predictions for Iowa State game

It's the second true road game of the season for the Jayhawks.  The first
true road game did not end well for Kansas.  Let's hope the second one goes
better.

But Iowa State is ranked higher than Arizona State, and Hilton Magic may be
a bit more intimidating than the Curtain of Distraction.  It's pretty much
a toss-up game, which means it's an opportunity for Kansas to pick up about
a half game in the projected standings.

Predictions are all over the place, with Real Time being the most pessimistic,
calling for Kansas to lose by 5 points.  Colley is the most optimistic,
expecting the Jayhawks to win by 10 points.  Then again, Colley hasn't
updating his ratings since January 1, so take that prediction with a grain
of salt.  ESPN's BPI, Dolphin, and Greenfield all pick Iowa State.  Massey,
Whitlock, and Seven Overtimes all pick Kansas.  Four of Sagarin's five
methods pick Kansas, but Predictor picks Iowa State, and that's the one I
use for the projections.  Dunkel, as usual, is still populating his web site
as I write this, but the only Big 12 game posted is Texas versus West
Virginia.  Seems like he works backward in time, which makes no sense to me.
Anyway, there have been no new additions to his predictions for maybe the
last 20 minutes or so, and I'm tired of waiting.  I need to get some sleep.

The Cyclones are actually underrated by about 1.5 points, while Kansas is
overrated by 0.1 points.  Doesn't really change it from being a one
possession game.  Kansas is the more consistent of the two teams, but the
level of inconsistency far exceeds a one-possession margin, so it doesn't
really matter all that much.  Trends and mental toughness values are not
statistically significant for either team.  Recall that last season, the
home court advantage in the Big 12 was 5.45 points, compared to the 3.20
point value being used by Sagarin.  That benefits Iowa State.

The Cyclones' best game came just before conference play began, when they
performed more than 20 points above expectation against Eastern Illinois.
They almost duplicated that feat against San Diego State.  At the opposite
end of the spectrum, their worst game came against in-state rival Iowa,
when they played more than 16 points below expectation.

Among Greenfield's eight offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in just
three of them, namely total rebounds per game, offensive rebound percentage,
and free throws attempted pre field goal attempt.  Among the seven defensive
stats, Kansas has the advantage in four of them; Iowa State holds opponents
to fewer points per game, blocks more shots per game, and commits fewer
personal fouls per game.

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Tyrese Haliburton (guard)
most points        Marial Shayok (guard)
most rebounds      Michael Jacobson (forward)
most assists       Nick Weiler-Babb (guard)
most steals        Tyrese Haliburton (guard)
most blocks        George Conditt IV (forward)
most turnovers     Marial Shayok (guard)
most fouls         Lindell Wigginton (guard)

Iowa State has no reported injuries.

                                                          12-1            11-2
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Iowa State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall         +0.29   76   76                #  7   #  6     # 21   #177 
Sagarin Predictor       -0.39   76   76       48.4     #  9   #  6     # 19   #177 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +2.73   77   74                #  6   #  6     # 26   #177 
Sagarin Recent Games    +2.83   77   74                #  4   #  6     # 33   #177 
Sagarin Eigenvector     +4.77   78   73       67       
Massey                  +2.00   77   75       53       #  5   #  1     # 32   # 82
Pomeroy                 -0.06   74   74                #  9   # 14     # 16   #233
Greenfield              -1.50   74.5 76                #  6   #  4     # 17   # 56
Dunkel                                                 #  5            # 33                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)                                                                
Dolphin Predictive      -2.56   72   75       41.5     # 13   #  9     # 18   # 58
Real Time               -5.00   78   83       37.0     #  1   #  2     # 32   #178 
Seven Overtimes         +1.00   75   74       51       #  1   #  1     # 39   # 99
DPPI                    +2.80   76   73       61.0     #      #        #      #   
ESPN BPI                -2.60                 44.7     # 12   # 13     # 17   #222
Whitlock                +1.22                          #  8   #  1     # 20   # 93
Colley Matrix          +10.60                          #  1   #  2     # 38   #179
NCAA NET                                               # 14            # 30
common opponents                                                  
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                 +1.1    75.9 75.3
scatter                  3.7     3.3  2.7

