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predictions for TCU game

  • asteroid
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1 week 4 days ago #20425 by asteroid
Azubuike out, Agbaji in.  The Jayhawks have a different look to their team.
Well, not entirely.  They've already played a third of their schedule without
Azubuike due to his earlier ankle sprain and now his torn ligaments, so
nothing entirely new.  However, yanking the redshirt off of Agbaji is new,
at least for real game situations.  It will be interesting to see how the
team looks with the new line-up.

Kansas is favored by 7 to 8 points.  The most optimistic is Sagarin's new
eigenvector analysis, which puts the margin at 12.5 points.  Close behind
is Dunkel at 11.5 points, and the common opponent Eastern Michigan suggests
a 10 point margin for Kansas.  The most pessimistic prediction comes from
Sagarin's Recent Games analysis, where Kansas is less than a 4 point favorite.
Makes sense, considering that the Iowa State debacle is the most recent game,
in which Kansas played a season-worst 16 points below expectation.

TCU has three games that really stick out like a sore thumb.  Against USC,
they played almost 28 points above expectation, a truly rare event.  But
against Lipscomb, they played 18 points below expectation, and against
Bakersfield, they played 14 points below expectation.  The rest have been
within 10 points of expectation, which would otherwise have made them one of
the most consistent teams in the country, but that USC result has them below
average in terms of consistency.  Their last four games have been within
5 points of expectation.  Let's hope that streak continues.

TCU is slightly underrated, while Kansas is slightly overrated, but that
adjustment is less than a point.  Kansas has a negative trend, caused
mainly by the unexpectedly large loss at Iowa State.  TCU, on the other hand,
has a positive trend.  The mental toughness values are not statistically
significant.  Take those trends at face value, and Kansas would be looking
at a 3 point loss today.

Among Greenfield's eight offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in just
three of them, namely total rebounds per game, offensive rebound percentage,
and free throws attempted per field goal attempt.  Among the seven defensive
stats, Kansas has the advantage in just three of them, namely offensive
rebounds per game, defensive rebounds per game, and steals per game.

Common Opponents
================
There is one common opponent, namely Eastern Michigan:

KU  +24 EMU at home (+20 neutral court)
TCU +18 EMU at home (+14 neutral court)
KU  +10 TCU at home ( +6 neutral court)

The prediction from this comparison falls in the range of the others, though
on the optimistic side.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Desmond Bane (guard)
most points        Desmond Bane (guard)
most rebounds      Kevin Samuel (center)
most assists       Alex Robinson (guard)
most steals        Alex Robinson (guard)
most blocks        Kevin Samuel (center)
most turnovers     Alex Robinson (guard)
most fouls         Kevin Samuel (center)

Guard Jaylen Fisher did not play in the previous game due to swelling in his
right knee, and it is unclear whether he will be able to play in today's game.
Forward Yuat Alok did not play in the previous two games due to a hand injury,
and it is unclear whether he will be able to play in today's game.  On the
Kansas side of things, Udoka Azubuike is out for the rest of the season with
torn ligaments in his right hand, while Silvio De Sousa's eligibility remains
undecided.  Reports indicate that the reshirt will be coming off of Ochai
Agbaji.

                                                          12-2            12-1
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas           TCU
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall         +6.64   79   72                #  9   #  1     # 23   #151 
Sagarin Predictor       +6.66   79   72       74.1     # 11   #  1     # 24   #151 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +7.62   79   72                #  7   #  1     # 21   #151 
Sagarin Recent Games    +3.77   77   74                # 15   #  1     # 20   #151 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +12.50   82   69       86       
Massey                  +6.00   79   73       72       #  9   #  1     # 19   # 85
Pomeroy                 +7.06   78   71                # 10   #  3     # 27   #186
Greenfield              +6.00   79   73                #  8   #  4     # 30   # 95
Dunkel                 +11.50   79   68                #  5            # 44                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +6.50   79   72                                           
Dolphin Predictive      +5.84   78   72       68.6     # 14   #  5     # 29   # 89
Real Time               +8.00   83   75       70.4     #  1   #  1     #  8   # 52 
Seven Overtimes         +6.00   77   71       60       #  3   #  1     # 10   #157
DPPI                                                   #      #        #      #   
ESPN BPI                +9.10                 78.7     # 12   #  4     # 33   #277
Whitlock                +6.91                          #  9   #  1     # 23   # 80
Colley Matrix           +7.75                          #  1   #  1     # 10   # 54
NCAA NET                                               # 14            # 30
common opponents       +10.00                                           
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                 +7.5    79.1 71.8
scatter                  2.2     1.7  1.9

