.60 Texas Tech 54.67 Kansas 148.87 Texas Tech +17.13
TCU 78.79 Kansas State 60.33 West Virginia 147.13 Iowa State +14.93
Kansas 78.07 Baylor 63.71 TCU 146.43 TCU +11.14
West Virginia 74.80 Texas 64.80 Iowa State 146.27 Oklahoma +7.87
Oklahoma 74.20 Iowa State 65.67 Oklahoma 140.53 Kansas +7.27
Texas Tech 71.80 Oklahoma 66.33 Oklahoma State 138.47 Baylor +6.86
Baylor 70.57 TCU 67.64 Texas 135.27 Texas +5.67
Texas 70.47 Oklahoma State 69.33 Baylor 134.29 Kansas State +4.47
Oklahoma State 69.13 Kansas 70.80 Texas Tech 126.47 West Virginia +2.47
Kansas State 64.80 West Virginia 72.33 Kansas State 125.13 Oklahoma State -0.20
Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas 80.61 ( 1)
Oklahoma 80.07 ( 2)
Oklahoma State 79.13 ( 7)
Texas 77.44 ( 17)
West Virginia 75.75 ( 39)
Kansas State 74.66 ( 71)
Iowa State 74.23 ( 83)
TCU 73.52 (116)
Baylor 72.15 (163)
Texas Tech 70.89 (220)
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