Here is Kansas' season; the season record projection remains at 24-7, with
projected losses at Iowa State, Kentucky, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  3 Michigan State              92  87    -3.55    +8.55
HOME   #109 Vermont                     84  68   +16.82    -0.82
HOME   #170 Louisiana                   89  76   +22.04    -9.04
NEUT   # 29 Marquette                   77  68    +4.79    +4.21
NEUT   # 12 Tennessee                   87  81    +1.07    +4.93
HOME   #114 Stanford                    90  84   +17.50   -11.50
HOME   # 56 Wofford                     72  47   +12.29   +12.71
HOME   # 63 New Mexico State            63  60   +12.56    -9.56
HOME   # 24 Villanova                   74  71    +6.95    -3.95
HOME   #198 South Dakota                89  53   +23.88   +12.12
AWAY   # 62 Arizona State               76  80    +6.14   -10.14
HOME   #203 Eastern Michigan            87  63   +24.06    -0.06
HOME   # 20 Oklahoma                    70  63    +6.03    +0.97
AWAY   # 19 Iowa State                            -0.40             0.484
HOME   # 23 TCU                                   +6.91             0.752
AWAY   # 57 Baylor                                +5.95             0.715
HOME   # 27 Texas                                 +7.68             0.760
AWAY   # 50 West Virginia                         +5.22             0.748
HOME   # 19 Iowa State                            +6.00             0.732
AWAY   # 15 Kentucky                              -0.85             0.465
AWAY   # 27 Texas                                 +1.28             0.547
HOME   # 11 Texas Tech                            +3.94             0.666
AWAY   # 48 Kansas State                          +4.87             0.694
HOME   # 79 Oklahoma State                       +14.19             0.920
AWAY   # 23 TCU                                   +0.51             0.520
HOME   # 50 West Virginia                        +11.62             0.932
AWAY   # 11 Texas Tech                            -2.46             0.394
HOME   # 48 Kansas State                         +11.27             0.880
AWAY   # 79 Oklahoma State                        +7.79             0.780
AWAY   # 20 Oklahoma                              -0.37             0.483
HOME   # 57 Baylor                               +12.35             0.881

Here is Iowa State's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #337 Alabama State               79  53   +32.02    -6.02
HOME   # 77 Missouri                    76  59   +11.07    +5.93
HOME   #212 Texas Southern              85  73   +21.91    -9.91
NEUT   # 37 Arizona                     66  71    +3.40    -8.40
NEUT   # 94 Illinois                    84  68    +9.58    +6.42
NEUT   #101 San Diego State             87  57   +10.04   +19.96
HOME   #208 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           82  55   +21.53    +5.47
HOME   #204 North Dakota State          81  59   +21.28    +0.72
AWAY   # 51 Iowa                        84  98    +2.51   -16.51
HOME   #338 Southern U.                101  65   +32.26    +3.74
NEUT   #128 Drake                       77  68   +12.62    -3.62
HOME   #296 Eastern Illinois           101  53   +27.41   +20.59
AWAY   # 79 Oklahoma State              69  63    +4.99    +1.01
HOME   #  9 Kansas                                +0.40             0.516
AWAY   # 57 Baylor                                +3.15             0.608
HOME   # 48 Kansas State                          +8.47             0.785
AWAY   # 11 Texas Tech                            -5.26             0.306
HOME   # 79 Oklahoma State                       +11.39             0.846
AWAY   #  9 Kansas                                -6.00             0.268
AWAY   # 46 Mississippi                           +1.85             0.567
HOME   # 50 West Virginia                         +8.82             0.832
HOME   # 27 Texas                                 +4.88             0.659
AWAY   # 20 Oklahoma                              -3.17             0.372
HOME   # 23 TCU                                   +4.11             0.643
AWAY   # 48 Kansas State                          +2.07             0.577
HOME   # 57 Baylor                                +9.55             0.797
AWAY   # 23 TCU                                   -2.29             0.419
HOME   # 20 Oklahoma                              +3.23             0.630
AWAY   # 27 Texas                                 -1.52             0.449
AWAY   # 50 West Virginia                         +2.42             0.604
HOME   # 11 Texas Tech                            +1.14             0.544