Here is Kansas' season; the season record projection remains at 24-7, with
projected losses at Kentucky, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  3 Michigan State              92  87    -4.47    +9.47
HOME   # 96 Vermont                     84  68   +15.20    +0.80
HOME   #165 Louisiana                   89  76   +21.05    -8.05
NEUT   # 26 Marquette                   77  68    +3.71    +5.29
NEUT   #  6 Tennessee                   87  81    -1.70    +7.70
HOME   #117 Stanford                    90  84   +17.21   -11.21
HOME   # 62 Wofford                     72  47   +12.23   +12.77
HOME   # 58 New Mexico State            63  60   +11.95    -8.95
HOME   # 22 Villanova                   74  71    +6.29    -3.29
HOME   #211 South Dakota                89  53   +23.94   +12.06
AWAY   # 54 Arizona State               76  80    +5.14    -9.14
HOME   #187 Eastern Michigan            87  63   +22.71    +1.29
HOME   # 18 Oklahoma                    70  63    +5.78    +1.22
AWAY   # 13 Iowa State                  60  77    -1.28   -15.72
HOME   # 24 TCU                                   +6.66             0.741
AWAY   # 51 Baylor                                +4.94             0.681
HOME   # 28 Texas                                 +7.35             0.749
AWAY   # 49 West Virginia                         +4.66             0.714
HOME   # 13 Iowa State                            +4.98             0.690
AWAY   # 14 Kentucky                              -0.97             0.462
AWAY   # 28 Texas                                 +1.09             0.540
HOME   # 12 Texas Tech                            +3.59             0.649
AWAY   # 48 Kansas State                          +4.21             0.666
HOME   # 73 Oklahoma State                       +13.31             0.905
AWAY   # 24 TCU                                   +0.40             0.516
HOME   # 49 West Virginia                        +10.92             0.908
AWAY   # 12 Texas Tech                            -2.67             0.388
HOME   # 48 Kansas State                         +10.47             0.856
AWAY   # 73 Oklahoma State                        +7.05             0.756
AWAY   # 18 Oklahoma                              -0.48             0.478
HOME   # 51 Baylor                               +11.20             0.856

Here is TCU's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #186 CS Bakersfield              66  61   +19.17   -14.17
HOME   #259 Oral Roberts                79  62   +23.93    -6.93
HOME   # 57 Fresno State                77  69    +8.34    -0.34
HOME   # 75 Lipscomb                    64  73    +9.99   -18.99
HOME   #187 Eastern Michigan            87  69   +19.18    -1.18
HOME   #159 Central Michigan            89  62   +17.24    +9.76
AWAY   # 95 SMU                         67  59    +5.41    +2.59
NEUT   # 77 Southern California         96  61    +7.33   +27.67
HOME   #157 Indiana State               90  70   +17.11    +2.89
NEUT   #292 Charlotte                   82  57   +22.70    +2.30
NEUT   #139 Bucknell                    82  65   +12.57    +4.43
NEUT   #157 Indiana State               83  69   +13.98    +0.02
Div2        Hawaii Pacific             canceled
HOME   # 51 Baylor                      85  81    +7.67    -3.67
AWAY   # 11 Kansas                                -6.66             0.259
AWAY   # 18 Oklahoma                              -4.01             0.341
HOME   # 49 West Virginia                         +7.39             0.783
AWAY   # 48 Kansas State                          +0.68             0.525
HOME   # 28 Texas                                 +3.82             0.626
HOME   # 25 Florida                               +3.14             0.611
AWAY   # 12 Texas Tech                            -6.20             0.277
AWAY   # 51 Baylor                                +1.41             0.549
HOME   # 73 Oklahoma State                        +9.78             0.810
AWAY   # 13 Iowa State                            -4.81             0.332
HOME   # 11 Kansas                                -0.40             0.484
HOME   # 18 Oklahoma                              +2.25             0.591
AWAY   # 73 Oklahoma State                        +3.52             0.624
HOME   # 13 Iowa State                            +1.45             0.552
AWAY   # 49 West Virginia                         +1.13             0.548
HOME   # 12 Texas Tech                            +0.06             0.502
HOME   # 48 Kansas State                          +6.94             0.739
AWAY   # 28 Texas                                 -2.44             0.419
The following user(s) said Thank You: sasnak, hairyhawk, gorillahawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, jaythawk1

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