Today's Game is a Toxic Indicator of a year that is bound to disappoint

It's taken me a while to begin to understand what we are facing this year. And the realization that I know how this season will end is not making me happy.
For the first time in my memory our guards are simply not very good. Individually Dotson is a talented and potentially great player, but he's not a true point guard becuase he doesn't create offense for his teammates. In many respects he's a 2 guard, but he lacks the size to be effetive at that position, and until and unless he becomes a true facilitator we lack what we have seemingly always had, a true point guard. I know that Self talks about 'combo guards,' but Dotson isn't a combo guard unless his other backcourt mate can create offense. Unfortunately, Grimes cannot.
Grimes is perhaps the most overrated recruit we've brought in for quite some time. Perhaps he'll develop into a really good player, but right now he's not even starting quality of most KU teams of the last 20 years. He's a lousy shooter, plays defense like he's just become aware of the concept, and physically lacks flexibility. That may not seem like something really important, but he simply doesn't move his body well, and the result if a series of peculiar and almost clumsy offensive efforts, and an increasingly obvious inability to move laterally on defense. He's tall, has long arms, and tries hard, but he's not going to be a top tier guard for KU, something we desperately need.
Garrett can't shoot. Vick really isn't a complete player, and never will be. I don't know with any certainly what is going on in his head, but he appears to lose concentration periodically, and that reflects itself in weird inexplicable turnovers. Strange player. Did I say that Garrett cannot shoot. Oh, I did. He appears to me to be no better this year than last. Odd how a full year hasn't reflected itself in improvement in that part of his game. I'm not sure I can recall a KU starter who shot with less skill than Garrett.
Lawson seems to have hit sort of an embankment rather than a wall. He is always in glide mode, which is very strange and disconcerting to watch. He misses far too many shots and always seems to take the less aggressive approach to ever shot. When he blew that layup in the first half today, I screamed out something about dunking the basketball. My wife thought I had fallen off my chair or some such thing, but I just was stunned by his obvious 'casualness' about a shot he absolutely had to make. He's a rebounding machine, but until he figures out how to score 20 or more a game, we're in trouble.
Doke is apparently an injury waiting to happen. And it appears that all the effort that has been put into his free throw shooting has amounted to nothing. Like Garrett and his lack of progress with his shot, Doke's back to where he was last year from the FT line. Scary thought, eh?
The rest of the team is what we all expected, which is not a lot unless the starters are playing well. They do all they can, but each is limited and can't carry the team that can't shoot straight.
In my opinion the key to this year is SDS. If he gets cleared in the next week or so, we might actually turn into a good team, and might actually win the Big 12 again. And with him in the game for 20 plus minutes, everyone else will improve. Then, who knows.
But if he doesn't get cleared, and I personally don't think he will, we are not going to be a top 10 team. We may win the Big 12, but we're not going deep in the NCAAs. In that respect, this will turn out to be a bad year for fans. If we somehow turn things around without SDS, then Self will truly have proven his greatness, once and for all.

Some things that befuddle me.

1. How does Vick stay on the floor with 7 TO's. I guess Self finally pulled him but as Senex says, Vick seems to completely lose concentration at times. And pretty much everything we seem to have lauded Vick for have been things that does not make anyone else better. They are all individual performance. I am losing confidence in Vick.

2. Can Lawson set a pick for a driver? My Kingdom for a Landen Lucas who can make the driver way more effective. Dedric may be able to pass but he needs to set a pick and take up more space inside. Too many blocks on the drivers and some of that is on Dedric.

3. Thank you Garrett for only shooting once from long. Let's try for zero next time.

4. 6 guys on the court??

5. What is up with the fact that we have been radically outplayed in the 6 minute stretch from 2 to go in the first half through the 1st four minutes of the 2nd half all season. This is completely perplexing. Coming out of the locker room we have been pathetic all season.

6. Defense is bad and getting worse.

7. Is Dedric athletic at all?

8. Devon was bad today but I'll cut him some slack. Senex is right to the extent he is not a true point guard at this point. But he does a lot well.

9. Udoka and injuries. What's up with that?

10. We can't shoot. Period. That is worrisome.

I'm pretty sure you posted this same type of breakdown of the team last year and they went to the final four. It's pretty easy to sit there and point out all the flaws of a team after a loss. Where have you been for the 12 wins for a team playing the toughest schedule in the nation? I think they will be fine. Will they win the National Championship? I honestly don't know and neither do you or anyone else because it's a total crap shoot come March. So why don't we just enjoy their games instead of picking a part the team after a loss to a good team on their home court where we lose pretty often anyway.

Worse case TT goes 15-3
We go 13-5
NCAA hammers KU
HCBS goes to NBA

Wait a minute, I am not sure we can go 13-5!

I'm pretty sure you're wrong. I did not post anything even remotely like this last year. We had a pretty good team last year, with lots of experience in the backcourt and just a lack of size up front. Of course size is no longer the valuable asset it once was, as the game has changed dramatically over the past 10 years. As for this year's team, it is, at this point, not a particularly good team. As I said, we may very well still win the Big 12, because we do have a lot of talented players, but the mix is not condusive to a deep run in the NCAAs. Sure, Grimes could suddenly remember how to shoot jumpers, and Lawson can become really aggressive and actually play serious defense, and Dotson would start reminding us of Aaron Miles, and Doke can play the rest of the season without getting injured, and Garrett might even learn how to shoot. Could be. I just am not counting on it.

