Big 12 projection, Round 2

Texas took care of business by beating West Virginia, while TCU survived a comeback
by Baylor, watching an 11 point lead with 3 minutes to play drop to just a single
point with seconds to play.  That was enough for Texas to leapfrog TCU into the
upper division.  And Kansas would probably still be in the top spot, despite losing,
if they had simply kept close to the prediction.  But instead the Jayhawks got
hammered in Ames, so they lost not only the 0.48 fractional win, but also enough in
the Sagarin ratings to lose another half game, which enabled Texas Tech to take over
the top spot in the projected standings.  But have no fear; the Sooners will take
down the Red Raiders in Lubbock tomorrow, and all will be right with the world.

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
# 12  Texas Tech      11.96  12.28  12.35    2  0   OU  (Tu)   TTU by  5.2
# 11  Kansas          12.80  13.08  12.07    1  1   TCU (We)   KU  by  6.5
# 13  Iowa State      10.49  10.85  11.75    2  0  @BU  (Tu)   ISU by  3.7  projected road win
# 18  Oklahoma        10.61  10.41  10.34    1  1  @TTU (Tu)   
# 27  Texas            8.51   9.83  10.18    2  0  @OSU (Tu)   UT  by  3.4  projected road win
# 23  TCU              9.99   9.87  10.00    1  0  @KU  (We)   
# 47  Kansas State     7.81   6.43   6.43    0  2   WVU (We)   KSU by  3.5
# 55  Baylor           6.32   6.33   6.24    0  1   ISU (Tu)   
# 49  West Virginia    6.29   6.10   5.92    0  2  @KSU (We)   
# 76  Oklahoma State   5.22   4.82   4.72    0  2   UT  (Tu)   

Vegas took honors for best prognostications in Round 2 and has also taken over the
season lead.

Predictions                                                                                           
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
OU  over OSU  11.4  13.0  11.1  11.5  14.5  11.5  13.1  26.5  17.2  14.5  13.0  22.0  13.8  16.0  19.4
TTU over KSU  10.5  13.0  10.4  10.5   7.0  10.0  12.7   2.3  13.4  11.9   4.0  12.0  14.5  16.7  10.8
TCU over BU    8.6  10.0   8.2   8.0   4.0   7.0  11.5  21.7  12.9   5.7  14.0  19.0  10.5  12.7  11.0
UT  over WVU   7.1   7.0   7.2   7.0   1.0   7.0   9.5   8.6  11.2   7.2   2.0  14.0   9.5  11.8  14.5
ISU over KU    0.4  -2.0   0.1   1.5   3.5   2.0   2.6 -10.6  -1.2   2.6  -1.0   5.0  -2.0  -4.5   1.0

     Reality  Error                                                                                  
     -------  --1-----------------------------1-------------------------------------------------------
              Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
        10     1.4   3.0   1.1   1.5   4.5   1.5   3.1  16.5   7.2   4.5   3.0  12.0   3.8   6.0   9.4
         6     4.5   7.0   4.4   4.5   1.0   4.0   6.7   3.7   7.4   5.9   2.0   6.0   8.5  10.7   4.8
         4     4.6   6.0   4.2   4.0   0.0   3.0   7.5  17.7   8.9   1.7  10.0  15.0   6.5   8.7   7.0
         7     0.1   0.0   0.2   0.0   6.0   0.0   2.5   1.6   4.2   0.2   5.0   7.0   2.5   4.8   7.5
        17    16.6  19.0  16.9  15.5  13.5  15.0  14.4  27.6  18.2  14.4  18.0  12.0  19.0  21.5  16.0

total         27.2  35.0  26.8  25.5  25.0  23.5  34.2  67.1  45.9  26.7  38.0  52.0  40.3  51.7  44.7
previous      25.6  32.0  27.2  26.5  35.5  26.5  29.7  39.5  34.3  28.5  31.0  38.0  31.2  27.9  31.7
cumulative    52.8  67.0  54.0  52.0  60.5  50.0  63.9 106.6  80.2  55.2  69.0  90.0  71.5  79.6  76.4
per game       5.9   7.4   6.0   5.8   6.7   5.6   7.1  11.8   8.9   6.1   7.7  10.0   7.9   8.8   8.5

No road wins in Round 2, so we're now exactly on the 1 in 3 long-term trend.  Two road
wins are projected for Round 3.

