Big 12 projection, Round 1

Iowa State's win coupled with Oklahoma's loss was enough for them to swap
places in the projected standings.  No other changes, though Texas is
breathing down TCU's neck.

                      Init.  Rnd 1
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  8  Kansas          12.80  13.08    1  0  @ISU (Sa)   
# 11  Texas Tech      11.96  12.28    1  0   KSU (Sa)   TTU by 10.6
# 18  Iowa State      10.49  10.85    1  0   KU  (Sa)   ISU by  0.2
# 19  Oklahoma        10.61  10.41    0  1   OSU (Sa)   OU  by 11.5
# 24  TCU              9.99   9.87    0  0   BU  (Sa)   TCU by  8.7
# 27  Texas            8.51   9.83    1  0   WVU (Sa)   UT  by  7.1
# 48  Kansas State     7.81   6.43    0  1  @TTU (Sa)   
# 61  Baylor           6.32   6.33    0  0  @TCU (Sa)   
# 53  West Virginia    6.29   6.10    0  1  @UT  (Sa)   
# 80  Oklahoma State   5.22   4.82    0  1  @OU  (Sa)   

Sagarin took honors for best prognostications in Round 1 and obviously has the
season lead.  Vegas and Greenfield with honorable mention.  Although both Dunkel
and my trend analysis picked Kansas State to lose, nobody came close to getting
the margin right.

Predictions                                                                                             
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
KU  over OU      6.2   6.0   8.1   8.5  -4.5   8.0   3.4   4.6   3.7   8.3   5.0   8.0   4.5   6.8   7.2
ISU over OSU     5.0   2.0   5.3   4.5   2.5   4.5   6.3   7.5   7.8   7.3   7.0   2.0   7.6   5.4  11.0
TTU over WVU     4.6   6.0   4.9   4.5   1.5   3.5   8.0   9.1  10.0   2.4  -4.0   1.0   9.2   6.9  10.9
KSU over UT      2.2   4.0   3.5   2.0  -1.0   3.5   0.8   9.5   2.2   5.3   1.0  11.0   0.9   3.2  -1.4

       Reality  Error                                                                                  
       -------  --1-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
           7     0.8   1.0   1.1   1.5  11.5   1.0   3.6   2.4   3.3   1.3   2.0   1.0   2.5   0.2   0.2
           6     1.0   4.0   0.7   1.5   3.5   1.5   0.3   1.5   1.8   1.3   1.0   4.0   1.6   0.6   5.0
           3     1.6   3.0   1.9   1.5   1.5   0.5   5.0   6.1   7.0   0.6   7.0   2.0   6.2   3.9   7.9
         -20    22.2  24.0  23.5  22.0  19.0  23.5  20.8  29.5  22.2  25.3  21.0  31.0  20.9  23.2  18.6

total           25.6  32.0  27.2  26.5  35.5  26.5  29.7  39.5  34.3  28.5  31.0  38.0  31.2  27.9  31.7
previous
cumulative      25.6  32.0  27.2  26.5  35.5  26.5  29.7  39.5  34.3  28.5  31.0  38.0  31.2  27.9  31.7
per game         6.4   8.0   6.8   6.6   8.9   6.6   7.4   9.9   8.6   7.1   7.8   9.5   7.8   7.0   7.9

As I recall, last season also started with a bunch of road wins, yet we
ended the season pretty much bang on the expected one in three.  No road
wins are projected for Round 2, though the game in Ames is effectively a
toss-up.

Road wins ( 3 out of  4)                   Home losses                            Differential (RW-HL)
----------------------------------------   ------------------------------------   --------------------
1 Iowa State     OSU                       0 Baylor                               +1 Iowa State    
1 Texas          KSU                       0 Iowa State                           +1 Texas         
1 Texas Tech     WVU                       0 Kansas                               +1 Texas Tech    
0 Baylor                                   0 Oklahoma                              0 Baylor        
0 Kansas                                   0 TCU                                   0 Oklahoma      
0 Kansas State                             0 Texas                                 0 Kansas        
0 Oklahoma State                           0 Texas Tech                            0 TCU           
0 Oklahoma                                 1 Kansas State   UT                    -1 Kansas State  
0 TCU                                      1 Oklahoma State ISU                   -1 Oklahoma State
0 West Virginia                            1 West Virginia  TTU                   -1 West Virginia 

TCU's conference leading trend and mental toughness bodes well for keeping
the Horned Frogs in the upper division.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Texas Tech      +1.63    West Virginia     7.30    
Iowa State      +1.49    Kansas            7.89    
Oklahoma        +1.42    Oklahoma          8.29    
TCU             +0.47    Texas Tech        9.90    
Kansas          -0.02    Iowa State       10.72    
Texas           -0.19    Kansas State     10.72    
Oklahoma State  -0.99    Oklahoma State   11.42    
Baylor          -1.36    TCU              11.72    
Kansas State    -2.28    Baylor           12.07    
West Virginia   -2.55    Texas            12.87    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
TCU             +1.79 +/- 0.86    TCU             +0.55 +/- 0.54
Baylor          +1.61 +/- 0.93    Texas           +0.34 +/- 0.37
Texas           +1.25 +/- 0.92    Texas Tech      +0.21 +/- 0.18
Iowa State      +0.61 +/- 0.81    Kansas State    +0.19 +/- 0.35
Oklahoma        +0.40 +/- 0.63    Baylor          +0.15 +/- 0.36
West Virginia   -0.04 +/- 0.56    Kansas          +0.11 +/- 0.27
Kansas          -0.20 +/- 0.61    Oklahoma State  +0.10 +/- 0.36
Texas Tech      -0.33 +/- 0.76    Iowa State      -0.24 +/- 0.30
Kansas State    -0.78 +/- 0.80    West Virginia   -0.31 +/- 0.24
Oklahoma State  -0.98 +/- 0.83    Oklahoma        -0.43 +/- 0.34

Oklahoma playing at Kansas was enough to propel the Sooners into the top spot
in Schedule Strength.  Don't let Texas Tech's Scoring Margin fool you; that
was built against the weakest non-conference schedule.  Baylor didn't do much
better.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
Iowa State      81.69   Texas Tech      53.85   West Virginia   150.15   Texas Tech      +19.38   
Kansas          79.54   Kansas State    59.46   Kansas          150.08   Iowa State      +16.15   
TCU             79.17   Baylor          61.42   Iowa State      147.23   TCU             +13.42   
West Virginia   76.54   Iowa State      65.54   TCU             144.92   Kansas           +9.00   
Oklahoma        75.38   TCU             65.75   Oklahoma        141.92   Oklahoma         +8.85   
Texas Tech      73.23   Texas           65.92   Oklahoma State  140.00   Baylor           +8.08   
Texas           72.15   Oklahoma        66.54   Texas           138.08   Texas            +6.23   
Oklahoma State  70.15   Oklahoma State  69.85   Baylor          130.92   Kansas State     +5.46   
Baylor          69.50   Kansas          70.54   Texas Tech      127.08   West Virginia    +2.92   
Kansas State    64.92   West Virginia   73.62   Kansas State    124.38   Oklahoma State   +0.31   

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Oklahoma        79.52 (  3)
Kansas          79.18 (  5)
Oklahoma State  77.61 ( 14)
Texas           76.38 ( 38)
West Virginia   73.89 ( 99)
Kansas State    72.96 (131)
Iowa State      71.83 (175)
TCU             71.81 (177)
Baylor          68.92 (293)
Texas Tech      67.93 (321)