...you're just testing us,,,right? ;P teehee thank you, texkan

This has already been a very strange year.

1. We start with the Adidas trial, being named specifically, and having Self's right hand man getting named personally with Zion. I suspect there is some hangover from this mess that is tainting everything about the coaching staff, players, Silvio in particular, sports administration, public comments, attitude, etc.

2. We have been successful against one of the toughest schedules so far, but we rarely have looked like a great team. I think overall college hoops is having a down year, and we're not great, but we're still one of the better teams. This may result in "parity" and any one of five teams winning the B-12, and a crapshoot in the tourney.

3. There is almost no emotion from this team, including the coaches. Self seems like a ghost on the sideline compared to prior years. And the media articles have nothing but boring, almost uninterested comments from Self about players, progress, etc. 24 turnovers yesterday and no visible reaction from Self.

4. There appears to be little improvement/player development from having several players who are juniors/seniors. Where is the cohesion from Lawson/Lawson/Moore being in their second years, Lightfoot/Dok/Vick/Garrett having several years under their belts but doesn't show in their skill development. They are essentially the same players they've been since the beginning. Almost no personality on this team or apparent team unity.

I'm not as negative about yesterday or our prospects, but more so am just confused as to what's going on overall. Something key is missing. I would bet the Adidas thing, with Silvio being two players in two years who has to sit out, is taking its toll on the program.

I am not going to go back and look for the posts and maybe it wasn't you Senex, and if it wasn't I apologize but everyone freaked out last year too, myself included and NO ONE thought we had a Final Four team. We lost by 16 to Baylor, 18 to OSU, 12 to TT and a total of 7 regular season losses and I'm certain it was "the sky is falling" until it wasn't and they won the Big 12 again and they went to the final four.

My whole point is this team is just fine. They have some issues to work through but what team doesn't? Who wants to peak now? I want to peak in March.

Also, one thing you said is that, and I quote regarding D Lawson " but until he figures out how to score 20 or more a game, we're in trouble." So averaging 19.1 isn't good enough LOL? That .9+ of a point is the difference maker?

When a team makes it to the tourney for 12 years in a row or more, they will overachieve some years and underachieve in others. I can't remember my feelings over the course of last season, but IMO making it to the Final Four last year was an over-achievement, plain and simple. We were more of a Elite 8 or Sweet Sixteen team, but we overachieved.

We overachieved due to some guards who played really great and Silvio providing a critical and surprising boost. We have none of those guys this year. Our scoring this year has relied heavily on Dok, Dedrick, and Lagerald. Dok is now out and Lagerald is unpredictable. One steady scorer isn't enough. We also haven't developed great team defense or even a really smooth offense, partially due to the youth of our guards.

To make matters worse, Self was trying to get back to playing 2 bigs and 3 smalls, but with Dok out and Silvio apparently also out, it looks like we'll have to shift gears and learn how to play with 4 smalls.

As far as development of players, we have seen Self develop bigs into much more than I expected, but how often have the guards taken a great leap forward? Remember Elijah Johnson? I loved his game, but I always thought he was more of a 2-guard than a 1. Designating someone a point guard doesn't make him one.

They do have time to figure things out. IMO that will mean Grimes flipping his switch to 'on' and providing us with a steady scorer, Vick becoming more consistent, and better contributions from Dotson and Moore. And improving in all of these areas is a lot to ask or expect.

My observation:

1.) Senex knows his basketball. No doubt about it and in my experience he won't sugarcoat it.
2.) I also know that (without checking history) every year we have at least one (sometimes several) "the sky is falling" moments. Objectively watching the ISU game, this is one of those moments.
3.) Every one of the past 14 years, we've somehow overcome these moments and setbacks, and magically won the league. It's far from guaranteed this year, but I'm sure you could point to several other examples of years where we've been in a similar or worse situation.
4.) All is not lost. Dok going down sucks, but in some ways it clarifies the way forward. Either Lawson needs to up his performance in a "small" lineup, or McCormack needs to accelerate his learning curve. Grimes needs to take his recent uptick in performance and make it a habit, Dotson needs to continue to progress, Garrett needs to figure out a role where he's not an offensive liability, and Vick will be Vick...we're kind of stuck there. It sounds like a long list, but we've faced these kinds of things before.
5.) If we win the Big 12, we'll be no worse than a 2 seed in the conference as I can't imagine that the Big 12 winner won't be at least a top 10 team. In almost every scenario, 14 wins is good for a tie for 1st place, so we now only have 3 away losses to burn. We're still on a track for the "win out at home, win the majority of you road games" path.

Bottom line, we're very flawed and that's not really debatable. I tend to take a "glass is half full" approach during these times, and it's pretty much worked out for me in the past 14 years. At the same time, I have no issue with harsh criticism when it's due, and our guys certainly earned some wrath after Saturday. Say what you will about Senex's take on this team, but if that's the level of performance we can expect, we might not finish in the top half of the conference. I just choose to believe (based on history) that we'll overcome this, we'll play better and that the other 9 teams in the league will also have some off nights.