Road wins ( 3 out of  9)                   Home losses                            Differential (RW-HL)
----------------------------------------   ------------------------------------   --------------------
1 Iowa State     OSU                       0 Baylor                               +1 Iowa State    
1 Texas          KSU                       0 Iowa State                           +1 Texas         
1 Texas Tech     WVU                       0 Kansas                               +1 Texas Tech    
0 Baylor                                   0 Oklahoma                              0 Baylor        
0 Kansas                                   0 TCU                                   0 Oklahoma      
0 Kansas State                             0 Texas                                 0 Kansas        
0 Oklahoma State                           0 Texas Tech                            0 TCU           
0 Oklahoma                                 1 Kansas State   UT                    -1 Kansas State  
0 TCU                                      1 Oklahoma State ISU                   -1 Oklahoma State
0 West Virginia                            1 West Virginia  TTU                   -1 West Virginia 

The inconsistency for Kansas and Iowa State jumped.  Next up for Kansas is the team with
the highest mental toughness rating, as well as a pretty healthy trend.  Then again, TCU
hasn't played anybody in the Top 25, not even in the Top 50.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Iowa State      +1.77    West Virginia     7.13    
Texas Tech      +1.45    Oklahoma          8.23    
Oklahoma        +1.34    Kansas            9.09    
TCU             +0.35    Texas Tech        9.66    
Texas           -0.20    Kansas State     10.44    
Kansas          -0.45    Iowa State       10.97    
Oklahoma State  -0.92    Oklahoma State   11.04    
Baylor          -1.23    TCU              11.26    
Kansas State    -2.15    Baylor           11.65    
West Virginia   -2.50    Texas            12.49    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Baylor          +1.46 +/- 0.79    TCU             +0.44 +/- 0.54
TCU             +1.19 +/- 0.80    Texas           +0.36 +/- 0.34
Texas           +1.01 +/- 0.81    Kansas State    +0.23 +/- 0.28
Iowa State      +0.86 +/- 0.72    Baylor          +0.19 +/- 0.30
Oklahoma        +0.22 +/- 0.56    Texas Tech      +0.18 +/- 0.17
West Virginia   +0.04 +/- 0.49    Oklahoma State  +0.12 +/- 0.32
Kansas State    -0.37 +/- 0.71    Kansas          -0.02 +/- 0.28
Texas Tech      -0.42 +/- 0.66    Iowa State      -0.10 +/- 0.30
Kansas          -0.67 +/- 0.60    West Virginia   -0.28 +/- 0.22
Oklahoma State  -0.72 +/- 0.73    Oklahoma        -0.47 +/- 0.35

Oklahoma playing at home against the conference doormat while Kansas was on the road to face a
Top 25 opponent was enough for the Jayhawks to reclaim the toughest schedule strength, not only
in the Big 12, but in all of Division I.  Oklahoma State is the first conference member to drop
into negative scoring margin territory.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
Iowa State      81.21   Texas Tech      54.21   Kansas          149.14   Texas Tech      +18.14   
TCU             79.46   Kansas State    59.57   West Virginia   147.64   Iowa State      +15.93   
Kansas          78.29   Baylor          63.08   TCU             146.54   TCU             +12.38   
Oklahoma        75.14   Texas           65.21   Iowa State      146.50   Oklahoma         +8.64   
West Virginia   75.07   Iowa State      65.29   Oklahoma        141.64   Baylor           +7.46   
Texas Tech      72.36   Oklahoma        66.50   Oklahoma State  139.86   Kansas           +7.43   
Texas           71.21   TCU             67.08   Texas           136.43   Texas            +6.00   
Baylor          70.54   Oklahoma State  70.00   Baylor          133.62   Kansas State     +4.93   
Oklahoma State  69.86   Kansas          70.86   Texas Tech      126.57   West Virginia    +2.50   
Kansas State    64.50   West Virginia   72.57   Kansas State    124.07   Oklahoma State   -0.14   

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas          80.17 (  1)
Oklahoma        79.18 (  5)
Oklahoma State  78.94 (  6)
Texas           76.97 ( 18)
West Virginia   74.99 ( 54)
Kansas State    74.34 ( 75)
Iowa State      73.03 (126)
TCU             72.54 (148)
Baylor          70.78 (220)
Texas Tech      69.38 (277)