predictions for Oklahoma game

Well, conference play starts off with a bang.

Dunkel is the pessimist of the bunch, picking Oklahoma not only to beat the
spread, but also to win outright.  It's a little bizarre to see that after
looking at his rankings, in which Kansas is #5 and Oklahoma is #51, but take
a closer look and you'll see that he also has Kansas with a 7-0 record, which
means his rankings are about a month out-of-date.

Greenfield is the optimist, picking Kansas to win by 8.5 points, though if
you click on that prediction, suddenly it appears that the line has dropped
to just 8 points.  But the predicted score shows a difference of 8.5 points,
so I'm sticking with that.  Several prognosticators have it at 8 points, but
the average of 6.3 points is right in line with Sagarin Overall.

Kansas and Oklahoma are the second and third most consistent teams in the
Big 12.  That makes it harder to overcome the predicted margin, so my
probability of winning is higher than those who use the national average
for inconsistency.

Oklahoma appears to be underrated by 1.6 points, while the rating for Kansas
is bang on.  That would reduce the margin for Kansas to 4.5 points.  Neither
team's trend is statistically significant.  The positive mental toughness
rating for Kansas is not statistically significant, while the negative rating
for Oklahoma is marginally significant.  That would boost the margin for Kansas
to 7.2 points.

Oklahoma's best game came against Wichita State, when they played 17 points
above expectation.  The Sooners' worst game came against Wisconsin, when
they played 20 points below expectation.  When you compare with Kansas,
which has played within 12.2 points of expectation for all 12 games, you wonder
how Oklahoma could be the next most consistent team in the conference.  Well,
their other 10 games, they played within 6.7 points of expectation.  There you go.

Among Greenfield's eight offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in seven of
them; Oklahoma grabs more total rebounds per game.  Among the seven defensive
stats, Kansas has the advantage in just two of them, namely offensive rebounds
per game and steals per game.

Common Opponents
================
There is one common opponent, namely Wofford:

KU  +25 Wof at home (+21 neutral court)
OU  +11 Wof at home ( +7 neutral court)
KU  +18 OU  at home (+14 neutral court)

That bodes well for Kansas.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Christian James (guard)
most points        Christian James (guard)
most rebounds      Brady Manek (forward)
most assists       Aaron Calixte (guard)
most steals        Jamal Bieniemy (guard)
most blocks        Jamuni McNeace (center)
most turnovers     Christian James (guard) / Aaron Calixte (guard)
most fouls         Jamuni McNeace (center)

Center Jamuni McNeace is recovering from a right ankle sprain and is not
expected to play.  Forward Kur Kuath is probably out for the season with
a back injury.  

                                                          11-1            11-1
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas         Oklahoma
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall         +6.25   78   72                #  7   #  6     # 17   #  7 
Sagarin Predictor       +6.15   78   72       76.7     #  8   #  6     # 18   #  7 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +7.31   78   71                #  5   #  6     # 15   #  7 
Sagarin Recent Games    +4.49   77   73                #  6   #  6     # 11   #  7 
Sagarin Eigenvector     +3.95   77   73       65       
Massey                  +6.00   80   74       70       #  4   #  1     #  9   #  4
Pomeroy                 +8.07   79   71                #  6   # 17     # 24   #  9
Greenfield              +8.50   80   71.5              #  6   #  4     # 19   # 11
Dunkel                  -4.50   74   79                #  5            # 51                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +8.00   79   71                                           
Dolphin Predictive      +3.38   75   72       61.1     # 12   #  6     # 13   # 10
Real Time               +8.00   88   80       70.4     #  1   #  2     #  2   #  7 
Seven Overtimes         +5.00   76   71       70       #  4   #  3     #  7   #  9
DPPI                    +8.00   76   68       86.7     # 11   #  3     # 18   #  2
ESPN BPI                +8.30                 76.2     # 10   # 17     # 27   # 12
Whitlock                +3.71                          #  7   #  1     # 10   #  3
Colley Matrix           +4.64                          #  1   #  2     #  2   #  3
NCAA NET                                               # 15            # 17
common opponents       +18.00                                     
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                 +6.3    78.2 72.8
scatter                  4.2     3.3  3.2

Here is Kansas' season; the season record projection reamins at 24-7, with
projected losses at Iowa State, Kentucky, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  3 Michigan State              92  87    -2.78    +7.78
HOME   #111 Vermont                     84  68   +17.08    -1.08
HOME   #152 Louisiana                   89  76   +20.98    -7.98
NEUT   # 27 Marquette                   77  68    +4.76    +4.24
NEUT   # 12 Tennessee                   87  81    +1.21    +4.79
HOME   #105 Stanford                    90  84   +16.71   -10.71
HOME   # 69 Wofford                     72  47   +13.26   +11.74
HOME   # 51 New Mexico State            63  60   +11.59    -8.59
HOME   # 23 Villanova                   74  71    +6.55    -3.55
HOME   #195 South Dakota                89  53   +23.82   +12.18
AWAY   # 52 Arizona State               76  80    +5.24    -9.24
HOME   #199 Eastern Michigan            87  63   +23.95    +0.05
HOME   # 18 Oklahoma                              +6.15             0.767
AWAY   # 19 Iowa State                            -0.22             0.491
HOME   # 25 TCU                                   +6.89             0.751
AWAY   # 61 Baylor                                +6.18             0.726
HOME   # 31 Texas                                 +9.14             0.815
AWAY   # 53 West Virginia                         +5.43             0.755
HOME   # 19 Iowa State                            +6.18             0.736
AWAY   # 14 Kentucky                              -0.63             0.474
AWAY   # 31 Texas                                 +2.74             0.606
HOME   # 11 Texas Tech                            +4.00             0.665
AWAY   # 41 Kansas State                          +3.77             0.662
HOME   # 79 Oklahoma State                       +14.38             0.921
AWAY   # 25 TCU                                   +0.49             0.519
HOME   # 53 West Virginia                        +11.83             0.934
AWAY   # 11 Texas Tech                            -2.40             0.399
HOME   # 41 Kansas State                         +10.17             0.870
AWAY   # 79 Oklahoma State                        +7.98             0.783
AWAY   # 18 Oklahoma                              -0.25             0.488
HOME   # 61 Baylor                               +12.58             0.889

Here is Oklahoma's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
AWAY   #224 UTRGV                       91  76   +16.95    -1.95
AWAY   #178 UTSA                        87  67   +13.52    +6.48
HOME   # 69 Wofford                     75  64   +10.31    +0.69
NEUT   # 22 Florida                     65  60    +0.36    +4.64
NEUT   # 21 Wisconsin                   58  78    +0.24   -20.24
NEUT   # 80 Dayton                      65  54    +8.23    +2.77
HOME   #117 North Texas                 73  57   +14.91    +1.09
NEUT   # 72 Notre Dame                  85  80    +7.26    -2.26
HOME   #118 Wichita State               80  48   +14.91   +17.09
HOME   # 85 Southern California         81  70   +11.88    -0.88
HOME   # 33 Creighton                   83  70    +6.31    +6.69
AWAY   # 49 Northwestern                76  69    +2.08    +4.92
AWAY   #  8 Kansas                                -6.15             0.233
HOME   # 79 Oklahoma State                       +11.43             0.865
AWAY   # 11 Texas Tech                            -5.35             0.288
HOME   # 25 TCU                                   +3.94             0.648
HOME   # 41 Kansas State                          +7.22             0.782
AWAY   # 31 Texas                                 -0.21             0.492
AWAY   # 79 Oklahoma State                        +5.03             0.686
HOME   # 57 Vanderbilt                            +9.54             0.833
HOME   # 61 Baylor                                +9.63             0.821
AWAY   # 53 West Virginia                         +2.48             0.620
HOME   # 19 Iowa State                            +3.23             0.627
HOME   # 11 Texas Tech                            +1.05             0.544
AWAY   # 61 Baylor                                +3.23             0.621
AWAY   # 25 TCU                                   -2.46             0.406
HOME   # 31 Texas                                 +6.19             0.724
AWAY   # 19 Iowa State                            -3.17             0.376
HOME   # 53 West Virginia                         +8.88             0.864
HOME   #  8 Kansas                                +0.25             0.512
AWAY   # 41 Kansas State                          +0.82             0.535